Above: 99L IR Aug16 2018 0300z

A convectively active tropical wave centered about 850 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands is beginning to show signs of some potential for developing during the remainder of the week, but may run into a less favorable shear environment if/once in the eastern Caribbean. This feature is now being tracked as an Invest, 99L, and NHC has an placed an initial bid of 20% odds for tropical cyclogenesis within 5 days, which could be conservative.

This disturbance has all but fallen apart and its remnants are now moving into "the graveyard" of the eastern Caribbean. As development is now very unlikely, the post is being moved to "Tropics Today." It is worth noting that scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will impact the islands of the Caribbean as this wave passes through. If it begins to look as if cyclogenesis becomes possible again (perhaps once in the western Carib) we may move or start a new thread. - Ciel