Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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The models (this is from the Discussion) are all over the place with this thing. They referred to them I believe as a "squashed spider" as far their tracks go. I just looked at the Melbourne weather loop, and I do not see any change in westward movement right now.
As far as the goes, I don't think they have a good handle on it either. Just read the discussion, and you'll see what I mean.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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LOL!
Did you catch the discussion of this storm? Stewart (NHC) called it squashed spider.
Thought that was kinda funny.
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troy2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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from 5pm #5 discussion In reply to:
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/06. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DIVERGENCE AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS WITH THE PATTERN BEING MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF A SQUASHED SPIDER. THE SHALLOW AND MEDIUM BAM
MODELS AND THE LBAR MODEL TAKE THE DEPRESSION INLAND NEAR ST.
AUGUSTINE FLORIDA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
MODELS ARE SPREAD ALL ABOUT THE COMPASS
love the squashed spider analogy. Weather makes much more since to me when explained as if I was 5!:)
troy
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squirralee
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 80
Loc: Mims, Florida
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People should not mess with mother nature...things happen for a reason 
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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looks like it has moved due east in the last few radar loops,maybe its just a flux, anybody notice it
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Chad
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Citrus County, Fla.
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I don't know...it's hard to see any possibility of northerly movement in the WV loops.
I'd guess it gets torn apart and just gives us a couple days of rain.
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Chad
28.97
82.48
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Looks like the center is relocating further east.
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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on a slow computer so not going to make a huge post. there isnt a whole lot to push TD 5 inland, so all of that gulf of mexico business is probably hogwash. probably drift near the coast, most likely landfall point i'd go with is st augustine. not big in the way of winds, but probably put down a good bit of rain with the slow movement. not going to be a bad storm unless it deepens a lot, and fast. needs a clear cut , not just the pulsing convection.
HF navarre, fl 2245z01september
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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#5. To me, it appears to be more or less stationary possibly heading slightly NW. I base this off of the Goes-8 Vis and IR (last 15 and 30 frames respectively. Apparently the convection was bulging west, warmed up, fired up again, now warming again.
So where does it go? I don't see it hitting Florida at this point. It is possible the system could brush the GA/SC Coast or further north in NC as a TS. Some models take it inland and move it west. I don't really see that right now, though 4-5 days down the road, anything could happen (big trof supposed to come down in 72 hours). #5 could just head on NE after stalling and become a fish spinner or a possible threat to Bermuda. #5 could also get stuck as per .
I'll be watching the Gulf as originally planned tomorrow thru Thursday. Some of the models have backed off on development in the Gulf, favoring generally lower pressure throughout the Gulf instead of tied to a closed system. I haven't checked out the long-range ETA yet. Eta has been most aggressive. For down the line, MRF puts stock in a fairly strong system off the FL SE Coast in 9 days. I doubt anything long-range from the MRF/GFS but I ran across it and figured it was worth noting.
Also worth noting, I just ran a check by Accuweather and JB is putting the Texas GC on notice with something like, "If I was on the TX Coast, I'd keep an eye open." I've had mine opened and focused.
"...with my good eye closed." - Soundgarden
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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57497479
Weather Master
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Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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actually I see that or at least that is what I thought I was seeing?????
I was searching for another satellite loop thought that something was wrong . looks like it is being pulled somewhat to the East.
Convection does not look as good either. Is somethig going on here that we don't know about? Pinwheel Toni
Also there is a long chain of convection to its south. Lookfrom theW GOM to the E Coast, almost looks like they are trying to create a huge spin 
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Where, oh where, did the rain go? It's vanishing before our very eyes.
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLocalWide.asp?loc=kmco&seg=LocalWeather&prodgrp=RadarImagery&product=RadarLoop&prodnav=none&pid=none
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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Could there possibly be something wanting to form in the central gulf? Steve, I know you are watching what is going on out there. Joe B. seems to be concerned with the activity in the gulf. I haven't check out any of the buoys out there but Joe B. did say that the pressures are falling. I don't know what will happen,more than likely nothing, but it has sure made for an interesting holiday weekend. 
