Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Tue Sep 12 2006 02:27 PM |
Gordon Targets Azores - Helene Stays At Sea
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8PM Tuesday Update
Hurricane Gordon will pass through the Azores tonight. Here are some reporting stations:
Flores
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/LPFL.html
Horta:
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/LPHR.html
Lajes:
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/LPLA.html
Ponta Delgata:
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/LPPD.html
Santa Maria:
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/LPAZ.html
Hurricane Helene should soon turn northwest and north and remain at sea. Invest 95L has sputtered a little but faces a tough environment ahead, and a small wave has energized near 10N 52W at 20/00Z. This wave is moving westward under light northerly shear.
ED
4:00PM Sunday Update
Gordon is moving out of the picture as Helene is joined by new Invest 95L. More to come... Coop
12PM Saturday Update
As per the 11AM advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Helene has matured to become the 4th hurricane of the 2006 season. Satellite derived wind and pressure estimates are 75mph and 987mb (29.15inches) respectively. The forecast guidance for intensity calls for steady gains during the next 72 hours, as Helene will be traversing 27+C SSTs and encountering limited shear environment. Officially, she is expected to reach 90kts(~105mph), which is middle range Category 2 strength, in as little as 72 hours. Track expectations are subject to change due to models changing the ideas of the larger synoptic picture. Stay tuned! -John
11PM Wednesday Update
Hurricane Gordon has become the season's first major hurricane, now with winds estimated at 120mph. TD 8 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Helene with winds at 40mph. The future path for Gordon appears to be quite clear, ultimately out into the North Atlantic, while for Helene it is not as clear. Guidance suggests that it won't quite meet recurvature in the short-term, but the best bet is that it too ultimately recurves somewhere in the open Atlantic. Stay tuned. Nothing else in the basin is currently an imminent development threat. -Clark
11:30PM-Tuesday Update
NHC has upgrade Gordon to Category 1 Hurricane status. With an intermittent eye and better satellite signature Gordon was upgraded at the 10PM Advisory.
5 Day forecast track is presently to the east of Bermuda. Following the 'outflow tail' of Florence.
TD 8 has a rather large circulation and is expected to intensify over the next couple of days. High pressure ridge building to the North of TD8 will keep the system moving near due West for now. Forecasts are for the ridge to break down and allow TD8 to move into the Central North Atlantic.~danielw
11:40AM Update
Tropical Depression #8 has formed in the East Atlantic, there is time to watch this one, but most likely it will be another "fish storm". However, a lot could change in the time it needs to cross the Atlantic, so we will watch this one.
The Atlantic is Active, but nothing is very threatening to land. Could the rest of the season be more active?
Original Post
Hurricane Florence now making the expected turn more to the northeast and will probably soon become a Tropical Storm and then an extratropical cyclone as it moves rapidly across the open waters of the north Atlantic.
Tropical Storm Gordon, with sustained winds near 60mph, was located near 23.3N 57.7W at 12/13Z (my guess at the position - NHC has had the difficult-to-locate storm center a little further to the west). Gordon seems to be moving more to the north northwest and he is eventually expected to reach Hurricane intensity. Gordon should then track to the north and northeast - keeping the storm well out to sea.
Small tropical wave near 13.5N 47W at 12/13Z is experiencing some northerly shear and near-term development is probably not likely.
Invest 94L, in the far eastern Atlantic near 12N 22W at 12/12Z, will be upgraded to Tropical Depression #8 at 11AM by NHC. This system is likely to soon become Tropical Storm Helene - See related posts in the Storm Forum for some thoughts on movement and intensity.
Finally, one more large wave over the African continent near 12N 0.5E at 12/12Z should move into the eastern Atlantic late Thursday. This system has a good possibility of becoming a named storm early next week.
Lots of activity to track in the next two weeks.
ED
Invest 95L:
Tropical Storm Gordon:
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of Gordon
Helene
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of TD#8
| dolfinatic |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 12 2006 02:37 PM |
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Re: Probabilities & Possibilities
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We have td 8 as of 11 am advisory. Looks like this one could get further west than the last two. Nice to see we will have dropsonde data for this one so soon. THIS MORNING...DROPSONDES ARE BEING LAUNCHED FROM A DC-8 AIRCRAFT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM AS PART OF THE AFRICAN MONSOON
MULTIDISCIPLINARY ANALYSIS PROJECT...AMMA. THESE SOUNDING DATA ARE
BEING INCORPORATED INTO THE GLOBAL TELECOMMUNICATIONS SYSTEM
AND...HOPEFULLY...INTO THE GLOBAL MODELS TO IMPROVE THE
INITIALIZATION OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue Sep 12 2006 04:57 PM |
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Re: Probabilities & Possibilities
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not terribly often that nhc upgrades a t 1.5 system. guess they have a little more to go with than usual, though. the atlantic looks a little more like what we've come to expect in recent years than it has much of the season. florence will be departing shortly and gordon is of the same mindset (though it'll likely hang around through the weekend).
td 8/future helene is developing early and globals are showing enough weakness in the ridging out in the central atlantic that the best bet is another recuving system. historically speaking you don't see a whole lot of storms that form that far west making it across. we have days to watch it and prognosticate on whether it finds the break or saunters further west than most of the globals are showing.
there's finally some action, and it's turning out to be the kind that doesn't hurt anybody. not bad at all.
HF 1657z12september
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 12 2006 06:22 PM |
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Re: Probabilities & Possibilities
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Hanks correct....as I stated 2 weeks ago...Florence would be affected by the ridge and wont make it past 65-70W....everything coming off Africa will be heading NW till near 50-60W.....there is a strong trough over the eastern U.S. and there is no bermuda ridge....that will come back though in 2 weeks... but still nothing off Africa will make it cause of the troughiness then over the central Atlantic......unless something forms in the Gulf-Carribean...nothing else should affect the mainland....but in 2 weeks if something forms near the Bahamas it will be pushed WNW towards florida around the Bermuda ridge before.....The westerlys usually get down to near 30N by the 1st week of Oct.....I suspect in 10-14day the Carribean and/or Gulf will try to pick up on something with cooler air moving into the Lakes and NE... higher pressure up north should mean lower pressure down south of 25N.
scottsvb
(Actually it was one week ago - see the Forecast Lounge - but it was still a good long range forecast. Florence didn't become a TD until Sept. 3rd.)
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Sep 12 2006 07:22 PM |
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Re: Probabilities & Possibilities
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Perhaps this belongs in another forum, but I have the notion that with the alleged development of a stronger ENSO in October through the remainder of the season and the propensity for that to trigger low pressure in the GOM that a GOM developed system is a distinct probability before this all plays out.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Tue Sep 12 2006 08:05 PM |
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Re: Probabilities & Possibilities
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You're correct - I see where there is a good El Nino in place and its forecasted to remain in place for the upcoming winter. I think that this current ENSO event started last month and I'm sure that it contributes to the long wave pattern that places an upper level trough off the east coast and helps to protect the coast by turning storms northward. Don't ask me to explain why, but normally it takes about three months after the start of an ENSO event before any significant impact is seen in the tropical Atlantic - just can't recall when this event began. At any rate, the implication would suggest an earlier end to the season.
Cheers,
ED
| West FL Jess |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Sep 12 2006 08:16 PM |
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Re: Probabilities & Possibilities
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looks like the updated track for TD 8 has it curving similar to Gordon. A similar question might have already been asked but what is causing these storms to hook around and go back east and do you think TD 8 will follow Gordon and Florence?
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_08.gif
(Go back about 5 posts for your answer.)
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Tue Sep 12 2006 11:46 PM |
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Re: A Quick Look
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A glance at what was, what is and what may be...
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 12 2006 11:54 PM |
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Re: A Quick Look
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almost looks like Gordon is trying to form an eye....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb.jpg
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 13 2006 12:18 AM |
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Re: A Quick Look
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I agree. I think his bands (and very nice bands indeed!) are attempting to close off an eye at this hour. He looks as close to a hurricane as we've seen so far. It's probably just a matter of hours, if not sooner.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 13 2006 12:39 AM |
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Re: A Quick Look
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Almost looks like a picture out of another year, doesn't it.
I think this wider shot somewhat illustrates that the two features in the GOM (extreme northwest and northeast) are a little more active than perhaps they are getting credit for. While there does not appear to be any imminent signs of significant organization, the convection and troffiness has been rather persistent. If something were to congeal overnight during a nocturnal max, rather than all of this daytime activity, we might have something there to take note of, as well.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 13 2006 01:47 AM |
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Re: Probabilities & Possibilities
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Am I reading into the models too much, or does it kinda look like the high wants to push td 8 down as it approaches the weakness?
| docrod |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 13 2006 02:21 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Eight Forms in East Atlantic
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I had hoped the "Cape Verde" season was over from the behaviour of Florence and the "skirt chasing" Gordon regarding "tran-atlantic flights". I'll keep the shutters ready in the Keys but lets hope for a recurve soon enough to give Hamilton a break ... imho - eve - Rod
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 13 2006 02:33 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Eight Forms in East Atlantic
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GORDON MAKES HURRICANE... NO THREAT TO LAND
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006
...GORDON BECOMES A HURRICANE...FORECAST TO SPEND ITS LIFETIME OVER
WATER...
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...24.4 N...57.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 13 2006 02:38 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Eight Forms in East Atlantic
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Curious for the 11PM Discussion on Gordon. The storm is either being undercut by shear, of it is moving in a more NE'ward direction. Thought it was interesting that the models on SFWMD still show rucurve, but now have a definable kick the the NE in the middle. This is suspicious to see somany models doing that...In a recurve situation...It's gonna have to make a break for it in the weakness (and to the North, NNE, NE, ENE thing), or a little ridging will kick in later on. I've never seen this before, and I'm surprised that the models have this unamious kink without a more westerly component.
As for TD8, I'd say it (soon to be she) does recurve...even being this far south.
In other news, I'm not Meteorologist, but this El Nino type evidence I'm reading would lead me to believe the Atlantic season couldshut down by mid-Oct outside of a rougue storm or to....Similar to the quick shutdown of the '04 season.
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 13 2006 02:44 AM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Tropical Depression Eight Forms in East Atlantic
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Per 11PM Discussion...The westerlies in a few days will weaken...If so...Why the NE kinkin the middle of the models, followed by a NNW motion and recurvature? Decreasing westerlies should prohibit such a "kink" from happening, but the models look unanimous on it occurring. Maybe the models are underplaying a potential passage of the trough followed by a stall in motion in a few days. It is interesting...Please see attatched.
| amonty |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 13 2006 02:46 AM |
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Re: Probabilities & Possibilities
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After looking at most of the models, it looks like the main factor discerning TD8's track is going to be how fast or slow Gordon gets outta the way. He's going to be right in the middle of the Atlantic Ridge and a high pressure ridge in Canada that's going to be trying to push through. If Gordon takes his sweet time and lolly gags north bound that'll give us a better chance of TD8 to follow. Kinda like Moses parting the sea. And if he scoots outta the way really fast then the Atlantic ridge will build back in and hold TD8 down. The GFS is showing a rather strong high pressure over Canada that Gordo will be blocking. Of course placement of the ridge is going to be a major contributing factor as well. And if that weren't enough to rack your brain over, some of the models are showing a closed low developing over the N.C. coast in 72 hours. This is all going to be about timing and luck. Jeff Masters only gives it a 20% chance of making it, lets hope he's right. Things are really heating up.
| Genesis |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 13 2006 04:42 AM |
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Re: A Quick Look
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Quote:
Almost looks like a picture out of another year, doesn't it.
