Keith234
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Today seems that the wave will become somewhat stronger from looking at the overall pattern it's seems to have in the loops, I think because of day-time heating. Though it will have to overcome some dust in it's path, such as some SAL that's seems to be stuck in its circulation. But we still can't rule out the possiblity of Tropical Cyclone devlopment, it still has a chance and it's not over until the cow jumps over the moon as I say.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by Jason234 (Mon Aug 23 2004 12:57 PM)
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Puerto Rico
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ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL962004) ON 20040823 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040823 1200 040824 0000 040824 1200 040825 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.0N 26.8W 8.3N 28.5W 8.7N 30.3W 9.3N 32.2W
BAMM 8.0N 26.8W 8.5N 28.2W 9.2N 29.9W 10.1N 32.1W
A98E 8.0N 26.8W 8.1N 29.0W 8.3N 31.4W 8.7N 34.0W
LBAR 8.0N 26.8W 8.2N 29.1W 8.7N 31.6W 9.2N 34.5W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 45KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040825 1200 040826 1200 040827 1200 040828 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.3N 34.2W 13.2N 37.8W 16.2N 39.2W 18.8N 39.6W
BAMM 11.1N 34.5W 14.0N 38.7W 17.0N 40.6W 19.7N 41.6W
A98E 9.3N 36.5W 10.9N 41.4W 12.6N 45.9W 14.3N 49.3W
LBAR 10.0N 37.7W 12.4N 43.9W 14.4N 47.4W 17.1N 46.9W
SHIP 53KTS 67KTS 71KTS 73KTS
DSHP 53KTS 67KTS 71KTS 73KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.0N LONCUR = 26.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 8.0N LONM12 = 24.8W DIRM12 = 267DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 8.3N LONM24 = 22.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 70NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Here are the first model plots for 96L.It looks not too organized right now as east shear is affecting it.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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It looks like the quietness has subsided and will now be a memory, it seems from here on in that there will be a lot more tropical systems forming, especially from looking at Africa's Tropical Waves the next two look pretty good.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I forgot to login before writing that above.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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NRL seems to be showing this Invest as 96L and 90L, at the same time. Is it an error?
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Puerto Rico
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Surely that is an error because both show the same system in the pics but the order of the numbers is 96L for it as before Earl was a storm it was 95L.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Latest from Morehead City NWS. Interesting to note that the 25/55 coordinates are not much different than Isabel, which was 22/55 at one point:
ENDING UP ON A TROPICAL NOTE...REMNANTS
OF "DANIELLE" BUT A MEMORY SOME 775 MILES SW OF THE AZORES...WHILE
THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXITED THE COAST OF AFRICA SEVERAL
DAYS AGO HAS POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IN THE LONG JOURNEY
ACROSS ATLANTIC. INTERESTING TO NOTE...AND IF IT WHAT SAYS COMES
TO PASS (I.E.,FURTHER DEVELOPMENT)...GFSLR BRINGS FEATURE ON A SLOW
WNW JOURNEY TO A POSITION WELL N OF THE WINDWARDS (25N LAT/55W LON)
BY THE START OF THE NEW MONTH.
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Sounds like Danielle may make her comeback pretty soon:-
THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF DANIELLE...CENTERED ABOUT 875 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS...HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER
AND...IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD POSSIBLY OCCUR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD AT 10 MPH.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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Danielle could be upgraded later to day to subtropical (if they even do that once something is classified as tropical) or tropical depression--not much convection around the center, but very well-defined LLC. interesting question here--what is that to the north of it?
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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The 2:05 says that a low is starting to develop on the CV wave. There is also a small flare-up of deep convection occuring.
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bobbi
Unregistered
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Seems like its hardly moving compared to some of the early waves. As for Danielle.. guess she likes to dawdle about and ramble around in circles. She's looking pretty good on the Invest. I noticed the took a long time in dropping her.
Like the wave still over Africa.. beautiful wave. Nice tight circulation.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Since Danielle isn't moving fast it has a better chance of devloping . It might even become a sub-tropical depression by tom. The next two waves look really good and could become the next two named systems and the invest that we already have is coming along quite well. Seems very active in terms of able-to-devlop tropical waves.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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The CV wave is being recurved by the which maintains its natural tendency to recurve systems forming in the far eastern Atlantic. With the redevelopment of a in the central Atlantic, that goes without saying. Storms that form early will find the weakness. But those who wait a while, will come underneath whatever weather patterns are in the western Atlantic. Btw, check out the global SSTA's today on the OTIS Model.
Bastardi was supposed to release his landfall intensity scale update text today with the video due out tomorrow or Wed. But instead, he only issued a 14 mintue tropical udpate. If what his "Remainder of the Season" update says comes true, then we are in line for a historical landfalling year as far as effects (remember, his landfall intensity scores are based 50% on pressure and 50% on classification modified by actual observations in a specific zone). Of note, Texas has been reduced (the idea that with each passing day toward the fall, chances of a Texas hit diminish). However, Texas is still within the TS-Cat 1 range.
The Louisiana zone is the biggest mover. It was originally slated for 3.7 but now is at 11. This corresponds with the eventual threat shifting eastward to the north central gulf (in line with 85, 95, 98, and especially 2002 where the Water Temperature Profiles are very close). The Mississippi-Panama City Beach zone is equal the LA zone (11 corresponds to between Cat 1 and Cat 2 conditions occurring. This doesn't mean that Cat 1or Cat 2 conditions will be felt with only one storm as it could be the cumulative effects of multiple storms - TD's, TS's, Cat 1's, etc.). The Carolinas are 3rd in remaining intensity with the SW coast of FL tied with Texas for 4th. Cumulative TS effects are still predicted for the Eastern Seaboard, New England and the Canadian Maritimes.
