Rickoshade
Registered User
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Posts: 8
Loc: Mobile Al
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Hunker down Steve...it could hit La. as easily as any of us...
Colleen gets to watch from Florida...as the rest of us sweat it out. It would be great to have posts from all the areas along the coast...and then as it barrells down on one of us...that person(s) could tell us how bad it is....at least, that is...up until the last few hours...cause by then...the power goes out....the wind gets ta howlin'....and the roofs come off, the trees fall down....and all the mobile homes get repositioned or destroyed....
never forget that cat 3....chainsaws, heat and humidity, and misery for a month and half after that....
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Rickoshade
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 8
Loc: Mobile Al
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Hunker down Steve...it could hit La. as easily as any of us...
Colleen gets to watch from Florida...as the rest of us sweat it out. It would be great to have posts from all the areas along the coast...and then as it barrells down on one of us...that person(s) could tell us how bad it is....at least, that is...up until the last few hours...cause by then...the power goes out....the wind gets ta howlin'....and the roofs come off, the trees fall down....and the mobiles homes get repositioned or destroyed....
never forget that cat 3....chainsaws, heat and humidity, and misery for a month and half after that....
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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In relation to the questions about Izzy missing the trough and turning west; or if he gets stronger what he will do, here is what the said about THAT yesterday:
"SPECULATING A BIT BEYOND THREE DAYS...THERE IS APPARENTLY ENOUGH MODEL RIDGING IN THE NORTHERN GULF FOR THE UKMET AND AVN TO TAKE ISIDORE SLOWLY
WESTWARD. HOWEVER...IF ISIDORE BECOMES A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE...THE ATLANTIC CUTOFF MAY NOT BE AS STRONG OR AS FAR WEST AS THE MODELS INDICATE...AND THIS COULD MEAN A MORE NORTHERLY...
RATHERLY THAN WESTERLY DRIFT ACROSS THE GULF."
Although this was from the 5AM Discussion yesterday and it was only speculation, I am quite sure that it still stands today.
When the NHC tells me that FLORIDA is out of the woods, that's when I'll breath a sigh of relief. Not one minute sooner. If the is having a difficult time determining a track and they are the experts, than how the heck can we say ANYBODY is out of the woods for now? We CAN'T. And we SHOULD NOT. The last time I looked, the hadn't said that ANYONE was in the clear either NOW or LATER.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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OK, now I am confused. Vortex message with a position of 20.4 81.7 max surface winds only 50knots but pressure is 987??? What happened to the winds?
URNT12 KNHC 191754
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/1754Z
B. 20 DEG 26 MIN N
81 DEG 39 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1279 M
D. 50 KT
E. 294 DEG 23 NM
F. 009 DEG 53 KT
G. 280 DEG 010 NM
H. 987 MB
I. 18 C/ 1546 M
J. 22 C/ 1557 M
K. 19 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C20
N. 12345/8
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF966 1210A ISIDORE OB 11
MAX FL WIND 53 KT W QUAD 1751Z.
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Jim
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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I believe thats the highest they have found so far. Likely higher.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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LOL, Rick.....your description of the aftermath was inspiring....*grins*
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I'm not sure about this, but I'll throw it out there: they said the max flight winds were 50? knts in west quadrant..maybe that's the first report they've given since being out there. We may get another report later. Although, from the way they word it, it sounds as if 50knts was the maximum flight winds of all. Hm. Anyone?
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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That is west quad only....
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Jason Kelley
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goes8hurrir.html
In the words of Booker T, look at that "sucka" now. Unreal. Cuba's gonna get hammered. Tough luck Fidel.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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OK Colleen, here's the Melbourne NWS from this afternoon:
BEYOND 00Z SUN...LCL FCST WILL DEPEND ON THE PATH/STRENGTH OF
"ISIDORE"...WHICH IS FCST TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY TO THE N/NW THROUGH
18Z SUN AS IT STRENGTHENS TO NEAR CAT 3 STRENGTH. WHILE MOST OF THE
MODELS ARE INDICATING A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION/PRESSURE PATTERN AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SE GOMEX...THEIR TRACK FORECASTS DIVERGE
BEYOND 12Z SAT. FCST CONFIDENCE BEYOND SAT NIGHT IS LOW. WILL
DEFAULT TO CLIMO POPS FOR NOW... AND AOA CLIMO TEMPS BUT THIS MAY
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE COMING DAYS.
So I did not say we're in the Clear!  BTW, the Melbourne NWS are some of the best in the country and they don't have a clue!! Cheers!! Steve H. PS: IM me at 7 pm. thanks.
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caneman
Unregistered
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Read on another board that it could be that they can't get in on Eastern side now maybe due to Cuban airspace. Thoughts........
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200210_climo.html
while not a scientist but being a card player i would have to go with the odds. look at the history. most of these storms have been around florida. i don't know if this one will do the same but the odds are on it. if we have 10 of them and i bet everyone of them would have an impact on fla. bet i would win money. thats why i can't believe some of the post saying fla is in the clear. i hope we are cause this looks like a possible rough one.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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OK, 50 knots in the west quad makes sense. I know they air force recon does have to be careful of Cuban airspace. Just not sure how close Izzy is to it right now.
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Jim
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Marktropic
Unregistered
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Has anyone else noticed the thunderstorms are shifting more to the north on the last few pictures. I know its not the center but it looks like a northerly shift. Is this just banding moving away from the center or is it a direction shift?
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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If the forecast is correct on calling this storm to sit in the GOMEX and move very slowly, I'd have to think that by 72 hours any possible amplifications would pick this storm up. NWS Melbourne seem more uncertain about this one than ever.
I'm currently thinking lanfall near Pensacola as a category 3 or category 4 hurricane. The Florida Peninsula will feel effects for this reason: look at the storm size! This storm is huge, especially on it's southern quad. That is where all of the rough weather is.
Also...about the models turning this storm west...all I can say is whether this storm goes more westerly or more easterly with time, nothing would be fast to occur.
Another possiblity is a reverse of Elena...Elena tried to go east but a ridge built back in and she went west. Given the situation now, Isidore could try to go west but it would be far enough north to be caught by an amplification and sent NE and E.
Just my thoughts and this time...my confidene beyond tomorrow is 0% barring any major speed or motion changes. Can't pinpoint a location...but still thinking that anyone from New Orleans eastward could get hurricane conditions due to Isidore's large size. We have plenty of time to watch this storm because it is moving so slowly. Just don't be surprised to see big problems by the middle of next week.
Kevin
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Aren't the coordinates from the vortex message east of where the center was??????????
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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N/T
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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982
URNT12 KNHC 191942
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/1942Z
B. 20 DEG 29 MIN N
81 DEG 51 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1255 M
D. 70 KT
E. 022 DEG 12 NM
F. 112 DEG 76 KT
G. 017 DEG 007 NM
H. 984 MB
I. 19 C/ 1553 M
J. 22 C/ 1536 M
K. 18 C/ NA
L. OPEN NW
M. C15
N. 12345/08
O. 0.1/2 NM
P. AF966 1210A ISIDORE OB 16
MAX FL WIND 76 KT N QUAD 1940Z.
;
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Jason Kelley
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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That makes much more sense. Not great news , though not unexpected.
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Jim
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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hey steve check this out....
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200210_model.html
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