Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Wed Apr 09 2008 12:31 AM |
Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO)
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Just fyi - from the National Hurricane Center:
The 2008 version of the GTWO will be issued four times per day.
The 2008 version of the GTWO will include a three-tiered, color-coded, categorical genesis forecast:
The issuance times for the TWO and GTWO will be changed to 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC. In previous years, the Atlantic TWO was issued at 5:30 AM, 11:30 AM, 5:30 PM, and 10:30 PM, ET while the Pacific TWO's were issued at 4 AM, 10 AM, 4 PM, and 10 PM, PT.
Cheers,
ED
| Multi-Decadal Signal |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Apr 09 2008 08:42 AM |
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Re: Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO)
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Hurricane Experts Likely to Raise 2008 Storm Predictions Today By Demian McLean
April 9 (Bloomberg) -- Hurricane forecasters probably will boost the number of expected 2008 Atlantic storms when they update their prediction for the season today, meteorologists say.
William Gray and Philip Klotzbach of Colorado State University, whose predictions are closely watched by insurers, energy markets and local governments, are scheduled to release their forecast by 11:30 a.m. New York time. Their preliminary report in December predicted 13 named storms this year, including seven hurricanes, three of them major.
``We think the forecast is going to be relatively aggressive,'' Michael Schlacter, chief
| Multi-Decadal Signal |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Apr 09 2008 06:38 PM |
Re: Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO)
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William Gray, Philip Klotzbach - Colorado Univ
ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2008
Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses)
Issue Date
7 December 2007
Issue Date
9 April 2008
Named Storms (NS) (9.6) 13 15
Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1) 60 80
Hurricanes (H) (5.9) 7 8
Hurricane Days (HD) (24.5) 30 40
Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.3) 3 4
Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) (5.0) 6 9
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1) 115 150
| Multi-Decadal Signal |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jun 04 2008 06:13 AM |
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Re: Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO)
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June 3, 2008 Update is UNCHANGED from April 9, 2008
forecast. { 15, 8, 4 }
William Gray, Philip Klotzbach - Colorado Univ
ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2008
Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses)
Issue Date
3 June 2008
Named Storms (NS) (9.6) 13 15
Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1) 60 80
Hurricanes (H) (5.9) 7 8
Hurricane Days (HD) (24.5) 30 40
Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.3) 3 4
Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) (5.0) 6 9
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1) 115 150
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Jun 09 2008 01:46 PM |
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Re: Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO)
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I`ve got a question. Is it possible for a tropical cyclone to reach Cat 6 strength or are there natural contraints that would prohibit pressure dropping low enough that it would create wind speeds over the Cat 5 treshold. I`ve also heard some talk about a "Hyper Cane " . Is this science fiction or is there some truth that it is possible that a storm of this magnitude could one day form in the Atantic or Pacific Basins. I know we`ve had some low pressure records set over the last several years in both areas.......Weatherchef
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Jun 17 2008 12:32 AM |
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Re: Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO)
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There isn't anything beyond category 5, at least not in operational use; categories 6 and 7 and beyond are merely the realm of Hollywood.
Hypercanes are possible but not plausible. It's much more likely that, should the SSTs needed for such intensities be reached, that disorganized convection spontaneously forms across that region. This would serve as a throttle on TC development and, to some degree, the SSTs themselves.