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Wxwatcher2
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Loc:
Re: Latest GFS..... [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #22375 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:47 AM

Hugs the coast is a bad scenario. It won't loose as much punch or as fast as it heads up the coast. It's a matter of where it comes inland and how far inland.

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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Latest GFS..... [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #22376 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:51 AM

Does anyone know it the dumped new data into the models tonight..

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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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wxman007
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Re: Latest GFS..... [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #22377 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:52 AM

yup...should get into every 00Z and 12Z run now until landfall..

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Jason Kelley


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rjp
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 12
Loc: Charleston, SC
Re: Latest GFS..... [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #22378 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:54 AM

Wait, wait, cat 5 and mobile, right?! lol

In all seriousness, it seems as if the latest GFS run is almost a worst case scenario. Slowing down to almost a halt could cause massive flooding!

Anyone have any idea as to how fast it may go once it finally does come inland? Just wondering how much rain/wind we may see here in SC.

Well, this assumes the forecast goes something like its being predicted as of now. We all know this will probabbly change somewhat.


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Reged: Tue
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Latest GFS..... [Re: wxman007]
      #22379 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:55 AM

Interesting that this is the first night in a couple nights that the 00Z did not move to the right and north..

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Wxwatcher2
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Re: Latest GFS..... [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #22380 - Wed Sep 01 2004 01:02 AM

anybody got a link to the GFS model?

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scottsvb1
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Re: Latest GFS..... [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #22381 - Wed Sep 01 2004 01:02 AM

Well it does move it nw in about 24 hours but by 60 it slows and turns wnw towards melbourne.

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BillD
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Re: Latest GFS..... [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #22382 - Wed Sep 01 2004 01:08 AM

NCEP Model Analyses and Forecasts

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cyclone_head
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 74
Loc: Florida
Re: Latest GFS..... [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #22383 - Wed Sep 01 2004 01:09 AM


Here you go

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_102s.gif


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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: Latest GFS..... [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #22384 - Wed Sep 01 2004 01:26 AM

This reminds me of how I felt about Charley's track for the three-four days prior to landfall. I felt that the NHC had it's basic movement about right. What they couldn't tell was where exactly would Charley cross the coastline. I think Frances presents the same problem: the track to the WPB area seems right. A slow down, the ridge builds back in and wins round one pushing her into Florida somewhere, but how far north she gets is the question. Ridge then retreats with help from low moving into the Plains, allowing her to go along the western edge, or north thru the state. But the entry point could be anywhere from WPB to Daytona, IMO. I think the NHC's track in a day or two will end up looking pretty much like what the track at 11pm looked like, with some changes maybe in location, but not how she gets there.

Since these storms have such a sick sense of humor, find the spot on the east central coast with the most trailer parks, and that's where the darn thing will go in. It always seems that way.


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john03
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Models [Re: cyclone_head]
      #22385 - Wed Sep 01 2004 01:29 AM

i guess a west turn at the end of the runs....
Tropical Models
seems since 11:00noon yesterday...models are moving more south and west...


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: Latest GFS..... [Re: cyclone_head]
      #22386 - Wed Sep 01 2004 01:30 AM

Nogaps is in line with GFS but alittle faster. It does have the turn but is just sw of the GFS during the whole run. Landfall for GFS was near Melbourne and NOGAPS near Pt.St.Lucie. I should note since GFS is slower it shows it in 108 hours and NOGAPS near 84hours. CMC is off to the NE more again but does show the west turn nearing Jacksonville in 108 hours then heading due N into Savanah-Charleston. Though I disagree with this, it does help the other models out on 2 points. 1 they all agree with the tropical model suites a wnw or even just n of w window of movement will happen but where? near 26? or as much as 29? I think GFS has this right on target but just a tad faster but tad slower then the NOGAPS with landfall again Nero Vero beach-Melbourne, I will make my offical forcast again later in the day after the 12Z runs.

scottsvb. BTW wish there was radar in the Bahamas.


