| madmumbler |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Mar 27 2007 09:42 PM |
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African Dust - good/bad?
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Someone please refresh my memory -- is African dust good or bad for us in terms of storms? I was thinking lots of dust was good for us in the states in terms of keeping storm development lower?
I saw on the ATWD that there's an area of dust reaching 50W.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Mar 28 2007 03:37 AM |
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Re: African Dust - good/bad?
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Dust is good and bad. Good in the sense that it can squelch tropical waves and keep storms from forming in the Atlantic. Bad in the sense that these features may develop further west, once they've escaped the throng of the dust, and more readily impact land areas. This is because the low level winds -- the ones that steer the weakest features -- are generally out of the east and east-northeast across much of the Atlantic, whereas the mid and upper level winds -- the ones that steer stronger features -- will often capture something before it gets too close to the US.
So, to answer your question...yes
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Mar 28 2007 06:33 PM |
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Re: African Dust - good/bad?
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A really good example is Hurricane Irene in 2005, that storm was struggling from TS force to Deppression, If I can remember I believe the meteorologist said it was all due to the dust. There was alot of dust coverage in 2005. Irene finally pulled itself together and almost impacted the Northeast but took a sharp turn near Bermuda instead. Shear was also its problem during that time.
| sara33 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Mar 29 2007 02:48 AM |
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Re: African Dust - good/bad?
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Does the next forecast come April 1st??? I should know this by now:-)
Thanks!
Christine
danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Mar 29 2007 06:28 AM |
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Re: African Dust - good/bad?
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This link is to a satellite photo of the pre Katrina SAL. Taken on Aug 12,2005 at 1200Z ( 6am EDT).
I believe the Tropical System in the upper left corner of the photo is Hurricane Irene. Mentioned above by Allan.
Pre Katrina SAL 12 Aug05 12z
| Hurricane29 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Mar 29 2007 02:04 PM |
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Re: African Dust - good/bad?
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Quote:
Does the next forecast come April 1st??? I should know this by now:-)
Thanks!
Christine
Depends which one your talking about? Grays update is the april 3rd which is next week followed by TSR on the 5th.
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Tue Apr 03 2007 07:18 AM |
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Re: African Dust - good/bad?
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In general, I have to go with Clark with this one. Recently, I revisited a video composed by Mr.McElroy of Charley's before, during and after of Hurricane Charley in Charlotte County. For those who still have it, you will notice in the satellite intro of Charley. In it, you will see this hurricane while it was a TD out by the Windwards. At that time, it had a large plume of dust just ahead (just to the west) and to the north of it. Charley slowly and steadly intensified in the Carribean, but became a monster in the Gulf...under a different set of dynamics. Last years SAL project by the Verdes was interesting to hear about. I haven't seen the results, but I'd propose funding for this research during neutral El Nino conditions and La Nina conditions to get a better picture of dust influence. Finally, I think we will need to rely on our meteorological researchers to make the relationships between this dust and the other overall weather patterns. If you have been tracking and researching hurricanes as long as I, you will know that there is no one true smoking gun...In reading the forecasts for next season, you will also not that nobdy mentions dust, but they all back their forcasts heavily on one indicator or another...It is further proof that this science has further to grow.
In the mean time, hope all is well and everyone is considering their seasonal preparednes plan. It doeslooklike a lengthy season at this point.
| madmumbler |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Apr 04 2007 05:14 PM |
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Re: African Dust - good/bad?
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Is there a link to that?
Charley's the one that swiped us.
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Fri Apr 06 2007 05:26 AM |
| Attachment |
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Re: African Dust - good/bad?
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I found a great picture of the dust around the early stages of Hurricane Charley. I cannot find Mr.McElroy's video online, but this picture really tells the tale.Charley was actually surrounded by dust...I wonder if this influenced/ helped to influence the storm's tiny diameter. (The photo is attached above)
| madmumbler |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Apr 06 2007 09:24 PM |
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Re: African Dust - good/bad?
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I would be very interested in knowing that if anyone knows the answer to that question.
One of the "good" things about Charley was his small diameter and fast speed. Had he been larger in size and slower in movement with the same windspeed, he would have devastated the entire peninsula, and most likely would have avoided being sucked into Charlotte Harbor. Which means he could have gone further north to Sarasota/St. Pete/Tampa and gone up the bay.
As bad as Charley was, he could have been so much worse had he been larger and slower.
We see summer thunderstorms that do exactly what Charley did with Charlotte Harbor, because it's shallow and warmer than the Gulf usually (because it is shallower).
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Apr 13 2007 05:09 PM |
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Re: African Dust - good/bad?
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Interestingly, one of the professors here at FSU had a theory that the dust could cause storms to do that...but nothing really ever came of it. It makes some physical sense and may be being studied elsewhere, but I think there are a few more basic issues to address before getting to that point with dust research.
| madmumbler |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Apr 13 2007 11:29 PM |
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Re: African Dust - good/bad?
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I just received this story from the NASA Science email today talking about dust and hurricanes.
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2007/13apr_dustyhurricanes.htm?list954164