ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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Well, guys, it looks like we have a lull in the action. I'm not very confident of development over the weekend. I don't really see anything that perks my interest right now that I would suspect development out of.I guess conditions are still prime in the gulf for something to come along and pop, but for some reason I just don't see it happening at this moment. Any thoughts?
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I notice that for the first time in ages there is moisture south of Cuba, thanks to the front that finally found a way to grab cristobal. Just interesting to see, didn't say it would develop into anything. And, seems the wave at the tail end of the trough is trying to battle its way westward into the bahamas towards florida. Does it have a chance?
Interesting board you have, different.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Watch 25.5 85.8. If anything's happening in the Gulf in the near term, that's where it's gonna be. Only AVN forecasts a closed 1010 south of the LA coast by Monday. Joe B. said in his discussion today that the European takes an impulse along the old front west (or something like that) early next week. So if anyone's got any action in the near-term (5-7 days) besides Florida, it's probably going to be Texas. But I don't really see anything of consequence at this time.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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Keep an eye on the central gulf!
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Shawn, this morning your post said you didn't think anything was about to happen...then, this afternoon your latest post says keep your eyes on the central gulf....what's changed? is there something out there?
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Not Shawn, but I'll comment...
The AVN, Eta, and UKMET have solutions over the last run or two for development of tropical lows near the over the weekend/early next week. The AVN develops a closed surface low in the next 24 hrs about 400 miles south of Mobile and tracks it NW over the weekend with a inland motion near Lake Charles early next week (this was the 12Z run....the 18Z run is similiar with a slightly more westward solution). The Eta is slower, developing the low Sunday, and moving more east...towards the Florida Panhandle (however, the actual "landfall" is out of the model's valid period). The UKMET develops closed lows in the Bahamas (tracking north towards the Carolinas) and in the Central Gulf, with a somewhat intermediate solution between the AVN and Eta.
Pretty interesting stuff...we'll have to see what happens.
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Jason Kelley
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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I still don't think anything will happen, but if it does it might be from the cluster of storms that is in the southeastern to central gulf. Just because I say to keep an eye on something does not mean I automatically think it will develop. It just means it is worth watching through the weekend. The first thing it needs to do is show that it can hold its convection for at least 24 hrs. which is what all of the systems so far this season have had trouble doing.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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If the UK Met turns out to be right, we will have witnessed a rare phenominon. This would be the second straight time that two systems formed in relatively similar places and from the same system at more-or-less the same time. For Bertha and Christobal, it was a surface trof that didn't make it that far offshore. This trof went further, but if it verifies, will also spawn twins.
If there is a danger from this setup, I think the greatest threat lies for the Atlantic coast between FL and NC. If something were to develop and hang out there for a few days, the steering would almost guarantee a US East Coast landfall. I guess we'll see what happens. But if anything does, remember where you saw it 
Steve
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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The main reason why I don't think anything will happen is because the models say it will.I've gotton to the point now to where I will believe the opposite of what the models are predicting. I know I'm not the only one that feels this way.They have, for the most part, done a horrible job last year and so far this year with getting a handle on these systems. Until I see an improvement in the accuracy of the models I will personally take them with a grain of salt.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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JK,
Tony Cristaldi said to say 'hey' and for you to drop him a line.
Steve
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Will do...on his NOAA e-mail addy...I have misplaced his personal one.
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Jason Kelley
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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His NOAA address? No wonder he defended the NOAA's revised forecast in a recent discussion. The whole time I was trashing it, he kept insisting it was a good forecast. LOL.
Areas to watch the next 2 days would be the NW Carib. and Central Gulf. RUC and AVN are the most bullish on the Central Gulf, but develop nothing of any real consequence. However, the convection south of Cuba near Grand Cayman associated with a wnw moving tropical wave could add some energy to the Gulf mix.
Steve
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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i know there have been a lot of big "blobs" off Africa this year that have done nothing but the one exiting now is teh biggest I have seen and has a bit more northernness to it than the other too low latitude ones.
who knows. some of the other itz lows/waves are starting to hold thier convection as well .
Troy(can never rememebr my loggin)
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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WWWHHHAAATTT 'THA H____ is that thing coming out of Africa? It certainly looks scary...
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Im new here i am 15 living in gulf breeze i love tropical weather but am not the best at forecasting. I read all your post cause i cant stand listening the weather channel or listen to cuz they is all lazy and always just shrug things off. but i enjoy reading all your post. last thing i just moved here from montgomery and have never been in a huriicane but i kinda want that expirence but with out all the losses that come along with hurricanes like deaths maybe a small cat 2 or so just for a begginers expirence. well isnt much happening right now but things might get interesting i hope they do before school start monday. and i am not saying i want a hurricane to hit here i just saying i want to expirence one sometimee i had to say that so none of ya'll jump on my back about it
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Bruce
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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That wave could be the "ONE" intense hurricane that Dr. Gray states we will have this year.
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Anonymous-Carl
Unregistered
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Where is everyone? Pressures in the central Gulf of Mexico have fallen about 3 mbs in the past three hours--interesting.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Hey Gulf Breeze,
You'll catch no flack from me. I want to ride a Cat-2 also. Welcome to the board. Register so you can get a good alias name.
Wassup Carl? I was watching the buoys this morning, and it was nothing big. How does the 3mb relate to yesterday afternoon's pressure falls? Because often in the afternoon, the pressure drops anyway. But the Gulf is looking much more active. If anything develops tomorrow, I'd guess somewhere between Lafayette and Galveston would be ground zero.
Steve
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Hurric
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
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AnonymousCarl,
Please share the source of your info on falling pressures in midGOM. Looking at Central GOM pic and looks like a run of the mill big blob so far. Still things can change quickly this time of year.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huloopvs.html
Hurric
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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west wind in the gulf
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