scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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I NEED TO CHECK MY SPELLING, THOUGH=THROW, MOST=MUST. DAMN lol SVB
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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he is making the front bend can he make his steering he looks to be taking control of the gulf thats what it looks like
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OrlandoDude
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 2
Loc: Orlando, Florida, USA
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It appears that Izzy will be a typical Gulf Storm.
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Orlando Dude
SW Orange Country, Florida
"We don't need anymore people moving here.. thanks"
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Here is how the PEOPLE at NWS are interperting what they see from the models...
EXTENDED FCST DISC VALID SUN SEP 22 2002 THRU THU SEP 26 2002
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
324 PM EDT THU SEP 19 2002
...MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN STILL IS A KEY PLAYER IN DETERMINING WHAT
EFFECT DEVELOPING HURRICANE "ISIDORE" MIGHT HAVE ON THE MAINLAND OF
THE LOWER 48 STATES. EWD-DRIFTING STRONG UPPER RIDGES/POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE W COAST OF CANADA AND OVER
LABRADOR IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY PERIOD. IN BETWEEN...A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF
WILL DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE MS VLY. THE UNANSWERED QUESTION REMAINS
HOW SHARP SHORTWAVES MOVING THRU THE BASE OF THIS TROF WILL BE...AND
WHETHER ANY OF THEM CAN PULL "ISIDORE" NWD INTO THE SERN STATES.
CONCERNING DEVELOPING HURRICANE "ISIDORE"....
DESPITE IT TAKING THE HURRICANE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE (LEFT OF ITS
00Z/19 TRACK) BY DAY 5...THE NEW 12Z AVN RUN CHANGED OUR THINKING VERY
LITTLE FROM OUR 14Z RELEASE. THIS MORNING...I DECIDED TO GO WITH THE 06Z
AVN EXCEPT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD IN
CONNECTION WITH "ISIDORE". OUR EXTRAPOLATION OF HURRICANE "ISIDORE"
FROM THE OFFICIAL 12Z/19 72HR POSITION CONTINUES A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST BASED ON THE FACT THAT THE 00Z/19 UKMET...NOGAPS...AND
HAD TAKEN A DECIDED TREND TOWARDS THE RIGHT FROM YESTERDAYS
TRACK. THEY FORECAST THE STORM INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO DAYS 4-
5...THREATENING THE ERN GULF COAST...WRN FL...AND POSSIBLY EVEN THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS BY DAY 6. THIS WAS IN CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY MODEL
CONSENSUS...WHICH FAVORED THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO EXCEPT FOR THE
CANADIAN MODEL. A QUICK LOOK AT NEW 12Z/19 AVN/UKMET/NOGAPS RUNS
MAY BE FAVORING A SWING OF THE PENDULUM BACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL
AND WRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH "ISIDORE" FOR DAYS 3-4...MORE IN LINE WITH
YESTERDAYS MODEL GUIDANCE.
THE NEW 12Z AVN SPINS UP ANOTHER TROPICAL SYS NEAR THE BAHAMAS ON
DAY 3 THEN DRIFTS IT NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THE REMAINDER OF THIS
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. WE ARE DISCOUNTING THIS DEVELOPMENT AS
SPURIOUS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL POSSIBLE DAYS 3-7 OVER FL...THE
ERN GULF COAST...AND THE S ATLANTIC COAST. BUT WE ARE LESS CONFIDENT
OF THIS SCENARIO THAN WE WERE THIS MORNING GIVEN THE WWD TRENDS OF
THE 12Z/19 AVN...NOGAPS...AND UKMET WITH "ISIDORE" DAYS 3-5.
So they are battling the flip-flop's of the model data as well...
And their Day 7 Surface map???
Day 7 SFC prog
Lending more creedance to the thought that even if we DO get a due W or SW motion, that we are still looking like a Gulf Coast strike...
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Jason Kelley
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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i think that uper low in the bay is going to send izzy north the storms look strong down there i think izzy will go north for a while new motels show a sick izzy may die before land like all the others this year cool
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Isidore is really P*ssing me off now. I'm getting a bit fed up with the wobbling...this is what is making this forecast impossible. Isidore won't move in one direction for more than 12 hours, it seems the movement is WNW for 12 hours and then NW for the next 12 hours...and so on. Anyone who says this is trivial needs to learn about wobbles...they make it difficult to forecast in the short-term, and the short-term usually dictates the longer-term. Given the fact the the trough is still hanging over Texas and Isidore is moving slowly WNW to NW, I believe we may just see an complete collapse of the steering currents by 48 hours.
I will warn Floridians of one thing though...if Isidore remains a strong hurricane (likely) and drifts westward at 23-24N, the trough comming down on Tuesday will move him more NW initally and the second trough on Wednesday may well turn Isidore back towards the NE and ENE towards Central Florida. Isidore may respond to these troughs very dramatically or may not respond at all. Out of all the uncertainty, however, I believe this one is likely to shoot back towards Florida, possibly even towards the peninsula because Isidore is staying at a lower latitude than earlier forecasted. But don't get me wrong...storms at 23-24N can usually be picked up by troughs easily. Everyone in the GOMEX needs to keep their eye on this regardless of what is forecasted.
Other tropical issues: The tropical wave 1600 hundred miles east of the Windwards is very well defined and HUGE in size as well. A high is building, and this will keep the wave on a W and WNW track through 72 hours. Although I think it is reasonable to think this would be around PR/Hispanola by late next week, Florida *MAY* have to eventually deal with Isidore. The last thing we would need after a storm like Isidore would be another storm.
