jessiej
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Pembroke Pines, Fl
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18/6/4
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Katrina 2005
Wilma 2005
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Time to check the bearfat to see which way the fat molecules have alligned themslves...and the chicken bones to see what kind of juju the god of wind is up to...
14/7/4
slightly more than normal but from I agree with Ed's forcast and do not see much happening this year. Lets hope for another boring year. 
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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M.A.
Weather Guru
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Loc: Vero Beach, Fl
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14/5/1
Hoping for an uneventful season.
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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru
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Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
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19/12/5. Reason is La Nina will be almost over. The lasting effects of a La Nina will be felt during the heart of the season. SST's are looking pretty healthy right now. Shear should be lighter then last and the SAL should be lighter then last year. Let's see what happens and I hope I'm wrong. I was last year. 
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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15/8/5. A waning La Nina... seen this before. Probably start our real slow (maybe something real early, then nothing til mid-August), and then when the usual bunch starts calling the season a bust, we'll get started for real. Think the trend of out-of-season late activity will keep up this season. Not going to speculate on actual strikes, because the two seasons can have identical activity but totally different results dependent on how the longwave pattern is set up in the late summer/early fall. And maybe I picked 15 because some part of my psyche still dreads seeing Paloma out there. But Omar, Omar is okay. There's a little seven years ago reference for you old timers.
See ya'll for real in June, if I don't get carried off to Oz first.
HF 0045z17march
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Tak
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Altamonte Springs, FL
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14-8-4 but maybe we'll get lucky with less.
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bailey
Unregistered
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Post deleted. Inputs in this thread limited to seasonal predictions and rationale (if any).
ED
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Mar 30 2008 02:36 AM)
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twistergirl1980
Unregistered
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19/7/3 I think this is going to be an active season and even U.S landfall.
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typhoon_tip
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Ed,
Nice, clear, concise linear statistical break-down and very useful as a platform from which to base one's forecast.
The only thing I would build upon that platform is consideration for the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation phase states, which both have an apparent "split" correlation with the frequency of intense Atlantic Basin hurricane.
This may be important to some individuals looking at this information more discretely.
1) During warm phases of the AMO, the number of major hurricanes is significantly greater than during cool phases. The AMO flipped into its warm phase ~ in the mid 1990s, and since we have observed major hurricanes (111mph+) occurring with greater frequency. Thus, there could conceivably arise a small issue in the construction of the aggregate time series as they pertain to the analog years in question:
1971 (13/6/1), 1985 (11/7/3), 1950 (13/11/8), 1974 (11/4/2) and 1999 (12/8/5); relative to the current warmer AMO phase state. The reason for this is because during the period of the 1970s through ~ the mid 1990s, the cool phase of the AMO was in place; therefore, a potential error in interpretation in less than an a-priori analysis, exists.
A potential counter-point to the above paragraph, however, is the very fact that you mentioned; there has been an apparent recent cooling of the Atlantic tropical SSTs - showing rather pervasive, albeit weak, negative anomalies stretching between 80 and 45W by ~ 30N. We shall have to see if these modest cool signals withstand the higher solar irradiance interval of April 15 - June 1. My hunch is they do not and we see a bit of progression into the +AMO resume, which is heavily statistically favored in the background.
2) The QBO is a strong motivator on the variations in the amount of vertical wind shear between the upper troposphere and the lower stratosphere over the hurricane genesis regions of the Atlantic Basin. Moreover, the QBO has a very regular oscillatory periodicity, such that successful long range extrapolations of the mean stratospheric zonal wind anomalies can be made with greater than average accuracy for atmospheric phenomenon; and because there is a downward (loss of altitude) propagation of the stream, it begins to effect positively or negatively upon the upper tropospheric critical levels for those QBO events that time accordingly.
A brief primer for those who have not yet learned:
An east QBO phase (typically lasting 12 to 15 months) forces strong easterly winds in the lower stratosphere/upper troposphere over the TC genesis regions of the central Atlantic and Caribbean; this is a positive shear domain. The opposite is true for west QBO phase states. Weak easterly winds and negative shear domains pervade the TC genesis regions.
