MikeC
Admin
Reged:
Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
4:30PM Update
Report from Barbados: Barbados Report
Wind from the ESE (120 degrees) at 47 MPH (41 KT) gusting to 75 MPH (65 KT)
Lili is nearing or at hurricane strength.
Isidore has stopped its southward motion... critical to watch for a northward turn now...
More later.
11:45 AM Update
Tropical Storm Lili has formed according to recon and the ... Next advisory will reflect it. Winds 50MPH.
Original Update
Apologies for the short update, but my day job is leaving me little time to analyze.
Isidore has weakened and has lost its main core eye, drifting over the Yucatan. I'm going to differ from most places now and suggest that it will not make the turn north--it may go back over water however. (I have more crow ready if this doesn't happen). However, even with that said, we all still need to watch it. Isidore will do what it wants to. I think this one isn't done with surprises quite yet.
The 's track takes it into the open Gulf and strethens it back to hurricane strength. However, not as extreme intensity wise as previous forecast tracks.
What would I go with, even with my own prediction? I wouldn't go with me... go with the ... I have more respect for them.
TD#13 looks ok, but moving a bit fast.. As the center is out under from all the convection. I still think we will see lili from it probably in short oder this afternoon (waiting on recon)
Cancun, Mexico Radar
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Multi-model Plots from WREL[/url]
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City Weather Audio Broadcast Network - Live Audio from Jim Williams and Barometer Bob , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.
- [mike@flhurricane.com]
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
11:00 am discussion
<<<<ISIDORE WAS MOVING 180/5...BUT RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THAT MOTION HAS CHANGED TO AN EASTWARD DRIFT...POSSIBLY AS PART
OF A LOOP. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTH TEXAS ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THIS...COMBINED WITH INCREASING RIDGING FORECAST BY THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS TO THE EAST OF ISIDORE...SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE
NORTHWESTWARD IN 12-24 HR AND NORTHWARD BY 72 HR. TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN INCREASING AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GREATEST
DIFFERENCES COMING IN SPEED. THE IS THE FASTEST...CALLING
FOR LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN 72 HR. GIVEN THE
LACK OF STRONG TROUGHING WEST OF ISIDORE...THIS APPEARS TO BE TOO
FAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE SLOWER...SIMILAR TO BUT
MOVED SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
INITIAL POSITION.>>>>
Intensity models are decreasing due to the collipse of the core wall and projections for it to weaken to minimal TS strength prior to getting back over water....... forecasted to 90k in 72 hours
|
Mike
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 40
Loc: Port St. John, Fla
|
|
Here is the first Vortex message for Lili:
000
URNT12 KNHC 231530
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/1500Z
B. 12 DEG 24 MIN N
59 DEG 27 MIN W
C. NA
D. 50 KT
E. 348 DEG 022 NM
F. 083 DEG 58 KT
G. 344 DEG 038 NM
H. EXTRAP 1004 MB
I. 23 C/ 338 M
J. 25 C/ 360 M
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/1
O. 0.1/5 NM
P. AF984 0113A CYCLONE OB 06
MAX FL WIND 58 KT N QUAD 1446Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.
Edited by Mike (Mon Sep 23 2002 04:07 PM)
|
HanKFranK
User
Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
|
|
12 named storms. that was my bet on the year.. and i dont think we're done. lili wont get much stronger until it slows to maybe 15mph. it has slowed some this morning.
as for isidore.. i see the drift in the recon fixes. i dont make anything of it. the system ran itself aground due to its own lopsided windfield from land interaction as opposed to normal steering.. now the system is moving erratically as normal steering forces are trying to assert control.
HF 1605z23september
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
Here's an updated note from Bastardi for all you doubters. He's going along with my thinking. Btw, lots of nervous old ladies at the office today making evacuation plans. I'm taking a vacation to my couch and front porch.
------------------------------------------
I have no changes on Isadore. It will probably come out later tonight about 40 mb higher than it went in( no surprise) and its playing possum. Fact is the the size of the storm is expanding and that is all going to be summoned toward it as it comes north, and it will come north. By possum I mean the storm is weakening at the center, but the structure is every bit as good or better. So I am confident of the forecast for a hit as as strong 2 or 3 in Louisiana probably Thursday. This is what has been said all along, even when it was stronger. Why? because if it had gotten to the western gulf as a cat 4 and stalled, it probably would have upwelled itself back to a 3 anyway. Since it did not do that, it has all that heat and energy still available in a favorable pattern to develop. So the moral is no change.
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
|
|
Anyone have any thoughts about Lili's possible threat to US?  Some models have her threatening South FL/Keys by late week. And some keep her in the Caribbean.
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
steve it will come N. But where is the key, it could push farther E to NW florida if it drifts more E and there is no NW motion before the N turn. Never know.
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Justin, Lili should be in the area of western Haiti just like Izzy in 72 hours, but should comeNW from there crossing cuba at some point. Yes, it could definitely threaten south Florida as it could strengthen to 100 knots. However, if the building ridge shows muscle it could also go in the GOM. But need to watch closely since it will be in Haiti/Jamaica area in 3 days. BTW, Looks like Izzy will make the move north. Over land he still looks good but lacking convection. That will come back as he has water on 3 sides. Cheers!! Steve H.
|
Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
|
|
Yikes,
I feel like I am in the middle of a shooting range with both storms out there! 
|
Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
|
|
At this point, I am very close to switching all my attention to Lili. I am not sure that Isidore is going to survive the Yucatan. Unless this predicted motion starts soon, I think Izzy could dissapate to an open wave in 24 hours. Even if Izzy does escape. I suspect minimal TS or TD when he gets back into the water. depending on timing, I'm not sure he will be able to spin up very rapidly. I'm thinking more of a Cat 1 on landfall if he survives.