I think this wider shot somewhat illustrates that the two features in the GOM (extreme northwest and northeast) are a little more active than perhaps they are getting credit for. While there does not appear to be any imminent signs of significant organization, the convection and troffiness has been rather persistent. If something were to congeal overnight during a nocturnal max, rather than all of this daytime activity, we might have something there to take note of, as well.
There's nothing there in the Gulf.
You've got a big hairy cold front comprised of a REALLY vigorous low over Chicago with a "double drape" off both ends. The leading trough has buckled back and even retrograded a bit and now the trailing one is being driven into it. Its a setup for some serious rain all along and in front of the boundary, and we've been getting hammered all week.
It should push through around tomorrow night, and then things will cool off and dry out. The only way you get cyclogenesis out of this is if you get a cutoff low in the gulf from this thing, and I just don't see the setup for that at the present time. If anything you might get a cut-off somewhere off the east coast after the second trough comes through and overruns the first - that I wouldn't count out as a possibility somewhere around the turn of the week, but it'll be off the Atlantic seaboard if it happens - I just don't see the impulse dying off in the gulf that would leave the "remnant" to start something.
Now maybe in a couple of weeks, but right now all that convection over the gulf and adjacent land has no closed circulation and no real way for one to spin up with the surface features right in the neighborhood.
| hurricaneguy |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 13 2006 06:03 AM |
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Re: A Quick Look
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The CMC model run has the high pressure holding longer and puts the storm over the Leeward Is. The GFS also reflects on this as well.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 13 2006 07:15 AM |
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Re: A Quick Look
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I hope that no one arrived at the conclusion that I am suggesting something is now brewing in the GOM ("If something were to congeal overnight during a nocturnal max, rather than all of this daytime activity, we might have something there to take note of, as well.") - but perhaps to clarify, I might add that it is noteworthy that for the first time in a while the GOM has been convectively active lately - such that should conditions become more favorable, there's already some stuff to work with.
There has been a little bit of model support for a small closed coastal low - and one perhaps marginally on the warm core side of things - to form over the next day or two or three in the northeastern GOM .. most particularly the WRF seems to have been liking this. Other models seem to prefer to wait for the region of potential to cross Florida or Georgia and get over the Stream before suggesting anything could come of it.
As perhaps mentioned above, there have been a few interesting model gyrations along the path of both Gordon and 8. It's hard to believe that NHC's track for both of these cyclones aren't very close to being on target, but the fact that a few model plots are doing some wiggling and giggling does somewhat suggest that the door may indeed be at least slightly open for future adjustments.
| HURRICANELONNY |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 13 2006 11:40 AM |
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Re: A Quick Look
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Looking at the morning loops and reading the NHC discussion of TD8. I would find it hard to beleive that it's not Helene. Apparently they are having a hard time finding the center. So I guess it won't be Helene at 8am. But it sure looks like Helene?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-ir4-loop.html
| Doombot! |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 13 2006 01:46 PM |
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Re: A Quick Look
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Should extratropical cyclones have an eye?
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 13 2006 02:25 PM |
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Re: A Quick Look
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The latest spag models are not yet showing much recurvature. Is it too early to indicate...or does TD 8 have a better chance than F or G to make it to the U.S.?
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 13 2006 03:20 PM |
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Re: A Quick Look
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Wondering if TD 8 passed closer to the Antilles (as the CMC shows) if it might effect the US. I noticed storms that started where TD 8 did
that passed closer to the Antilles did hit the US mainland. Seems this one might have a better
chance of affecting Bermuda or possibly the Northeast.
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 13 2006 03:45 PM |
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Re: A Quick Look
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The end of that run looks like the start of the recurve for TD-8. Not much of a ridge left and with that closed low over the great lakes moving east don't see any chance of ridging building back in to keep it moving west or even NW.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 13 2006 04:16 PM |
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Re: anyone notice the wave entering the caribbean?
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I think everything at this time is speculation there are still too many factors in play; including how fast Gordon moves. I wouldn't start conversations of possible US hits yet, it only serves to unnerve people.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 13 2006 04:36 PM |
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Re: A Quick Look
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Yeah, TD8 looks to be a bit broad and diffuse, even now. There's some decent convection on the western side, but nothing much to speak of within the estimated center, or east. Another one of these broad tropical cyclones with multiple competing circulations - I suspect development will continue to be slow until this fixes itself, and as far out in the Atlantic 8 is, I would also guess NHC will remain perhaps a tad on the conservative side until there is more clarity.
Impressive eye feature remaining on Florence - she's really more of a hybrid than a purely extra-tropical cyclone, but certainly more ET than not. I would not want to be a mariner anywhere close to her coc.
Looks to me that the wave moving into the eastern Caribbean is experiencing some brutal shear, and I haven't noticed any cyclonic turning of the wave worth writing home about. Suspect that it might have a chance of something if it gets past the Graveyard without falling apart.
I'm a little more interested (a little) in the Bay of Campeche and also of the front and frontal low now crossing the northern GOM. NE GOM is clearly non-tropical, but could perhaps acquire some subtropical character over a couple of days. Should the front to the west wash out some and/or fracture I think perhaps a low of some initially hybrid nature could try to work up there, as well.
Gordon really looks like he wants to become a Major Hurricane - today - His eye is starting to clear up some more, all the while his entire structure has become much more symmetrical, with good outflow. At last check Raw T was up to 6.3 and climbing.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 13 2006 04:38 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Gordon and TD # 8
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Hi folks
Believe it or not...we are actually above normal now for middle hurricane season, 2006 ...
...I know , I know ..."What?"....
But it's true... Relative to last year it never would seem so but having 7".5" named storms by this date is above average. Intensities may have left something to be desired, but above average nonetheless.
As to TD 8's prospects:
The early stage TC has 2 concerns that we should be playing around with. It is good for our overall edification and confidence on CFHC that TPC has been acknowledging them as well, as of this morning.
1) Intensity has 1 primary mitigating factor but it is a gigantic one as far as I am concerned. As so many other systems this season have thus far demonstrated, SAL.. duh duh dunnnnn... is a reeper. Remember the information regarding SAL that I discussed with you and the forum and you will know why this is a big concern... How it fits here is that if you look at the Saharan Air Layers color-coded and current representation of this substance
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8split.html,
TD 8 is now semi-circularly "moated" off from the rest of the world by a plume of this garbage... TPC suggests it is unclear how much of this will be ingested and I concur. The deal is, a motion of 270 - or even 260 such as the CMC - would limit TD 8's proximity to this air mass and thus, less of its mass gets involved in the circulation field.. Also, the exact intensity schema is important here.. If Intensity gets going sooner, this would expand the PGF out into the surrounding environment and that would likely pull the SAL in... (the irony being, more intensity causes less intensity).
The answers to these questions can only be speculation for now.. We simply do not run Saharan Air Layer models, which is probably necessary because SAL is really not just dry air: It is dry air plus dust and this dust has other cloud microphysical issues that we won't get into here. I do not believe there is even physics incorporated in the dynamical model groups for dust presence.
Saharan Air in this context is a region of the mean sounding, roughly in the H850 to H500 levels, that has what is called an isothermal layer (I discussed this in recent thread). To review for those who do not know, isothermal meaning "= temperature" for the purpose of this Meteorological discussion. Equal temperature also means "statically stable", or, less buoyancy. This stablizing influence halts the convective processes that are all too necessary for sustaining TC growth. If this substance gets involved here, it is highly likely that it will impede on the intensity prospects in the nearer term... The question is, will it get invovled?
2) Track guidance is a little problematic beyond 96 hours if you ask me... The CDC GFS ensemble derived NAO values for the 120+ hour time ranges shows a fairly concerted bolt toward a +1.2 standard deviation, or positive NAO phase. Such a value is significant to suspect a pattern augmentation may not only need to be applied, but would also prone the middle range global models to higher error because models typical do perform a little worse during transitions... To extend this further, the PNA is progged to drop to -.8 SD and that only adds ferver. The westerlies may be reading to lift in latitude. It is being considered because it would require the genesis of deeper subtropical Atlantic Basin ridging, which of course plays a critical role in the establishing a longer duration of westerly motion vs a right bias.
The funny thing is, despite this train of logic, which is clad, the operational models are only ho-hum on showing the the persistent 50-60W ridge weakness being plugged... We'll have to see...
John
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 13 2006 04:53 PM |
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Re: anyone notice the wave entering the caribbean?
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today...
florence is out. i've seen them hang onto transitioning systems like that as tropical for longer, but it's a moot point whether there is still any warm core structure.
gordon is following.. albeit more slowly as the ridge tries to hastily rebuild. gordon looks as good as florence ever did, and will likely take the title of strongest of the season so far later today.
td 8/future helene is probably very close to tropical storm strength. circulation is broad and it will probably not spin up rapidly. noticed that the bams and a couple of globals are seeing it bending back to the left out at day 5. factor that in with the likely overdone recurvature bias the globals have and a couple of canadian runs and there is a possibility that it will move more westward and keep lower. in the long run, though, climatology dicatates that most early developers will recurve. the longwave pattern over north america is transitioning into one with general ridging in the east in 6-10 days, so say the model runs from earlier. the 12z gfs has a huge trough in the east, though, and lingers more troughing in the western atlantic. not a huge confidence builder.
anyhow. most of the globals spit another storm out of africa in a few. none of them really see the small disturbances in the bay of campeche and the eastern caribbean. both of those are being helped by diffluence aloft and have a long way to go towards any organization, but may persist for another day and become more interesting. there's also a shot that something hybrid-like will pop up east of the carolinas ahead of the oncoming frontal trough, and ride it up northward.
active as things are, there is no apparent threat.
HF 1652z13september
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 13 2006 05:04 PM |
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Re: A Quick Look
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It is not as uncommon as you think but the dynamic processes are not that same..
Granted, it may be harder if not arguable in this case to separate the two, becauase this is afterall extratropical Flo'.
There may be minute scalar tropical characteristics about the system as of this hour, remaining, but, the system has a classic but very powerful extratropical look to it...
There have been blizzards/nor'easters along the MA that developed a parcel of dry air wrapped into the core, and these regions will give off an eye-like characteristic. But in those cases, they are not dynamically produced the same way.
