Anonymous
Unregistered
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I agree...really amazing. The 3:30AM MWD gives some hints at what can happen this week:
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...
THE MRF MODEL STRENGTHENS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ATLC WHILE
SHIFTING IT WESTWARD THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. THIS HAS THE
TENDENCY TO SHOVE THE INLAND UPPER TROUGH FURTHER W TO THE
CENTRAL GULF. THIS IS NOT A PATTERN WE WANT TO SEE SET UP GOING
INTO THE HEART OF THE HURRICANE SEASON. AND AS IF ON CUE..THE
AVN MODEL BEGINS TO SHOW WAVES BECOMING MORE ENERGETIC THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
If nothing happens during the next few days, I guess we'll start to wonder if This season will fall short of Gray's numbers!!!
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ir_anim_monthly.html
All is falling into place for the waves to begin to organize and the is one of them as shown in the link.The wet phase is now in the atlantic as shown by the green lines and that combined with the pattern setup of the atlantic ridge and the less subsidence in the atlantic so now let's wait to see if the peak of the season will bring the usual systems at this time or atlantic will continue quiet.
But I see a definite pattern change and will will see developments very soon as some models are showing.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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What discussion is MWD?? Can't find that one. Steve H. 
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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mwd site: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAMIMATS_text.html
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Thanks!! So the pattern is setting up. Should be an interesting few weeks ahead. Bahamas look slightly intersting this morning as Convection is building there. In the near-term a disturbance north of PR still has my interest as I see some low-level turning. Cheers!!
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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last night trouble areas were SE coast, 45w wave, SW caribbean. add another.. the wave passing 60w. it's still under the jet, but has a decent mid level signature and should eventually move out from under the shear and begin to slow down near the bahamas later this week.
with apparently having flipped, all of the central and eastern pacific activity should correllate with altantic activity before the week is out.
and as bastardi has been saying.. the ridge position has us in a strike pattern.
coastal low near nc associated with the upper feature over the southeast is probably the most immediate development candidate.. though not necessarily tropical. will see.
HF 1540z26august
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Yes HF, that one I said earlier that was North of PR. Actually it's east NE of there, passing by 60W. Gotta like its appearance as it will be our first candidate in the shoot. Cheers!! Steve H.
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Puerto Rico
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The north GOM has a surface trough and if it hangs out there it may spin something.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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MoparMitch440
Unregistered
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Water vapor does not look kind to anything in the (2:45 - 11:45 UTC). Everything looks way south, the furtherest south i have seen in years. Furthermore, westerly shear is in high gear off the south/central coast of central america pushing anything west if not WNW. Lastly, if anything should form, the trough off the east coast will move it well east of the CDN maritimes. So, I say nothing for at least 1 week. See how these factors change in the short term.
...
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squirralee
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 80
Loc: Mims, Florida
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Okay, what is
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garyb
Weather Guru
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Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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Subject: A9) What is a "TUTT"?
Fitzpatrick et al. 1995
A "TUTT" is a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough. A low is a that has completely cut-off. lows are more commonly known in the Western Hemisphere as an "upper cold low". s are different than mid-latitude troughs in that they are maintained by subsidence warming near the tropopause which balances radiational cooling. s are important for tropical cyclone forecasting as they can force large amounts of harmful vertical wind shear over tropical disturbances and tropical cyclones. There are also suggestions that s can assist tropical cyclone genesis and intensification by providing additional forced ascent near the storm center and/or by allowing for an efficient outflow channel in the upper troposphere. For a more detailed discussion on s see the article by Fitzpatrick et al. (1995).
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squirralee
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 80
Loc: Mims, Florida
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Thank you kind person 
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Alex k
Unregistered
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Impressive looking area of convection in the extreme southwest Caribbean. However, I see no signs of a circulation and I say almost 10 to 1 that it will die out.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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First really decent looking system off Africa...
IHS,
Bill
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Puerto Rico
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I agree that it looks the most decent one this year but will it survive is the question.As we know all the waves have fizzeled out as soon they had hit the water so let's see what this one does in the comming days.But as I have said I see developments more west and not so far east and that is west of 50w.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Wave Off AFrica looking like it wants to start wrapping up, as convection looks plentiful and some evidence of tumbling. Of immediate concern is the area at 63W/23N which has convection building up nicely now. But will they develop? If this particular disturbance decides to develop, it could threaten Florida or enter into the GOM thru the Straits on the weekend. Things SEEM to be picking up. Cheers!! Steve H.
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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still reforming in SW carib. but yeah.. synoptic conditions usually not right to get something to develop down there, as it would probably be inland in central america in no time.
have to see what comes together east of florida, near the bahamas later this week. thats IF the convection will stay out of the shear. east atlantic looks typically weak. it's always june out there this year. too far south, jet ripping up whatever peeks across 10N.
mcc running southeastward into east texas.. weakening as time goes by. have to see what makes it into the gulf.
convection is more active in the basin thanks to . now see if the shear will quit ripping it all up. kind of ridiculous that nothing has formed yet since august 15.
HF 1558z27august
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Eduardo
Unregistered
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It looks clear to me that there is a sheering enviroment very close to the possible disturbance located 23N/63W. What changes in the atmosphere would allow this system to possibly escape too much sheer and head into the bahamas, florida straits region? I appreciate the help!
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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There is a strong tropical wave that has moved off of Africa today and is GAINING convevtion OVER WATER. The system looks like it has a rotation just on satellite imagery. Nearly all of the models have picked up on this system, but they dissipate it as it nears the islands. *IF* it develops, it should strengthen as it nears the islands as models normally do dissipate new systems after 72 hours (specifically systems that haven't been classified). Also, as the wave moves west it appears that the upper-levels will become increasingly favorable for development. If this wave holds on or improve for the next 24-36 hours, expect some development. An invest could go up soon. Chance of development: 4/10
There is also a tropical wave near 64W and 20N. Slow development is possible as upper-level conditions become more favorable this week. Chance of development: 2/10.
Kevin
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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Agree Kevin this wave has a nice signature and plenty of convection and if it holds up it may develop.Conditions are improving in the tropical atlantic and the shear as models are saying will fade away in 72 hours west of 50w so this one has the best shot for development this season.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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