So as noted above, if the US and Canadian coastlines reach his "remaining landfall" totals, 2004 will go down as a record (historical) season for landfall effects. The average (and I think this is over 40 or 50 years) was 36.3 until last year nudged it up to 37.2. He's already scored over 60 points with around 66 points to go. If he's clued in properly, strap on dem dere seatbelts.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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that's a real interesting post Steve... that's one of the unique approaches that I like about Joe B, quintessential example of "thinking out of the box" ..... and if it comes to fruition things could get cranking hot and heavy in the GOM during the remainder of the season... I don't see anything happening any time soon but things can and do change often this time of the year.... the next 6-8 weeks could be quite a show.... hope its not too much a show though..
for today however, all we really have is the 96L invest, and chances are it will be a fish spinner more than likely... a weak wave in the western Caribbean not doing much, and finally a cluster of thunderstorms in the Bahamas.... which initially looked to be part of some type of ULL feature... regardless, neither of these two areas closest to the are going to develop, and if they did, it would be slow process... so I don't see any real threat to the US for at least another week or so....
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Got a summer cold. Wonderful, stayed home from work AND off the computer all day. I'm not so sure that the slow development with 96L is such a good thing. It probably deserved an Invest Saturday, but looked terrible yesterday. Finally got one today. Moving rather slowly considering its location...fairly far south. WPAC & EPAC really ramping up, so it's just a matter of time for the Atl. Frank already a hurricane in the EPAC and two strong typhoons in the WPAC. Should stay fairly quiet here for a few days, although JB still watching for a homegrown storm either in the GOM or off the FL coast late this week. Didn't watch JBs video forecast, but Steve brought forth some interesting snippets, I'll have to check it out.
Time for another shot of Vicks44...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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LONNY307
Unregistered
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Why are some calling 96L a fish spinner. It's just a wave and the models are useless till it's . When it's a storm and the trough sucks it up, then and only then it will not be a threat. :?:
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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some of the models are showing a weakess in the ridge down the road and accordingly want to pull this system north out to sea... climatologically, systems that do develop this far out are fish spinners as a rule, however, there are some exceptions to the rule... granted this system has not developed, and the longer it takes to develop, the more west its inclined to go... nothing is a SURE bet, so we just wait and watch...
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Lonny,
The US model suite (AVN/GFS) had been calling for development and recurvature. It remains to be seen if that's the case as the has been doing that with waves all year (too early on development = too early on recurvature). I think I screwed up in my other post about the intensity with the corresponding landfall effects. So just adjust that post with the following: TD = 1, TS = 2, Cat 1 = 4, Cat 2 = 8, Cat 3 = 16, Cat 4 = 32, Cat 5 = 64. A Cat 2 can be anywhere between an 8 and a 15.999999x depending on its pressure relating to the highs and lows of each category. So technically Texas would be between Cat 1 and Cat 2 still rather than TS and Cat 1. /my bad
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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we're past the dog days.. time for some longtracker action. invest 96L i'm slating to be the first longtracker of the 2004 season.. danielle didn't get far enough west to really qualify. seems to be slowly coming around to my way of thinking(mostly, anyhow).. no longer feeding the invest into the mid oceanic trough. figuring on a stair-stepping track with it.. probably will move mostly northwest once it develops, for the first few days.... then contend with the upper trough.. then come west under whatever ridge is in the western atlantic. this will take days to happen, and it's useless to say how much ridging will be near the east coast later in the forecast period as the model resolution is low and changes with every run. timetable hard to nail down because the system is hanging on the and broad.. expected a classified system by now.. but still should be by wednesday.
various globals indicating low pressure will develop east of ga/sc in the next couple days; energy left behind by the shortwave currently exiting the region. another case of hard-to-nail timetable.. but definite development potential with this feature by week's end. region from sc up to new england would potentially be affected by said system, variables of intensity and location of development to be worked out.
danielle still trying to redevelop.. still slim chances. it's under too much shear to hold down a .. as it accelerates it may begin to hold some banding convection for long enough to re-intensify some.. of the opinion it shouldn't have been operationally downgraded to begin with, but not losing any sleep over it either.
subsequent waves emerging off africa are being picked up on and developed by globals, but the specifics are unreliable for now. suffice to say we could easily have a from 96L and another development by labor day weekend.
frank rapidly developed today in the eastpac, and t.d. 9e is trying to perk up as well.. estelle's counter starts on the 24th and runs through the 29th.. the new systems in the eastpac may be telegraphing development from the 28th through september 2nd. also, going positive for the first time in a while. subsequently nao positive phase may linger for a while, give us some of those meandering longtrackers.. and keep the potential for subtropical development active.
HF 2314z23august
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Miami, Florida
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I agree with HF's take on 96L (future ), looking at the models, if you believe those models, takes the storm north of the islands, but then may get caught under some east coast ridging east of the Bahamas by day 11 (Sept 3rd), and probably continuing to move in the general direction of the east coast of the U.S. Think a 11 day forecast out is pretty unreliable, but lets see what happens, first of all it does have to develop, and then we'll see the model runs for it. Here's a link to the 11 day out "fantasyland" forecast of the :
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_85v_264m.gif
TG
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