--------------------
Jim
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Anyone else watching that area of disturbed weather just south of southwest Cuba? It almost looks like it is developing its own convection (as opposed to the general convection of Izzy) in the southeast quadrant...
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
There were some posts in here last week that said some models showed a development so fo Cuba--in fact, I think a Tallahassee AFD mentioned that Sunday. But, that was dismissed due to the strength if Isadore. So, now that Isadore is not so strong, hmm, all bets off> ??Looking at Cancun Radar this am btw, I saw a hook echo NNW of Progresso--somebody musta been getting a waterpout out over the Guld, or is was a mesocyclone..very distinct. This was about 7:30 this morning.
Tallahassee also was speculating on a fujiwahara..time will tell.
Interesting thought---what if Lilly runs into Isadore's outlfow, or a new storm.
I have never seen the tropics look this messy and still have trhee storms going!
BTW---not to pat self on back...but, my forecast in August was for an extremely busy mid/late September uptick, and overall busier later season...with 12-14 storms  . looks like I might have been a bit low.
The 1984 analogy still holds up in many ways too, I think (that was postulated in June).
IHS,
Bill
IHS,
Bill
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
Looking at both the Vis and IR loops I am having a hard time detecting motion... if anything Izzy might have wobbled off to the N or NNE in the last frame or two... but I am not sure at all... probably still stationary...
Edited by Frank P (Mon Sep 23 2002 05:41 PM)
|
Carl
Unregistered
|
|
The last few frames seem to show that the storm has finally begun to drift northward. We'll see on the next advisory.
|
clyde w.
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Bill,
Do you have a link to the Tallahassee discussion on the fujiwhara? Would make for interesting reading!
Thx,
Clyde
|
Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
|
|
Something occured to me, and looking at some of the 6Z runs of the , it kind of fuels my curiosity.... Is there too much tropical activity for the models to handle right now? Just an observation of the conflicting runs of the 6Z runs for Isisdore and Lili. Isidore's Takes Isidore into La in 72 hours as a cat 1 and into Canada by 120. Lili, on the Isidore run, ends up as an open wave in the western Carib. Now in the 6Z run for Lili, at 84 hours, Izzy makes landfall as a cat 1 on the la/TX border. Hurricane Lili is over Western Cuba. Then it really gets interesting, Lili's run leaves Izzy Meandering about the La/Tx border through 120 hours and has a cat2/3 hurricane very near the SW Florida coast at 120 hours. Two runs of the same models with slightly different focuses and two tottaly different outcomes. I'm not even going to throw kyle into this. Of course, this is just looking at the becuase it offers us a specific focus. I just wonder how much trouble the other models have with the interaction of all the activity.
--------------------
Jim
|
caneman
Unregistered
|
|
NHC 2:00 discussion says it should move North in next 12 to 24 hours. This is a departure in the NW thinking and track and could result in an eastward shift of a hundred or two hundred miles. Wait and see if it even survives.
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
Actually the 1:00 pm CDT advisory states the following... unless you have another statement that contradicts this one.... and I guess any thing and every thing is possible with this storm
<<<A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.>>>
Edited by Frank P (Mon Sep 23 2002 06:22 PM)
|
HanKFranK
User
Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
|
|
while all of the forecasting chaos has been going on close to home, that little system behind lili has started showing signs of organization. one piece split off and went northwest, the rest is following the .. it was the northwest piece that was written off due to shear, but it is actually holding down a convective mass and appears to have banded low level clouds feeding into it. there hasnt been an invest put on it, but a couple of models i summarily discounted foresaw this feature riding nw, and curving east under the deep trough in the eastern atlantic. theres still a lot of shear up there and waters near 18/37.. close to its location.. are marginal. but there it is, holding down convection all the same. the wave that came off to its southeast by the way is looking healthy convection-wise.
closer in, more models taking kyle further south and west now. run even has it to 25/60. note that kyle isnt moving much.. it would have to deepen to really get caught in the NE flow. then again its appearance has been improving since it reached the top of its loop last night and was getting sheared as it dissociated from the upper trough that was letting go. kyle is out in fish country, but if some models are to be believe then it could be pretty close to bermuda in a few days.
lili... more intense on the 2pm mini advisory.. but i can see the LLC racing ahead again. note how far to the south it is entering the caribbean.. it's going into the 'hurricane graveyard'. im not ready to buy the more zealous forecasts on this storm just yet. it's still trying to race and in a historically bad place for hurricanes. until it slows down i wont be fully convinced of its threat.
swirl off nc has some convection forming on the west flank. water temps are supposed to be at support threshhold as far up the coast as south jersey, so this could become a good coastal rainstorm before it reaches southeast new england. further south there is talk of a siamese twin to isidore forming near cuba/bahamas. nothing overtly suggestive at this point, but still the nagging feeling that models are on to something, if not the details about that something.
isidore.. the big story still. my ideas still follow that it will re-enter the gulf and head nw, then north.. but getting less and less sure about the future west movement. coincidentally, storm hasnt crossed 90w. wouldnt it be hilarious if it never does.. after my concession the other day? ah well, i'll join the 'general warning' crowd and say 'all interests from texas to florida should monitor the progress of this system'. isnt that dull?
i slid to option three.. se louisiana to ms/al coast this morning. staying there for now. cat 3 intensity sounds good to me.
HF 1837z23september
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Unfortunately, the Tallahassee discussion was yesterday afternoon on IWIN , and it isn't retrievable now unless you can find it somewhere else.
I noticed that MIA (I think it was) in one of the AFDs today had the same question I did about Lilly running into Isadore's outflow and getting shredded.
I too think the models may be getting messed up by too much tropical activity.
IHS,
Bill
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
