Kal
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 50
Loc: Space Coast
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Actually, "I have a bad feeling about this" was exclaimed by...
Luke in Episode IV when he sees the Death Star for the first time,
Han in Episode IV inside the trash compactor...
Leia in Episode V inside the space-slug cave...
And Obi Wan in Episode I at some point I believe...
Onto the point at hand though. While it's far too soon to know exactly where in the we might see problems from these developing systems, it doesn't take a doctorate in meteorology to see that we have some potential scenarios that could spell Trouble with a captiol "T" for a lot of folks. I can see why some are getting bad vibes at the moment.
It's true that residents of the South Carolina "Low Country" and the "Coastal Empire" of Southeast Georgia have lived a charmed life for many years. They haven't had a direct hit since David in 1979, and that was only a Cat 1. I can tell you from personal experience as a former resident of that area that far too many people think they are somehow immune to major hits. The last minute turn of Hugo started this. The debacle that was the Floyd evacuation worsened the situation, prompting many to say they'll ignore advisories and avoid the "inconvenience" of the next evacuation, because the storms always turn north. If they'd take a look at local weather history for the past 200 years, and flood potential maps for the area, they'd be singing a different tune. Sorry to rant about one particular geographic area, but I'm convinced that a direct hit to that area will catch far too many off-guard.
Edited by Kal (Fri Aug 27 2004 06:33 PM)
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 489
Loc:
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The 2:00 on the 2 invests:
1015 MB LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST
APPROXIMATELY 125 NM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THIS
AREA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN
A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM ANYTIME WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WHILE THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIES JUST OFFSHORE THE SE UNITED
STATES COAST...THIS ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND GEORGIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
1016 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM S OF BERMUDA.
WHILE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SE OF THE LOW CENTER DURING THE
DAY...THERE IS LITTLE INDICATION OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME.
NONETHELESS...THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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Here's a bouy link:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41008
Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 350 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 11.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 13.6 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 2.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 4 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.08 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.02 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.9 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.8 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 72.9 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 83.8 °F
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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Here is another Bouy:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=TYBG1
Wind Direction (WDIR): NNW ( 330 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 18 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 19 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 3.0 ft
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.03 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 78.1 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 73.8 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 80.6 °F
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SC Bill
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 24
Loc: South Carolina
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Kal- We think very much alike (and enjoy the same movies).
I am often aggravated by the total lack of concern most people show around here. In preparation for a possible "back door" , I spent half a day preparing my boat for wind and possible surge. Not a SINGLE other boat owner in the marina made any preparations.
Anyway, it would be nice if these three (potentially) systems were complex puzzles to track and forecast, but ultimately went to sea. Ain't gonna happen this time. As soon as I see Jim Cantore on the beach here, I'm outa Dodge.
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TROY
Unregistered
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I think we have TD 7
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Yep has listed 07L Noname on its site, we will have TD 7 at 5.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Only a dew point difference of 3 degrees, and 15kts wind speed and the barometric pressure is dropping, somethings brewing out there and it doesn't smell good!
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA OFF SOUTH CAROLINA
FLIGHT ONE
A. 28/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 28/1600Z
D. 31.5N 80.0W
E. 28/1700Z TO 29/0030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6HRLY FIXES ON HURRICANE
NEAR 19.5N AND 56.0W AT 29/1800Z. A GIV MISSION FOR 30/0000Z
DEPARTING AT 29/1800Z AND WC130 SURVEILLANCE MISSION DEPARTING
AT 29/1800Z. PSBL INVEST SOUTH OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N AND 70W
FOR 29/2100Z.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Hurricane
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 5
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There is a Disturbance Statement existing:
000
WONT41 KNHC 271818
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2004
SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS...AND POSSIBLY FOR A SMALL PORTION OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD BY SATURDAY.
FORECASTER STEWART
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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The weather pattern for sure is looking a lot like it did for Andrew. Quite scary! Next week is going to be interesting.
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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As I had earlier suspected, 's are in:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
27/1745 UTC 31.7N 77.7W T1.5/1.5 97
27/1745 UTC 15.4N 49.2W T5.5/5.5
That makes 102kts (probably even higher), so it becomes our THIRD MAJOR CANE in AUGUST!
Weren't we all complaining about the slow start to the season less than one month ago? Well, we're about to get a whole season of weather in a month...and we're not even to peak season yet. 
2004 is definitely one for the record books.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Wow-that's all I can say about the tropics right now. is an amazing storm to watch on visible satellite loops. And I certainly didn't expect the little surprise that the SE system therw at us. It wasn't looking good yesterday, but it is now a TD. Should mostly be a rainmaker for the Carolinas through the weekend.
Frances is the big story. I really don't have much else to add to what everyone else as well as the forecasters have said. I really don't want to start hyping this storm too early..it's still a full week away from Florida. However...the upper level high that is forecast to build in could bode VERY well for intensification. The storm is already at 105 miles per hour and an upper level ridge will build in over the weekend...sending the storm more westward with favorable conditions. I can barely fathom how much potential this system has. Can't say much else at this time.
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> The storm is already at 105 miles per hour
Actually, that was at 11:00. It's more like 120 mph now. Yeesh.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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DMFischer
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 70
Loc: Palm Bay
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I was studying the water vapor loop for the basin and zoomed in on the area off the carolinas. My question is this. To me it looks like the formation behind the one closest to the coast is feeding off the one on the coast, yet could it be the opposite? I know I see one flowing into the other. I think. 
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Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08
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Maitland
Unregistered
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Well I hope we don't get hit here again by . already has weakened everything and all we need is a cane to come through and finish off the job. We'll just have to start all over if decides to hit us, the'll be hardly anything left. Just not time to panic, not yet at least. Just hope and pray it doesn't come to our doorstep. 
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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TD#7 formed on the remains of the frontal boundary, the remains of the frontal boundary are indicated by the high water vapor content. It's not techinally channeling air from system to system, the moist air just resides in the frontal boundary where the two systems formed. Good question.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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RevUp
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 181
Loc:
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TD 7 is a good reason why we need to have a hurricane center and weather watchers. In anticipation of coming days potential, when was the last time we had 3 active trop. cyclones all at the same time in the Atlantic?
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 1
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 27, 2004
...Tropical Depression Seven forms off the South Carolina coast...
...Tropical storm watch issued...
at 5 PM EDT...2100z...a tropical storm watch has been issued for
portions of the southeastern U.S. Coast from Surf City North
Carolina southward to Fernandina Beach Florida.
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Depression Seven was
located near latitude 31.6 north...longitude 78.1 west or about
140 miles... 225 km...southeast of Charleston South Carolina.
The depression is nearly stationary. A slow westward drift is
expected to begin later tonight. This motion could bring the center
closer to the southeastern U.S. Coast on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph... 45 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...
and the depression could become a tropical storm on Saturday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb...29.94 inches.
The primary threat with this system will be heavy rainfall. Locally
heavy rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible along the
track of the depression.
Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...31.6 N... 78.1 W. Movement...
nearly stationary. Maximum sustained
winds... 30 mph. Minimum central pressure...1014 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 PM EDT.
Forecaster Stewart
Looks like this one is primarily a BIG TIME rainmaker. Something that area probably does not need, particularly if comes knocking next week.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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James88
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Isn't that the kind of track that Alex was forecast to take earlier in the year?
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