troy2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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scott lighten up!
Heck I spell bad because of my dyslexia
my point was,
if you are to bash people atleast post a name along with your bash. Even in the "I am sorry i was playing" post there was still no nome.
I guess you didnt really understand the sarcasm and/or you didnt see my I was playing" line at the end of my post.
or dont care care b/c you think you are the best think since the GOES 8 
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troy2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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pretty loop showing the banding someone mentioned earlier
http://www.wunderground.com/global/Region/AT/2xpxIRSatellite.html
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Anonymous
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GOES 8 sucks LOL J/K scottsvb
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troy2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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scott you know i am just playin with you as well...!
what kind of last name is svb anyway?
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Anonymous
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i know you were. Thats why i said goes 8 sucks.LOL. svb is my initials. I have togo, Ill post more on the system later at work.
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Robert
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
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Does ne one no if joe is going to post a tropical weather outlook on his video section, he dosent seem to confidant in this system ne more. Its not like him to leave the weather comunity hanging like this. Any way recon cant find a center if you remeber the past few years with system south of hispanolu they couldent close off LLCC but the storm looked like it was a TS
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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fish spinner country yes, but there is another swirl out of the trades that is popping a bit of convection on its stratus swirl bands. very light shear overhead. its at 28/42. slow development prospect.
with isidore about to start deepening in the caribbean i doubt many care whats going on out where the nearest land mass is the azores.
by the way spelling not a big deal as much as the content. make a good post with misspellings, fine. make a 'ooh i can see the difinite spen' post, looking at an upper low and saying its developing.. and expect to get knocked for it.
scott, time to make amends for only getting hanna half right.. think you can call this one? robert, you spotting the LLC last evening with the closeup was nice detective work, want to see you top that.
HF 1811z16september
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troy2
Storm Tracker
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Loc: cocoa beach
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http://weather.unisys.com/aviation/4e/avn_pres_4e.html
and
http://www.essc.psu.edu/rhart-cgi-bin/avntc2.cgi?time=2002091612&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
shows a tiny bit more than "hardly nothing"
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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noticed that recon hasnt gone past 75w. look at the nasa visible closeup, you can see a partially exposed LLC at the very western edge of the convection. there is a strong cell going off on the eastern side of it.. right around 15.5/75. recon gets on the west side of that.. they find the center.
HF 1829z16september
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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HF, you nailed that one on the head. There is defintely a center around 15.5 and 75, even if it is partially exposed. This system is still in it's developmental stages so the LLC is going to be hard to find and poorly-defined for the next day or two. Still think the poor LLC appearance is due to the shear from the upper-level trough to it's west, which by the way, looks like it may be starting to drift west. Just in time for TD 10 to roll on in.
Troy 2: The AVN model is nothing short of completly whacked and wrong. How the heck is a system that shallow (it showed 1006 mb) going to be recurved? The AVN is off at this time. This system is currently rolling right along west-northwest and should continue to do so for the next day or two. After that, things get interesting.
Kevin 
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Robert
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Southeast, FL
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I dont post here to try and call things i just want to have other input to what my eyes are showing me. But if were gonna call things i say its moving to slow now to affect the yucatun, and maby even western cuba. So above or just on the coast of n jamaica into through central cuba heading n into the southeastern tip of florida moving n in the class of a major category, sorry gulf kids this aint your storm its reserved for miami to jacksonville there are just to many factors that cant be listed that are the reason why this is not going to the west coast.There now that i maid a fool of my self by stating what i think will happen i dont want to here people bitching at me if this dont fall through i take anyone's forcast as if they are just guessing and dont no what their talking about and i advise evryone else do the same. This site best used for real time data to help make your own idea of what is going to happen.
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Anonymous
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scott posted it above at 1:31pm at 14.8N and 74.8W
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troy2
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Loc: cocoa beach
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hey HF yu mentioned the NASA close up images. I was at a very nice page earlier that had the different images listed and also animations.
I lost the link. Maybe it was the same you are using.
