Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Rabbit:
Right you are - the South Atlantic has been unique in its tropical activity this winter as a 'split' on the was forced far to the south in the western south Atlantic. Normally the resides exclusively in the northern hemisphere because of the tilt of the earth's axis, i.e., the Trade Winds in the Northern Hemisphere and the Trade Winds in the Southern Hemisphere collide just north of the Equator and form the . Why was it quite different this year - I haven't got the slightest idea - but it did! What might it mean for the north Atlantic season? Also no idea - makes me wonder if Cape Verde waves will dive too far south to amount to much. Things can change a lot though in the next couple of months - its that time of year.
Cheers,
ED
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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it is not in the atlantic, but you all may want to have a look at this
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/HPIR.JPG
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LI Phil
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Rabbit, welcome aboard.
Interesting...however if you look at that image on GOES loop, it's not really that impressive. The folks on this board aren't really concerned with hurricanes that are not in the (North) Atlantic basin, and the only reason the "Hurricane" Catarina in SA was posted because it's such a rare event. If you click on the "Forum" link on the upper left, you'll be taken to a page with different topic choices. You might want to post EastPac news in the "Other Storm Basins" thread. 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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The reason i put a pacific satellite is because the EPAC has only had storms from May to November. This would be the first in April, like the Atlantic last year. Also, I have been here before under the name BugsBunny, but my password was erased.
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LI Phil
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Bugs/Rabbit...sorry, didn't mean to offend. You're entirely correct that the EASTPAC has never had an April TS. However, in 1992 there was a CAT 3 in January (!) and a TS in late March. Weird year, that one. No other year since 1949 has there been a TS or higher before May. BTW, I think Daffy Duck ate your password 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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summercyclone
Unregistered
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Eureka and Hallie were in Cenpac, not EastPac...plus, what happened to F ang G storms...not sure this info is correct....
SC
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summercyclone
Unregistered
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Truth is stranger than fiction! Note they also got it wrong on intensity= 100kts is a Cat 3, not Cat 2 as indicated my Honolulu-they probably confused knots and mph.
Here is the info---not sure why they got out of order on names:
January 28 - February 4, 1992 (HURRICANE EKEKA)
Hurricane EKEKA was a rare out of season tropical cyclone that formed close to the Equator in the vicinity of Christmas Island. This was the first central North Pacific hurricane observed during the month of January since the advent of weather satellites in the 1960s.
EKEKA formed within a large area of deep convection close to the Equator that had been observed by satellite for a number of days. Several ship reports as early as January 23 had indicated squalls and strong southwesterly winds just north of the Equator to the south and southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.
The first advisory on Tropical Depression ONE-C was issued by the CPHC at 280900Z with a position of 04.7N 157.8W within the Line Islands just north of Christmas Island and just east of Fanning Island. ONE-C intensified rapidly and became a Tropical Storm EKEKA (Hawaiian for Edgar). EKEKA was upgraded to a hurricane at 300000Z as it moved slowly west northwest toward the Dateline, staying well south of Johnston Island. Peak intensity was estimated at 100 knots and was reached on February 2 with EKEKA nearing 10N 175W. A large trough in the upper westerlies began to have detrimental effects on the hurricane as it neared the Dateline on February 4. Vertical wind shear caused EKEKA to lose strength rapidly and the system was barely of tropical storm intensity as it crossed into the Western Pacific near 09N 180 at 041800Z and became the responsibility of the on Guam.
The downgraded the weakening tropical storm to a depression at 041200Z. The depression continued to move west through the Marshall Islands and did not cause any known problems. EKEKA was put to rest by the on February 8 when its remnants were near 06N 150E.
1992: Hurricane Ekeka Date/Time
(UTC) Latitude
(N) Longitude
(W) Pressure
(mb) Wind Speed
(kt) Stage/Notes
01/28/0600 4.5 157.0 30 Tropical Depression
1200 4.8 157.5 30 "
1800 5.2 158.0 35 Tropical Storm
01/29/0000 5.5 158.5 40 "
0600 5.7 159.0 45 "
1200 5.9 160.8 50 "
1800 6.0 162.5 55 "
01/30/0000 6.0 163.5 65 Hurricane Cat. 1
0600 6.1 164.2 65 "
1200 6.1 164.7 70 "
1800 6.2 165.2 75 "
01/31/0000 6.3 166.2 75 "
0600 6.5 167.2 75 "
1200 6.9 168.3 75 "
1800 7.4 169.5 85 Hurricane Cat. 2
02/01/0000 8.1 171.1 90 "
0600 8.4 171.9 90 "
1200 8.8 172.8 90 "
1800 9.0 173.3 90 "
02/02/0000 9.2 173.7 100 "
0600 9.3 174.2 100 "
1200 9.5 174.6 90 "
1800 9.6 175.1 90 "
02/03/0000 9.6 175.7 80 Hurricane Cat. 1
0600 9.7 176.4 50 Tropical Storm
1200 9.5 178.0 40 "
1800 9.4 180.0 40 "
March 28-30, 1992 (TROPICAL STORM HALI)
Warm water on the Equator to the south of the Hawaiian Islands early in the year had the effect of producing some very active deep convection and heavy rains near the Equator from the Dateline eastward to the coast of South America. This is typical El Nino weather during the northern hemisphere autumn and winter months when the otherwise sunny and dry Line Islands get inundated by torrential rains and the pleasant trade winds are replaced by humid westerly winds. These conditions are also conducive for the development of tropical cyclones.
