Anonymous
Unregistered
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early morning snooping indicates a few obvious things....Isidore....might as well name the thing...we all know it will develop...
Izzy will continue moving more west than originally thought...will develop slower than anticipated, but will have plenty of time. I haven't looked at the water vapor loops yet, but the storm is large enough to be a widow-maker. hope it misses all the third world interests...they can't handle these things...neither can our wonderful insurance companies...bet they are puckering up this morning...(the state farms of the world)....one more BAD hurricane will finish some of them off.
looks to me like a Gulf Storm...be suprise...really suprised, if this poofs out on us....
wonder what some of our meteorologists are thinking about this one?
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I agree HF, kinda like where it was supposed to be. Interestingly, this has almost no model support except for the . Yes has it, but as a 27 knot TD? in the eastern GOM. I believe the models are having trouble initializing this, and they will come around later today. Is this the beginning?? We'll know later today. CHeers!! Steve H.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Not speaking for the one I work for but....yeah, there are insurance companies that are worried about anything near Florida.
Personally, I'm going to avoid the models for a bit until something is found to have formed and some regular data is coming in. Although, it seems like there is a trend for the models to agree on Florida, break away for a while and then comeback to Florida on this system. Until I see a good 48 hours of nothing hitting Florida, I'm keeping close watch on this sucker.
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Jim
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clyde w.
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Hi folks...I think we may have Isadore already, just not in the Carribean. The Navy site has put an invest (90L) on the system in the cetral atlantic, and early visibles show a well defined circulation. There's a good chance that our Florida headache from the Carribean will be named Josephine.
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Rick in Mobile
Unregistered
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in the last 4 hours or so...the convection has gotten 50% larger, drifting west, with excellent outflow...can someone link me to a loop showing where you are seeing a possible LLC? I am not seeing one yet. But everything else is taking shape. I'll tell ya, when and if it starts, it will pop up to a cat 3 quickly...
i think it will float into the Gulf, and hit Mobile as a category 6
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clyde w.
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
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NHC Goes Floater2 is now showing the system at 32.5N 52.5W. LLC clearly visible on the eastern edge of the convection, looks healthy.
Now its just a race to who gets named Isadore. Has anyone ever met anyone with that name? I'm going with the central atlantic storm being named isadore or TD11 at the 11a.m. advisory, and that TD10 gets reclassified as well...early images show what seems to be a LLC forming just south-southeast of Jamaica.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Must have found a closed center. lists it as 10L. Anyone know the coordinates??? Steve H.
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garyb
Weather Guru
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Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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URNT12 KNHC 171240
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 17/1240Z
B. 15 DEG 54 MIN N
77 DEG 09 MIN W
C. NA
D. 15 KT
E. 276 DEG 30 NM
F. 029 DEG 13 KT
G. 276 DEG 030 NM
H. EXTRAP 1009 MB
I. 23 C/ 427 M
J. 23 C/ 431 M
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 13/1
O. 1 /15 NM
P. AF985 0410A INVEST OB 15
MAX FL WIND 22 KT NW QUAD 1229Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.
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RBL
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 10
Loc: Miami Fl
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New data from Recon:
438
URNT12 KNHC 171240
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 17/1240Z
B. 15 DEG 54 MIN N
77 DEG 09 MIN W
C. NA
D. 15 KT
E. 276 DEG 30 NM
F. 029 DEG 13 KT
G. 276 DEG 030 NM
H. EXTRAP 1009 MB
I. 23 C/ 427 M
J. 23 C/ 431 M
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 13/1
O. 1 /15 NM
P. AF985 0410A INVEST OB 15
MAX FL WIND 22 KT NW QUAD 1229Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.
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garyb
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN (AL102002) ON 20020917 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...
020917 1200 020918 0000 020918 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.9N 76.8W 16.8N 78.4W 17.5N 79.8W
BAMM 15.9N 76.8W 16.8N 78.5W 17.6N 80.0W
A98E 15.9N 76.8W 16.0N 78.5W 16.6N 80.0W
LBAR 15.9N 76.8W 16.6N 78.5W 17.4N 80.0W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 45KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 45KTS
...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...
020919 0000 020919 1200 020920 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.2N 81.2W 18.8N 82.4W 19.6N 84.1W
BAMM 18.6N 81.4W 19.3N 82.6W 20.5N 84.3W
A98E 17.6N 81.5W 18.5N 82.9W 19.8N 85.7W
LBAR 18.5N 81.3W 19.5N 82.5W 21.3N 84.1W
SHIP 55KTS 64KTS 82KTS
DSHP 55KTS 64KTS 82KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.9N LONCUR = 76.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 15.8N LONM12 = 75.3W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 15.5N LONM24 = 73.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Interpreter Please. now has it at SW Fla at 81 knots on the 6Z model, up from 27. 12Z will have 118 knots. LOL Steve H.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Thanks Gary. Steve H. Heading near western Cuba/Yucatan channel at 82 knots. Steve H.
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garyb
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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NRL has 10L noname back up. Don't know why. They ran a test then dropped the test and called it 10L don't know why. Help!
Edited by garyb (Tue Sep 17 2002 01:46 PM)
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Recon has posted a Vortex Data Message. If i am correct, these messages are only issued when a closed circulation is found. Winds are estimated at 15 knots in the NW quadrant, but this area has little convective activity. Will be interesting to see what they report from other quads!
Rich B
StormWarn2000
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Confirmed... re-starting advisories on 35 mph TD Ten. TS Warnings will probably be up for Jamaica soon...
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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garyb
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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Are you sure Rich 15kt winds max 22 ???
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Mike
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 40
Loc: Port St. John, Fla
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The following is why:
000
WONT41 KNHC 171319
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
915 AM EDT TUE SEP 17 2002
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING
THE TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF JAMAICA HAS FOUND THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A
CLOSED CIRCULATION AND IS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGAIN. ADVISORIES
WILL THEREFORE BE RESTARTED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN BEGINNING AT
11 AM EDT. AT 8 AM EDT...THE POORLY ORGANIZED CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8
WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. MOVEMENT IS TOWARD THE
WEST AT 8 MPH.
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS...SOME TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...WILL BE
SPREADING OVER JAMAICA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE GOVERNMENT OF
JAMAICA MAY ISSUE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AT 11 AM.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Is this heading towards the SW and Honduras?? Tell me my eyes are deceiving me?? I guess we'll wait for the real report.
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garyb
Weather Guru
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Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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Good call Rich and Mike TD 10 alive again
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Mike
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 40
Loc: Port St. John, Fla
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I wonder if they found the true LLC. I think HF is correct there is a possibility of multi LLC, or close to being LLC, in this storm. They probably will all be weak for now. Look for a possible LLC reformation with this guy.
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