(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Aug 14 2006 07:20 PM


Scott's post has the right idea folks. During the morning hours, the low moving south was quite apparent..into the midday hours, there appeared to be that low and another to the ENE that was evident from time to time. As the afternoon progressed, the general appearance has been that these two lows evolved into a broad elongated low pressure trough. Just about where Scott mentioned is a bout the middle of that area and is the place where I'd expect something has the best shot at consolidation. Maybe just a tad SW of there, but pretty close.

As for motion, I things Jeff Master's did an excellent job of breaking down the possibilities from what I read around 9:00AM. It's really to early for me to try and speculate where this may end up by looking at the models. Apparently, it's something that's gonna be around to watch for a few days though.

Probably have a better idea from the models when something actually forms. As far as 94L that is something to watch. Hopefully just a fish spinner. How do they come up with the numbers (82L or 94L) for the invests? Anyone know?

Mon Aug 14 2006 07:45 PM
Re: 92-94

That is always a pretty good rule to follow. For one thing, the models have attempted to develop something further to the NE. A bad initialization, can mean a bust to the model. The best at initializing this so far has been the UKMET. According to the 850mb Vorticity, it has seem the evolution that has occurred throughout the day. With that said, is the end game of that model correct? Maybe/probably not. Established tropical systems are much easier to follow in the models. The NHC looks at all themodels as a guide and a blend of what may occur...Once again, much easier to do with established systems. Likewise, I'd say that nobody should put too much weight into a particular model with formative stage systems.

To answer you question about fish spinner, even with the spread in the models, this and the overall picture of the atmosphere would say no. If it sits there long enough though...who knows if it will develop or be a formidable threat.

Storm Cooper
Mon Aug 14 2006 08:35 PM
Re: 92-94

Look back in this forum to post # 68126..
"Derivation of Terms...." is the subject to look for...

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