Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Yeah GG, "TD5" is also showing up in the Houston and New Orleans morning discussions as well... it is already getting some attention.... looks like it could be another GOM event....
i sure hope it stays away from SW Florida!!!
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Yeah GG, "TD5" is also showing up in the Houston and New Orleans morning discussions as well... it is already getting some attention.... looks like it could be another GOM event....
i sure hope it stays away from SW Florida!!!
sorry for the double post... operator error
Edited by Frank P (Sat Aug 14 2004 01:42 PM)
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52255225
Weather Guru
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Loc: Parrish Fl
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So if #4 gets in the gulf again depending on its location and another cold front comes south are we looking at another west coast scenario? are there any cold fronts coming down?
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LI Phil
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FP & GG and all...
Watching (local news isn't concerned with FL, which sucks) right now.
Good lord, there's some serious damage going on. Entire communities are devastated. Punta Gorda is basically no more. Just to show you the magnitude of this bad boy, there are TS warnings up to Sandy Hook and TS watches up through Maine. Sorry that "Orlando Waiting" had to put us into reg. only mode. If anyone wants to scroll back and think I overreacted, send me a PM. But I think the seriousness of this storm and the damage that ensued justified Mike's action.
Have not heard (yet) from Mike, John, Ed or HF, but I am assuming they are OK.
Keep up the faith, folks. This may have only been round one.
I guess nobody (myself included) will complain about the "late start" to the season any more. 4 storms in 14 days. That's a season right there. God help us if September churns up another Isabel.
Peace y'all,
LI Phil
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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T numbers for TD 5 are 2.5.... we very well could have Earl today...
I have not looked at any long term forecasts, however, this last cold front was unheard of.. we usually don't get such strong fronts until October... I would be very surprised if we get another one, but that being said, we've had two fronts in July, albeit weak ones, and this last one which was not weak at all.... right not anything and everything is possible..
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Terri
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Richmond Hill, GA
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I just wanted to say hello and thank you for an excellent forum. You folks are truly amazing and certainly out of my league when it comes to the weather. As far as any contribution on my part, I can tell you what is happening in the GA coast when a hurricane is upon us. Thank you once again for your excellent hurricane coverage. You are certainly the BEST.
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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We are going to see pics like this all day. It's pretty bad to be nice about it. The eye just cut a path across the state, with by far the worse damage on the SW side, but it's in the 15 to 20 billion dollar range. We got rain with some wind in N FL, with going over Daytona last night after pasing Orlando. The speed of the storm seemed to get people in and out of it quickly, as far as the intence part was concerned. I talked to some friends further south, and it was like they had this feeling of relief that it was over at last. A really bad hour or two for them, just scared the wits out of them. They don't want to do this again anytime soon. I didn't have the nerve to mention TD 5 to them. They need some time to regroup.
Here in Jacksonville, a few tornado's from Bonnie, and rain for the most part. Have not talked to anybody in Daytona this morning, I think they are OK. Last night as pulled away, we were in the north-western, then western part of him, TS conditions from I95 east, some good rainbands, but no problem at all.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Hey guys,
have not posted through much of as site was slow, and figured those of you nearer would benifit more 
Hope you all got through it ok, and any of you that may still be in s path i hope you are all prepared.
Well, how busy is it now? With heading for his 3rd landfall this afternoon, it looks like the Carolinas could take a bit of a lashing. TD Five also bears watching, as the discussion above hints at! Danielle looks set to be a fish spinner, so thats one less to worry about.
All the best to you all. Keep safe.
Kind Regards
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Have it basically a strong Cat 1 just southwest of Cuba's Isle of Youth in 5 days... track is eerily similar to s up to that point... However, I don't think we'll see that sharp turn to the north that took after that... we'll see...
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PFSThunder
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 38
Loc: Charleston, SC
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I just heard a story that someone with a south facing apartment had to drill their wood headboard to the door to keep it from flying open. I was 8 miles from the center of circulation and I feel we got 100 mph winds. Missing some singles and flashing. A metal fence in laying on the ground because some vegetation grew in and the wind knocked it down.
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Go Boilermakers
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/05LMDL01.html
Does this look familar?
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52255225
Weather Guru
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Loc: Parrish Fl
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very familiar! scary stuff. 
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Unfortunately,
All TOO familiar. Hope you don't get this weather, but unfortunately, someone will.
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Roberta
Registered User
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Posts: 8
Loc: Sebastian, FL
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My son lives in Port Charlotte - watching all the damage reports this morning and the entire area around Punta Gorda & Port Charlotte just looks horrific, and the loss of many lives is heartbreaking, especially the reports from the trailer parks.
What I want to know is: WHERE is Jim Cantori of the Weather Channel this morning?? He said last night he would show us damage this morning when the sun comes back up. There is NO SIGN of Jim, and the Weather Channel is pretty conspicuous about leaping from Key West then up to the Carolinas, leaving out a great deal of reporting about the devastated areas between those two points. We watched the progress of very closely on the WC up to the point and after landfall - prior to landfall, all the WC was yacking about and showing pretty graphics on was the Tampa/St. Pete area - like it was a CERTAINTY that this was where the storm was going. This is upsetting because many people took this as "gospel" and, consequently, got caught with little or no time to evacuate when it became apparent a few hours before landfall that the Ft. Myers area was going to be ground zero. Those elderly folks that were killed in those mobile home parks had little chance to get out...many of them have physical problems and needed assistance to evacuate...not just a knock on their door. They needed some time, and I think would have HAD the time if the storm track hadn't been reported with so much absolute assurance from the WC that Tampa/St. Pete was the target of this storm. Prior to making the N/NE turn, Dr. Lyons on WC used very FEW "qualifying" words when indicating the storm track, so sure he was that Tampa/St. Pete was THE spot.
