LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> But if this were to develop...I know it'd make LI Phil happy
Rob, ROFLMAO (If you don't know what that acronym is, PM me and I'll tell you.  )
Hey, if it doesn't develop, I won't be crushed. But it sure has kept the boards lively this early in the season, huh?
Cheers & Peace,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Rob_M
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Cary, NC
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Sure has...and regardless if it develops or not...somebody along the northern Gulf coast is in for nasty weather in the coming days.
Btw yes I am aware of that acronym. But come on, I know you're just DYING for this to develop. hehehe...J/K.
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Rob Mann
IndependentWx.Com
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Rob,
Yes, and I expect to have "front line" reports from Steve (and Cat V Rick from his boat) on the weather.
Seriously, though. What's up with the models? Seems to me that only the AVN has a handle on this. Haven't checked your site yet, but here's what WREL is showing:
wrel
Is the "storm" really that far west? On Satellite, looks to be just due south of New Orleans, not Houston. Perhaps you can shed some light on the matter.
Thanks,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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Looks like we're in for a lot of rain up here on the North Gulf Coast. Look at this sattelite loop! Looks like organization is taking place. Seems like the LLC is taking shape and pulling the convection around it. We may have a Tropical Storm before landfall. See if you see what I'm seeing!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-vis-loop.html
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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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When is the plane scheduled to arrive?
I do agree with the LLC beginning to pull some storms into it. I have no idea what this "system" is going to do but I do know that it is providing a bunch of excitement for all of us.
SoonerShawn ( a.k.a. ShawnS)
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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I see what you mean. This is very interesting! Maybe the system is finally pulling itself together. I wouldn't be at all surprised if a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement was issued sometime today.
Phil - You should watch this closely! You've got around 33 hours left for your prediction to become a reality.
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Sooner,
DE PLANE is already in there. We're just waiting for the recon reports. Should have that info in less than an hour. It probably won't tell us what we don't already know, but more info is always welcome.
alex...alex...alex...c'mon, everybody now...alex...alex...alex
Sorry. Couldn't resist 
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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Any reports from recon? I see it organizing this afternoon but recon will have the ultimate word on what is going on.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Rob_M
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 60
Loc: Cary, NC
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Phil, the dominant LLC is still further west...exposed of any convection and basically has no chance of developing. What the recon is doing though is seeing if there's a new LLC where most of the convection is. Even if they don't find one, we probably will see a new LLC further east over the next day or 2 given how the global models pick up on intense low level vorticity as the convection moves northward.
It's so disorganized. If the recon doesn't find an LLC strong enough to be called a TD later today, I doubt it ever will. Strong shear ahead of the shortwave already moving into the Gulf...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html
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Rob Mann
IndependentWx.Com
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Is it just me or does our LLC seem to be trying to really ball up into a tiny system of its own and leaving all the other moisture behind? I was looking at a vis. close up and it sure looks like there is banding coming from the center going SW in direction. Has anyone else noticed this?
ShawnS
SoonerShawn
and whatever else I've been called!
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Not sure if anyone else has had trouble accessing , but there is another link that seems to be working
Alternate Link
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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this thing is starting to take off. vis shows it starting to rap up .
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Didn't get too much out of the latest update, but I made a slight misstatement a few posts ago. Recon left from Keesler AFB at 1:00 (I think that's CDT), so they're not in there yet. It's an eight hour flight, but we should have some info in a couple of hours or so. They're flying into the westernmost blob (27N 94W) first, and the next flight will be to the north and east of that at 28/90.
On all the visables, this thing is really starting to fire up. Getting the classic "comma" shape of a deep low pressure system.
JK, saw you were online, what's your take on this? Will we have Alex tomorrow?
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Check out this visible loop - there definately seems to be a circulation apparent in the convection.
Gulf Disturbance
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Storm Cooper
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Loc: Panama City , FL
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It is looking better...T1.0/1.0 now 
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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If it is an eight hour flight and they didn't leave until 1:00 central, that won't put them there until 9:00 this evening. I'm pretty good at math,huh!!! How would we have info in a couple of hours?
ShawnS
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Tony
Unregistered
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"A weak Tropical Cyclone ay be developing about 400 miles south of Louisiana" from TLH AFD.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Can't see it being an 8 hour flight, it takes 8 to fly to orlando from london and thats coming down the east coast of US. Must be less than 8hrs.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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YAY! /specialed
The 2004 season has officially started for me. I get excited when the countdown to June 1st is on. But the season never really starts for me until I see that first tropical raindrop. It happened about a half hour ago. I just finished cutting the grass and that first, sweet drop of 2004 tropical goodness landed on my head. It wasn't anything much. A NWward moving line had aligned a little to my north and west, but small, warm raindrops fell from dark grey clouds for about 10 minutes. It's thundering a bit now with tstorms to my north, west and south. So it's on. (Oh yeah, I drank some of it falling out the sky /ritual).
I like the look of the system this afternoon. It's been pesky all week. I gave it 50/50 and I'm still sticking with that. I've got the apparently-forming new center at about 24.12N, 93.06W and heading generally northwest still. There is another swirl around 25/85 that seems to be moving North at about the same pace.
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Anyway, this frosty delicious Abita Amber was cracked open in honor of the real [tm] kickoff to the 2004 season. Whether anything develops or not, the tropical rains are here. Cheers
As for recon, they've been reporting back their positions. Chad over at s2k is posting as the raw data becomes available.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Actually the recon has been there for quite awhile. At 1835Z the aircraft reported a wind of 27010 at 23.1N 93.0W. At 18Z I had the developing circulation at 23.8N 92.9W, so the recon report was from a location about 40+ miles south of the center of activity. Here is the report:
URNT11 KNHC 131835
97779 18354 11231 93000 03800 27010 24//8 /0011 49905
RMK AF963 01AAA INVEST OB 08
Cheers,
ED
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