Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Looking at the loops this morning, the area near Jamaica is definitely rotating. The convection may have died down a bit but it's still there. Doesn't seem to have moved much.
Well, we'll just have to wait and see. And I think HF is right...the area near Mexico sure looks good. I think Boris will be here before Monday.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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JustMe
Weather Guru
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Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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I would judge that at least Florida will see some needed rain from the arear near Jamica if all goes as is.
Waiting for the first real happening in the Atlantic or Gulf.
Have a great day all
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I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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WATCH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN!!!!!
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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>>WATCH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN!!!!!
Why?
Steve
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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I said that because I was tired of every time I got on this site I was seeing only 21 posts. What happen to all you weather freaks out there?This site had more comments on it a month before the season even started than what we have now after it has started.Maybe we need to bring John from S. Florida back or something.Heck, if Joe B. can sit around and throw a bunch of garbage out about what will develop and what won't than why can't I.I have never seen a guy with the ego he has that can not even come close to backing it up. All he is is a glorified one of us who post on this site.There are more than a few,myself not included,that could do just as good of a job as he does and without the sickening arrogance that he has.He is so quick to point out when Accuweather said something two or three weeks ago that the models are now jumping on, but does he ever make the same big deal when he is wrong,which is most of the time? Spare me the " he is the only one that is willing to go out on a limb" stuff because that is what we all do on this site. When we make our "bold" predictions, we are going out on a limb. Maybe he thinks just because he works out that his ego has to match his biceps.By the way,I certainly wouldn't brag because the models agreed with me; we all have seen how unreliable these models can really be. Go ahead and bash me if you want but this is MY opinion and I'm entitled to it. You don't have to agree!!!! If nothing else at least maybe I started something here that you can all respond to since there is no action in the tropics right now.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Shawn, i for one am not gonna bash ya!
Interesting area of convection in the Bay of Campeche this morning! Associated with a weak low... not likely to develop just yet though. The pattern needs to change across the region for anything to get going really. However, i still think we will see a June system, and i still reckon it is likely to be in the Gulf or the Caribbean.
Rich
StormWarn2000 IWN
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I ain't gonna bash you either. June has been kind of hit and and miss. There has been a ton of activity, just nothing getting organized. All of the models except the AVN have backed off on development off of Florida. Some of them (GFDL & ) are now hinting at something in 3-4 days anywhere from Yucatan down to Nicaragua. has the most interesting solution out to 120, but I'm betting it's just another convection complex. Like I said, there have been several of them and some surface lows, just nothing that has really had a shot at developing.
http://www.essc.psu.edu/rhart-cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2002060906-boris02e&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=120hr
Steve
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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shawn.. why the whiny post? does people not talking when nothing is happening bother you or something?
eeeeasy dude. its early june, and you can't have allison every year. so there arent a lot of posts... well, nothing that convincing on the models, and nothing that interesting to look at on the satelite. unless shear and clear skies does it for you. what i'm saying is, you sound upset and i don't see why.
by the way, why do people knock joe b? now i feel like saying something. i can understand criticizing his delivery because he does spend too much time being defensive or self-righteous, but name me one person who makes better long range forecasts or outlines weather teleconnections better and i'll listen to your argument. very few people in the weather business discuss long range possibilities the way he does, so you cant really compare him to anyone else convincingly. its his thing.. if you dont like looking down the road, read the daily bulletin--no development through monday--and leave it at that.
hmm what else.. oh..
ripleys believe it or not!
bull had 30 cats and 13 children
rectory mean haunted house
there, nostalgia for those of you who miss paloma (weird)
or would you rather read about my running war with the beavers? they rebuilt those dams within hours, now we're bush-hogging a trail along the creekside, periodically draining the flooded land, cutting the channel, and hoping they get the message and relocate. those evil buck toothed bastards.
such is the situation, sunday, june 9th, 5:59 p.m. eastern daylight time, in the year of our Lord 2002. amen.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I wasn't knocking Joe B; I read and view his stuff every day. I just wasn't bashing Shawn for his opinion.