C/O Dr. William Gray, et al; Colorado State Univeristy
"Years of west QBO phases typically have 50% more named storms, 60% more hurricanes, and 200% more intense hurricanes than occur in east QBO phases within the Atlantic basin."
Here are the measured QBO values - per monthly - since 1990:
1990 -8.71 -6.74 0.95 +5.72 11.46 12.90 12.54 12.63 13.21 12.39 11.55 10.68
1991 8.71 8.44 9.00 10.69 3.82 -3.34 -10.36 -14.69 -13.96 -12.21 -12.27 -12.68
1992 -13.96 -14.33 -16.84 -17.79 -15.96 -15.34 -12.05 -4.75 1.30 3.94 6.33 8.19
1993 9.63 10.81 11.36 12.60 13.56 6.55 0.38 -1.20 -1.14 -4.04 -5.76 -6.00
1994 -7.64 -9.84 -11.29 -14.71 -18.03 -23.09 -28.65 -27.02 -19.07 -10.29 -0.30 5.93
1995 8.38 8.01 8.79 11.79 14.92 15.62 11.74 9.53 6.98 3.43 -0.77 -4.57
1996 -5.79 -6.90 -9.92 -11.08 -14.88 -17.03 -23.93 -25.85 -26.02 -23.40 -18.08 -9.86
1997 -3.57 1.94 4.77 9.74 12.37 14.50 14.85 11.69 11.64 9.91 5.74 0.78
1998 -0.85 -2.96 -4.92 -7.82 -14.08 -18.57 -22.97 -24.70 -22.12 -18.77 -12.22 -3.96
1999 3.09 5.84 8.59 13.51 15.56 15.23 14.11 11.91 11.18 10.62 6.01 6.43
2000 4.85 4.20 5.51 3.98 -0.99 -7.83 -13.13 -15.31 -15.52 -14.04 -15.07 -14.56
2001 -15.69 -15.53 -15.99 -17.73 -20.99 -23.31 -24.45 -21.67 -14.29 -10.81 -3.88 1.48
2002 4.64 8.00 9.32 14.03 14.16 13.26 10.05 10.60 8.90 7.66 4.46 -0.50
2003 -1.39 -1.44 -3.30 -8.57 -13.94 -18.01 -22.99 -24.64 -22.51 -20.34 -17.86 -11.38
2004 -4.84 2.61 5.45 10.46 12.97 11.75 9.96 8.82 7.22 7.84 4.41 2.27
2005 -0.45 -0.88 0.06 -6.64 -15.09 -20.59 -24.20 -25.87 -27.80 -28.76 -29.55 -25.04
2006 -18.83 -11.24 -0.38 5.00 10.36 11.47 10.75 9.10 10.20 10.86 10.10 6.21
2007 2.61 2.43 1.24 -5.18 -14.07 -21.34 -24.93 -27.41 -28.14 -29.05 -27.61 -19.48
2008 -12.43 -4.70
This elucidates rather nicely the very regular periodicity that exist between the negative and positive phases of the QBO. This allows for a higher degree of extended lead predictability of the QBO, based on past performance. What is interesting about this is that January and February are indicating a rising QBO modality, which said predictive measure strongly argues for a continuance and probable rise into positive phase states this March/April...and onward into summer.
*The QBO method may be more important for Cape Verdi systems. My own findings seem to suggest that activity in the Bahamas-Gulf-western Caribbean triangulate seems to have a separate statistical correlation to the QBO than intercontinental trafficking region. Why this is - a case for further study.
Conclusion:
The inclusion of the QBO factor, combined with the positively differentiated AMO, may actually argue for an increased frequency than the linear method would suggest. How much is a fantastically uncertain question, but my prediction is that we will see perhaps ~4 more per category than those predictions you leveled; which isn't too drastically different. 17/12/7 (2 category 5 storms).
There is no statistical derivation from the Sahal l moisture in this analysis.
Edited by typhoon_tip (Thu Apr 03 2008 05:25 AM)
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker
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I'm going with 13 / 7 / 3 for my numbers.