This one had one imags listed as relavant or relative and was a close up of tw10. The same page also had a list of other images. is that the page you use? If so can ya give me the url?
thanks either way
Troy
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Anonymous
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Well, I guess that makes three of us who see the LLCC on the west edge of convection. However, just issued a stds that says no closed low at this time. Too much dry air off SA, in 24 hrs, it'll be a whole new picture.
Observations:
1. LLCC is outrunning the convection, but new convection is firing as noted on the east side of the LLCC.
2. There is some sw shear, it is weakening
3. When system gets a little closer to Jamaica and Caymans, it'll go big time.
4. Ultimate destination--well, with no LLCC (closed off) hard to say, I'd say close to SE FL coast recurving or just west of Florida, possibly as far west as central Gulf, then a recurve into N/NE Gulf coast.
TWT- Time Will Tell.
IHS,
Bill
outside chance---Yucatan, then into Gulf, further west--or into N Gulf Coast.
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Anonymous
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As of the 5pm update they have not closed a low so there will be no TD or TS at 5pm. Oh well.
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Loc: EC Florida
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIADSAAT.html
This not good for two reasons:
1. Starting tonight, Jamaca is going to feel tropical storm force winds. It simply doesn't matter if this thing has a closed circulation at this time.
2. Notice they aren't going back in until tomorrow morning. Not at all a good thing...this could well be a moderate tropical storm by then. Going to catch Jamaca by surprise and possibly give Cuba very little advanced warning.
This is a lousy decision by ...this "strong wave" is probably extremely close to depression strength. We need recon back in tonight, not tomorrow. The satellite signature continues to improve and that concerns me. Reminded of Erin in 1995 when said it was a very vigourous tropical wave...it had winds of like 40-50 knots but no closed circulation. It developed one very quickly once the shear that was on it went away. Also, recon found the circulation on a nighttime mission. On the flip side, if the appearance continues may just issue a nighttime mission or maybe even upgrade on satellite basis tonight. We'll have to see if the organization trend continues. If the decision for no recon holds tonight and no upgrade via satellite occurs recon will be very, very surprised tomorrow. They may not get another look until tomorrow...the day I think the rapid intensification phase will begin.
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Robert
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Southeast, FL
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Well there goes that last post up in smoke. My thinking was the center was much further east, eating my own crow now "tastes Good" needs garlic though.
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Actually, nobody is a fool here. As I said in my last post, if they don't do another recon tonight as they say, they are going to be in for a big, big surprise tomorrow. may be taking big heat tomorrow when Jamaca had no warnings issued but TS conditions occured. Cuba may not get enough of a warning, either.
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Anonymous
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IT's a bag of wind right now, but strong wind at that I'll bet. But since it's got Florida in it's eye it'll fall apart...an allergic reaction to the state; either that or go into the GOM. I'm not overly impressed by the latest vis images; convective bursts but no one center. All kidding aside though, conditions should improve greatly tomorrow and Kevin, you may be onto something here. Building anticyclone over it tomorrow should intensify it greatly if we have a closed center (LOL) ..me thinks we will shortly. But it's trying like hell to threaten. They should call Florida the "show me" state instead of Missour'a'. They talk about all the "overdue for landfall" potential. But never seems to pan out. Let's get a closed system, then we can hype!!! But yes, lets be on our guard cause it'll be a short fuse.  Cheers!! Steve H.
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Anonymous
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Not surprised of at all. Without LLCC it cannot upgrade but I do believe its on the verge of becomming a T.S. not a depression. Once this occurs which will be over night we will have Isidore. There is a well pronounced mid level center without a doubt it just has'nt worked down to the surface yet. Thunderstorms are developing around the midlevel center as you read this and if this continues as I believe it will it will be down to the surface soon. Upper level winds are still a bit strong and could be holding this system in check but they will weaken tommorow and this system should start its strengthening stage. As for what happens next Jamaica is in for 40-50mph winds and heavy rain tommorow. Cuba 50-75mph winds Wednesday and Thursday. Thats it for now!!!
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