MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Sep 18 2010 09:24 AM
Western Gulf of Mexico?

The Western GoM, post Karl, grabs my attention this AM. Development there, or will it move over land before anything significant happens?

Jasonch
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Sep 18 2010 11:48 AM
Re: Western Gulf of Mexico?

I see the big blow up of storms you are talking about. With the high pressure to the north I'm sure it will just move inland. It will be nothing

MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Sep 18 2010 12:25 PM
Re: Western Gulf of Mexico?

It's apparently moving to the NNW toward mouth of the the Rio Grande. Surface wind obs indicate some broad cyclonic turning.

WesnWylie
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 18 2010 01:32 PM
Re: Western Gulf of Mexico?

I think the NHC will highlight this area in the upcoming 1:00 p.m. CDT outlook. The upper-level winds should steer this disturbance toward the northwest rather than west, so if it were to organize which is still uncertain it would affect parts of Texas.

berrywr
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Sep 18 2010 09:01 PM
Re: Western Gulf of Mexico?

It is an inverted trough aka easterly wave. The axis is onshore; however all the action with easterly waves are generally behind the axis. It is reflected aloft up to 500 mbs but no higher; a ridge dominates the entire area at 300 mbs which is centered at that level about 150 miles SE of Brownsville with a small shortwave moving west to east currently over central Texas moving east. As you see on satellite there is excellent divergence aloft and one might think there's something down there with outflow aloft.


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