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I believe that the "squashed spider" analogy was someone's way of giving us a little humor....it sure worked for me! ;-)
As far as movement goes, it really hasn't moved all that much, at least from what I can tell. It kinda looks like it's losing its shape a bit, maybe elongating; however, on the last Tropical Update, Mike Sidel said the sectors in the last frame had been changed...maybe that's why it looks like it was going east or south.
I'm not sure what the future holds here for TD#5. It's not moving much, the pressures are somewhat high (which NWS mentioned in their 2:35pm update, saying that this may be because the center could be reforming).
One thing's for sure as far as these things go: I have learned that if you sit and watch the loops all day long, you will have a very large and painful headache. This is also known a HurricaneItis. This conditon may be include the following symptoms:
1. You're head is always cocked in a WEST or WNW direction.
2. When other men around you (this is for the gentlemen here) mention "models", you automatically respond: "They are not reliable" or "The Model does best in this type of situation".
3. You wake up at 3:01AM and stay up until 3:50am so you won't miss the Tropical Update.
4. When someone gets something in their eye, you ask how low their pressure is, on a scale of 1-5.
5. You have a map at home with all red dots on it indicating all the past storms for each month of the hurricane season.
6. You know what 290/15 means.
Ok, anyone else experiencing these symptoms? 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Jason M
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 39
Loc: New Orleans
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The discussions for both Dolly and newly formed tropical depression #5 are now available at Tropical Weather Watchers. I have also updated the detailed Atlantic discussion which you may want to read as there is the potential for GOM development.
BTW, if you're having any problems with the forecast center just let me know.
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http://www.independentwx.com
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Steve....didn't it do that yesterday for a little while? Kinda died out then came back to life later on?
Maybe Bruce WASN'T kidding. ;-)
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Hi Colleen.....I've been gone for awhile.....nice to see you're still around......yes TD#5 does have a history of simmering down around this time of day and then refiring......who knows what this baby will do.....that's why we're here...right????
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k___g
Weather Guru
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Posts: 110
Loc: Leesburg, FL
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Colleen.....it might have helped if I'd logged in.....huh?????? It's me......k___g.......we used to chat on Mike Anderson's page.....it's been a few years.......
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Colleen, you're suffering from post stress traumatic syndrome tropical storm deliriousness.... I think about 50% of the regulars on this board get it during the month of Sept...hehe
TD 5 going to aggrevate the stew out of you Central Floridians.... models are having a hard time with this one with the weak steering currents..... It certainly not going to affect us in the Northern Gulf Coast, this one's for the east coast, if anybody... might end up being a fish spinner.. who knows... last night I would have bet money it would have been inland on the C. Florida area by this time as it was moving to the west...
Speaking of the GOM, lots of convection in the north central GOM. Buoy data tonight not that impressive to indicate anything going on.....
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Colleen:
Yeah. Convection has been up and down. It's actually coming back a bit now which is different from when I last posted.
ShawnS,
Yeah. I have been waching. 7:30 IR's in the area show a distinct 'bend' to all the clouds. I still don't think the surface low that's moved across the Gulf will end up becoming the center of whatever forms. I was thinking (and I either posted it here or US WW/HH) that the possibility existed for a Tuesday/Wed TS landfall between Galveston and New Iberia. Originally, it looked like the pattern would open up so that there would be somewhat of a blocking position to the north leaving whatever low formed < 100 miles onshore for the first day or so. This now would depend on where it went inland.
It's still hard to say there's definitely going to be classification, but the way heat energy and moisture have been building on in, things have been setting up for development. I haven't looked at the buoys yet. Last check here in town had 29.98 and winds E and NE gusting to 17.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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td 5 is getting westerly shear now, keeping the development in check. convection is less symmetrical but still going on the east side with some vigor.
dolly will probably go too far north to be a threat, unless it gets ripped to shreds and goes well west in the low level flow.
the new emergent system off africa looks nice, convection staying up fairly well. still betting on an invest. bastardi says it will have a better chance of making it west, whatwith the central atlantic trough getting lost.
well, all you gulf folks will like this. the wave passing hispaniola has a good bit of energy far north on its axis.. can see this causing trouble as it passes cuba next couple of days.
thats the basin.
by the way, fausto is back in the centpac. spiffy.
HF navarre, fl 0109z01september
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