| bamffl |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Aug 22 2007 03:49 PM |
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Forecast Accuracy Data?
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Maybe it's just my general opinion, but it seems to me that forecasted tracks are getting noticeably better. Are there any graphics around that blend the forecasted tracks with actual tracks?
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Aug 22 2007 07:26 PM |
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Re: Forecast Accuracy Data?
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What exactly do you mean, something after the storm that shows its track along with all of the previous forecast tracks? I've seen those before, but I'm not sure if they are available anywhere; they seem to be made for individual storms as needed.
| Brian B |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Aug 22 2007 11:27 PM |
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Re: Forecast Accuracy Data?
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Generally the verification information is more readily after the season is over. It takes a lot of statistical analysis to formulate the track and intensity error for the storms. Speaking of which, Clark, were you able to see the FSSE at all for Dean? How'd it handle the storm?
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Aug 23 2007 01:58 AM |
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Re: Forecast Accuracy Data?
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Brian -- the Superensemble is under major lock and key now; no one sees it here. I don't mind not seeing it anyway, for various reasons including the mess last year between the met dept. and FSU research as a whole.
| bamffl |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Aug 23 2007 03:30 AM |
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Re: Forecast Accuracy Data?
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I could have sworn that I saw (either 2006 or 2005) an animated graphic that had the forecasted track superimposed on the actual track. You may be right about it just being a custom creation for certain storms, though. I was just wondering if it was a regular product, which I guess it isn't.
As I remember, it was really pretty interesting to watch!
danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 23 2007 03:33 AM |
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Re: Forecast Accuracy Data?
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Something unusual happened with Dean. Due in part, or in full, to his near due west movement.
The SFWMD plots on the main page were easy to follow. The Extrapolated or XTRP line was close to the actual track prior to the first landfall.
http://image2.flhurricane.com/images/2007/storm4/plot18082007-2041.gif
GFDL did good at the 5 day prediction, but kept flip flopping between the Yucatan and Grand Isle,LA for a few days.
http://image2.flhurricane.com/images/2007/storm4/plot15082007-1402.gif
Here's the plot from the 16th, actually 10PM EDT on the 15th.
http://image2.flhurricane.com/images/2007/storm4/plot16082007-0156.gif
note:all the above links are time sensitive for Storm 04~danielw
Here's a table breakdown of what the various modle performances were.
http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/ops/AL042007/AL042007_perf.html