Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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Short wave in TX looks not too much different than the last one except it's got a hump and is a little further south. The main energy is sweeping through Northern MIssouri this morning. Set your WV to 30 frames and speed it up. This is now the 4th trof that has missed Isidore. Looks like the broader trof heading down to about 27 that you're talking about isn't going to bring it north today IMHO.
System is on track heading SW towards BOC - as predicted by the .
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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meto
Weather Guru
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i think it could turn north early and then more east.
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Loc: EC Florida
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That little shortwave off of Texas will do absolutely nothing to Isidore...he is a very strong hurricane and could easily manipulate the atmosphere around him. It takes a tremendously strong SW flow to turn a storm this far south and this strong. Don't expect a northerly component for a day or two, at least.
Kevin 
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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izzy going on land looks to be weekening
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Well water vapor loop over United States looks impressive to say the least in regard to the strong shortwave over TX. As far as I am concerned models look to be underdoing its intensity. I expect a northward track for little while then NE turn. So I'll continue with N FL landfall north of Ceder Key. I might as well go down with ship if I am wrong. Isidore looks outstanding in Vis/IR sat pics. Likely CAT 4 cane, with just holding off. So I believe a turn will begin at say 90/91w travel to 25n and turn NE. Will also need to keep close eye on TD#13 or likely Lili right now.
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Loc: EC Florida
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As of 11:00AM, TD#13 is moving west at 23 MPh, 5 MPh faster than at 5:00AM. Avila said this could be an open wave soon if it doesn't slow down...but he also said a decrease in speed is expected...most model guidence indicates this as well. Just given the fact this system sped up so quickly, it was probably just in an area of stronger steering currents. Almost everything favors a slow-down, so I'll go with this.
The new track for TD#13 is also more interesting. Given the fact that the system won't be quite as strong as previously thought, they are now forecasting it to go into the E. Caribbean Sea and move south of Puerto Rico and Hispanola. This probably isn't good for the US in the long-term, not only does it decrease early recurvature chances but also allows for significant strengthening after 72 hours.
Kevin
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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joe will it start turn today or when i say it will at some point come n/e al/fl but when santa will be here in 16 weeks
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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You've been on that for a few days. You even force-fed me a nylon cap over a temporary jog north while emerging from Cuba. Ultimately, I agree with what you are going with. But plenty of posters have questioned Isidore even crossing 85 and she's showing no signs of slowing (actually picking up some forward speed). Last update at 10 has it at 88.5. 's updated 72 hour forecast brings it to 93W.
But the real question is where will it be when it makes the turn? 12Z runs of all tropical models give landfall in TX or MX. (See Weather Underground's "Computer Models"). Their historical tracks are much the same. Every Cat 3, 4, or 5 except 1 that's been in Sepetember and made the longitude of Isidore and been within 300 miles of the center have made landfall in TX or MX also. One went in SW LA and turned west into Texas. As I said on Friday or yesterday morning (it's all blending together) was that Isidore would be an exception and will be carving out his own track for future reference. I still believe that. Unless the eventual trof that picks him up - which is what you and I are thinking - is slanted < 75 degrees, landfall will be between Galveston Island and Mobile. If the trof is tilted, it well could still hit the NW FL coast. I think the peninsula is out of the woods in this scenario. Of course all of this is subject to change.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Im originally from Mentor, Ohio about 25 miles NE of cleveland. It does get a bad rap, but the city is no different then Chicago, just that Chicago is bigger and has a championship team from time to time> Cleveland is a great city, but the most unluckiest city in sports anywhere in the world. Like Im from there, and Im not lucky, I dont even get a hurricane in Florida. Talk about unlucky.BTW the Browns will find another way to lose at the end again. scottsvb hurricaneupdatecenter, Not much for me to say on the Tropics today, just that Lilly will be named at 5pm and Isadore should still head towards Tampico by Weds. Note: Im never saying landfall will happen there, it just will get close, it might turn up off the coast then move NE and continue a bend even to the ENE and come across the N gulf along S of the southern jet. Then actually landfall could be from S eastern Louisiana- NW Florida/ Ill post more actually late tonight, Im going to watch football today!!!! There is no immediate threat.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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joe will it start turn today or when i say it will at some point come n/e al/fl but when santa will be here in 16 weeks
It turns when >you< say it will? Admit it. You are Matthew back for a guest star appearance.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Gofins13
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Loc: Crystal River,Fl.