The "exact" why of how a hurricane eye forms is not entirely understood... But, the needed ~75mph wind may play an important role because the increase in angular velocity, it is thought creates centrifugal forces, which begin pulling outward at all angles from the axis of rotation; this CF is balanced by the combination of (PGF+coriolis balancing).
John
| weather_wise911 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 13 2006 08:59 PM |
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Re: A Quick Look
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No surprise in the 5 PM advisory.....
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES GORDON IS A STRONG CATEGORY
TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 13 2006 09:04 PM |
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Re: A Quick Look
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I think all eyes are on TD 8 now, since Gordon's never going to see land. TD 8's track was nudged a little south at the 5 PM. Still a long way away. Let's hope it hits some dust.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 13 2006 09:12 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Gordon and TD # 8
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the new projected path looks like it has the beginnings of td8 turning to the west come day 5. Out of curosity is the high supposed to build up again and push the storm towards the west in 5-6 days out?????
| weather_wise911 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 13 2006 09:17 PM |
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Re: A Quick Look
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Quote:
I think all eyes are on TD 8 now, since Gordon's never going to see land.
Thats the beauty of the storm--powerful, impressive--yet harmless.
WW-911
| stormtiger |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 13 2006 09:19 PM |
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Re: The little one got big and the big one never did
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Gordon formed from small low that fought its way through the dry air prevalent over the tropical Atlantic. Florence a much larger system had roughly the same course, but never did really put it all together in the tropics.
Now that Gordon is on the verge of becoming a major hurricane it has speeded up. How will this increase in speed effect TD8? Also now that Gordon is a more powerful storm, will it weaken the Bermuda High even more? Also note that TD#8 has possibly gained forward speed also. Will that increase the chances of it recurving poleward sooner than later?
TD#8 is more like Florence. It is another broad circulation and it too is fighting the Atlantic dustbowl. I think it will stay weak, but increase in strength only to reach the weakness in the Atlnatic around 50W. I don't think high pressure will have enough time to build back in behind Gordon since TD8 is moving West faster.
It's also nice to watch a mature hurricane out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean and not in the vicinity of the GOM or the SE coast for a change. Let's hope this pattern stays in place at least for the remainder of this season.
| Bee-Beep |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 13 2006 11:38 PM |
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Re: The little one got big and the big one never did
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Annular Hurricane. Gordon? Seems like it's taking shape to be like one. Really a small compact storm with a very well defined eye.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annular_hurricane
Would like to hear your perspective.
it has an annular look. the convective tops aren't very cold, though. like epsilon last december. -HF
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 14 2006 12:01 AM |
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rest of september
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wow... some subtle changes in long range models have it looking like a non-threatening pattern. in spite of those indices tip was describing earlier, the ensembles have troughiness persisting in the western atlantic and whipping everything that develops up well before the islands. same time, the mean ridge that was progged from the gulf out into the western atlantic is sort of backed westward into a flat ridge max centered over mexico/western gulf. haven't seen this pattern locked during the season since about 2001... but basically what it does (if it develops) is keeps a trough in the western atlantic that grabs everything east of the islands and hurtles it out towards the azores... and then anything in the caribbean feels nothing of whatever amplifications take place over the continent and just plow west to the pacific.
there's still plenty of doubt from this far out, but if this pattern comes to fruition we're in the clear through the rest of the month. the atlantic stops being a threat region pretty quickly after the first few days of october (unless it's something running straight north along the coast). might could just be smooth sailing until october rolls around and the caribbean becomes a little more menacing.
gordon is about to become only the third major hurricane in the last three years NOT to affect the U.S. or mexico at some stage or in some way. take those when you can get 'em.
td 8/future helene should keep us busy for days... but right now all the long range modeling implies that it gets too far north ahead of the big trough progged in the western atlantic. that's another ticket up and out.
the thing in the eastern caribbean is of some interest, but likely to get drawn up by the weakness left in the western atlantic.
just a little stuff in the western gulf right now. just a frontal tail that will have a really hard time doing anything.
only thing of real interest next few days should be the system currently forming along the mexican riviera. a good pile of modeling takes it into the baja and draws the moisture up into the southwest. official doesn't think so, right now.
HF 0001z14september
i guess it would be 4th.. forgot beta. -HF
| zacros |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 14 2006 12:49 AM |
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Re: rest of september
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Wow, Gordon is really a neat looking storm tonight. One question. I thought most storm elongated in the direction that they were moving. What has allowed Gordon to maintain more of an east to west shape while moving to the north?
|
danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 14 2006 01:04 AM |
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Gordon
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Gordon appears to be trying an Eyewall replacement cycle. However, something in the upper levels is preventing the completion of the cycle.
The Eye is as annular as I've seen. Especially in the Mid North Atlantic. The East- West axis of the higher clouds is interesting. As normally this would indicate that the pressure North of Gordon was causing the E- W elongation.
6 hour Dvorak loop is show a movement just East of Due North. So the High pressure/ elongation thoery is nearly out the window.
4 hour Dvorak loop
6 hour Dvorak loop
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 14 2006 02:49 AM |
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Re: Gordon
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well its a Major Cane.... Gordon! and we have a new TS
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 PM AST WED SEP 13 2006
...GORDON BECOMES A POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH 120 MPH WINDS...MOVING
OUT TO SEA...
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...27.8 N...57.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB.
TROPICAL STORM HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1100 PM AST WED SEP 13 2006
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION INTENSIFIES INTO TROPICAL STORM HELENE...
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...13.3 N...32.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 14 2006 02:58 AM |
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Re: A Quick Look
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I dont see where that cmc pic shows anything other than recurvature.
It is at the end of the high, angled towards the NW and a front/trof is moving down...
Maybe it would get closer to the US mainland but to me that looks like recurvature.
Mind you.. I really enjoyed looking at it... just think it proves recurvature in my opinon.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 14 2006 03:10 AM |
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water temps
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I still think from the latest water temp charts of the far east Atlantic that the water temps are a little below what they should be.
If this wave had rolled off in other seasons... even with the dust out there it would have been something else.
And, I have been watching dust storms since before it became popular but it's one part of the equation.
And, I think water temps have not reached the boiling point they usually are at this time of year there..and soon it will be no longer the CV season.
Awesome getting data that far out from the research project. Thanks for posting on it here.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 14 2006 04:07 AM |
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Re: Helene
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Alot of hopes on a possible threat from these systems forming off Africa coming close to the U.S. .... as I been saying.. ....Wont happen......there are waves of troughs with the seasonal change over the eastern U.S. and western Atlantic....Cape Verde season for us wont happen.....only thing now is something forming in the Carribean and Gulf over the next few weeks....
scottsvb
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 14 2006 05:05 AM |
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Re: Helene
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Quote:
Alot of hopes on a possible threat from these systems forming off Africa coming close to the U.S. .... as I been saying.. ....Wont happen......there are waves of troughs with the seasonal change over the eastern U.S. and western Atlantic....Cape Verde season for us wont happen.....only thing now is something forming in the Carribean and Gulf over the next few weeks....
scottsvb
Would'nt be so sure about that.. take Hurricane Ivan for an example, developed right around where this developed, and it's still moving west or WNW.. Went in the Carribean, became a powerfull hurricane and went into the Gulf.. not the east coast. Yes there is alot of troughiness over the east coast BUT... This can still head to say Florida southward without a curve. It's really that possiible and models are showing more of a westward movement.Don't be so positive on what you predict.
if you're talking about helene, ivan developed further south and west. there was also a big ridge locked in the western atlantic then, not so right now. -HF
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 14 2006 05:36 AM |
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Re: Helene
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Yes, TD 8 has little chance of being a US threat based on the setup provided by NHC, HF, and the Forum. Likewise, I'd like to remind everone of the 2004 season, maybe many of us in Florida were too weary to notice after Jeanne...Which happened in later September. An El-Nino formed in a weaker fashion and the season was essentially shut down after she hit Florida...Beyond October 7-15, 2006 at the latest...It is growing very unlikely there will be a US Landfall, outside of a rouge storm in the Carribean, Gulf or Bahamas based on previous el nino behavior. It's appearant that the next 3-4 weeks will define the US landfall aspect of the Hurricane Season and with waves developing early like Debbie, Florence, Gordon, and TD 8...they are missing the opportunity to shoot underneath the troughs, develop later, and affect the US. It's still too early to rule out a hit and preparedness with an all hazards approach for any disaster is key for everyone at any time...but from a standpoint of hurricane threats...this season may end up benign and if the El-Nino grows to a moderate or strong by winter into spring...It actually may affect the 2007 season as well. Time, as always, will tell. But everyone should be happy with such news.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 14 2006 11:44 AM |
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Re: Helene
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From the looks of the water vapor still shot, we have a loop of dry air approaching Florida. Nothing going on in the gulf and we have had at least one day without showers. Although it tried very hard last night. It is beginning to look like the potential for landfalling storms is coming to an end. The crazy thing about all of this is that Winter Storms act just like summer storms with high winds, down draft damage, and straightline winds. We have even had tornados along cold front lines that were very destructive in Florida. Helene, Gordon, and Florence will come back to us next year hopefully in rain and nourishment for our flowers. California could use a good soaking in places too.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 14 2006 11:58 AM |
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Re: Helene
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I think its a little too early to write off the rest of the season. We all felt that way down here last year and Wilma paid a visit. While, I will agree the conditions are not the same in 2006 as they were in 2005, I'm not ready to give up my hurricane supplies.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 14 2006 12:15 PM |
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Re: Helene
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I'd like to add my brief commens on the 06 season thus far.
First, we dodged a bullet in Florida with Ernesto mainly due to
the mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba. Ernesto was not even as
bad as a daily thunderstorm in most of Florida.
I am very very happy that we are experiencing the El Ninio effects and that the
developing storms are not making it to the CONUS.
We all enjoy tracking the storms and predicting where they will go. However
it thrills me that for the past few weeks we have all been able to relax and do other
things.
Thanks to all the regulars on the board who contribute even in the slower times.
And yes, it's always good to keep your hurricane supplies close by, just in case.
Hey, they can be used for other events as well as hurricanes.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 14 2006 12:38 PM |
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Re: Helene
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Interesting climatological note for my fellow mid-Atlantic trackers, the only Sep. storm to makelandfall from the current position of Helene was Isabel in 03:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200608_climo.html#a_topad
| charlottefl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 14 2006 04:55 PM |
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Re: Helene
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El Nino doesn't stop hurricanes from forming altogether, just makes it a lot harder for these systems to organize, but it doesn't mean that they can't. 1992 was an El Nino year with only 6 storms forming, but that wasn't the important thing about they 1992 season . Cat 5 hurricane Andrew struck homestead. All it takes is one landfalling monster to ruin a season. Now I'm now throwing up the red flags and saying run for the hills, just saying not to let your guard down cause storms can sometimes hit when you least expect them. Having said that hope the rest of the season stays quiet here in the US.
