danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The satellites are back up. eye is about half the size it was at 0345Z.
High cloud tops (Dvorak-white) from the 6 o'clock position to the 11 o'clock position. Eye appears elliptical and has rotated from a 9 o'clock position to a 6 o'clock position.
Outflow on the eastern side is marked by thin cirrus clouds.
The large cloud layer and western feeder band appear to have been intruded on by drier air, as they have broken down somewhat.
There may be an increase in westerly shear, but due to the satellites just coming back on line, 1 frame doesn't tell a lot.
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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I woke up today resolved to start planning for what is becoming clearer to me that MAY strike SE (WPB area) and head out to the GOM via Bradenton/Tampa. Of course, it all depends on the strength of the ridge and when it will curve westward. So far is on track with this respectable storm. But I do believe that all interests living on barrier islands from the Keys to the Outer banks need to start working on their Plan Bs and Cs  
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
Edited by rmbjoe1954 (Sat Aug 28 2004 10:11 AM)
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LadyStorm
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Loc: United States
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They say the same about the Daytona Beach area, because we are in a bend and have the effects of the Gulf Stream as well. I don't buy it. I think its complacency.
MaryAnn
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I live in Southern Brevard county (Palm Bay). For the last 2 weeks, all I have been hearing is how Southern Brevard doesn't get hit by hurricanes. And that how we were supposed to get Hurricane force winds here with , and didnt. I have prepared for the last 3 or so storms that threatened to make appearances ( Floyd, Irene and recently ). Although we haven't been hit directly by these storms, doesn't mean it won't ever happen. Just wanted to get that out there. Hopefully people will always prepare themselves. And if it doesn't hit you, thank God. Consider your preparations as practice.
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"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"
..........Albert Einstein
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LadyStorm
Weather Guru
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Loc: United States
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All of us on the SE US coast need to watch. Here is what the NWS of Melborne had to say in its 5 am weather discussion:
NOTE TO USERS...PERSONS IN EC FL SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
HURRICANE CLOSELY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST TRACK STRENGTHENS THIS ALREADY MAJOR (CATEGORY 3 ON SAFFIR
SIMPSON SCALE) HURRICANE EVEN FURTHER AS IT APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS
LATE WEDNESDAY.
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"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"
..........Albert Einstein
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jlauderdal
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Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
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Quote:
They say the same about the Daytona Beach area, because we are in a bend and have the effects of the Gulf Stream as well. I don't buy it. I think its complacency.
MaryAnn
exactly,
any system being steered by a strong blocking high doesnt care about bends or gulf stream..in fact it might like the gulf stream for a little energy boost after along tiring journey across the atlantic
Quote:
I live in Southern Brevard county (Palm Bay). For the last 2 weeks, all I have been hearing is how Southern Brevard doesn't get hit by hurricanes. And that how we were supposed to get Hurricane force winds here with , and didnt. I have prepared for the last 3 or so storms that threatened to make appearances ( Floyd, Irene and recently ). Although we haven't been hit directly by these storms, doesn't mean it won't ever happen. Just wanted to get that out there. Hopefully people will always prepare themselves. And if it doesn't hit you, thank God. Consider your preparations as practice.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Hate to change the subject here, but TD 7 is beginning to build some -like convection over the LLC. Eastern half of the storm is wrapped nicely, and has some outflow.
GA/SC/NC in for some rain-lots of it.
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LadyStorm
Weather Guru
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Loc: United States
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According to the 8 am advisory, you are right on target:
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS VERY NEAR
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION
Quote:
Hate to change the subject here, but TD 7 is beginning to build some -like convection over the LLC. Eastern half of the storm is wrapped nicely, and has some outflow.
GA/SC/NC in for some rain-lots of it.
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"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"
..........Albert Einstein
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Hurric
Weather Guru
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Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
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Recent IR pics and first visible show an improved appearance this morning. A ring of red around the eye this morning. It looks to have reorganized itself overnite.
A lot of areas along the coasts of US have that (NIMB) not in my backyard attitude about strong storms visiting them. I think many listen to neighbors who have lived an area for a 'longtime'. The 'longtime' might be 40 years which historically isn't such a along time.
Remember areas hit hardest by hadn't been hit hard since Donna in 1960. My local areas last big one was in 1949. Only a small percentage of people living here on the, Treasure Coast, of Florida have even heard of that storm. Please to all, listen to official and local advisories and act accordingly.
I didnt mean to get off topic for this page so move it if needed.
It looks like by Monday areas of Florida will be in the 5 day long range cone and this board will really get active.
Hurric
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
All of us on the SE US coast need to watch. Here is what the NWS of Melborne had to say in its 5 am weather discussion:
NOTE TO USERS...PERSONS IN EC FL SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
HURRICANE CLOSELY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST TRACK STRENGTHENS THIS ALREADY MAJOR (CATEGORY 3 ON SAFFIR
SIMPSON SCALE) HURRICANE EVEN FURTHER AS IT APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS
LATE WEDNESDAY.
I find this interesting also: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif
It appears the is betting on the southern models which take much closer to S. Florida rather than the models showing a turn to a more northerly track. Having just gone through the eye of here in E Orlando, several of my neighbors 'homes' (mobile home) are now in a dumpster...or the pieces are, and if does hit almost anywhere on the E Coast of Florida, then recurves as the 'northern models' suggest, just later, this one could also find a way to add to the debris of my neighborhood using my now dented mobile home as additional missiles. I hope the is wrong and it does recurve as some of these models suggest, but I fear they are right.