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I hope no one gets hit with this monster--unfortunatley-someone probably will--our prayers will be out for them!
GO DOLPHINS
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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the h moving in from the north looks big is it going to be around for a while if so no north turn will happen
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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are right you called me out matts little brother pee wee great job but please be nice and have a great day guys
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mr jimmy
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Loc: Spring TX
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I agree with the "I'm big and bad enough to make my own track" theory for Iz. Gilbert in 1988 did not deviate from WNW track from 60W until well inland at Tex/Mex. Every forecaster kept predicting the recurve north, except Bob Breck, and he was the one that first made me aware of the above mentioned theory/fact.
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canman32
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Loc: Crstview Florida
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I dont think there is any way that Izzy wont turn north and maybe northeast in the future. What worries me is that if it does indeed go into a slow southwest motion it will not go as far west as expected before making that north turn.
This would put the eastern part of the gulf back into the picture.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Im here in Pensacola an dont know if I should prepare. It seems everyday the track shifts toward the west then 12 hours later its heading my way then it switches again. Its a pain in the neck. I agree that the storm may turn north then maybe northeast. Im just guessing can someone explain the reasons why this could happen so i can look into it more i'd appreciate it thanks kyle
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canman32
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Crstview Florida
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Hello Pensacola, I am 45 miles east of you in Crestview, I dont know how to explain the north turn, I assume a front is to pick up Izzy in a few days?
Even if it happens it would be 5-6 days or even longer before we need to worry to much. Just keep an eye open, I think we will know much more by Tuesday/Wednesday.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Here's Bastardi's thoughts - maybe they will shed some light:
AccuWeather.com > Home > News and Features
Joe Bastardi's Column
Joe's Winter Review is on-line, check it out!
Note from Joe: "I'm moving to
AccuWeather.com Professional!"
Meteorological Outlook: September 22, 2002
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The thoughts expressed in this column represent Joe Bastardi's personal speculation. While they are considered in formulating Accuweather forecasts, the opinions of many other Accuweather meteorologists are also considered.
This discussion is updated only the days that Joe is available, usually Monday-Friday. Check the date above and come back often!
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SUNDAY MORNING: ISADORE SHOULD MOVE OVER YUCATAN, DOES ANYONE ELSE SEE THAT?
I am convinced Isadore is going ashore this afternoon and tonight over the northwest Yucatan. The storm is embedded in a flow that is almost parallel to the coast, but with the weakening of the southern side of the storm over land, the northern side remains intense and literally forces a turn to the southwest. This means that the center should turn southwest and maybe even south. The more it does this, the less west it will get, and so the greater the chance for the hit on the United States. Only a straight west path argues for the Mexican coast now. The more southwest it goes, the less west it goes, and with the changes taking place it means that the storm will not be far enough west for it to avoid the rising heights to the east. Therefore the European is still my model of choice and the UKMET has come around to it.
This means option number 2, big storm hit Thursday or Friday, most likely Louisiana or a bit further east is the idea. By big storm I mean a strong 2 or a three 2. I think the Yucatan will take at least 30 mb out of this. However since final landfall is still at least 4 days away, there is a chance it could come back to the 934 it has hit this morning. In any case the idea is that this turns into a rapidly moving rainstorm coming right through the area that needs rain the worst from the last couple of months. Thats been my story and I am sticking to it.
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Kimster
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Dunedin, FL
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Interesting link..projects wave hts...
http://www.wunderground.com/MAR/atlm_wave_anim.html
Maybe Izzy will visit the entire coastline of the GOM then introduce itself to TD#13
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meto
Weather Guru
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Posts: 140
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look at the latest track that is quite a north turn. the wind behind the trof will be s.w. this causes the n.e ene direction.
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