SirCane
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
|
|
Seems like Bonnie is wobbling a lot. ENE then NNE then back to NE. Strange. 
--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
|
andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
|
|
don't they wobble when they intensify?? got all my stuff done.. i am ready for both.
|
Miami Chris
Unregistered
|
|
wxman007 or anyone else who might know. With Bonnie moving northeast across the NE gulf, any chance the subsidence (sinking air) around the periphery of the storm will serve to enhance the ridge located over the SE gulf. And if that is possible, could this not steer a little farther west than the models indicate before recurving it off to the northeast?
|
met
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 8
|
|
check the advisories on . it will be influenced by trof, will start going nw then north over west cuba. then ne over fla, it wont go thru trof, to go to the west.
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
Actually looks like an afternoon is getting stronger on the visible (haven't looked at or colorized yet). It might be the shadows from the afternoon sun, but it doesn't look better than it has. Again, I've got to wonder if my ideas were way too far west if it keeps heading between 1:30 and 3 o'clock (for those of you who don't like degree headings).
As far as me, I'll survive. I got my one little taste of rain and now it's clouding up again as the storm pulls off to the SE of me. If any of the big analogs are in play, they're will be plenty more for everyone.
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
|
|
Guys, I am doing VERY frequent updates now on the air, so I am time limited...and I am not doing very much analysis..you guys know a lot more about it than I do.
Sorry, but I just am not focused enough on to comment intelligently.
--------------------
Jason Kelley
|
jth
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 275
|
|
Makes sense. Stay safe over there.
|
Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
|
|
Seems to me that both are losing a bit of symetry. seems to be having a little interaction with Jamaica. Maybe elongating a bit on the northwest side as a precursor to a turn.
Bonnie looks to be getting a little disrupted on the edges by the trough. Center still look about the same though. I really don't see Bonnie getting much past 75mph, if she even gets there.
|
Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
|
|
Good luck, JK. Know you have a pretty tiring and busy day and night ahead of you.
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
Anyone know when she's scheduled to make landfall? I got approx. 7:00 am from accuwx, but I'm not sure how old that estimate was.
BTW, Bonnie still a TS at 5:00pm
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Wed Aug 11 2004 08:45 PM)
|
James88
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
|
|
Charley remains a 65kt hurricane, but is now forecast to reach 90kts before going ashore in Florida. The discussion says that the crossing of Cuba is not likely to disrupt strengthening much. Good luck to anyone in the path of , and of course Bonnie.
Edited by James88 (Wed Aug 11 2004 08:45 PM)
|
jth
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 275
|
|
Still wishing someone would post his thoughts. The forecast was not shifted west as I anticipated. I guess I should bow to the experts. Good luck to those of you in Florida the next few days.
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
Been checking on and off all day, and he finally updated his posts:
Bonnie pressures have not fallen but the storm is tight and I think this system is going to have hurricane intensity upon landfall. Its east northeast to northeast acceleration is right in tandem with the so called "shear" and its yet another case where what we have to worry about is the idea that it is moving in a way that it is in the upward motion side of the strong jet to the north, and this leads to intensification.
I am already reading the poo-pooing of things by residents in the way of in Florida. My advice, if you are told to, get out with all haste. There is a chance that is simply taking the path that will mean the least fight with land possible before hitting the states. The slowing started yesterday as it didnt just suddenly go from 26 mph to 16 mph, and that being said the slowing and turning northwest could mean an explosive period of deepening is getting ready to start.
He didn't mention CAT strength for , but earlier opined it could reach a CAT III.
Not really too much of an update, but he did mention the summer patters are like those of 1960, 1969 and 1985. Let's hope not...
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
jth
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 275
|
|
So he is now buying the FL landfall of ??? Yesterday he was saying west gulf. That solves it. Florida it is.
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Should I cancel my reservations for Islamorada this Saturday?
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
jth
If you go back to the previous thread, I posted JBs morning thoughts, somewhere between 10 & 11 am, if you're interested.
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Wed Aug 11 2004 09:06 PM)
|
jth
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 275
|
|
Went back and looked, there were no Joe B posts during the last thread. Maybe I missed it, but I don't think so. What was the jist of it?
|
bobbi
Unregistered
|
|
ill say bonnie makes cat 1 before landfall.. think she really wants to. Then again I said that she was going to make it right before she died the last time... but i do think she's trying to make hurricane status
i think all of joe bastardi's family is here trying to get his gulf storm going to texas
|
Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
|
|
Joe's new post was within the last twenty or so minutes.
Islamorada on Saturday? If you can get there, it should be fine as of now. Might want to see how things look tomorrow. I really think it will not be heavily affected and will be well out of the area on Saturday. More a question of evacuation states at that point.
Charley seems very well behaved and very close to forecast track. Models really are not moving around a whole lot. No reall immediate need to nudge left yet. Too many people down in SW Florida would ignore it if they moved the track tonight. Best to at least wait a bit. Easier to react when moving the track to the left then trying to move it to the right with less time.
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
jth,
That is bizarre, but the post is gone! Maybe Mike nuked it, but I only grabbed two-three sentences from his entire post. Here's what I put up:
>>>I hold with the idea of a sub 990 mb hurricane making landfall tomorrow on the coast and now I can make it in between Apalachicola and Pensacola (Bonnie)
>>>For now, it looks to me that we have a strong category 2 and perhaps a 3 making landfall Friday, but the exact spot is tough to call. The area between Cedar Key and Apalachicola is the Gulf equal to the no mans land around Jacksonville for the Atlantic. (Charley)
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