Hurricane Charley (Port Charlotte, FL 2004)
| inHISgrip |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 14 2006 05:31 PM |
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Re: Helene
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Has El Nino even hit yet, wind shear is still low in many places. Also, Jeff Masters said it would not be here untill the end of the season.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 14 2006 07:29 PM |
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Re: El Nino
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Really a topic for another forum, I am quite sure. Hopefully the mods will move this thread for us.
El Nino doesn't "hit." This is not a "storm," in any sense of the word, just like a "Monsoon" is not a single thunderstorm or rain. Using economics as an analogy, similar to a recession, El Nino is a process that takes weeks and months to come to fruition, likely got it's roots in place way back as early as April or May of this year, becoming a bit recognizable by June, and met the required definitions to be "declared" as of this month. As such, by the time those who do so let us know that El Nino is going to influence our weather, chances are we have already been seeing some of this for a bit.
El Nino also takes many weeks and months to wind down after reaching it's peak. It is entirely plausible that the current El Nino may not abate until sometime around the first few months of next year.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 14 2006 07:42 PM |
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Re: Helene
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It's always too early to "write-off" any season. To do so is fool's bait. While we have our first Major Hurricane of the 2006 season spinning the fish, and Helene expected to probably recurve as well, things do have a way of forming closer to home when we least expect them - even during El Nino years -
As an example, a quasi-tropical low has been forming this afternoon near 32.5N 72.5W that does not even have an Invest tag on it - imho it should - take a look for yourself. It is essentially a non-frontal, troffy, but looking increasingly warm-core, lower level low partially over the Stream with some pretty good inflow and suggestions of some banding. These things just happen. Also take Tropical Storm Helene (using a recent example a little farther out) - while there was some good model support for a TC to eventually grow out of that particular African Easterly Wave, this thing wasn't even tagged as an Invest but for mere minutes, it seemed, before we had our TD 8.
It's the peak of the season, and historically things can and do form fast, come fast, and surprise fast, at this time of the year.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 15 2006 12:06 AM |
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Re: Helene
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Let's see if we can figure this out, shall we. Three of the past four tropical systems headed for the North Atlantic. So far only Florence had any impact on land first hitting Bermuda then slamming Newfoundland. Debby stayed way out over the ocean, and Gordon will do the same. Now, what about Helene? Will she follow the same route of the others? Quite possibly that will be the case. The air streams that steered the other storms away from the United States haven't changed much... yet. I used the word "yet" to catch your interest. The flow across the Atlantic will subtly shift over the next several days which might open a window to the west for Helene. The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center will be watching for this possibility. In near term however, no storm is within striking distance of our coastline, and that will continue to be the case for days.
Story by AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist John Kocet.
ok now i know accuweather is usually weong and not reliable but i was wondering still, is the flow across the Atlantic subtly shifting over the next several days which might open a window to the west for Helene?
| ElizabethH |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 15 2006 01:25 AM |
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Re: Helene
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DANG! If you all get a chance and haven't already looked, check on the 18z GFS. This model run takes Helene right behind Gordon and Flo. But has one after another tropical cyclones rolling off the coast of Africa-all with in 144 hours out...
The good news is they follow the track of the previous storms according to this model run, heading them away from land...
Elizabeth
| harmlc.ath.cx |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 15 2006 02:04 AM |
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Re: Helene
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The reason for Helene curving out to to sea is the forecasted break that the global models see in the mid-to upper-level ridge that Helene is currenty traveling on the southern edge of.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 15 2006 02:13 AM |
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Re: Helene
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Yes I have seen that headline from Accuweather myspace and looking at the UKMET model... It may actually happen. Not saying it's gonna but we are in that season. The peak! Noticed that Helene may finally be getting her act together tonight. Nice spin, little vortex core in there. Looks like winds should be bumped up by 11 tonight. Now there is an opportunity for Helene to miss the trough as some models predict as of now. Most would like to curve it NW, only 3 curve it N then NNE. Usual but a westward track may occur as another ridge of High pressure may be building on top of the old one. Making it hard to turn. Though I don't see this going to NE. Probably Florida or Gulf as there is just too many fall fronts that just push these storms away from land. Not putting out bets yet. Still way out there but everythings possible. Especially with all the weird weather stuff that has been happening for the past few years.
Helene Strengthening?? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/sloop-rb.html
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 15 2006 03:20 AM |
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Re: Helene
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The 11 PM is out and the track looks better for making a landfall to me. It shifted down a little bit, and with the blockage over the NE moving, you never know
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 15 2006 03:37 AM |
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Status
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Helena has some short term issues to contend with...
I mentioned this extensively in a previous post and now we are seeing a condition that is related to it, and that is SAL.
The following URL shows the SAL layer as these bright yellow, orange and red regions:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8split.html
If you can located Helena in this imagery, she is situated middle-left. You can see SAL toxic air layer intermingling very close with the interior...
She needs to either finish ingesting this, or have her intermediate banded structures finish wiping it out... That is no easy task for either, because the stable nature of the SAL layer inhibits a good bit of the convection that would do that mixing...
The upshot is that the immediate "bits" of this evidenced substance are rather gossamer. The stuff farther out may be mixed out and/or moved onwards away from effecting on Helena's core before getting that involved.
Until she finishes defeating this poison, she will likely only show slow intensification rates...
As to the track guidance... The 18z GFS and its tropical based cousin the GFDL are good examples... They had her moving wnw and then nw by midnight tonight and clearly that is not taking place... There is still some question as to the ability of the ridge to weaken in time, as the GFS cluster insists... Moreover, there are other types of dynamical models that are offering a stronger ridge suggestion N of Helena, when she is nearing 50W... Not to get to deep into speculation but that is wavering a bit away from high confidence, re'curvature scenario in mind mind.
The likelihood of recurvature is still high, but the question remains to me where that will take place.
John
| hurricaneguy |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 15 2006 05:22 AM |
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Re: Helene
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Quote:
The 11 PM is out and the track looks better for making a landfall to me. It shifted down a little bit, and with the blockage over the NE moving, you never know
Looks to me the storm looks like it will miss the U.S. more than ever now. All models show the break in the high pressure and helene going on a fishing trip.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 15 2006 08:02 AM |
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Re: Helene
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Helene has really gotten her act together overnight. As of this comment (about 3AM CDT) she appears to have all but completely pushed out and away any remaining detrimental SAL, and has blossomed a very pronounced deep convective core roughly right on top of her center. Additionally, it also *appears* that she has been making an attempt to develop some embryonic buzzsaw-like banding. Really ramping up. Good thing for us for her to ramp up quicker than anticipated, as there have been some subtle hints among a few models that the ridge may be a little too strong for a weak southerly track Helene to punch. Even now it would seem that Helene is a bit west and south of where she was forecast to be, such that it might already be too late to expect her to be captured and whisked away for 100% certain.
Sure looks like Helene is headed to become our next hurricane - I would go out on a limb and say she wants to cane today, and might even just do it.
For entertainment purposes, take a look at the piece of energy that has broken off of early Helene and has been trailing behind to her east. This would be really something if it pulls a Gordon - or even close to pulling a Gordon.
Hmm 5AM is out.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 15 2006 01:15 PM |
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Re: Helene
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Helena bearly made the news this AM in West Palm Beach. But, he did say that some of the models showed it might head west after Tuesday (which would hit S, FL) and to stay tuned. I think he must have been sniffing the model glue.
Other than an "iffy" NOGAPS I don't see it.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 15 2006 03:55 PM |
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Re: Helene
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Quote:
...Other than an "iffy" NOGAPS I don't see it.
A partial explanation as to why the NOGAPs has this W bias is likely related to the model having a weaker system, such that it is not as vertically integrated within the predominant steering levels as the stronger versions of the GFS cluster (which includes the GFDLs in this latter sense).
A shallower system, as it is often referred....will subject the system to steering levels that are lower in the troposphere..
Currently, if you look at the satellite on water vapor and infrared channels http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html
...you can see a fairly concerted motion toward the W and even WSW in the vicinity of Helena and points W... There are other levels that we cannot infer from these vantages...But, what is apparent here when looping is a general motion toward the W and WSW along 15-20N. This is < 700mb stuff.
I would suggest comparing the first 12 to 18 hours off the 00z NOGAPs run, against what has verified since then for starters. Compare also intensity profiles for each interval. This would be to get an initial impression of where, if any, errors the model is already commiting... If there are a few, anything that takes place subsequently down wind (out in time) would have to be suspect.
John
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 15 2006 07:23 PM |
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Re: Helene
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Wow I never thought i'd see the NOGAPS this far south on the new run.. Shows it just miles north of the Lesser Antilles. Another shock is how the models are now moving it more westward to and there strengthening the ridge more tahn they did earlier. Bermuda may be another target yet maybe the USA now has bumped up to a good 10 to 15% chance of strike. Not putting any bets on it right now but interesting to see the models really jump south and move it more westward. It was supposed to curve NW today which did'nt happen. NOGAPS is not a bad model because it has really helped us out with Frances and Jeanne. This is all something to watch for the coming week.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 15 2006 07:42 PM |
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Re: Helene
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I noticed a bit of a shift too, but we are still too far out to have any certainty. Problably won't be until one of the Saturday runs until we have a clearer picture.
| Cat 5orBust |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 15 2006 08:30 PM |
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Re: Helene
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still way too early to see if this will be a threat or not, but there has been a little consistancy with every run of shifting the track just a touch to the left. regardless of any shifts in the track in the coming days, there wont be a solid feel for what the ridge will be like for several more days after. it is historically unlikely of a landfall along the coast but if that ridge builds in where the weakness was supposed to be then all bets are off. will be an interesting feature to see unfold over the next week.
| Solak |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Sep 16 2006 12:57 AM |
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Re: Helene
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No one's brought it up yet... I'm curious to see what that mid-level Low dropping SE out of Virginia will have to do with the Atlantic steering currents over the next few days. That, and the fact that Gordon has barely moved today. What effect will that have on the Atlantic High pressure ridge? Certainly getting stacked up out there at the time being.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Sep 16 2006 01:01 AM |
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Re: Helene
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Quote:
still way too early to see if this will be a threat or not, but there has been a little consistancy with every run of shifting the track just a touch to the left....
Oh I'd say the shift has been more than just a touch... Problem is likely that we are seeing such a large amount of room to spare that large correction may appear minimal at first impression.
However, for what it is worth, the 18z GFS has trended a little more than 500km SW of its 12z position... Not bad for a 6-hour difference.
12z 144 hour had Helene ~52.5W/29N,
18z 138 hour has her ~56.0W/26.5N
This trend is also a continuance between the 06z and 18z run, or 12 hour difference... That differential is:
06z, ~52.0W/34.0N
18z, ~56.0W/26.5N and plugging those values in gives a little over 940kms for a 12hour model differential...