Hurricane EKEKA formed within this area of heavy convection in late January near Christmas Island and moved west northwest toward the Marshall Islands. This very unseasonable tropical cyclone activity repeated itself in late March as Tropical Depression -C developed on the 28th within a cluster of deep convection near 05N 170W. The depression intensified slowly and was upgraded to a Tropical Storm HALI (Hawaiian for Holly) on March 29. HALI peaked at about 45 knots in the area near 07N 175W on the 29th, weakened rapidly, and dissipated on the 30th as strong upper southwesterlies sheared its top off and caused the system to break up.
1992: Tropical Storm Hali Date/Time
(UTC) Latitude
(N) Longitude
(W) Pressure
(mb) Wind Speed
(kt) Stage/Notes
03/28/0600 5.2 172.2 25 Tropical Depression
1200 5.3 172.8 25 "
1800 5.4 173.0 30 "
03/29/0000 5.5 173.2 30 "
0600 5.6 173.5 30 "
1200 5.7 173.8 40 Tropical Storm
1800 5.9 174.0 45 "
03/30/0000 6.3 174.2 45 "
0600 6.5 174.9 35 "
1200 6.7 175.3 30 Tropical Depression
1800 7.0 175.5 25 "
sc
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summercyclone
Unregistered
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Make that Ekeka and Hali--aloha folks!!
sc
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Re: f & g storms: CenPac's alphabetical order differs from North Altantic's, presumably because some sounds (e.g., f & g) are not used in many of the Central Pacific languages (e.g., Hawai'in). CenPac's names consist of four lists of names beginning with the letters A, E, H, I, K, L, M, N, O, P, U, and W. According to the 's website: "The names are used one after the other. When the bottom of one list is reached, the next name is the top of the next list."
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LI Phil
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They sure were C-PAC storms, but why then did Unisys (who usually are meticulous in their record keeping) place them on their East Pac list? And I suppose Iniki, also from 1992, would also be considered C-Pac? My bad on the East Pac call, but I figured since Unisys put them on the East Pac list, then they must be East Pac storms. Gotta check those names...that tells the whole story 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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just checked site, and they've decided not to retire ANY storms from last year. Since when does a hurricane that kills 45 and cuases billions in damage not deserve a retired name?
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LI Phil
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I agree Bugs. HanKFranK opined on that very subject several posts ago. Juan in Nova Scotia, Fabian in Bermuda and Isabel-just cause she was a Cat V at one (actually two) point. You had to figure they'd retire at least one of those names. Very surprising.
Here's a link to the site on retired names. It hasn't been updated since 2002, but it's still useful.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Fri Apr 23 2004 09:21 PM)
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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CONUS drought trend. If you have high-speed, this is the 12 week progression.
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/thumbnails/12_week.gif
If you have low-band, this is Thursday's map:
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html
Streve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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summercyclone
Unregistered
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I was just browsing for fun and looked in on the Falkland Islands and the British S. Atlantic Territories, of which Tristan De Cunha is one; this is an excerpt from the description of a book about the Island:
"This well-written book, published by Battlebridge Publications, details briefly a concise history of the Island from its discovery in 1506 by the Portuguese navigator, Tristao da Cunha, to its modern day events, including the 21 May 2001 hurricane that devastated the Island. Many black and white photos depict the Tristan of today, its people and life, as well as leisure activities. Newer photos show the damage the 2001 hurricane did to the Island’s infrastructure."
Anybody know anything about THIS "hurricane"???
sc
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summercyclone
Unregistered
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WOW! Look at this, and see especially the comments about global warming!
NOTE: I did a search in Jeeves for "hurricane and Tristan De Cunha and came up with a mother lode, including a Met Office discussion complete with charts and sat pics. The storm started as a cold low and became tropical, moved towards Brazil...sound familiar???
