HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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gray adds another system. the analog years speak volumes about how much real risk there is--all active seasons with little in the way of u.s. landfalls (minus carla in 1961). that's been the trend of the last decade, so probably nothing new for 2004. lots of stuff to track, and not a lot of trouble from it. perhaps i'm understating the risk, but usually you get closer to the truth that way. will have a deep layer low in the central atlantic southeast of bermuda this weekend, but of course it's april and it shouldn't do anything.
0155z09april
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summercyclone
Unregistered
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Wow Hurricane, that was a great link. I was glad to see it, because I just happened to look at a whole disk picture the same time the other storm was off SA and wondered why no one was noting it!
Twice in one year...something IS up!
SC
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JustMe
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Can't wait for the season to get here
I think we are going to have a most interesting season if all predections hold true.
I will be watching the season for sure
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I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,
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JustMe
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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YES thank you I can post again!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I missed this a lot....
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I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Hey guys, i'm back for 2004 and will be posting my thoughts from over here in the UK. What about that SA Hurricane - it certainly was something wasn't it!?! I am still trying to gather as much information as i can about it, and will be preparing an online report over at CycloMax dealing with this storm.
However, the real point of my post is the development to the NE of the Lesser Antilles! Has anyone else noticed this? Apparently the folks at have, as in the latest TWD they talk of some possible development, and a few models hint at this becoming a warm-core low pressure system!! I know its early, but dont forget Ana formed in April last year! Anyone have any thoughts on this?
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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yeah rich, i do. its april its april its april, that's not supposed to happen. still, i've been watching it too since happening to notice that conspicuous non-frontal low on the models for this weekend, back on late wednesday. checked the visible loop twice today; same hunch. didn't know the discussion had anything, suppose i'll have to go read it. after all the out-of-season systems lately the has its guard up. since we're on a run of oddballs, why not have an easter tropical cyclone?
before reading your post i was going to only mention the SST profile in the eastpac.. cold tongue more pronounced than it has been for a couple of years. looks to be tilting back that way--expect my 11 system guesscast for 2004 from november will tank worse than any yet, at this point.
HF 2102z09april
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Steve Hirsch
Unregistered
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Yes, agree Richard. This is a very impressive low pressure system developing in the Atlantic. Models have been showing development in this area for the past few days, and tonights pix are showing circulation and some intense t'storm development. Let's see if upper level winds will allow further deepening. The models yesterday showed this low heading to the north between the ridges, but it could hang around a few days (Ana revisited?). Long range models also show the active, with areas of low pressure uner 1008 mb. The eastern Atlantic is warm early this year, and with rising heat lowering the pressures out there, could be an active CV season. That coupled with the neutral conditions should make for an exciting summer. Cheers!! PS: I could log on with my password, but couldn't post under steve h. What's up with that?? :confused:
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JustMe
Weather Guru
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Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Steve I had the same trouble but they did get mine fixed
going ot be a very interesting year for sure
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I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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I have been WOWED by the warming the Atlantic has seen in the past couple of weeks. We could see some crazy stuff this season if the various other factors are favorable.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTIS/US058VMET-GIFwxg.OTIS.glbl_sstanomaly.gif
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.4.6.2004.gif
Opposite the Atlantic, the cool tongue in the eastern Pacific is persisting. We'll have to watch during the summer....
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Jamie
Unregistered
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Cyclomax UK ( Tropical Cyclone Formation Alerts ) has issued a Tropical Cyclone formation alert for an area of thunderstorms in the central atlantic. Does anyone else see potential for development here, as i can't seem to find anything referencing development from the or .
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2cyclone/tcgts/wtnt80.txt
Will this be ALEX or nothing will come out of this area? If it develops it will be history once again for a second year in a row.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Hey guys,
models have been hinting at development in this general area for a few days now, so perhaps persistence is the key! Satellite imagery shows the convection remains elongated along the trough axis. think the low will merge with another low to its northwest, perhaps this might give it the kick to develop further. Its only April, but i think this area bears watching still 
Regards
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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JoshK
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 2
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It doesn't look that promising, but hey, who knows? 
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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The low pressure area has now degenerated into a surface trough... looks like we are gonna have to wait a little longer for something to happen... but hey, the season begins in a few weeks
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Hurricane
Unregistered
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Ir satellite of a area of low pressure at 20 south 25 west.
http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus/AI/200404151200AI1_g.jpg
http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus/AI/200404151800AI1_g.jpg
http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus/AI/200404160000AI1_g.jpg
http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus/AI/200404160600AI1_g.jpg
http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus/AI/200404161200AI1_g.jpg
This area of low pressure/possible tropical cyclone moved into dry air in died.
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summercyclone
Unregistered
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The links all require a password to get in to them.....
SC
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Hurricane
Unregistered
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Yes but you can sign up for free
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summercyclone
Unregistered
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I filled out the subscription form, but, no e-mail as indicated with a password has been received , fyi.
SC
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MoparMitch
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 28
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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I completed the form and got a password. All is ok, but unless you live in the north atlantic, this is not much use. The only good imagery is of the entire earth, but cannot seem to get specific tropical imagery. If I have missed something, please let me know.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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there apparantly were already two South Atlantic TC's before March
http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2cyclone/tcimages/Misc/V910413.gif
http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2cyclone/tcimages/Misc/jan2004sat.gif
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