You can see for your self:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?...&hour=132hr
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?...&hour=144hr
This is bordering on a demonstrative trend... That's obviously ~475km per 6-hour run and fairly large run to run corrections now over the last 12-18 hours. Meanwhile, the NOGAPS has persisted left, almost due west between 108 and 144 hours across 2 cycles of its own runs. Interesting...
John
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 16 2006 01:13 AM |
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Re: Helene
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Just saw a local report showing the prediction of Helena turning out to sea even sooner than Gordon. The way it was presented is that Florence Turned out at a more western longitude, with Gordon more Eastward at turn and Helena more eastward than that. At this rate the AZORES will get pounded by the next forming storm.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 16 2006 01:31 AM |
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Re: Helene
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The models are not certain right now for the most part. Plenty of time if anything were to really change...
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 16 2006 06:22 AM |
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Re: Helene
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models have been certain for a month out there!!! nothing will make it west of 65W...too much troughiness...only chance is something near the bahamas dropping off a front..or in the gulf or carribean....there is no bermuda high and this time of year..its usually the azores high... I mention the bahamas cause a weak ridging off the east coast might push a system back...but it matters on how strong a ridge will form this time of year....usually they last only a day or 2 before the next trough comes down from the midwest. Helene chance is less then 10%
(While I tend to agree with your thinking, when the GFS switches from western New England to east of Bermuda on the same day, I would not suggest that the models have been 'certain'. Try a lump of diplomacy in your cup of response - it goes a long way.)
| Cat 5orBust |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 16 2006 03:35 PM |
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Re: helene track
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i noticed in the latest runs some models move west to wsw over time before the turn to the northwest begins. if this happens it obviously would take longer for it to get caught in the flow and pushed back into the atlantic. if this process takes longer is there anything down the line that shows a high building back in and maybe pushing it closer to t he u.s. than what is forecast? http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
| Wingman51 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 16 2006 03:45 PM |
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Re: helene track
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The 11 indicates that Helene is now a Cat 1 storm and is continuing the NW motion - - will the Cold front the passed through the southeast this week keep her to the south and moving west or is there not enough strength to allow that to happen - - Just asking
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 16 2006 04:27 PM |
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Re: helene track
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Well looking at more models shift west and head it to Bermuda or even close to the USA. Very interesting but I knew that this would soon occur. The high is just too strong to pull it northward that quick. No bets yet... still needs to be watched and the East Coast should moniter it. Bermuda is the target though for now. GFS model takes it dramatically close to the NE coastline of the USA. Wonder if it will shift near or far next run? This is certainly a westward shifting day for the models. GFDL still shows the high weakening and turning Helene northward. I clearly don't see it happening anytime soon. Bermuda has another storm to watch.. Maybe the USA.. too soon yet.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Sep 16 2006 05:13 PM |
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Re: helene track
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I wouldn't say "dramatically" close to the NE in the 12z GFS -- it has it getting caught up in a frontal boundary and ultimately heading to Nova Scotia. That's 9 days out in the model, though, and a LOT can and will change between then. We have enough trouble figuring out a 3-5 day track before speculating on a 9 day track.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 16 2006 05:51 PM |
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Re: helene track
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i wouldn't worry about helene making it that far to the west. much of the modeling has a sort of blocking type ridge east of the canadian maritimes that kind of pulses up and down and causes the storm to wiggle west as shortwaves go by.. but once it gets southwest of the ridge max and through the subtropical ridge axis, up it goes. the longwave pattern just isn't right for a longtrack hurricane to get to the u.s. unless it stayed at extremely low latitude and weak enough to not feel the passing systems in the westerlies.
globals are showing subsequent development from waves off africa into the next week or so. this is not likely to continue for much longer, as we're into the middle of september and that region tends to shut down during the last week of the month, from east to west. we're getting into the part of the year where the caribbean/SE 2/3 of the gulf becomes the focal area for threatening development (though development can still occur over much of the central atlantic as well). globals show generally zonal h50 ridging across the western atlantic/gulf near 25-27N being established in about a week, with rising heights in the western atlantic. also synoptically lowered pressures and a slowly progressive longwave trough in the west. makes me think the last week this month may try to send something up out of the caribbean, sort of as a parallel to the two hurricanes (john and currently lane) impacting the west coast of mexico. there is nothing apparent right now... just a good hunch. there will probably be at least one repeat of the pattern going into october... and more amplifications into the east. it's sort of the last remaining threat this season, as the september burst of activity arrived when the longwave pattern had that familiar early-2000s look that resulted in so little activity prior to the 2004-2005 run.
so far we've got alberto and ernesto (and i guess weak beryl on nantucket) to show for 2006. it's more than halfway over and this has been a mild hurricane season. barring any late surprises or sudden bursts of activity, this could be the first year with no US hurricanes since 2001. can't really put any money on that until around mid-october and the end of the caribbean to florida climatological window... but it's conceivable at this point.
HF 1751z16september
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 16 2006 11:02 PM |
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Re: helene track
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Wow, talk about a west trend, the 18Z is much further west than the 12Z GFS, taking Helene into the Bahamas and about 75 miles east of Cocoa Beach! Not that I'm buying it yet, but it shows the trough lifting out quickly leaving strong ridging coming into/off the eastern seaboard at what, day 9. I want to see the 18Z NOGAPS. Be interesting to see the future runs. CHeers!!
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Sep 17 2006 12:10 AM |
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Re: helene track
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For what it is worth...the DGEX has a massive W shift too, and places Helene dangerously within 200m of the SE U.S. Coast in its 18z run...
I would like to call it to folk's attention that special missions were flew to sample the surrounding atm environment during the day today... It was commented by TPC that these were done primarily for SAL purposes. I believe it was probably so they could more accurately get a handle on intensity prospects, as the last 24 hours have not shown what for all conventional wisdom should have been a better intensity behavior.
Be that as it may..the upshot of these missions is that there is a denser data field thus available for the 18z ingest and initializations. That is intriguing because as I pointed out earlier in this thread, yesterday showed a very large trend W in the GFS solutions spanning 12 hours... The 24 hour change, which I did not post, as of 06z this morning had increased the SW position adjustment 1,300+kms! That is an interesting talking point that is being avoided by official agencies, and one that is of huge importance, particularly when we have a background +NAO signal out there... That signal would teleconnect to a 50/50 height rise tendency and now that we are seeing that in todays GFS runs, the W motion thus gains plausibility in my mind.
Before we get to excited, there is still nearly 200 hours in the GFS 18z run before this would be a threat to anyone... That means there is a very large degree of uncertainty related to assessing details in the flow that will have effects. Tonights runs will be interesting...
John
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 17 2006 02:21 AM |
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whoa
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just saw the 18z gfs. we're talking a whole different ballgame if the other 00z runs pick up on the huge westward shift it has shown. all that chaos in the guidance actually meant something earlier... later runs are increasing the ridging in the western atlantic and having the shortwave totally miss helene (it picks up the hybrid type system forming east of hatteras this evening). we've seen ernesto, florence, and gordon make funny recurvatures with little catches or bendbacks in them. could be this NAO positive thing tending to snap ridges back together to the northeast of systems, and blowing shortwaves out faster (as well as the longwave pattern with increasing troughing in the west/central u.s. and the tropical east pacific feeding amplification over there). helene still has very little chance of making it to the u.s. coast, but these recent westward trends may be on to a big switch in the expected height pattern off the east coast.
the western gulf may come of interest late next week as a tropical wave interacts with an amplifying trough. it would probably just break free and head west under rebuilt ridging anyway.
gfs is showing the eastern atlantic generate another storm this upcoming week, and is still trying to develop waves to the end of the month. i have a hunch they will develop slower than shown, as the season is getting later... it's possible some of that wave energy will be trying to develop closer in or perhaps play into a caribbean development near the turn of the month.
if anybody remembers kyle in 2002... the storm that kept swerving westward and meandered in the western/central atlantic for almost three weeks... this could be an analog pattern at least briefly and give helene a good lunge into the western atlantic.. provided it still doesn't just snag the first shortwave and wheel up to the north atlantic.
HF 0221z17september
| Cat 5orBust |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 17 2006 03:21 AM |
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Re: 1100 discussion
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if you read the 11 discussion the NHC states that with the latest GFS run, it could be suggesting a significant change in the forecast track in the future, but until other models catch on they will adjust the track only slightly. seems like the potential of it affecting the U.S. keeps going up as each day progresses.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Sep 17 2006 03:27 AM |
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Re: whoa
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Could be the most brilliant statment said in all of this:
"could be this NAO positive thing tending to snap ridges back together to the northeast of systems,"
John
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 17 2006 04:37 AM |
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11pm discussion
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A lot to think on tonight. Excellent discussion on a difficult situation that still hangs so much up in the air.
Easy to say she will recurve as previously planned but she might recurve much further west if the models indeed catch onto something changing.
May stay up late staring at water vapor loops at this rate.
thanks
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 17 2006 04:47 AM |
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Re: 11pm discussion
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Yeah there could be a shift....more ridging is forecasted to form NW of Helene...but with another big trough exiting the east coast ...it probably still wont get more west then 65-70...I would like to see some more model runs and water vapor in the next few days. If this is a forecast....you guys can repost this in that lounge.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 17 2006 05:25 AM |
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Re: 11pm discussion
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hmm.....00utc GFS....still trending a little to the left... and now looks like the escapes route could close for helene... going to see if any other models start catching on.... I like what Hank posted above.... were going to need more runs to see what happens...
Looks like GFS is trying to block?
The 00utc UKM does the same with the turn to the west and the CMC... misses the blocking and allows helene to escape north...most of the globals i have seen build the ridge back though.... hard to tell what the trough coming across the central plains will be doing in 5-7days!
The NOGAPS... starting to shift too i think.....the storm kinda moves west then tries going north at the end... 00utc NOGAPS
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 17 2006 05:26 AM |
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Re: 11pm discussion
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FYI...00Z GFS Turns Helene West, but sharply curves her North and the Northeast well before the Bahamas...I'd assume a new trough has been intruduced into the western end of the CONUS grid (The model is now seeing a trough in the west that it could not see before). More or less, this means the show's over on the westward shift for now...Still, any turn is in the crystal ball time freme, but I doubt this will be a US threat based on the reinstatement of a turn on the 00Z GFS.
Link: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/
EDIT: Storm Hunter...was posting while you were...FYI, the model link goes beyong the timeframe of the FSU page you linked to...
| cieldumort |
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| Sun Sep 17 2006 09:32 AM |
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Re: 11pm discussion
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Helene is looking much, much healthier early this morning. The eye has become increasingly obvious overnight, and the overall internal structure is starting to resemble yet another major hurricane in the making. CIMSS, in fact, is already putting the CI at about 100 knots. That large eye is almost creepy - one sure can't miss it!
