ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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It looks like now Joe B. is saying if any development happens it will be around Florida and the east coast.This guy doesn't know any more than you or me.He's always bragging about himself and why I'll never know.Would anyone who posts on here please go and take his job from him?!?! The bottom line is that there will be NOTHING that will form in the near future because of the monster shearing that is taking place all through the atlantic basin right now.I will certainly stick with my prediction that we will not have a named storm until July sometime.If I'm wrong than oh well. Joe B. is wrong most of the time and he is an "expert"; by his measures. 
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Cocoa Beach Dave
Unregistered
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There is a 45% probability of a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season in 2002, a 35% probability of an above-normal season, and a 20% chance of a below-normal season, according to a consensus of scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), the Hurricane Research Division (HRD), and the National Hurricane Center (NHC). This outlook represents the mixed combination of weak El Niño conditions and ongoing decadal-scale anomalies that are more conducive to an above-normal season.
The projected 2002 activity is centered approximately on the border between a near normal and an above-normal season, with a somewhat higher probability of being in the near-normal range. The 2002 season is not expected to be extremely active, as was observed during four of the last six seasons (1995, 1996, 1998, 1999). However, it is expected to be more active than most of the relatively quiet 1971-1994 period.
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Cocoa Beach Dave
Unregistered
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Here is the link...
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/s911.htm
The story came out yesterday.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I think that Joe B. is a little more "educated" than any of us here. Except for the guy last year (Eric?) that was posting to us from Pensacola. I am not going to sit here and bash Joe B. just because what he says doesn't pan out. We here are no experts either, we can see what's going on but not predict landfall or anything else.
The latest sat pictures that I have seen look pretty active. Yes, there may be shear out there, but that doesn't change the fact that the activity is still there. Just hold onto your pants. We've got until November 30th to monger. Now is no time to panic. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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nickd
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 8
Loc: Florida
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Agreed Colleen. I fully respect Joe B. He's one of the few that tell it like it is. Unlike Dr. Lyons
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Well, to give Dr. Steve (or Dr. Ears) some slack, he is only allowed to report what the ALLOWS him to report. Same with John Hope. Joe B. goes outside that window, and so therefore he can be somewhat more flexible in what he does/does not say. But, I find him to be refreshing in the sense that he's not afraid to say "This is what I think is gonna happen" and when he's wrong, he admits it.
Of course, let us all keep in mind that these are only MY opinions, and everyone is entitled to their own. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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I know that the models are showing that something could pop up around the Bahamas,and I know some people are jumping on that idea,but I'm personally keeping an eye on the Caribbean for development.I realize that the conditions may not be as favorable in that area but for some reason my eyes keep going there every time I look at a sat. pic. I still feel that nothing will happen until July,but if I'm wrong,which I have been so many times before, I feel that it will be in the Caribbean where a system will get cranking.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Hey Shawn....glad to see you back this year. I agree with you, the GOM and the Western Caribbean are definitely hot spots. I just looked at the pictures of the Atlantic and Caribbean that AOL is using (compliments of The Weather Channel) and if I didn't know any better, I'd say that area could pop at any minute.
One question: anyone can answer this. What is the difference between a "registered user" and "verified registered user" and should I be insulted that I am not a "verified user?" 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Franky P
Unregistered
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Colleen, I think the meteorologist you referred to in your earlier post was actually from Panama City, at least I was under the impression that he did the local weather broadcast from the PC area. I can't remember his name, but his weather posts on were some of the best of the season last year. And I hope he joins us again this year when things crank up.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
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Good Question Colleen, another interesting thing about the new system is that you need to be logged on with your username, or else you have to create a new username as the system will not allow you to post using another's name not registered to you. This is good because now you can't send in a post under another person's username. I just posted as Franky P because I was unaware that I need to be logged on as Frank P in order to be able to use that username... cool
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CaneMan
Unregistered
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Sue look to be a broad are of low pressure forming East of the Yucatan. Any thoughts from the experts?
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Hope I posted this link right.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-vis-loop.html
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jth
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 275
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The guy was from PCB. His name was Jason. I hope he returns this year
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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I never was impressed with Joe B. I think he tends to go a little overboard with things. Just my opinion.
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gary
Unregistered
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Jason Kelly was his name
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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Looking at the Caribbean, I do see quite a bit of activity but I do not see any kind of circulation. I do not expect to see any because of the shearing from the westerlies that are running rapid through the entire caribbean.It is interesting to watch but I feel it will start to fall apart as the evening sets in.Everything is rushing off to the NE anyway.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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No expert, but current trough east of Florida lifts out, while another low dvelops where you say Cane Man, and lifts Northward over Cuba and up the coast. A lot of uncertainty with the track and intensity. Please reference long range forecast issued today. This could really rattle the windows along Florida and the Carolinas. Latest vis pix show some circulation south of western Cuba. Watch it like a hawk> Cheers!!
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Thank all...you're right, he was from Panama City and his name was Jason. Jeez...seems like YEARS ago. Frank...good to see you here, my friend. I noticed that as of my last post I was a "verified user" and I had 2 "stars" under my name. Did someone "rate" me? LOLOL!!
I haven't checked out the latest loops, will do so now.
Steve H...where the heck are you? I've never known you to be THIS QUIET...
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Gary
Unregistered
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Your welcome colleen. Now if I could remember my password I would feel a part of a hole. Gary hernando beach Fl.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
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Thanks Colleen, and thanks to all who remembered Jason Kelly'e name (jth, gary). I hope he (Jason) doesn't get made at me for forgetting his name... Heck, I have trouble remembering my kids names every now and then... hehe
I do remember that Jason had some excellent posts on the board last season, and by reading today's posts is still remember by quite a few of our regulars...
Nice to have professionals visit the board and give us their two cents worth.... along with all the regulars
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