I think the WC knows today how they messed up, and have stopped Jim Cantori from reporting this morning, in an effort to "change the subject" to the Carolinas and Dr. Lyons is choosing his words much more carefully this morning.
Sorry to vent, but am upset about all these elderly folks losing their lives due to preconceived and self-assured forecasting on the part of the WC. Sure do miss Dr. John Hope, bless his soul...he really knew hurricanes and how to prepare people for ANY eventuality and never "carved in stone" his forecasts. 
So very thankful to hear that most everyone else in the storm's later path was informed and able to weather the storm and are alive this morning.
Hope that we are spared these next storms on their way...and that some lessons have been learned. 
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Kimster
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Dunedin, FL
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Has anyone heard from Colleen?
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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The overall weather pattern looks to be different by quite a lot for TD 5. This time the ridge to his north may not be as strong ( to keep him going west), and there may not be much to pull him north. I don't see this as a repeat of , Earl, in my early take, will catch far more of an island, which is a card didn't get.
I said in May that Florida would get hit by two named storms. We got them in one week. Could somebody please take the next one?
Please?
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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those four counties i'm betting are where the real story is. there is a large hispanic migrant worker community down there.. lots of low-income manufactured housing. towns like wauchula, zolfo springs, arcadia, up near bowling green and fort meade in polk.. just inland still received a hell of a lick. i don't know how well EMS disseminated information to the large hispanic community in the area as the storm shifted track and rapidly intensified during the day friday. also lots of snowbirds down there who probably took a look at the tampa forecast friday morning, the cat2 status, and didn't take it seriously. there are talks of refrigerator mortuary trucks heading into the area today, and numbers of unaccounted-for persons. the degree of the situation is still unknown, but these are not comforting signs.
charley is near myrtle beach now, moving northeast along the convex coastline of long bay. center should be fully ashore around north myrtle beach within the hour. pressure dropped to 988 at last recon fix, at the system's tightness still probably a high 85-90mph sustained. may keep a good bit of punch up the coast as it appears to be undergoing transition.
danielle far out to sea, forecast to track into the big empty of the eastern atlantic. t.d. 5 not gaining a great deal of latitude but looking better.. may be t.s. earl at 11am. if it can intensify, should gain enough latitude to clear south america. of course it is racing and the usual problems of racing systems may dog it.. but we just a had a substantial system that dealt with fast westward movement quite well. earl should be the story of the coming week.
as clark alluded to last night, over the small eyewall region had, there is Andrew-like damage. for the first time in a while heavy wind damage extends well inland along a narrow swath up US 17.
HF 1434z14august
Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Aug 14 2004 03:27 PM)
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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There are currently no other moderators on line...so I will attempt to answer...
If you were watching for updates, as good as they are, they are NOT the official voice for storms...Neither is . The National Weather Service (NWS) did a pretty damn good job of forecasting this monster.
I pray for you and your loved ones. But don't blame /Cantore for any casualties.
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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Here in Atlanta, watching the coverage between , CNN, FNC, MSNBC and the local affiliates and I am just heartbroken by viewing all the damage . What sent a cold chill up my spine was when I first started watching was a crawl saying they were ordering 60 body bags in Punta Gorda. Let's hope and pray they don't need to use one.
Other thoughts, CNN has John Zerella and ANderson Cooper in Punta Gorda.....CNN has also been featuring video from their affiliates in CHarleston and in Raleigh, NC...looks like major flooding in Raleigh as they just reported that Crabtree Creek is at 11' right now and rising. Also saw some pictures from OIA, haven't heard of any damage reports from the resort area in Orlando...
To all of those recovering in Florida right now, our thoughts and prayers are with you, and from another post, Earl does look eeirly familiar too.....
Finally, the ONLY good thing this hurricane has brought is at least there's no political coverage this morning.....
Amen, Brother.--HF
Good Luck and God Bless
Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Aug 14 2004 03:30 PM)
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Roberta
Registered User
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Posts: 8
Loc: Sebastian, FL
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Thanks, Phil, for your response. Please understand I am NOT blaming Cantore, not one iota. He was doing an excellent job.
And I know that the WC and are not official forecasters, but many who do not know better THINK that the WC has some "officiality" about it.
And, while the DID do an excellent job, I wish that something could be done to give them greater visibility, especially in the case of major storms, like back in the days when Dr. Bob Sheets was there...I think that someone of authority from the should broadcast thru feed to local news channels as Dr. Sheets did many times. That way, there would be NO doubt as to who "the experts" are and what the official forecast and warnings are, especially in the case where they change suddenly.
Not trying to annoy here...just thinking of ways that things can be improved to save lives. 
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