The models really suggest to me at least that Bermuda might be wise to start making preparations, again. Sure, the GFS is but one model, but it is often a pretty good one - and thus far is somewhat verifying.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 17 2006 03:47 PM |
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Re: Major Hurricane Gordon and Hurricane Helene
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Wow, it seems what if we have a hurricane and no one shows up. Interesting how Helene's track is shifting west. From what I'm reading no real threat to the US, but possibly Bermuda later in the week. Seems there are enough troughs coming off teh east coast to push her away.
Sounds like she's going to be around for at least another week.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 17 2006 08:08 PM |
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Re: Major Hurricane Gordon and Hurricane Helene
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gordon and helene have both gotten a bit stronger this afternoon. their inner cores have become better defined and such. helene is probably scraping the cat 2/3 intensity boundary... gordon maybe is back to 75kt. thing is, gordon has less than 48 hours left as a tropical entity and should 'let go' of helene by letting the heights build back to the northeast. gfs has actually been turning helene briefly wsw before the next shortwave comes by. exactly how that shortwave affects helene is a big ticket item. gfs on the 12z run has gone back to a recurvature path, only much further west (stalls the system near bermuda by late in the week, before sweeping it up). the caveat would be that a hybrid type system is spinning a couple hundred miles east of hatteras and waiting for the trough advancing across the country to draw it up... and it is looking ever-so-slightly more tropical over warm waters. it's in the middle of a deep layer trough, so it'll take some work to cross over. most of the models don't see it very well... if it develops into isaac or something it would throw a wrench into the modeling and probably mean somewhat more resurgent ridging for helene this coming week.
whether it's that feature or not, we'll probably see isaac soon either way. there's been a good bit of support for the next wave to emerge and develop.
still no modeling grabbing on to anything near central america, but pressures there are suspiciously low through the coming period, as typically happens this time of year when canadian highs descend and synoptically force rising motions and pressure falls. the pacific looks to keep active... i'm thinking that maybe something down in the western caribbean or maybe even more likely the bay of campeche will get hung up near one of these frontal tails. that's bound to happen once or twice every other year regardless. tis the season.
the storm crossing the country is energetic for this time of year... more akin to what we usually see in mid-late fall (usually colorado lows that head up into the lakes; i've seen these nicknamed 'november witches' in a paper before). it's sort of a tell-tale sign of fall just a tad early. with enso warm it wouldn't be a surprise for fall to come on rather quickly this year. this part of the country el nino causes mild to cool, rainy conditions relative to average. not terrible after a hot summer, but as it continues into winter it gets really, really old by, say, february.
HF 2008z17september
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 17 2006 08:12 PM |
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Re: Major Hurricane Gordon and Hurricane Helene
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I've been watching the hybrid develop since yesterday. We've got 95L up now. As stated, this may add a whole new dynamic to the model runs on Helene, not to mention other implications.
95L
| Major7 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 17 2006 08:47 PM |
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Re: Major Hurricane Gordon and Hurricane Helene
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Would the introduction of 95I into the scene pull Helene more westward, towards the path of least resistance?
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 17 2006 08:57 PM |
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Re: Major Hurricane Gordon and Hurricane Helene
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The first things that came to my mind - if it were to deepen and develop more than expected, it might want to create even more of a weakness in the ridge, and help Helene to recurve sooner. On the other side, if it were to induce shear over Helene, this could also weaken her some and, thus, she may be less inclined to hitch a ride. This feature has really not hit the models so much, just yet. Will be interesting to see if they pick up on it more with the next run.
| inHISgrip |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 17 2006 09:14 PM |
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Re: Major Hurricane Gordon and Hurricane Helene
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There are going to be 3 different troughs moving down to catch Helene. It's bound to get picked up by one of them. Even if the first one misses. That's what the models are in debate over. Not really IF it will turn later in the forecast, but when it will turn. I dont see much doubt about Helene making the turn north, it's just a matter of when. As far as staying on a west track, doubt it because of the above troughs mentioned.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 18 2006 02:49 AM |
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Re: Major Hurricane Gordon and Hurricane Helene
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Helene is the second major cane of the season. What worries me is the possibility that land will be affected grows with each passing model run. According to the discussion:
THE BIG PROBLEM IS IF A TROUGH... NOW
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE UNITED STATES... WEAKENS THE RIDGE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO BE PICKED UP BY A SECOND TROUGH IN
A FEW DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SPLIT INTO TWO CLUSTERS.
THE GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH WILL LEAVE THE
HURRICANE BEHIND WHILE THE ECMWF/GFDL BELIEVE THE TROUGH WILL
ACCELERATE THE HURRICANE OUT TO SEA. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS
TOWARD THE WESTWARD CLUSTER OF GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS.
I guess we'll see what ends up playing out in the next few days.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 18 2006 02:55 AM |
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Re: Major Hurricane Gordon and Hurricane Helene
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Helene is now forecasted to finally track west as the NHC just barely gives up on going with the GFDL. Just don't see it turning that fast myself either. A trough in the central US should lift it a bit north but may not pick it up and toss it out to see. Helene could be one of those storms that actually hit land from Africa! that surprises me. All of the east coast now needs to watch this storm carefully. NHC now says it may hit the USA. Though right now Bermuda needs to batter down the hatches yet again. Though I think the storm may just be to the south of Bermuda and head near the Carolinas then turn north.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 18 2006 03:45 AM |
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Hurricane Helene
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over the last day of two Helene was out to see on NHC's projected path and now they show a western turn in the 5 day forecast, is the trough along the East Coast breaking allowing Helene to keep move toward the United States? Is this now a potential threat becuase this is a pretty big change than even the 5PM update today. Someone fill me in i've been sick the last couple days not keeping focused.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Sep 18 2006 04:50 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Helene
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Short-term: I see Helene trending more NNW - looks like her increased intensity is helping her to respond better to the wake Gordon is leaving behind. If she gets much further north she'll cross 22.5 before possibly pulling the forecast WNW, and it's totally back to the drawing board for future track.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 18 2006 11:59 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Helene
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I think the 5AM was a good discussion on what, where and when. NHC pretty much covered all possibilities.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Mon Sep 18 2006 01:36 PM |
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Re: Major Hurricane Gordon and Hurricane Helene
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At last look it was still up as an Invest but it should be meeting up with a front pushing off... probably not much to expect out of it. Lets remember to avoid one line posts on the Forum...Thanks.
| cuidado |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Sep 18 2006 02:20 PM |
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Re: whoa
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Quote:
the western gulf may come of interest late next week as a tropical wave interacts with an amplifying trough. it would probably just break free and head west under rebuilt ridging anyway.
And what about EARLY this week if remnant of Lane gets out over water? (On the very edge of the sw coast of fl we got a fair amount of rain last night that appeared to be related to that no-longer epac no-longer storm.)???
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 18 2006 04:43 PM |
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Re: whoa
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Dr. Masters' read on Helene. Still only a 10% chance of EC impact, but a lot still unclear:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=518&tstamp=200609
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Sep 18 2006 04:46 PM |
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Re: whoa
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There's nothing left of the remnants of Lane. The surface circulation never made it more than about 50 miles inland, stopping its progress as it hit the mountains of western Mexico, while the upper level energy associated with the storm was sheared away and has been entrained into the frontal system heading for the eastern seaboard. The rainfall in SW Fla was unrelated to Lane, with those aforementioned upper level remnants currently located somewhere over the S. Central US, and instead was related to a diurnal flareup associated with a moisture gradient from the previous boundary that went through a few days ago.
Helene may be briefly turned further west in the short-term, but there is a significant and deep trough off of the US now that extends to about 24N and another one heading eastward from the central Plains that is projected to clear much of the US in the next 4 days or so. Unless something drastically changes in the next 4-5 days, including Helene nearly stalling in the central Atlantic, I'm not sure that this is a significant threat to anywhere but Bermuda at all. Those in Bermuda still need to watch it, though.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Mon Sep 18 2006 05:15 PM |
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Re: whoa
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yeah, later model runs haven't shown anything like that 00z sunday gfs track with the storm near the east coast. the westward track is now still only to near bermuda, with the recurrent troughing snagging the storm late in the week after the ridge fights to push it westward.
the first indications of possible activity in the western caribbean in october have shown up in the gfs in the last day or two. activity down there is usually pattern-induced, and can only come up if the ridging amplifies in the western atlantic and isn't just a zonal ridge across the gulf. no way to say with certainty whether the ingredients will come together.
95L, invest 26 on the season, was declared the other day. it doesn't look like much today, though. there was limited deep convection on the cloud ring during sunday, but it's all shallow stratus/stratocumulus swirled up today. some indications of northwesterly shear.. and it isn't getting a baroclinic surge just yet. might still whip up in a hurry as the front bears down on it and draws it up towards nova scotia, but there doesn't appear to be enough going on right now for it to make a tropical transition.
globals still more or less developing the new wave coming off. that'll probably be isaac by the weekend.
with helene major the hurricane season numbers are starting to look more 'normal', with 8/4/2 now the tally.. and with maybe 40-45% of the typical season left to go.
HF 1715z18september
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 18 2006 08:04 PM |
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Re: whoa
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Looks like Helene will be taking the open Atlantic route. Virtually all the 18OZ models recurve it.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 19 2006 12:57 AM |
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A few thoughts
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A few quick thoughts on Gordon and Helene...
Gordon: Heading out to sea quite rapidly, maintaining itself as a minimal hurricane as it does so. NHC discussion earlier hit on the nail: SSTs are cooling, but the upper level environment is cool enough to still support about this intensity of a tropical system. There's not a *lot* of midlatitude forcing impinging upon the storm quite yet, while its acceleration has led to minimal storm-relative shear upon the circulation, leading me to believe that the model depictions of ET are somewhat too quick in coming. Those in the Azores should be prepared for a minimal hurricane impact late tomorrow, and I expect the NHC to hoist a hurricane warning (as they hint at in the 8p Gordon advisory) at 11pm. It should gradually transition into an extratropical system -- a quite potent one at that, traversing into this largely zonal flow regime -- over the next two days or so. The end is nearing, just maybe not quite as fast as the models want to bring it about.
Helene -- it's easy to say this now, but the inevitable capture and recurvature of Helene is coming soon. These deep Atlantic storms offer us quite a bit of time to watch the pattern evolve before they become a threat even to Bermuda, and as time has passed the pattern has indeed become clearer. Under the transient early fall-type pattern we are in, it's always been more likely than not that Helene gets turned up before it gets to the US -- just a matter or where it happens. The NHC forecast of before 60W looks pretty good.
The key players are a strong mid-latitude trough currently digging over the central US and a very deep trough over the eastern Atlantic, almost acting like a Rex (high over low) block. There are clear signs in the WV imagery tonight of the large-scale (longwave) trough associated with this block swinging around from the SW (extending into the Florida Straits) toward the east and northeast. As Helene nears this and as the central US trough slides eastward, it should get captured and turned north and northeastward into the midlatitudes through 5 days. Until then, a slow west-northwest motion is likely with the storm largely holding its own intensity-wise. With today's recon data, we'll probably see the peak of 125mph knocked back down toward 115mph in the best track.