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: Latest GFS..... [Re: scottsvb1]
      #22387 - Wed Sep 01 2004 01:42 AM

Joepub your exactly right. Also since we always watch the models.. it shows wnw and then more nw during the 24-60 hour time frame. Lets watch the current movement. Though HPC says current movement is WNW, if you watch the radar its been just n of west more near 280dg instead of 290dg. It does make a difference in initizations on model runs.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Latest GFS..... [Re: scottsvb1]
      #22388 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:00 AM

Just logged on and trying to catch up.
Use your eye as much as the coordinates.
NHC/TPC Averages the coordinates, and they Are Not the hour by hour heading and speed!
A handheld GPS will work, as will several Java based programs on the web.
I'll see what I can find.


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Pam in Vero
Unregistered




Re: Latest GFS..... [Re: joepub1]
      #22389 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:05 AM

I saw the aftermath of Charley what was interesting was a genltlemen from Tampa who was there to help said the temp there felt like a fall day of about 75 as if the front had already reached them.

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mikeG
Unregistered




Re: recon [Re: scottsvb1]
      #22390 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:05 AM

URNT11 KNHC 010503
97779 05034 40224 66200 30500 12053 1004/ /3146
RMK AF861 1206A Frances OB 03

at 22.4n 66.2w
at 10,000ft...?
winds 61mph

URNT12 KNHC 010540
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/0540Z
B. 20 DEG 59 MIN N
67 DEG 48 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2561 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 148 DEG 123 KT
G. 054 DEG 15 NM
H. 939 MB
I. 10 C/ 3045 M
J. 22 C/ 3049 M
K. 5 C/ NA
L. CLOSED EYE
M. C22
N. 12345/7
O. .1 / 1 NM
P. AF861 1206A Frances OB 05
MAX FL WIND 123 KT NE QUAD 0535Z.


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
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Forecast discussion -- Frances [Re: MikeC]
      #22391 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:06 AM

One last hurrah on my end for the evening before I head to bed...

Introduction -- Frances continues to have an excellent satellite interpretation, with a well-defined CDO and excellent outflow on the west side of the storm. It is somewhat losing the outflow channel with the ULL around 23 N/45 W, but outflow remains pretty good on the east side of the storm. We're currently in the satellite eclipse for the night, though I don't expect much to have changed by the time we are out of the eclipse period. The upper low to the west of the storm near 24 N/79 W is weakening to some degree, but remains a distinct entity. The steering ridge remains in place both near and ahead of Frances. Recon is enroute and we should have a vortex message/center fix in the next hour or so.

Track Reasoning -- Frances remains on a just slightly north of due west track, a track that should continue for the forseeable future. I expect the storm to make landfall in the 84-96hr time frame (i.e. around Saturday) in between West Palm Beach and Miami.

As mentioned above, the ridge is firmly in place north of Frances, guiding the storm along at a pretty fast clip. A weaker ridge center is located over southern Georgia -- think of it as an extension of the ridge. The upper low to Frances' west is retrograding, but slowly. I think it's almost done retrograding, to tell the truth. The trough in the east central U.S. is becoming elongated east-west (partially as Gaston races out to sea) and slowing it's forward progression as a low forms in the Mississippi region. Another low is currently over western Texas and moving towards the east, but I don't think it is going to be a big factor in this case.

Frances should continue moving west or west-northwest ward in the short-term. There may be some slight jogs to the noth, particularly in the 24-48hr time frame, but the general west-northwestward motion should resume thereafter. I'm not sure I'm going to buy into the slowing at 96hr or so, but I do see why the models are doing what they are doing (and for what they forecast to evolve, it's a very valid response. I just don't agree with that evolution). The ridge is very strong and I don't see anything out there to really kick it. If anything, Gaston exiting is going to make it slightly stronger, while any energy from Canada is currently getting shunted eastward as well, not allowing the trough to dig any further. I don't see much of a reason for this to change, not until the storm makes landfall.

Using the Univ. of Wisconsin deep-layer flow analyses, one can see this. With such a strong storm, a deeper layer flow regime is going to steer the storm; with a weaker storm, I could see a turn, but that'd be a cat 2/3 storm or lower. The current deep-layer regime supports a more westerly - and faster - track through Florida. I favor the 850-250 and 700-200 mb analyses, both of which support this argument, and I don't see much of a reason for this to change over the next few days.

