J.J.
Unregistered
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Frank P:
I've also checked out the radar loops, and my estimate of the radar center is close to yours--28.1N 93W, at 1531Z. The radar looks compelling--I'd be surprised if they don't find anything out there. Upper-level conditions are currently excellent, and SSTs aren't an issue.
Visual imagery seems to show what may be secondary--or illusory--center near 27N 91.9W. I'm discounting this for now.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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I haven't got the slightest idea what's in store. Everthing and everybody is all over the place. We have Dr. Gray with a biased low landfall prediction, followed by the NOAA. Then we have people swearing up and down this is a 15 year named storm season STILL. Some people say fish spinners, others say development in tight, others still blame Dyno-Gel 
I'm staying with my original 13/8/3 but if someone gave me some insurance, I'd hedge that to 11/4/2.
What do you think?
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Check out the latest IR loop... deep convection with white tops starting to build around what I think might be a developing center... the area is close to what I though might be the center based on radar as indicated on an earlier post... Suggest center via IR located at 28.0N and 93.2W This is about as good as this thing has looked and if this is the general center of the system, it certainly has the convection to support development... this thing might be ready to EXPLODE.... stay tuned
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squirralee
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 80
Loc: Mims, Florida
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I don't know if you listened to Joe Bastardis tropical update this morning...but he is watching what we were seeing yesterday on the . It seems the part of old Ed that got sent southeast may be a problem later down the road. What do you think?
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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quick word before next class. is finally mentioning 95L, and 96L looks more organized than yesterday. edouard's visible presentation is better than i expected, but still isnt much.
responding to those above.. i know i am critical sometimes, but i'm not unreasonable or insulting. keep in mind that i'm open to the same.. and i hear what youre saying. i dont think mentioning that someone is wrong and pompously insisting they are right is a major breach of etiquette. and i did mention that i usually like his ideas, even though farfetched and saturated in egoism. as far as i know commenting on what other people say is part of interacting on the site. a little character clash is inevitable.
HF 1627z05september
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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She wasn't taking you to task. She was taking the anonymous poster who criticized ShawnS yesterday to task just like I did. Not that the post wasn't right or accurate, it's just if someone's going to 'debate', they might as well ad a moniker instead of playing ghost.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Hey JJ, the IR has gone nuts in the past hour... looking at the buoys I can't find anything that supports a rapidly developing system, but there are no data buoys within 100 miles in the general area of where we think the center is with this system...
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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This season has been vey difficult to figure out what pattern is instore but I am beginning to think that el nino pattern is slowly setteling in and that is why we are seeing the shear increase in parts of the atlantic.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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For the interest of those on the Gulf coast and since I didn't hear it mentioned, the EC develops a TS just off the TX/MX border and moves it eventually to the NNE, bringing it over LA at 168 hours as a rather strong system. Squirrelee, the phantom from yesterday may have hinted at something, but the Canadian model shows a significant system developing in the Bahamas and bringing it down to 987 mb at hour 144. The 12Z run of the GGEM and RGEM also show it as well as the 0 Z . Think it is a bit too far north and east with it's position since a fairly large high pressure area should be developing near the east coast. But then again, it could give us a stronger Eduoard!! Now I think I'll go in the garage, close the door, and start the engine. Cheers!! Steve H.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Recon is now in the region, and we should know more about this system off the Texas coast within the next few hours... it certainly seems to be organising rapidly today!
As for Edouard, he has hung on against all the odds. did not think he would hit the coast as a TS, but he did. The centre was not expected to be well defined when it left the coast, but it was! Sure, i dont expect the system to redevelop signifcantly, but i guess, as he has shown us, Edouard is tenatious!
Rich B
StormWarn2000
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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My link to the hurricane models runs doesn't work anymore... does anyone have a link they can post for accessing the hurricane model runs?
thanks
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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http://www.hurricanealley.net/mdltrpatlt02.html
There's one,
Here's another:
http://www.net-waves.net/weather/tropics.php
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Thanks Steve these are great, but I should have been a little clearer in my request... I would like the link to the model test runs... here is the old link that apparently does not work for me anymore
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Ohio State site has been down for several days. It's not outdated, none of their tropical products have worked in 2 weeks. I'm assuming it's a server issue.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Frank P - you get the Invest runs off of that net-waves site. You just have to scroll down. Here's 18Z
WHXX01 KWBC 051737
CHGHUR
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD (AL052002) ON 20020905 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...
020905 1800 020906 0600 020906 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.7N 83.4W 27.5N 83.3W 26.3N 83.3W
BAMM 28.7N 83.4W 28.6N 84.5W 28.8N 85.8W
A98E 28.7N 83.4W 28.5N 84.5W 28.1N 84.8W
LBAR 28.7N 83.4W 28.1N 84.0W 27.9N 84.8W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 30KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 30KTS
...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...
020907 0600 020907 1800 020908 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.4N 83.7W 24.5N 84.1W 23.0N 85.3W
BAMM 29.4N 87.6W 30.3N 89.5W 32.4N 93.4W
A98E 27.4N 84.5W 26.4N 84.5W 23.4N 84.3W
LBAR 28.1N 85.8W 28.5N 87.0W 29.4N 89.0W
SHIP 37KTS 42KTS 46KTS
DSHP 37KTS 42KTS 30KTS
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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can someone please share the conversion rate for MB to IN for pressure. Also, looks like steady is going to have another burst.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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http://www.pcwp.com/mb_conversion.html
millibars x 0.02953 = inches of mercury
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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thanks
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troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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squiralee and seteve h mentioned the remnants of Edouard off to the SE of Florida. Not sure if anyone got to see the rdara lop out of Melb this am round 6am( i posted a link). The radra loop showed a weird swirl similar to what was shown in one of yesterdays models(teh one squiralee pointed out). It probably doesnt mean anything but was neat to see.
have a great day all. this week may hold for more weird storm watching
troy
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J.J.
Unregistered
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FrankP:
Buoy and surface obs definitely support a broad low in the Gulf--however, the radar signature doesn't look as good as it did earlier today, and the vis shows an awfully ragged system. Nevertheless, cloud tops are cold.
Plot of surface and buoy obs:
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/sfc_aus.gif
and
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_mex.gif
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