Steve
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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HF good post
I agree with most of what you said, heck it is only June and I can remember many of Junes with nothing to track. Things will get a lot more interesting in Aug and Sept... no doubt.
And at least with Joe B. you have someone who is not afraid to discuss in detail his analysis and forecast for the tropics... Now compare his effort with that of ... To me its all about effort and Joe B doesn't come up short in that department. Yeah yeah yeah, so he's not always right, so what? At least he attempts to make it interesting....
As for that wierdo paloma .... fuhgetaboutit.... hehe
Back to the tropics, big flare up of convection west of Jamaica this morning with some really intense cold tops just off the western tip of the island....... Another area off to the northeast of Cuba and east of the Bahamas... at least its something to look at... I need to see do some more investigation to figure out what, if anything, is going on...
later
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Well, there is really nothing all that interesting going on out there, and if I sit here at the computer all day staring at loops, then I am accomplishing nothing. I don't have to be here 24/7 to be interested in the weather. If there's nothing to say, there's nothing to say so why waste your time? I have 2 kids to take care of that are home for the summer, and I can't spend all my time on the computer watching loops showing me nothing.
And I am certainly not going to bash Joe B. just because you don't like him, Shawn. He is a good meteorologist and he may be a bit egotistic, but so what? Most of us are in our own way. We all have SOMETHING to be proud of, do we not? And I not gonna sit here and get into an argument with you or anyone else just to take up bandwidth. That's childish and immature.
So now I told you like it is. IF you don't like it, sorry. I just tell like I see it, and for the life of me, I don't know why people have to whine about there NOT being a tropical system out there. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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For some reason I can't remember to log on. The post above Colleen's was mine...
Oh now I know, I'll be 50 on Sunday... that's certainly reason enough to forget...
Frank P.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Hahaha!!! You know what? I knew it was you who posted that...you left your trademark...the "hehehe". I would recognize that anywhere. ;-)
BTW...Happy Birthday! 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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My father has the same birthday as you. No wonder I like ya so much. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Make sure you go to the Storm Forum and read Ed Dunham's updated forecast for this year. I replied to his post and would like some of you to reply to my ideas about this hurricane season. 
Hint about my new thoughts on 2002: molasses and peanut butter mixed together are the main ingredients for this year. 
No, it's not some kind of riddle,
Kevin 
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Well I'am not going to bash you Shawn. I agree with everything you said. I never really paid any attention to his crazy forecast. He's goes way to far with his predictions. Plain and simple!
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Eyes South for the next couple of days...that is a fairly extensive and complex TW drifting nw across the W.Carribean, Cuba and the Bahamas...the western most complex of that system has some interesting characteristics...the may have some cedibility to it...long way to go but...it is certainly an attention getter...Doug.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Agree Doug, been watching that area grow. Nice waves in the atlantic also. Another early tight Low coming off Africa. Season ants to pop....still waiting. Cheers!! Steve H.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Interesting tidbit here from the discussion: MODELS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE DEVELOPMENT/TRACK OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT MAY ARISE FROM CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OBSERVED OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO ATTM APPEARS TO TAKE ANY SYSTEM THAT DOES DEVELOP SUFFICIENTLY FAR
ENOUGH E THAT THE SOUTHEAST COAST WOULD NOT BE AFFECTED. My question is, if it does indeed develop, how does it get from the western Carib far enuf east not to affect the SE?? Especially this time of year. I don't think the deep trough expected over the NE will move it that faar ENE. In the Fall yes, but not in June. I guess we'll see if it develops first. Steve H.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Well, it looks like something just might be brewing!
The trough and TW that is kicking off the convection over Cuba, NW Carib, and the Bahamas is trying to develop a couple of surface lows. With the convective activity we may see something get going out of all this. I see the area forecast discussion for Miami shows that TPC expect to develop a system!
Well i will be watching the Page for any possible invests.
Rich
StormWarn2000 IWN
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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