With that established, what does the storm do after landfall? The ridge may begin to erode with time, but should remain around in some manner. As the storm begins to weaken over land, it may get pulled slightly further to the north as well by the mean flow. (Note: the NHC considers the 1000-100mb mean flow to be a fairly good indicator of storm motion, according to a lecture by Richard Pasch. I don't think the entire atmosphere is a good indicator, though, just a subsection.) The storm should re-enter the Gulf at some point, give or take a few (+/- 15-25mi) miles of Tampa Bay. Everywhere from Biloxi to Apalachicola needs to watch for a recurving storm in the 5-6 day time frame; I'm trending towards Panama City, but that's more of a hunch right now.

Models -- Yes, this track is to the left of most of the models. If I've learned anything in classes and research, it's that the models are usually wrong to the left. I just don't think they are initializing these features well, and I'd like to see what they were able to do if all eastern and central U.S. NWS officers were launching 6hrly baloons for upper-air observations. Really, I can see why they are doing what they are doing, save for the extreme outliers, but I'm not in agreement at this time with those cases. If I'm off on the track forecast above, however, it will almost assuredly be to the right. It will be a really close call on all of the features, however. Note that through Frances' lifetime, the GFS has had the smallest track errors out to 120hr (the FSU Superensemble has a major advantage through 96hr over *all* models, though it falls slightly behind the GFS at 108 and 120hr). As the synoptic patterns and track come more under the influence of the midlatitudes, the global models should still do fairly well -- but 5 day track errors are still 150+ miles. Bottom line -- the models aren't out to lunch at all, but as with any guidance, use it as just that and add in your own analysis of the situation.

Intensity -- Frances remains a healthy cat 4 hurricane. Wind shear is low -- not negligible, but around 10m/s, more than sufficient for maintenance of the storm and some strengthening. (Aside -- useful for diagnosing shear are the UWisc/CIMSS wind shear analyses. You can get it by doing a google search or by going to the PSU/FSU Tropical Cyclone Model page.) The storm has about a day to make it to strengthen further, then a combination of an eyewall replacement cycle and slightly increased shear should level the intensity off for awhile. There will be another window for intensity increases closer to landfall, around 60-72hr, as waters in the Bahamas and off of Florida are very warm and shear is forecast to be very low. It's not inconcieveable to see Frances strengthen to about 150mph in the short-term, level off around 140-150 for a day or so, and then strengthen again to borderline 4/5 status as it nears landfall.

Further strengthening will likely be slightly inhibited by interactions with the Bahamas, albeit not to any large degree. There's also the chance for solely maintaining the storm until landfall...and the further north the storm makes landfall, the weaker it is likely to be. If the storm nears Cape Canaveral, it's likely to be a low end 4; Jacksonville, a 3; and further north, borderline 3. Bottom line -- a very dangerous hurricane is going to make landfall somewhere in the next few days. It should weaken some overland and only strengthen slightly if it makes it out over the Gulf before a second landfall. The northern Gulf coast should expect a cat 1/2 storm if this scenario unfolds.

Closing -- I'll add in this disclaimer: remember, the storm is a big storm, not a point. The entire Florida peninsula and panhandle, except for extreme SW Florida and the Keys, are likely to feel some impact of this storm. Regions further north in Georgia and the Carolinas are by no means out of the woods yet. This storm does not have very good guidance consensus yet, though I expect this to change some tomorrow. Everyone up and down the SE US and northern Gulf coast needs to follow this storm over the coming days -- no one is out of the woods yet. Tomorrow will be a pivotal day. Get some rest everyone, we'll see where this thing is going, how fast, and how strong in the morning.

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mikeG
Unregistered




Re: recon [Re: mikeG]
      #22392 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:07 AM

eye might be smaller....i remembered 30m..... 12hrs ago
but pressure.....same...


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances [Re: Clark]
      #22393 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:11 AM

Whats your point Dan? We all know its the overall run of at least 3 hours not hour to hour. I also posted that a few times over last 2 days. Nevertheless like Steve posted earlier tonight, they can also just say its moving just N of W as 290-295dg is WNW. Model show that then a turn to 310dg after 24 hours. I do think this will happen.

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
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Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances [Re: scottsvb1]
      #22394 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:18 AM

Um, I'm not sure what you're getting at there (and I'm not even Dan)...but for one, the storm isn't even moving 290 or 295 right now (the long term average is around 275). The post was just my thoughts -- take 'em or leave 'em. We'll see what happens, and I'm ready to eat crow if it doesn't turn out, but I won't be the only one around these (not the board, FSU) parts doing so if it doesn't pan out.

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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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