Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Well, I looked at those sat loops and unless I have learned zip zero nada, if that "circulation" has any chance of all of making itself into anything, the winds are going to have to die down (it looked as though the cloud tops were being blown off) before it does anything. I also noticed that the wind flow seems to be coming in from the west or is about to.
Well, if I am wrong about this, please feel free to lower my 3 star rating to a O rating. Just my own unedudimacated opinions. ;-)
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
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Gee, back up to 4-Stars.... The only star I care about is the "Star Spangled Banner"... thanks anyway Shawn...
Hey Colleen, I think HF has the right attitude by not logging on with a username... by doing so he eliminates the rating system, as well as the weather titles and number of posts...
Convection off the east coast of Fl still there tonight, however, looking at the bouys in the area, pressures are relatively high with insignificant wind fields to report as well. System looks pathetic at the moment... don't expect much with it...
Early July not a very active time for tropical development.. so I'm not expecting much...
Edited by Frank P (Tue Jul 02 2002 04:09 AM)
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Rain, Rain Go Away!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Enough already!!!!!!!!!
Record rainfall for the month of June at Palm Beach International Airport. A monthly total of 20.16" of rain fell. This is the greatest ever in June and the 2nd greatest ever for any month (Sept. 1960 - 24.86"). That month had 2 hurricanes, Donna and Florence. Normal for June is 7.58". WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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yesterday i was thinking 20% on the east-of-florida system..
well, take it up to about 35. pretty much every model is developing a low east of the state today and taking it northeast. by thursday morning more or less every one has it east of virginia as a 1008-1010mb type low.
so where's the low now? well there is a lot of turning around florida.. some of it is related to the upper trough across the SE, but there is turning below it at the mid levels and weak low level troughing too. basically two events need to happen for this system to come to life--1)sustained burst of convection to focus a dominant vortex 2)associated pressure falls.... the question is, can the atmospheric dynamics in the region support it? i always wonder if sea-breeze convection will trigger such a system, when all it needs is a little focused push.
as usual exactly where such a focal point comes into existence is what will decide the future of such a system. the further east the low develops, the less likely the system will come close enough to be a bother. on the other hand closer in, say over florida or right on the east coast, there is less of push from the upper trough since it wont be connected to the jet max on the trough's east flank. this way you get an erratic system, maybe one that doesnt move steadily northeast and catch the next amplification so cleanly. maybe a stair stepper or one with small cyclonic loops and hairpins.
just a word of mention that this next amplification, a shortwave zipping along for new england, is forecast to re-establish the upper system over the canadian maritimes and make an amplified trough, one that will reflect down through the bermuda ridge and make a disturbance well off the east coast next week... by the . mrf also has a big amplification about 8-10 days away.. all that said, i dont put stock in either system, they are model fantasies days away. what i do put stock in is the continuation of the pattern they are suggesting. maybe the troughs arent backing up so well, but they are still splitting. i heard bastardi talk about it, i looked for it, i saw it... these sorts of summertime amplifications can send weather into the subtropics this time of year where it usually isnt, where it could possibly stir up.
since the african waves this year have been rather lackluster so far (the early season waves were pretty mean looking in previous years), this action of upper systems cutting away is probably the only way something will develop in the near future.
by the way, anybody who wants some good summer climatology education, read bastardi today. props to the man. guys like him and d'aleo at intellicast, ya gotta love their stuff. weather reporting usually has this canned feel to it, they break the mold and make freakin editorials, with their forecasts and ideas staked out and defended, and taken past where the risk concerned meteorology community normally dares to take the public. sort of like the meteorological equivalent of o'reilly.
anyhow, nuff said. watch the system around florida, and even the goofy little convective trough east of bermuda if you want to miss nothing, no matter how small.
HanKFranK aiken, sc 1535z02july
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Well, it finally looks (to me anyway) as if Arthur may be just around the corner. The area off of the southeast U.S. is getting a bit better organized (5:30 ) and is developing some convection of the stronger variety (per my observations). I'll say a tropical depression by late Thursday or early Friday morning. If there's nothing by then, Arthur will have to wait. At least a 45 % chance of development. As a side note, the African wave train is starting to get it's act together will some pretty strong "blobs" emerging onto the continent right at 10N. Things are starting to improve, as expected. Still, with low SSTA anomalies from the positive NAO, I don't expect a real active East Atlantic season. The activity should be closer to home this year.
Here's a real intersting poll (people into the long-term prediction things will love this one). 
I know, it's way out and we have more than a half a season left, but it's just for fun. 
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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That last post was from me, Kevin, btw.  I seem to do this too often. I must be losing it already!  
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Mattthew
Unregistered
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The Nation hurricane center is now saying that this area is getting better with time. I will say that there three areas the main one just north of the islands and the other northeast of it that already has turning and the upper low still over land that looks like it has thunder storms and moving slowly eastward that may make the atantic and and 12 or so hours. The most northeast one has turning and some thunderstorms but it only has 12 hours to get its act together and than cooler waters and alreadly it look like it losing thunderstorms. all say 10 percent. The on just north of the island is geting better and that upper low might sand a spin up soon this might by the first system of the season all say 70 percent by early thursday of the upper low do's not kill it off. the upper low might came off and with thuderstorms might do a fill low leavel heating and this has the chace. Keep this up dated
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Matthew
Unregistered
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It looks like it will take a track like ana of 1997 [image]http://ana 1997[/image]
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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most of the convection in the area just broke down in the last few hours. not just the convergence over florida but most of it offshore as well. hard to tell if anything is going on with all the shear, but on the ir2 you can still see the kink in the low level flow. the system hasnt hit it off yet, and there have been only modest pressure falls with the surface high retreating (more heating over the east). so scratch the confidence back to down to 25%.. those model solutions making a low had to mean something. maybe not a named system, but at least a discrete low pressure system.. come on.
have to see if they keep insisting on development.. remember that low in may formed days after models first jumped on it (and never amounted to anything). by the way, the old cutaway energy is still dousing texas. if that thing would have stalled in the gulf.. probably allison redux.
polls are popular, might as well throw this one out:
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Matthew
Unregistered
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Boring season so far!. Ever thing fall apart like nomal and the pacific system is now more and nothing texas is flooding and the fire are going off all over the u.s and this is the season for upper leavel lows this might be want starts the season later with all these upper low and octember we might see all are storms form from upper low!!!
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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back where we started yesterday morning. same general setup around florida, models coughing up the same solutions. if all goes as and avn are saying, we have a disturbance deepening east of the outer banks this evening. of course confidence i still reckon around 30% or so until we get a low as opposed to a trough off the east coast.
ah, the poll. remember, poll stops are an important, key feature in poll design. not to be made when one is a sleepless zombie.
there.
HanKFranK 3.07 aiken, sc 1325z03july
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