S.Atlantic : Official Hurricane Report
Submitted by SARTMA.com (Juanita Brock) 17.11.2003 (Current Article)
On 21 May 2001, Tristan suffered a devastating hurricane where every building on the Island, save, St. Joseph's Catholic Church, was damaged.
Photos (c) James Glass
Hurricane hits Tristan da Cunha
Monday 21 May 2001
The Hospital Damage was tragic. A new X-Ray machine can cost as much as £600,000.00
Following is the official report that was written by James Glass, Chief Islander and Acting Administrator of Tristan da Cunha, in order to give readers brief accounts of the damage caused by the Hurricane.
Medical Department
The east gable end of the Hospital fell in, and a quarter of the roofing torn off. The x-ray room and theatre room was totally destroyed and waterlogged. A list of the machines that were damaged and urgently needs replacing will be faxed to you, as they need to catch the vessel departing 7th June from Cape Town otherwise we will only get them in September!!! A patient (boy aged 8) was in hospital at the time.
Large holes were ripped in the roof on the Medical Officer's House, and all the carpets; furniture and clothing were wet.
Administration Department
Ridging on the east and west Gable ends of the Residency were torn off and, dining room etc got wet. A falling tree crushed the Greenhouse. Three longboats that were secured outside of the garden to the east were blown into the Residency garden.
A quarter of the roof on the Governor's house (Bungalow) was torn off, and the house waterlogged.
Administration building one window blown in and floors waterlogged, two computers and one printer down due to water.
Island Store Department
Holes in the asbestos roof of the Island Store (supermarket) caused by flying asbestos sheeting, and the floors flooded, clothing and foodstuff damage. The roof of the Gas Store torn off.
Mechanical Department
Asbestos roof completely ripped off Mechanical Department Workshop.
The Sawmill, in the distance, suffered the loss of roof and equipment.
PWD C & M Department
A few sheets of asbestos roofing came off the PWD General Store, and the building was flooded
Agriculture Department
East Gable end of Agriculture Wood Store fell in and asbestos roofing torn off. The Sawmill was badly damaged. Top of Agriculture Greenhouse and tunnel roof destroyed. 30 cattle dead and the count of sheep are unknown at this time. Roof torn off one of the two slaughterhouses. This is only in the settlement area, the weather has not allowed us to visit the back of the island, or the islands of Nightingale and Inaccessible.
Telecommunications Department
Asbestos ridging and roofing blown off the Radio Station, causing all the radio equipment to get waterlogged. The window was blown in and the satellite phone/equipment sucked out of window. Urgently need a HF radio of approximately 500w, for communications to Cape Town and elsewhere. The 100ft Jaguar mast (of ten iron sections) is leaning to the west, and will have to be cut down.
The radio equipment given to the Island by DFID during the Fisheries Project of 1996, was able to run communications between Cape Town and Tristan, for the 6 days whilst the power was cut of to the village and will continue until we can have another transmitter brought in.
Electrical Department
Electrical wires blown down all through the Village, like tangled fishing lines. No power since Monday 21 May, until today. A temporary power line was run to the Administration Building and the Island Store freezer after three days. A few sheets of asbestos were blown of their main building and floor waterlogged.
Police Department
Roof torn off the shed, which covers the rescue boat.
Natural Resources Department.
One computer waterlogged.
The Community Centre and Pub still are not repaired.
Community Centre and the only Pub destroyed
Asbestos roofing and overhead verandas torn off back and front of the Prince Philip Hall, with other large holes in the roof, the loft in the main hall fell in and the building is waterlogged. I am having a meeting with the council to see what can be done, but I presume that the only option would be to take the roof off completely, because if we have another gale, it may cause damage to the surrounding houses.
Two sheets of asbestos roofing off the back of the Café, and the inside waterlogged.
I am holding a meeting with the Government Heads of the various Departments, and will only know the full extent of the damage to their department then. At this time it is not possible for me to put a figure to the damage but I expect it to exceed at least two years of our revenue.
This is just Government buildings, a number of Islander houses were also damage, asbestos roofing blown off, windows broken, guttering blown off etc, and every house had water in either through their windows or roof. The roofing was torn of the Anglican Church Vestry and the Tower Bell blown down.
The biggest problem on Tristan at the moment is that 90% of the roofing is made of asbestos from South Africa, which gets brittle after time. When a sheet breaks or cracks its has to be replaced, often having to be cut by saw. Bits and pieces of asbestos litter the village and are busy being cleared at the moment. Although this is all the islanders can afford with their average monthly income of £152.43 per month. Not only are it an environmental disaster, but a health hazard as well, but what can we do?
Is there anyway in which the British Government could help the people of Tristan da Cunha to get rid of asbestos, granting a bulk of dipped Aluminium sheeting at a cost the islanders can afford.