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Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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beachcrafts
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Loc: in Boynton Beach, Fl
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newbie here
14/8/3
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Hurricane29
Weather Guru
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ED can you please give us an update on how you see the 08 season developing as we are now 2 months from the start of the season.Thanks
(For all: Just a reminder to use the PM capability for personal messages.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Apr 06 2008 01:48 PM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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SST outlooks for region 3.4 continue to suggest a rather strong La Nina persisting through October. The average May/June/July anomaly is expected to be about -1.3C - which is a bit stronger than the previous projection of -1.0C. This would put 2008 on par with 1988 as one of the strongest pre-season (M/J/J) La Nina events ever recorded.
SST forecasts for July/August/September continue to anticipate a strong La Nina of at least -1.0C with Atlantic SSTs running slightly below normal during this same period for the entire north Atlantic tropical basin - except for a slightly above normal area off the west coast of Africa. A high activity season (14 or more named storms) would be a most unusual event under these conditions.
The analog years have been adjusted a bit, but not much. In order of precedence the best analog years seem to be:
1971: 13/6/1
1999: 12/8/5
1974: 11/4/2
1950: 13/11/8
No change from my earlier forecast of 12/7/3. Also no change in my previously anticipated threat areas.
I'll keep this thread open through May 31st for those of you who might still wish to include or revise your own forecasts for the 2008 season. Include your rational if you wish, however it is not required.
Cheers,
ED
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DMFischer
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Loc: Palm Bay
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I will say this year 15/11/6 and it would be one of those times I would not mind being wrong.
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Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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Hello all! My prediciton for 2008 is 15/7/4
The reason for my prediction is that La Nina may pose a problem as the latter part of the season gets underway with no cooling trends in the offing.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Looks like both Colorado State and Tropical Storm Risk are very close in their projections which roughly average out to 15/8/4 each.
They are usually close on the total number of storms. Last year they were off as were most of us on hurricanes and intense storms.
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doug
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Storm Hobbyist
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Newb prediction here: 16/7/4
Hopefully I'm wrong, though...
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leetdan
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14 / 6 / 2
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[witty phrase here]
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Recent trends in the forecasts indicate that the May/June/July average SST anomalies are not going to be anything close to the previous outlooks, with a current strong La Nina slowly evolving into a neutral state or even a weak El Nino by the end of the hurricane season. The M/J/J average Region 3.4 anomaly now looks more like -0.6C - quite a change from the earlier forecast of about -1.3C. Although the La Nina six month forecast is now hinting at a slight intensification (cooling) during May and June, a warming again occurs over the next three months (July - September). The Gulf of Mexico forecast is still expected to be slightly below normal from June through September, however, the northern tropical Atlantic is now expected to be slightly above normal - especially during July and August. While the details of a particular month may be insignificant, the trend is still worth monitoring over the next couple of months.
These new trends suggested that it was time to revisit SST climatology to determine analog years that had similar trends and values. 1999 was dropped from the analog list because in that year the La Nina actually restrengthened during the season. That recooling could certainly happen this year but right now that doesn't seem to be a likely scenario. With the anticipation of a less significant pre-season La Nina, a few other years were added to the analog list. In priority order, here is the restructured list of analog years for this season:
1985 - 11/7/3 (quite similar to the current and expected pattern)
1974 - 11/4/2 (similar)
2000 - 15/8/3 (2008 not expected to be quite as weak as 2000)
1971 - 13/6/1 (2008 not expected to increase like 1971)
1950 - 13/11/8 (2008 overall La Nina not as strong as 1950)
1989 - 11/7/2 (strength and flow pattern not likely to be similar)
It is worth noting that in 1985 there were 7 hurricanes - and 6 of them made landfall in the United States. The high risk forecast by CSU et al for U.S. hurricane landfall this season seems to be realistic. The analogs still don't suggest a hyperactive season, but they do suggest the possibility of a more dangerous one. No change from my earlier outlook for 12/7/3.
ED
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Hurricane29
Weather Guru
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(Post deleted. The PM capability should have been used. Only seasonal forecast numbers (and rationale if any) should be posted in this thread.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Apr 23 2008 11:41 AM)
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