Mike
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 40
Loc: Port St. John, Fla
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614
WONT41 KNHC 051946
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
350 PM EDT THU SEP 5 2002
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN
INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. REPORTS FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THIS SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND HAS BECOME
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX. THE FIRST ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 PM
EDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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might as well. this system reminds me of from 1998. not going anywhere in a hurry, not very organized, not revving up very fast. going to be erratic until it gets better defined.
HF 2015z05september
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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looks like it is very close to land wont do much were will it go there is a uprr low west of it ed to the east only way out is north or take a brake something will stop it or ed
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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pressures are also falling all over the place in the eastern Gulf. Looks like Eddie might be trying to defy the odds one more time.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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TD#6 now in GOM upper level winds look favorable for possibly further development. TD#5 hanging on by a thread for now. Also a very impressive wave moving off africa. All models hinting at possible development with this. Winds look somewhat favorable here too. Although first concern is gulf.
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Sorry last post was me.
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Late yesterday it looked like what is now TD6 and what is left of Edouard would be all to watch for a while. Not the case at all today...
Edoaurd is now a mostly convectionless low pressure area, going to get blasted by nasty shear and TD6 until he finally dies in SE Louisiana this weekend. Not much weather out of this one in Nawlins'...okay, I'll just say New Orleans.
TD6: This one isn't spinning up quickly but because of the fact it will basically just sit where it is at until Saturday or possibly beyond the GOMEX will get a lot of rain out of this. Should make landfall as strong tropical storm. 60 knots is my intensity at this point. We are still looking for that first hurricane...doesn't look like this will be it.
Area ENE of Leewards: Too far north even though it may develop eventually. The chances of this one reaching the US are real slim at best. It may not even develop. The way this year has been I wouldn't even MENTION a depression forming until a disturbance is almost at that point. The shear has been difficult to forecast this year...don't count on anything.
Wave coming off of Africa looks very good at this time and already has a 1011 mb low pressure center with it. The models do like this one and develop it further west. The weirdness of this 2002 season has me worried about this one...
This has been a slow season so far but yet we are on the verge of having 6 named storm...we will probably have 10 or 11 this. We may only have 2-4 hurricanes this year but because we've only had weak little storm around, the energy is going to be released somehow. The wave comming off of Africa really concerns me. As weak as this season has been...it is only September 5th even though it feels more like October 25th. I'm afraid all it is going to take it one storm this year...that's it. The high pressure pattern has been perfect for a major EC landfalling year but we've had no storms to threaten. Dolly could have but pulled that trick the last minute and managed to recurve. Given the pattern set-up, don't be surprised to see a bad storm come around soon and remind everybody that we are still in September and that the season is far from over. This year just has a weird feel to it.
Any thoughts?
Kevin
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Ouch! Sorry about typos in last post...a bit tired right now. One of those long freshman days in high school.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Hi All,
I just wanted to let everyone know about a great radar website that I use. You can set up all your own preferences and have the radar center and literally zoom in and out over your own house or any other exact location you would like. It is very accurate, up to the minute, and even loops. You can also add as many locations as you want. It is great to zoom in on a storm. Like yesterday, while most were using the Melbourne radar, I set mine up to have Ormond Beach as the center and zoom point as Edourd was making landfall. Check it out and let me know what you think. Hope you like it.  www.my-cast.com
--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Seems to already be working on TD 6. If you look at the visible pictures (loop) you'll see an upper low off Corpus Christi, and in the last few hours seems like TD6 is experiencing shear, blow off to the NE, while sitting stationary. so, it might be the same old story.
Ed is trying to make a comeback but the shear monster plus energy with TD 6 are going to finish him...what a storm that could have been but for shear!
IHS,
Bill
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caneman
Unregistered
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Bill, according to TPC, shear to the west and Anticyclone to the east will actually aid in devlopment. POErhaps helping with outflow. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.html
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Shear to west of TD#6. Take a look at this link... http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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hi, there is a monster wave moving off africa, and more behind it..
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