Everything else: nothing close in is threatening development...the cut-off associated with 95L is too deeply embedded in a large-scale dry and cold core environment and should begin to move soon enough to preclude any tropical transition. Anything off of the coast of Africa is going to have to tango with an upper trough NW of the Cape Verdes; if it does so favorably, it could be in a diffluent upper environment condusive to development, otherwise it could be sheared for quite some time. Most of the models show some development at some point, though the GFS again suffers (as it did last year) from overdevelopment in the short term I think. Something to watch once Gordon and Helene are out of the way. Usual caveats apply -- if it develops out there, it's likely another fish. Don't think anyone will complain too much.
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danielw
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| Tue Sep 19 2006 01:48 AM |
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Trough(s)
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Clark, Hank and others have previously mentioned the troughs moving through the Eastern US.
While viewing the Eastern US WV loops I noticed that there are a few things in common between Helene and the troughs.
They are all nearly at the same latitude. Use the link below and notice the Eye of Helene, Andros Island-Bahamas, and the bottom of the trough in Old Mexico-South of Del Rio,TX.
Hmmm.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-l.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue Sep 19 2006 04:04 AM |
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late notes
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hmmm... the new wave is energetic, but hasn't come off 'consolidated' like the other quick developers this year. should take a few days, but chances are decent with the upper trough ahead creating a nice upstream environment for it. further west, southeast of helene is another wave that isn't moving quickly and has decent turning on its axis. the upper trough axis is pretty much over it around 38-39w. there is some convection, and the globals 'see' it but aren't showing any development. think it's the same wave that fed a weak low northward near the cv islands the other day... or perhaps it's one that was ahead of it? not sure, but am interested in how far west this one can get. getting any wave energy far enough west to not meet an early recurvature has been a challenge since ernesto. with a moderate upper ridge predicted in the western atlantic by the weekend into next week, anything of consequence underneath that would make things a lot more interesting. but, no model support as far as i can tell... aside from something unforseen in the western caribbean/bay of campeche i don't see any chance of a threat for the rest of the month.
95L low off the east coast is well defined but weak and nonconvective. as the environment becomes increasingly baroclinic it may start an organization trend, and will have limited time over support ssts. but i mean, hey... if it snows in new jersey, maybe it can snow in hell, too. slim chance.
HF 0404z19september
| zacros |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Sep 19 2006 05:01 PM |
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Re: late notes
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Interesting to see how quiet this board gets when there are no storms threatening the US.
Certainly looks like Helene will recurve eventually. However, the storm has taken on a due west motion over the past three hours. Clearly visible on the RGB loop. I don't know if it will be a long term trend, but it may put Bermuda a little more under the gun. Looking at the bigger loops (Eastern US), it would seem something would pick it up and carry her out to sea (weakness caused by 95L or by the trough exiting the east coast).
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 19 2006 05:15 PM |
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Re: late notes
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THe NHC accounted for this westward motion in their 11AM Discussion. Looks like only thing under the gun is some fish (fingers crossed).
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Sep 19 2006 07:04 PM |
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95L Gordon and Helene
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I wonder if Gordon can hold together to the Portugal Coast? It's possible but unlikely, particularly with the cold SST's....
Helene looks very fish spinning, though it could meander a bit, if the trough doesn't catch it... making it wait a little while before scooting to the east
95L has increased convection a little, but probably only has a day or so to actually acquire tropical characteristics. It'd have to get some concentrated convection before the NHC would upgrade it, but you never know.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 19 2006 07:34 PM |
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Re: late notes
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Quote:
... the new wave is energetic, but hasn't come off 'consolidated' like the other quick developers this year.
...aside from something unforseen in the western caribbean/bay of campeche i don't see any chance of a threat for the rest of the month....
...95L low off the east coast is well defined but weak and nonconvective. ....
HF 0404z19september
"Quick developers this year..." ?? Interesting. I was under the impression the opposite was true. These gyres have been tending massive in spatial area and that has apparently contributed to untimely core contractions.. It's been noted throughout the season.. What is interesting about this point is that Helene was forecast to detonate almost the moment she left the African Continent, but...that did still wait 36 hours believe it or not.. She was large, as well... My memory may be different than your on this but the discussion content of virtually every advisory for Flo', Gordo' and Hel', during their development stages, covered this point that largeness of the circulation would limit rate of intensification..
There is currently an impression of cyclonic curl over a large area out there, having an axis of rotation roughly 20/12.
Seems to be a seasonal tendency for large circulations at seedling stages. Large initial circulations will take painfully long to contract cores. This one so far, barring a coincidence in the cloud morphology, appears to be the largest of them all... In fact, it actually may be a vast area with enough room for 3 circulation foci..
No wonder the majority of the guidance is less impressive with the rate of maturation with this new TW than they were with Helene. They do develop it, but there isn't near that same zeal and unanimity that Helene had when her zygote was still far into the African continent. That was amazing! Some 96 hours before TW(Helene) even emerged near Sierra Leone their was large agreement on development and that pretty much verified exquisitely - though as mentioned, the models may have been a day or so too quick.
Anyway, I believe this will take a good bit of time to develop, too. It probably isn't much use to discuss tracks because there is too much uncertain about intensity (if there is even going to be that), let alone the rather ill-behaved nature of the Atlantic Basin westerlies so far this season... Recent model discontinuities conserning the larger mass fields of the Atlantic Basin make even estimating ridge strengths for any would-be system somewhat problematic - for now. We can take a stab at that when the time comes.
It is funny you should mention Gulf... I was just thinking that we ought to be watching the waters just off the SE Coast of the U.S. and drapage out into the Gulf regions with some interest over the next 10 days... We have 2 episodes of unseasonably far S displacements of frontalysis into these regions, and this early in the season that "can" be even more enhanced than the more typical October climatologies for that. The only reason why October has a favored region from the SE Coastal waters and throughout the Gulf really has to do with availability of delivering surface troughs to those latitudes increasing later in the season; thus, there is a climatological intersect where such troughs wind up over top still hot ocean sfcs. The oceanic heat content is larger now than it will be looking forward, such that a stagnated boundary may have more to work with. Short and skinny: If fronts are going to make it down there and stall over 86F water, ...the rest is intuitive. We'll see.
95L I believe is firing off convection very close to the core now, closer than yesterday and if given a chance could take on subtropical in characteristics during the next 24 hours.
...Though we may not be directly threatened close to home... there is an abundance of interesting facets to consider and watch for over the next 2 weeks..
John
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Sep 19 2006 09:06 PM |
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Re: late notes
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Two observations - somewhat related:
95L is looking much-improved this afternoon. Recent CI numbers up on SSD were actually 1.5 Subtropical and 1.0 Tropical. Still, it is nowhere near as impressive as the two best non-named subtropical cyclones of earlier in the season, but at the very least, 95L now rates as a disturbance.
Helene still appears to be on a more due west track than a wnw motion, and the recurve has yet to begin - although it is expected to imminently.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 19 2006 09:41 PM |
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Re: late notes
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Not HF, but by 'quick developers' I think he was referring to CV-type systems rather than close-in developments. We've seen a lot of the former this year (and not many last year) and fewer of the latter (but many last year). The CV storms may have been slow in significant intensification, but generally by 40-50W they had their acts together.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 19 2006 11:10 PM |
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Re: late notes
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Quote:
Not HF, but by 'quick developers' I think he was referring to CV-type systems rather than close-in developments. We've seen a lot of the former this year (and not many last year) and fewer of the latter (but many last year). The CV storms may have been slow in significant intensification, but generally by 40-50W they had their acts together.
Ah, in that context it works.
However, interesting notes about the significance of last year's CV season...
There actually were a fairly large number of them. There were 4, arguably 5.. but they had erratic paths and many actually were moving N when they were first depressions! ...Odd behavior in its self considering that in the depression phase they are shallower systems and tend to be involved in the llv wind field. Maybe they were frontal drapes way out there - interesting question...
Emily was a classy CV wave that went into the Caribbean, ultimately making landfall S of S Tx... I suppose we could argue what qualifies as a CV tropical cyclone; does it have to develop E of 30W for example... But, they were TWs from CV region so not sure of the usefulness of any such distinction...
Well...Helene's still tumbling W.. But, I have no objective reason to give up on the post I made above, regarding some synoptic points and expecations over the next day so we are in wait.
John
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Sep 19 2006 11:54 PM |
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Re: late notes
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Hope Helene turns north soon, starting to be concerned that this storm could keep west?
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 20 2006 01:11 AM |
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Helene track
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Checking the last two 5 PM postions. Monday vs Tuesday.
Helene has moved 170nm in 24 hours. Track heading of 302degrees True.
Or 32degrees north of due West.
That seems rather odd. Viewing Helene against the Weather Channel's grid overlay she appeared to be moving due west to me also.
Further checking. Previous track. From 5 PM Sunday to 5PM Monday.
190nm/ 24 hours. Track heading of 346degrees True.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 20 2006 01:22 AM |
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Re: Helene track
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There is definitely a discrephancy there from the perspective of what tools the public is allowed to see...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-avn.html
-Toggle on the Lat/Lon radio button on the top options... This is a close up grid as well..
This will clearly show the motion has been fluctuating up and down along 24.5 N, straight W...
I think this is pretty correct as a correction against what TPC has set... But, it is really ultimately not that important.. It just cannot get W of 60W given the synopsis of the unanimous model depictions... Barring some obscene permutation that happens once in many Blue Moons, the southern end of the trough is going to exert a deep layer southerly steering field in about 24 hours, along the current track of Helene.
John
| Tropics Guy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 20 2006 01:23 AM |
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Re: late notes
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No chance that she will continue moving N of West or WNW much longer. The trough to her NW is fast approaching with SW winds which will start to turn her NW then N starting tomorrow.
Thankfully for Florida's sake this is not a Andrew scenario where a massive high pressure built in to the north & there was no East coast trough present to save the day back in 1992.
TG
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 20 2006 02:03 AM |
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Re: late notes
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Quote:
No chance that she will continue moving N of West or WNW much longer. The trough to her NW is fast approaching with SW winds which will start to turn her NW then N starting tomorrow.
Thankfully for Florida's sake this is not a Andrew scenario where a massive high pressure built in to the north & there was no East coast trough present to save the day back in 1992.
TG
Actually it was supposed to turn NW according to the NHC. Storms do indeed have a mind of there own and sometimes they can actually prove mightier than the trough. Theres a 5% chance that this hurricane may miss the trough. There is a chance but not a good one at all. Just need to watch for that turn. The front to me looks a bit stationary on the bottom where Florida is. Some thing to watch.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 20 2006 02:54 AM |
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Re: late notes
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Quote:
The front to me looks a bit stationary on the bottom where Florida is. Some thing to watch.
