RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
|
|
My personal feedback would be that we are talking about Labor Day weekend here where millions will be on the road already. I have already looked for motel rooms in Valdosta and found they are filling fast. Same with Brunswick, Ga.
If the 'cain continues on it's track, there will be a mass exodus from, not only S. Florida, but many inland communities as well as west coast communities. This one could really create a lodging nightmare. People need to make their plans now.. don't wait.
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
My turn to eat crow. I posted the hypothetical 85nm circle earlier. I said that it was theoretically centered on Melbourne.
I should have said that I centered the circle on Ft Pierce. Since that's where I placed it.
redbird -This was just a circle placed randomly on a map of the FL east coast. No forecast has a landfall prediction at this time. We were looking at how much of the state of FL would be covered by hurricane force winds at an 85nm diameter area of hurricane force winds.
Sorry about the confusion.
|
Ricreig
User
Reged:
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
|
|
Quote:
Neither do I. I just now looked up my coordinates at http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/gazetteer-tbl and it says that I am at
28.01N 80.67W
Yes, and apparantly following the coast line or even inland. Orlando is 28.51 -81.38 (Executive Airport just E of town) so the storm will be maybe just NE of Orlando a little bit on the 4th according to the UKMET data. It is well within the current 85 mile hurricane force wind field mentioned on the 8pm public advisory. No one is going have a nice holiday in most of Florida if this track becomes fact. While a bit far into the future to be so exact on the path, it is starting to become more of a trend for that and other models to indicate this area, including the latest which shows a coast walk now as well. if I read it right.
--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
|
ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
|
|
The 18Z AVN, pretty self depictatory speculation
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avnt...;hour=Animation
|
Ricreig
User
Reged:
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
|
|
Quote:
My turn to eat crow. I posted the hypothetical 85nm circle earlier. I said that it was theoretically centered on Melbourne.
I should have said that I centered the circle on Ft Pierce. Since that's where I placed it.
redbird -This was just a circle placed randomly on a map of the FL east coast. No forecast has a landfall prediction at this time. We were looking at how much of the state of FL would be covered by hurricane force winds at an 85nm diameter area of hurricane force winds.
Sorry about the confusion.
The latest E-Mail from says:
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
This suppots a 70 mile diameter circle around Melbourne for hurricane force winds and given the UKMET forecast, Melbourne could very well be the center of such a circle. Let's hope not, but your crow may not yet be willing to be eaten. He is still flapping his wings 
--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
|
Dennis S
Unregistered
|
|
I live in st. pete beach last time most people went over to Orlando and got nailed, we just went to Plant City and were lucky just a little rain, sometimes running to far can get you in Harms way without knowing it. Think if you find high ground 25 ft with a new constructed hotel you will be just as safe, we all hope.
|
AgentB
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
|
|
Been watching all the activity out there. Impressive to say the least. I'm just starting to get that uneasy feeling since I'm on the east coast of Florida, just north of Daytona. I saw what did here, and it wasn't all that strong when it passed over us. Anyways, looks to be taking aim at Florida's general direction for late next week. A friend of mine had this link which shows tracks for all the Cat 3/4/5 hurricanes passing within 600mi of . Interesting read:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200406_climo.html
--------------------
Check the Surf
|
SoonerShawn
Unregistered
|
|
I know everyone is wrapped up with our major hurricane out there but I was just on the Accuweather site and read something about them watching the western gulf for something. Does anyone know if Joe B. discussed this in his column? By the way, my computer has been down for most of the season and I just got it back up tonight.
ShawnS
|
WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
|
|
Our official NWS forecast from Miami for the end of the week already includes the wording windy, then very windy, and then strong winds.
--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
Gary Gray is OKAY but he turned me off after attempting to spin his "great" 2002 forecast as even good. It was sub-mediocre. Long time readers of this site know that I was all over him in 2002 because he just wasn't getting it. His whole seasonal premise was aimed at the Outer Banks with every storm missing by as close as 100 miles due east. (It was a bit more technical, but that was the bottom line).
As I said last night, I think takes aim at southern North Carolina. I don't know why I picked that out on the Thursday thread at S2K, but it seemed reasonable. There's every argument between a Florida, a North Carolina or no landfall at all. All the ideas are plausible. But the bottom line is we're just going to have to wait. This should be an anxious week as the US gets prepared for its 5th (and possibly 6th *see below* landfalling named storm).
I did pretty good with Gaston. I liked the idea of a landfalling tropical storm (possibly high-end) that would drop localized 10"+. It seems possible that some areas may end up with 15+ before it's all said and done. Gaston still presents nicely on the Wilmington radar.
