MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Mine for this year is 16/9/3
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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I believe we will be at 20/10/5. I also believe the entire Florida peninsula to be under the gun as a hot spot for the season.
Edited by rmbjoe1954 (Sat Apr 23 2022 01:38 PM)
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 331
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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My guess this year is 18/9/5 As for Florida probably a good chance for the southern half of the state and the Gulf area. We'll see. Good luck !
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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As for now. 17/6/3…may change …
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doug
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M.A.
Weather Guru
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Posts: 108
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl
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15/7/4
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GlenJohnson
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 61
Loc: Waldo Florida
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I'm guessing 18-9-3. We'll see if I'm right.
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Be civil to all; sociable to many; familiar with few; friend to one; enemy to none.
Benjamin Franklin
Card carrying Storm Spotter
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EMS
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 55
Loc: St. Petersburg, Florida
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22 / 12 / 6 and I hope I’m way too high!
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JoshuaK
Weather Guru
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Posts: 159
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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24/15/7
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Kraig
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 68
Loc: Jupiter, Fl
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My season guess is 21/11/4
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2022 forecast 21/11/4; 0/0/0 as of 6/1
South FL Native: David ('79), Floyd ('87), Andrew ('92), Georges ('98), Irene ('99), Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04), Wilma ('05), Matthew ('16), Irma ('17), Dorian ('19) and Isaias (20)
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 295
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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18/7/2
Even though my total/(intensity call is on the low end, in agreement with others that it may shape up to be a bad season for Florida- especially the peninsula.
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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At this point with La Nina active. I'm going to go with 23 named storms, 12 Hurricanes, and 7 Major
23/12/7
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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vpbob21
Weather Guru
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Posts: 115
Loc: Ohio
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20/11/6
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jtrnr1951
Registered User
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Posts: 8
Loc: Ocala National Forest
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20,10,5
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IMTechspec
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 18
Loc: Orlando
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21 / 12 / 6
Hopefully it is not that high at the end of the season.
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 383
Loc: Plant City, Florida
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21-7-5 here. Watching Agatha from Florida like 
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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I expect another active season with overall anomalously favorable number of potential disturbances (waves, lows, etc.) coupled with lower shear, higher SSTs and higher humidity in the Atlantic in the aggregate.
As for US impacts, I anticipate a roughly 2-out-of-3 chance of higher than average numbers of hits, including that higher risk of direct hits. There also are some indications that the drought conditions in Texas could be loosening its grip, and perhaps there will be even greater numbers of TCs that form and/or move into the Gulf this year that aren't nearly as hampered by dry air entrainment from land in this region as looked more likely just a month ago, which would thus influence the overall intensity and rainfall totals for Gulf coast states impacted by TCs.
For season total numbers of TDs, Names, Hurricanes and Majors I'm looking for a range of
16-22 Depressions, 14-19 Storms of which 6-9 become Hurricanes of which 3-5 become Majors.
My best guess for this year's totals: 19 Depressions, 16 Names, 8 Hurricanes and 4 Majors
As a p.s., I lean into last week's Invest 90L being considered for addition post-season, potentially as a Depression or unnamed Storm, but my guess is not dependent on whatever happens there.
Good luck and have a safe season everyone!
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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19/10/4
Can we try to promote the site more, Mike? I'd love to see s'more peoples.
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 295
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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Mike's total named call (16) beat me (18), Mike was one over on hurricanes (9) and one over for majors (3). I was one under on hurricanes (7), but nailed majors (2).
Our calls for near average seasons were close, and my gut feeling about Florida peninsula being in play was spot on.
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
Edited by IsoFlame (Thu Dec 01 2022 07:25 PM)
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