Not uncommon for fronts to slow progress markedly as they near the latitude of Florida... In fact, in September ? That is highly likely... Moreover, a stationary boundary there would not actually indicate a reason to suspect track guidance. Stationary boundaries typically have 2 kinds of winds on their polarward vs equitorial sides. Those are either incident, or along the axis of the boundary.
In this case, the wind in the deep layer is paralleling the boundary on either side... On the E side, SW... There is your drive for gaining latitude...
John
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 20 2006 04:39 AM |
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emptying out
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gordon is down to its last few hours. shear is getting to be too much.. you can see the increasing asymmetry with time. it got quite a baroclinic kick, though, on its way up... that was on the substantial side for a storm that high in the atlantic. looks like the right quad of the storm is going mostly south of the azores, which is good. maybe a direct hit on the easternmost islands (sao miguel and santa maria). it's been a good 14 years since an actual hurricane made it up there (that was the 1992 version of charley).
helene... will keep us some company this week, at a safe distance from land. there was that one model flip flop that had it driving westward, but now everything has it going straight up and out. will be interesting how it is post analyzed (barring a shot of intensification during the next couple days.. which i don't expect due to it crossing upwelled waters), since the recon found it weaker than analyzed and it may have only been a minimal cat 3 or strong 2. gordon may still hold the seasonal mark after all.
95L has the look of something that just won't have time to consolidate. it should gust its way up to nova scotia and maybe cause some gales, but the respective convective core or spead convection with a broad wind max it needs to become either tropical or subtropical cyclone doesn't seem to be forthcoming. the nhc outlooks indicate they may pull the trigger on it if the convection flashes up and it makes a quick run... but that probably isn't in the cards.
aside from the slow/stewing type of action that may result from the weak low level westerly anomlies pushing out of the eastpac, any future action this week or weekend will likely come from the waves trailing helene. the one near the CV islands has the best definition, but convection isn't close to organized. the one near 43w has some convection and definition, but the convection isn't holding too well (and upper winds are marginal at best with the rear-flank upper trough from helene). modeling likes the one further east better. it also draws that development up into the central atlantic like the last three storms. i'd have to say that anything meaningful for land (aside from bermuda or the azores) would have to develop west of 45w at fairly low latitude and just amble along and not develop quickly. we may be in just a weak/new el nino type situation, but the storm tracks are consistent with such a circulation (early northeast recurvatures, strengthening mostly happening on recurving or northeastward moving storms). if something gets the US this season it will probably be the bay of campeche-northeast or western caribbean-north moving types. we're probably too late in the game for an atlantic-to-east coast storm.
ernesto was the one that could have hurt us. luckily it found ways to stay onshore and not come close to its potential. really if chris would have found the 'sweet spot' right ahead of it it may have been a real problem, too. end result of either, though.. was pretty much a can of corn. not a whole lot after watching the neverending assault of 2005.
HF 0439z20september
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 20 2006 09:43 AM |
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Re: AL 962006
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AL962006
| cuidado |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 20 2006 03:37 PM |
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Re: AL 962006
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I can't explain why, but I could guess. I can't even guess why I just now tried twice to post a url for you to follow (to africa) but they didn't appear when my post showed up in the forum???
Nevertheless, just click on the sattelite image on the upper right of the FLHurricane main page and you'll get one.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 20 2006 05:35 PM |
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Re: AL 962006
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As unimpressive as 96L looks at this time - this could end up one for us to watch closely, as it is starting out a fairly low latitude, and - more importantly - currently forecast to stay that way for some time -- although near-term I might actually be more drawn to what is going on closer to 12.5N 30W, which could be yanked NW here in a bit. Simply put, there seems to be more happening at 12.5/30. Another wiggle at roughly 12.5/45 looks like a candidate for Invest tagging if it holds it's own for another day or so, and gets some meat on it's bones. As HF discussed, it is currently in an unfavorable position relative to Helene, but this could be easing some in the near future.
Good viewing of these on the RGB zoom.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 20 2006 05:35 PM |
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Re: AL 962006
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climatologically speaking we shouldn't see too much more out of these african waves, as far as them developing west of about 40w, after this week. nevertheless gfs shows a repetitious cycle of development near and west of the cape verdes, with the recurvature paths all between 45-65w. some of this is probably spurious, but enough is there to believe there will be at least another storm or two (96L is probably one) that will develop in the eastern atlantic before things shut off. it's also possible that deteriorating upper air conditions (which is usually what shuts the area off, as upper troughing begins to hang off northwest africa near constantly by mid fall) will just lead to the waves developing more slowly, i.e. closer to the caribbean. of course, they may just not develop at all. always a possibility.
we're going to have a few days where the western atlantic ridge is rebuilt, but it isn't holding. nao is positive, which is probably why. usually the ridge holds up better with a negative NAO, with persistent troughing over the continent and not along the eastern seaboard. the ridging is zonal in nature, though.. anything that stays weak/low can maybe sneak through.
recurving gordon and helene should thwack far western europe pretty good over the next week. reminds me of the fall 2000. that big cool high dropping into the east in early october depicted on some of the gfs runs does also.
HF 1734z20september
oh, i see riff's post and clark's reply. got carted over to the storm forum... -HF
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 21 2006 03:39 AM |
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Re: AL 962006
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Lest we forget last year when there was apparently enough oceanic heat content to keep the season going through Zeta - combined with some uniqueness in the indices probably.
Anyway, there is a warm SST anomaly persisting along the CV route, which can be seen here:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.9.18.2006.gif
For the more general reader: Climate can burn us if we adhere to it too closely... It is meant for a foundation, off of which we find ways to get screwed for using it...basically. That's one way of looking at it. The other way is that climatology is the average of all those weird anomalies, regardless of extremeness, over huge lengths of time. The key is in the term "anomalies". Perhaps at some point an early October CV wave will develop and travers the entire ocean and strike somewhere unsuspectingly...because they believed in climatology. In fact, I do recall learning of some early November gales in Colonial times that sounded suspiciously like hurricanes to me. They just referred to them as "gales" and that was it. But they spoke of water surges and "unusually strong winds". Of course, those did not have to be CV either. Point being, nothing is impossible and having warm tropical E Atl SSTs seemingly destined to prevail this autumn, some extension of the season is likely.
John.
| saluki |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 21 2006 05:34 AM |
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Re: AL 962006
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Quote:
Point being, nothing is impossible and having warm tropical E Atl SSTs seemingly destined to prevail this autumn, some extension of the season is likely.
I find this observation particularly interesting in light of what the 00Z run of the GFS is showing two weeks down the road -- a cyclone moving north of Hispaniola and then bearing down on southeast Florida (keeping in mind that the models are notoriously unreliable this far out and quite literally are likely to be all over the map between now and then).
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 21 2006 05:57 AM |
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Re: AL 962006
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The one to two week outlooks from GFS have been prognosticating unrealized east coast hurricanes all season long. There's very little to glean from models out past five days, other than some *possible* larger-picture patterns --- IMHO, nailing the micro stuff that far out (such as a hurricane at a given location) is wishcasting at best.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 21 2006 11:20 AM |
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96L
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I don't see much coverage on 96L; anything happening? Everything seems weirdly quiet for the middle of September. :?:
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 21 2006 02:38 PM |
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Re: 96L
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The latest models on 96L.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
Interesting that there is some divergence among the BAM_ models. Aren't they usually pretty
much in line with each other?
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 21 2006 03:32 PM |
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Re: 96L
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The link you provided gives "Access Forbidden!"
J~
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 21 2006 04:58 PM |
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Re: 96L
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96 still looks like a real slow starter. The circulation - if one can call it that - is quite broad and diffuse, with lots of somewhat dry air and little in the way of convection .. even shallow convection is in short supply ~ pun ~
Helene simply has not recovered from her eyewall replacement cycle, and if anything, NHC - by their own admissions - have been issuing possibly generous advisory wind speeds on her. Scarcely the former major hurricane that she was.
Looks like, smells like, loops like 2006. Not a bad thing
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 21 2006 05:26 PM |
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Re: 96L
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Sorry about that...try this a click on Early Guidance Frame 1:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/index.htm
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 21 2006 06:15 PM |
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Neat tiny little vortex...
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Near 12N/48W is a tiny little vortex - not 96L. I wondered if this was there yesterday actually, but at the time some of Helene's outflow canopy was obscuring.
Not likely to develop given the current lack of convection but there is definitely a nifty little closed vortex evidence by the cu field at said location. It did at one time have some moderate shower activity, up until yesterday I believe. If this hold together on this W heading and enters the eastern Caribbean...might be fun to watch, regardless.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 21 2006 07:55 PM |
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Re: Neat tiny little vortex...
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Funny you should mention that. I just noticed it as well. Looks like its past the outflow from Helene. See a couple of small thundertorm clusters firing too (very small ones)
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 21 2006 11:26 PM |
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Re: Gordon Targets Azores - Helene Stays At Sea
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As we observe a subtle come back to Helene's intensity, while she charges to her North Sea death... a quick update on 96L:
Closer inspection of the satellite presentation shows a tendency for anvil debris to blow from S to N across the general axis of rotation, which of course is suggestive of shear in the area. There is a weak TUTT situated near 22N/43W and this is likely the culprit for said shear.
Interestingly, given the shallow nature of the still rather amorphous circulation, I believe this is allowing the system the W or slight W-NW motion. Notice the guidance that attempts to develop this quicker tend to also give it the NW component the earliest, which is then used to ultimately curve it up into the Reeper's arms. It may be that they develop convection deeply through this shear layer and atone for it by establishing this NW motion.
Given to the resistence to generate core-centered convection, this process may be premature in the guidance, when balanced against these observations. However, I do detect subtle increase in the cyclonic curl then this time yesterday. (It is noted that less closed circulation is being lifted in latitude as per the 18z GFS operational guidance. Poor initialization could be culprit but also the shallower nature appears to keep more W motion.)
Guidance unanimously damps said TUTT feature so it is unclear where the steering mechanism would come from beyond about 36 hours from now. Timing that attenuation, of its ability to exert a NW pull, along with rate of development of any TC will be key in assessing whether this gains all the latitude as quickly as the GFS cluster... Notice the CMC has much more southerly component off the 12z guidance.
John
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 22 2006 01:18 PM |
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Re: Gordon Targets Azores - Helene Stays At Sea
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Been watching 96L for awhile still not sure if its going to be somebody when it grows up. The NHC keeps an eye on it, but to my untrained eye, I can't tell. If it does become Isaac, looks like it will follow Gordon & Helene?
| cuidado |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 22 2006 01:40 PM |
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Re: emptying out
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Quote:
if something gets the US this season it will probably be the bay of campeche-northeast or western caribbean-north moving types.
"There was a little girl, who had a little curl... "
So, just like HF has been looking for, the little circulation dropped off by the unseasonably early cold front two days ago is now spinning prettily around the western tip of Cuba.
Does it have enough time, space, LLC to turn into anything horrid?