John C
Unregistered
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A low level circulation spinning off the east coast of Central Florida has many eyes’ open. Although the system has yet to produce any significant convection we still are watching its progress. I feel conditions are just not right for any major development of this system due to upper level winds and sea surface temperatures. But we will continue to monitor and watch the tropics. You can find some great discussions going on in the Forums on this system.
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Triopical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Even more on the links page.
- [jc]
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Well I have to agree with you John don't think much will come out of it other then what you currently see on satellite. 12/18Z models mainly ETA/AVN/NGM never close the low off while /ECMF/CANADIAN do,at least shortly. The front should come east and pick up what ever is left of it and swing it out to sea later in the week.
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Sorry I'am post #1. Forgot to login.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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think back to the summer of 2000, when that tropical depression with one thunderstorm was off canaveral. think further back to arthur in june 1996... exposed center as it moved along the outer banks. sort of blew our collective minds as to what could be classified a tropical cyclone.
here is my take: this is a tropical storm. only not at the surface. so basically all we need is a thunderstorm on one of the inner coils to bring some winds down to the SFC, and voila. hmm.. remember allison last year, as its subtropical remnant was camping on the nc coast.. same thing.. just needs a little spirit. watch it crash into a sea breeze front tomorrow and get going... or maybe the pressure falls as the ridge to its northeast pulls out will do it. either way there is a little coming to maybe give 91L a kickstart.
anyhow byett is the only person who has been mentioning long forgotten 90L down in the caribbean. looks as frisky as ever, meaning a broad SFC turning and a bunch of thunderstorms a couple hundred miles away. it hasnt gone away, therefore i continue watching. the pattern has resulted in both of these things persisting.. they WANT to happen. so until they fade away the chance is as good as ever.
by the way, rad.. is that any kind of example to set for us youthful hurricane watchers? all the stuff they dont include in the brochures that belongs in any hurricane survival kit.. heheh.
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Rad
Weather Guru
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Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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Not in the politically correct brochure !! But its always in RAD'S 
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Hurricane Junkie Survival Kit
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Beer
Chips
Nuts
Beer
Cookies
Gardettos
Crunch Berries
Batteries
Beer
Ice
Coals
Lighter Fluid
Beer
First Aid Kit
Appropriate supply of medication
Beer
Toilet Paper
Water
Beer
Cigarettes
LighterS
Sun Tan Lotion
Important Documents & Photos waterproofed
Beer
Ice
Steve
Edited by John C (Wed May 29 2002 11:34 AM)
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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New statement from ...
WONT41 KNHC 290248
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1045 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2002
SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 210 MILES EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT AROUND 5 MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED MORE THAN 120 MILES FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER OR NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS CLOSER TO THE WARM WATERS OF THE
GULFSTREAM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND
SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
FORECASTER STEWART
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Jason Kelley
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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One more tidbit - here is the latest run on the system - 23Z run using 18Z base data:
WHXX04 KWBC 282314
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL STORM INVEST 91L
INITIAL TIME 18Z MAY 28
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 29.4 76.9 275./ 8.0
6 29.2 77.6 251./ 6.6
12 29.4 78.1 288./ 4.8
18 29.8 78.4 321./ 4.9
24 30.1 78.8 317./ 5.0
30 30.2 79.3 281./ 4.9
36 30.7 79.8 313./ 5.8
42 31.3 79.8 356./ 5.9
48 31.8 80.2 324./ 6.7
54 30.6 83.8 251./32.5
60 30.8 83.5 49./ 2.8
STORM DISSIPATED AT 60 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
Cheers,
ED
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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tomorrow is probably the only day this thing can develop. it will be ashore by thursday. so it either gets some thunderstorms tomorrow or fizzles. i give it around 30%.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
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System off Florida this morning is absolutely devoid of convection around or near the center.
But guess what does have convection? How about our old disturbed area south of Jamaica! IR shows some really significant deep convection has exploded south of the Island. Now if the system off the coast of Fl had this convection then we would really have something to watch today.
Observations from the island indicate pressures prettly low at 1008 mb. Ship NE of Jamaica reported winds out of the SSE at 25 K, SST 80.2, pressure at 29.83 (this is several hundred miles away from main convection area)
First we all focused on the Caribbean (Thur/Fri/Sat/Sun), then the focus shifted off the SE coast of FL (Sun/Mon/Tues), and now could it shift back to the Caribbean?
Like watching a bad tennis match. I might develop carpal tunnel syndrome monitoring all this mess.
Need to add man's best friend to the hurricane list... Gotta have my hound dawgs for companionship as I evacuate the wife and kids...... (Rad will confirm)
Oh, and did Steve mention BEER....
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jth
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 275
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I had just been noticing our little friend down south. I just don't know where (if any) the circulation is. Add a good bourbon to the list. Beer just doesn't do the trick all the time.
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Anonymous(Doug)
Unregistered
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Yesterday the referenced the low in the Carribean as a broad surface low with a pressure of 1007mb, actually lower than the Atlantic low (1010mb)...what I see going on in the Carribean is what has been going on since last Thursday...there is a broad surface low, but there is an upper feature overriding it and the convection is in response to the upper feature (dry air)...not a tropical system at all...still a lot of shear west to east...
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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sea breeze front, later today. if not then its lots of waiting.
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GaryC
Weather Guru
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Posts: 109
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Well, up here in NE Fla we are getting some serious rain storms. If nothing else, the low is going to bring us some badly needed rain. I just hope it is nothing like Allison gave Texas last year. It would be real nice for it to sit out there for a few days and just soak us. Is the low bringing any rain to anyone else?
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Well have dropped 90L Invest (the area in the Caribbean). Interesting as it has some strong convection to the south of the broad circulation now!
Of course i know all the attention is on 91L of the east coast of Florida. This is a well defined low level system with no deep convection near the centre. It does have a nice appearance though, with the two spiral bands rotating in to the centre. THere is still a window of oppurtunity for this thing to develop, but its time is limited!
Well, there is little else to watch so i will keep an eye on both, but i dont expect anything significant to happen!
Rich
StormWarn2000
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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GaryC
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 109
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Hey, where are the steve's at? I figured on hearing from them by now.  Does anyone have any idea if there is a storm chasers group in Florida? I know that there are many in other states, but I have never heard of them in Fla.
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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I would also suggest a battery powered tv/radio combo. They always seem to come ashore on the week-end and power goes out as your favorite football team is fixing to kick off. I hope a lot of rain makers come this way as we are very dry. no big storms though.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Some small convection building up to the north side of the low off the Florida coast... potential for development IMO less than 10%.
Caribbean thunderstorms is getting killed with shear out of west... nothing happening here
Neither one of these systems are going to do anything.... Things could get really slow for a while....
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Listen, I talked to Jerry Springer and he definitely wants to book us for a show. ;-) You and Rad especially. I will be the "normal" one, okay? 
Hehehe. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Ok, I've been looking at those loops now and I must say that although there are not any big t-storms associated with it, it is still putting out an impressive spin. Also..looking to the east and south of that area and the GOM, it looks like it would not be a great day to be on a boat anywhere in this area. But I have a question:
Those storms that are currently headed south from Texas into the GOM? Is there any possiblity that once they hit the open waters that they could become something? Or just more bad weather for the evil oil rigs? I really am interested as there seems to be a lot of convection headed out into the Gulf.
Jerry Springer awaits. ;-)
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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