The low SE of Bermuda may be upgraded to a subtropical or tropical depression today. As busy as things are, I'll leave this one up to the . The concerns at home are far greater than these things.
Kevin 
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Jason that was yesterdays consensus, theyre new 1 should be out soon. Though there is still some uncertainty, they should say the 2nd trough will most likly not catch it.
scottsvb
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Good catch Scott...got my days and Z's mixed up there....
The link to the Day 7 prog, however, is right....
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Jason Kelley
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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NRL now has No name 12. Looks like Dr. Gray's forecast as a litlle low after all.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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jason can the uper low in the bay push izzy north
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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EXTENDED FCST DISC VALID MON SEP 23 2002 THRU FRI SEP 27 2002
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
334 PM EDT FRI SEP 20 2002
...MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE 500MB LONGWAVE PATTERN REMAINS A KEY PLAYER IN DETERMINING
WHAT EFFECT HURRICANE "ISIDORE" MIGHT EVENTUALLY HAVE ON THE
MAINLAND OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH THIS STORM RIGHT INTO DAY 7. STRONG POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES NE OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND NEAR THE W COAST OF NOAM WILL
SANDWICH A BROAD N-S NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER S CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE N CENTRAL DAYS 3-5. NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
WILL SPREAD EWD TO THE E COAST IN THE DAY 5-8 PERIOD WITH VERY CHILLY
AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THE MEAN PATTERN STILL FAVORS "ISIDORE" EVENTUALLY BEING PICKED UP
AND PULLED N INTO THE SERN STATES. 00Z/19 MODEL RUNS WERE SPLIT ON ITS
TRACK IN THE DAY 4-7 TIME FRAME. THIS MORNING I THOUGHT THAT THE
AVN/ECMWF/UKMET MIGHT BE TRACKING ISIDORE SO FAR S INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE THAT IT WOULD NOT INTERACT WITH ANY SHORTWAVES MOVING
THRU THE BASE OF THE CENTRAL TROF. IN THIS MORNINGS RELEASE...I
DECIDED TO GO WITH THE AVN...EXCEPT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
ALONG/OFFSHORE THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE NEW 12Z AVN DID NOT
CHANGE THAT REASONING. THE 00Z/19 CANADIAN/GFDL/NOGAPS AIMED
HURRICANE "ISIDORE" TOWARDS THE CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST AROUND DAY
5. HOWEVER...THE 12Z/19 CANADIAN MODEL BACKED OFF FROM ITS 00Z RUN AND
NOW TRACKS "ISIDORE" FARTHER WWD INTO THE GULF CLOSER TO THE TRACK
OF THE AVN MODEL.
AFTER MY NOON CONFERENCE CALL WITH THE ...MY LOW-CONFIDENCE
TRACK OF "ISADORE" THRU DAY 7 IS FARTHER S AND W THAN IN MY EARLY
RELEASE. I HAVE NOT GIVEN UP ON THE IDEA THAT THE STORM WILL BE
EVENTUALLY PICKED UP AND PULLED NWD...BUT IT MAY TAKE LONGER THAN I
EARLIER THOUGHT.
WE CONTINUE TO DISCOUNT A SUBTROPICAL SYS DEVELOPED BY THE LATEST
AVN RUNS VCNTY OF THE BAHAMAS DAY 3...THEN MOVED NNEWD OFFSHORE
THEREAFTER.
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Jason Kelley
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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The current thinking is no....it looks too weak to have that much infulence on the track.
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Jason Kelley
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cyclone_head
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 74
Loc: Florida
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I tend to agree with you there "Anonomous". I was wondering myself if the Upper level low would shear off the tops of Izzy and tame some of his anger. Both systems are moving so slow, it's hard to tell how they will react when they finally meet....Keep me posted on any new ideas in this train of thought....
cyclone_head (Rick)
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Brett
Unregistered
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I'm sorry. I did not mean to imply, by any stretch of the imagination, that this storm was afftecting Orlando at the moment in any way. I was imply impressed by its breadth, and the movement of smaller storms around it, and within it.
I also feel like this storm is destined for the Yucatan, though still, the reason is beyond me. Why it continues to lean west, even with the ULL there, is very surprising to me. Who knows. I could just say to hell with you all, and make its own path. Do these models take into consideration at all if a very large storm starts to create its own steering?
For now, I am sticking with very close to the Yucatan for several days.
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anonomyous
Unregistered
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Jason, I have just visited a few times and I am very much the amateur, I keep looking at water vapor, IF and visible of entire GOMEX and ATL and it just seems that the TX trough, the weakening ULL in the Bay, will progress along to allow Izzy to be influenced Eastward. Do you see that or I am full of frustration and Izzys hot air ?????? Thanks - Chris
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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As I posted above, it does look like that the ULL low N of the Bay of Campeche won't be strong enough to influence the track to the N or E....that, however is speculation....educated speculation, but speculation nonetheless...
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Jason Kelley
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Brett
Unregistered
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heading out for Friday drinks, woohoo! will be back later to check on our obsession.
Latest look at Key West radar shows bands heading for the lower keys, but the eye moving due west.
Let the observation continue....
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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press falling thanks jason
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Ok, I have NO CLUE as to where it's going....but if the 72 hour forecast for winds is correct, we are looking at a high Cat 3 or low Cat 4 hurricane. Let me just say if that is correct we all better start hoping like heck it goes back south, takes a right hand turn and heads westward until it lands in Hawaii as a tropical depression.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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ESE of Bermuda, expected to meander...just like Isidore...talk about teleconnections!
Isidore moving west for a while....time will tell.
IHS,
Bill
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