Bastardi's calling for landfall of Hermine possibly in Massachusetts or Rhode Island tomorrow night. He likes the idea of a 40-50mph storm bringing several hours of rain squalls. If Hermine follows Joe's course (and lookout eastern Long Island too), it will be the 2nd of probably 3 American landfalls in this 10 day period. Joe's making waves today that he cut his initial landfall intensity forecast after discussions with some of his bosses. He said it was far into record territory but had to shave it off just because. He's now thinking his record territory (anyway) numbers may end up being underdone for the season.
But my goodness what a pattern. I told my bosses that the preseason numbers were higher than the record, and I trimmed them to what was 2.5 above normal. The numbers heavily weigh on the intensity trend scale I have developed that you see on the post with the wave look. And the mid season update, with the extra points tacked on actually took it over the record. But I have never seen a set up like this for systems to hit the United States. With the overall pattern the way it is, the water temps the way it is, it may wind up being a case of the extreme forecast not being extreme enough. Certainly with 's damage, and the threat of more big storms, the dollar cost of this years season will be the highest ever.
He also cautioned that what he's watching now, depending on how far northeast ends up will potentially open up the western and central gulf for home brew 6-8 days after . if he hits that (after catching the Gaston/Hermine pattern development), even his most serious detractors would have to acknowledge there was some method to his madness.
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
Ricreig
User
Reged:
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
|
|
Quote:
I know everyone is wrapped up with our major hurricane out there but I was just on the Accuweather site and read something about them watching the western gulf for something. Does anyone know if Joe B. discussed this in his column? By the way, my computer has been down for most of the season and I just got it back up tonight.
ShawnS
It was mentioned elsewhere while this board was down earlier today. I didnt' get a take on what development or direction might occur. While we are at it, the GFL also shows sometthing off the East coast of Florida AFTER has moved on...something maybe part of the wave HankFrank mentioned earlier in this thread. Ouch!
--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
|
meto
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 140
|
|
if you listen to the youd never know a monster was out there. mentioned it for 30 seconds maybe.
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
805 PM EDT SUN 29 AUG 2004
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE COVER
MOST OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW
IS FEEDING INTO AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...EMBEDDED
IN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR...COVERING MOST OF THE GULF
EAST OF 90W. A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 31N84W TO 27N88W
TO 23N94W. AN 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
27N95W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTHWEST
OF 30N85W 24N90W 20N97W
On a lighter note. Is this a new Category or what?
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
CATEGORY THREE FOUR HURRICANE CENTER NEAR 18.8N 55.8W OR
ABOUT 480 MILES/772 KM EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
AT 30/0000 UTC...MOVING WEST 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
115 KT GUSTS 140 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB.
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
Yeah, and they are running the early morning storm video every 15 minutes. Disappointed at the lack of coverage, but she is way out there, and not close to home by some standards.
|
S. Hirschb.
Unregistered
|
|
Keep in mind folks that is over a 1000 miles away from the Florida coast. Still lots of time for things to change. winds are at 125 as read from the plane, and has encountered some shear. I wouldn't be surprised if she weakens a bit. But once she rounds the base of the ridge I expect here to intensify again, as shear should abate UL conditions should improve, and SSTs are 29 -30 degrees C. By Wednesday we should have a better idea on where she's going. No need to panic! she's a slow mover now. But as the ridge strengthens aas Gaston and Hermine evacuate to the NNE, ' Forward speed should pick up again.
|
alan
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
|
|
New 5 day forcast out. 26.5N 77W Having it move slightly WNW. On that course, I believe, it would stay over the water off of Florida.
Here's how I got that:
4 day forcast: 24.5 N 74.5 W. In 24 hrs, it moves 2 degrees N and 2.5 W.
Adding those on another 24 hrs brings it to 28.5 N 79.5 W. That's still off shore.
Tell me if I'm anywhere near correct on my assumptions.
|
Ricreig
User
Reged:
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
|
|
Quote:
if you listen to the youd never know a monster was out there. mentioned it for 30 seconds maybe.
I'm afraid when John Hope died, went from informed opinion to sensationalism. Good thing I still don't have TV back after 
--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
|
Lake Toho
Unregistered
|
|
With that forecast that the put out at 11PM, your assumptions are correct for that forecast. Though I must admit the forecast seems a little odd, given the trend of the models to lean more left than right. Who knows.... sees models we do not, so I always give them the benefit of the doubt, but I am not going to celebrate until they have a better handle on the track. Though I must admit it made me smile a bit seeing that track. 
|
alan
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
|
|
of course, my assumptions only hold true if the hurricane went in a straight line. As we all know, that isn't ususally the case. A 60 mile wobble, like what David did in 79 could cause a landfall.
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
Looks like used the same method.
...ADVISORY NUMBER 21
...OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 26.5N 77.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