There are only just over a hundred houses, each house taking approximately 40 sheets. This I believe could be the first affect of global warming seen at Tristan, with more weather
effects to come in the future.
I am setting up a disaster Fund, to help cover the expenses of roofing, the houses of the less fortunate. If you know any charities that would like to donate any amount, please ask them to contact me. It may also help to advertise for the rebuilding of the Community Centre.
I will come back to you with the total cost of damage, but it could take quite a while.
Kind regards
James Glass
Acting Administrator
Powered by NIC.AC Copyright © 2003-2004 Tristan Times Design by CrownNet
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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i'm interested.. will have to go look for this stuff. surprised that the page with the oddball tropical cyclones doesn't have any reference to it.
the link that steve posted is most interesting, in that the drought conditions developing in the southeast fit the bill of anoncoming la nina year. the cool tongue off peru is more pronounced, though the equatorial pacific is still mostly slightly warm in most places. i don't think a large scale la nina like the 1998-2001 events is in the making (therefore don't think a season tightly focused between august and october is on the way). looks like weak-moderate la nina, highly active and respondent to waves. cooler pocket of surface waters in the eastern atlantic may persist.. later development/intensification (closer to the caribbean) may result. however, everything always recurves or weakens before landfall, so have no fear. isabel was just a hiccup.
HF 0411z25april
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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i looked at the surface charts and thought "doesn't look like a hurricane". then i looked at the satelite shots and said "that's not a hurricane." they may have called it that, but it surely wasn't a tropical cyclone. clearly a middle-latitude cyclone by the satelite pics. but hey, still neat to look at.
HF 0427z25april
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Puerto Rico
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Time has gone by so fast that hurricane season is around the corner.What it will bring for all who live in the tropical areas of the atlantic basin? Time will tell but it seems to be another active season as the parameters are joining together to provoke an active atlantic basin.I say to all here have a safe season and happy tracking and see you down the road.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
Edited by Cycloneye (Mon Apr 26 2004 10:24 PM)
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HanKFranK
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for anybody interested in out-of-season research... found some TC summaries by a guy named gary padgett, and he makes mention of lots of systems that didn't quite receive an official record or get advisories... some of these systems in question you may remember. cross checked them with sat shots at the ncdc archives, even found a few that didn't pique my memory.
if you want to see some stuff the didnt track but may have been worth record, take a look at
www.typhoon2000.ph/archives.htm#gp
and
http://cdo.ncdc.noaa.gov/GOESBrowser/goesbrowser
notable systems include:
3/31-4/3/1998, central atlantic hybrid
10/21-24/1998, bay of campeche gale center (similar to larry)
9/13-17/1999, central atlantic, tropical low/unnamed storm
11/29-12/2/1999, convective gale center near azores
8/4-11/2000, midget subtrop cyclone that became TD 4
8/11-14/2000, tropical low/unnamed storm off mid atlantic
8/28-31/2000, unnamed subtropical storm (HPC classified) that moved into NC
9/30-10/4/2000, hybrid low off east coast
4/25-28/2001, central atlantic hybrid
9/4-10/2001, central/NW atlantic hybrid
9/4-5/2002, powerful hybrid in canadian maritimes
10/9-12/2003, hybrid/possible subtrop off mid atlantic
10/14-19/2003, hybrid/possible subtrop in central atl
10/30-11/5/2003, post-nicholas to gulf coast poss. subtrop
12/26-27/2003, eastern atlantic gale ctr
there is another system from further back, at the beginning of october 1994 in the gulf that merits a look.
nhc is reluctant to name questionable systems quite often, as named systems tend to cause immediate economic impacts, whether they come to fruition or not. in none of these cases did a significant rogue storm arise, supporting the policy of not classifying questionable systems. several of these systems occured while a major event was ongoing elsewhere in the tropics and may have received less attention as a result. however, a number of these systems may well have appeared on the official record in post-analysis without creating much of a stir. as the NOAA has an ongoing revision and reanalysis project with its hurdat record, i can only wonder if that may still happen.
HF 0458z27april
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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The Monthly Worldwide Tropical Cyclone Summaries prepared by Gary Padgett are just one of many items that are available from the Tropical List Server maintained by Chris Novy at the University of Illinois. The List Server also provides up-to-date distribution of Storm Bulletins, Advisories, Marine Forecasts, Discussions, RECON Reports, etc., and you can subscribe to this free service:
To subscribe to WX-ATLAN send e-mail to LISTSERV@UIUC.EDU and include
the following message:
sub wx-atlan YourFirstName YourLastName
The List Server will respond with additional information on how you can tailor your message traffic to receive only the information that you are interested in, however, the List Server cannot tailor information just to a specific storm, so your email traffic could increase significantly if three or four storms are active at the same time.
ED
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