Does anyone have info about how well the UKMET model has done on this storm? It shows a bias toward Central East Coast of Florida. If the enclosed URL is any indication, the and the UKMET are in close agreement.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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frances chugging along unchanged from last night. guidance still taking the storm into/near the bahamas late in the forecast period.. insinuating that it will strike the east coast in a week. my take unchanged.. storm will go north of the caribbean islands, strike the east coast on or about saturday, september 4th.. quite possibly in the cat3-4 range.
going to fine tune what i said about TD7 and 98L last night... and add two other suspect areas for next week. idea about TD7/98L binary action may not be as pronounced as i was reckoning last night.. still calling for it, but the ridge should shift east before they get anything real interesting going. TD 7 is deepening and should begin to move west today. may intensify quite a bit before it reaches the coast, as per the level of organization it has attained. didn't move as much as i was reckoning last night, so it shouldn't quite get the landfall position i progged just eight hours ago.. somewhere on the sc coast though. should landfall at a high angle late sunday.. perhaps early am monday.. thinking around fripp/edisto at this point. may be a minimal hurricane, but probably a high end tropical storm. should be moving erratically at that point as it interacts with the tropical system passing by to the northeast. based on the forecast pattern it may get 'stuck' instead of carried out to sea.. though models trending less in that direction now.
98L i'm going with development.. later today. no #s yet.. should change soon. think tropical storm potential.. probably low to mid range... at least through monday. unless more of the ridge periphery sticks than forecast, it should break through and clear hatteras by a couple hundred miles. still going with this as the sacraficial recurvature lamb.
new area of interest appearing in some modeling in the northern gulf for mid week, upcoming. the shortwave energy currently over the southern plains should have a significant piece left behind (trough splitting is the name of the game in this pattern). in other words, there may be another spin-up system near the louisiana coast in early september.. models vary on how far south this feature will be released.. if it gets a decent distance offshore development chances will be present more than if it is hanging over the delta.
the surface flow that helped close off a few days ago continues in a weaker form.. wave energy is out of sync behind the system, but global models are consistently developing at least one new tropical cyclone out there during the upcoming week. hard to ID the perp.. as things are so out of whack.. both the spread system near 28w and the one emerging today are potential developers down the line. it's longtracker season, so we should get a few more out of there during the coming weeks.
put a forecast challenge up at oh-dark-thirty last night in the storm forum. big players out there right now, head on over and see if you can reason out their moves.
HF 1243z28august
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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Both storms improved between the 5am adivosry and the 8. has gone almost donut shaped on IR, and #7 is expanding with every new photo that comes in.
TPS
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Loc: EC Florida
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Although I can't tell you for sure how well the UKMET has done with , I think that the model has had a right bias with throughout the storm's entire life. Someone please correct me if I am wrong. So...the latest leftward shift is somewhat disturbing. This is the second or third run of the UKMET that has taken the storm more towards the left. Here's a good graphical representation of some of the models:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif
You can see the UKMET model track, a track that will either cause to make landfall in EC Florida or a very close brush. The tropical models, the two BAMM outputs, look alright track-wise but also seem to be a little slower. The BAMMs are better for storms in the deep tropics. The , well, is an outlier. Its track shows that the model may not have a very good handle on the high pressure system that will be anchored north of .
So, there's still plenty of time to watch, but this storm has some hints of Floyd to me. If you have 7-day longwave spacing, then we should have another trough approaching the eastern US in another 7 days...next Saturday. How close is along with her exact position will determine the effects on Florida, if any.
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
this storm has some hints of Floyd to me
We are apparantly thinking along the same lines. BTW, I evacuated for Floyd (trailers aren't good places to brave storms) and as I remember, it bent a number of road signs down around Ft Pierce/Stuart then eroded more of the Daytona area beaches, if I recall correctly. Let's hope that is all ends up doing at worst....anyone know who has any batteries in stock....I still can't find any stores that have more than a couple 
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Richard, most Lowes and Home Depot have restocked their batteries. They are relatively easy to find. Saw a mess of them last night in Lowes.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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Looks like will have a very similar track to Floyd-including the offshore turning to the north. The situation with all of the fronts off the coast seems to be continuing, if they are developing things into tropical storms and depressions. may become a 4 or 5, but will likely hit the Carolinas around Sep 4-5 with winds 115-125 (around the time Fran hit in 1996)
TD7 will likely become a tropical storm at 11
98L will probably be a TD by tomorrow and a TS by Monday
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RedingtonBeachGuy
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Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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everyone post where they think TD7 is headed.
Then, take a look at http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF and tell me if doesn't have to cross some fairly consistent shear before those in Florida should start worrying. Any possibility the shear rakes more to a northerly coaurse (ie: SC or NC) or is the shear not strong enough?
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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go check out the storm forum.. there's a thread already dedicated to just that.. and track as well.
HF 1330z28august
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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dvorak ratings are in:
frances at 5.0.. may consider reducing the intensity to 95kt, but will likely keep it at 100kt.
t.d. 7 has 3.0 rating.. which would normally constitute a mid-range tropical storm. will almost surely upgrade at 11am, and if this organization trend on satelite translates to intensity change.. hurricane watches or warnings may go up later today.
98L at d1.5. probably a depression by the 5pm advisory today... slight chance it will be at 11am. it is developing, and moving west a bit more quickly.
HF 1334z28august
Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Aug 28 2004 01:38 PM)
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Any possibility the shear rakes more to a northerly coaurse (ie: SC or NC) or is the shear not strong enough?
....a related question: Which will affect its' path more, the shear or the ridge to the northeast? ... and why?
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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I am hoping that you are right that will be similiar to Floyd. However, I think a lot will depend upon how far west the ridge builds. Its all speculation at this point. If the current Forecast proves correct, this is looking less like a NC/SC storm I think, more of a FL or Georgia Storm. Again purely speculation on my part..
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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