canman32
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 11
Loc: Crstview Florida
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Weather Channel says it is just the eye closing that makes it look like it is going SE. Still due south right now??
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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I best line I've heard all year on the board was posted by you I think... and if you didn't say it then I apologize to the one who did... but it's a great quote... and it went something like..
"After I die just throw my ashes in the eye of a Cat 5".... amen brother.... nuff said...
I just want to really be dead if that were to happen... hehe
Edited by Frank P (Mon Sep 23 2002 12:57 AM)
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I've been watching both the IR loop and the Cancun radar...to me, there APPEARS to be a SLIGHT eastward component in that southerly drift. This is more evident in the Cancun radar. Around 7 pm, the eyewall was just east of Merida, but on the current image, the eye is definitely south of the city...and a bit further east. Maybe Isidore is navigating a loop??? This will be interesting to watch. If the westward track has truly stopped, then points much further east of the forecast could fall back under the gun.
On another note, the cloud tops are starting to warm under the influence of land interraction...so weakening is definitely under-way...however temporary that might be.
Lou
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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See if you see the sse movement. Zoom over center and choose black/white enhancement...
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goes8conusir.html
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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Any further south and it will miss the trough completely.With what Izzy is doing right now there still may not be a U.S. landfall afterall. I don't care what the models are saying because I don't believe any of them had Izzy moving inland as much as it has.
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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This may or may not be why its possibly moving sse/se. Take look at this WV, clouds around Isidore moving west to east. Note strong energy moving off TX and deepening.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Using the GOES IR navigational pointer for lat and long, Issy has not move much during the past 45 minutes, and the eye if filling in... here are my estimated locations for the center
at 0015 it was at 21.10N and 89.39W
at 0045 it was at 20.99N and 89.39W
at 0101 it was at 20.96N and 89.39W
thats only .04 degree south movement and no west motion in the past 45 minutes... and thats not moving much in my opinion... I can't detect any east component in its motion based on IR... yet
Questions beg to be asked now.
Is this the end of the west motion?
Is it now stationary?
Is it just a temporary stationary wobble?
Inquiring (but tired) minds want to know..
granted this is not a scientific method but does have some limited accuracy as long as the eye is visible....
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Southern4sure
Weather Guru
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Posts: 121
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
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I watched the USM/AL football game while I was in Gulf Shores......what did I tell you, AL would kick USM butt.
Southern
P.S. The waves were were really kickin it too! Pretty rough this weekend.
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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I do agree with you that it looks like the south motion has stopped. I don't know what this means,though. Maybe it will resume the westerly motion now or maybe it will start moving more towards the northwest. Then again, maybe it will just sit there and won't do anything but flood the Yucatan. On second thought, maybe it will start to push more towards the NE. My point is, I have no clue what this means. I do know that my prediction of a Mexico problem is looking pretty dim right now.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Remember a few days ago many of the models had a loop happening north of the Yucatan at this longitude. Since the storm never got that far north, maybe this is the loop they were predicting would occur just father to the south now. If it is, this storm is coming out in the Caribbean again. Cuba doesn't need any more rain.
--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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brew
Registered User
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Loc: Ocala, Florida
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We might be seeing a concentric curve setting up. If so watch out Cancun and Florida.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Southern..... You were right on that one for sure... Bama made the Eagles look like a Div II team.... congratulations to both you and Jason K for the big win... the best team won for sure... CUSA just not on par with the SEC....
At least the Saints came through in the clutch... so the weekend was not a total loss...
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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On the last IR loop I just looked at I think there was a little hint of a west "kick" again on the last frame. Need to see more though to make sure this actually happened.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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I just don't buy the loop scenario ... not quite yet... it looks almost stationary... to loop it has to be moving... and it has to get an easterly component with it, and this has not happened IMO... I have no idea what its going to do next but I'll tell you one thing, and I think everyone will agree, this has been one fantastic storm to track and try to figure out... maybe one of the best of recent years... and maybe just maybe, it might even get more interesting through time.. now that's a scary thought....
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BillD
User
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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Frank, I see the same thing. And I just put together three frames from the Cancun radar, which supports what we're seeing on the IR. Although there appears to be a bit of an east component in the last frame, the eye is breaking up, so its hard to tell.
If Isidore continues south, will he survive?
Bill
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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NOT MOVING THE FRONT IS DIGGING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD START WEST NORTH / WEST SOON AFTER THAT NORTH BY MONDAY NIGHT
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RickinMobile
Unregistered
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I see a slight jog...remember...when these things stop...that means they are changing directions...the influence of pulling into land is over, and it will now continue west...possibly a little north of west in a few hours....emerge back over the warm waters...and be a nasty cat 4-5....heading for the US mainland...
watch and see
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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At 0131 UTC per the GOES I have the center estimated at 20.95N and 89.42W...
thus during the past 75 minutes the system has moved .05 degrees N and .02 degrees W... that's basically stationary in my opinion... still no evidence of any eastward component.
like a slow game of chess with a lot at stake for the winner...
your move Isadore
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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Here are the new model runs (except for the ). Bottom line is that I guess I'm still not out of the woods.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200210_model.html
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Now that I am a bit rested and ready for what Izzy can throw at me, is it already too late? Has he given up??
Next few hours very important in the final evolution of Izzy...
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Jason Kelley
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