Shear is back to getting the best of Bertha's valiant attempt to strengthen even more overnight, and is largely forecast to only increase for several days.
Bertha has likely peaked today, shear is unrelenting, most of the ensembles have it over Louisiana, and it still appears the most likely, south side is still pulsing with activity. A non nino year bertha would be formidible.
23/0z GFS may have forecast a fairly accurate initial state for Bertha as of 06Z Thursday. Something to keep in mind when considering the GFS for the remainder of Bertha's run.
In light of Bertha's current state and the weather being produced in the Gulf south of Louisiana and east of Texas overnight, the runs that bring Bertha up to a hurricane-force storm shown here now seem entirely plausible.
Hurricane-force winds already occurred earlier tonight within Bertha's MCV (though not necessarily representative of a surface low ~ we simply have no recon in there at this time).
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