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I thought I would start a discussion centered on the Caribbean basin, seeing how this area will likely be the focus for the next several days. There is a lot of waves worth watching. My own thoughts are posted below. |
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I have been particularly watching the area of convection in the Central Caribbean. Although the shear is somewhat strong in this region, it continues to produce plenty of storms. I personally give this area a slightly greater chance of developing than its neighbor to the east of it, which is only at 10%. Why I give it a better chance than the area that the NHC has highlighted, is due to the Central Caribbean wave being totally removed from the SAL. Also, from what I can tell, the shear is forecast to weaken some in a day or two for this wave. I think the area near the Lesser Antilles will have decent shot at development in about 2 or 3 days, though. |