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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances [Re: Unregistered User]
      #22395 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:20 AM

Great info Clark. GN and me too, its 220am.

scottsvb


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances [Re: scottsvb1]
      #22396 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:21 AM

LOL not you clark,,daniel above,,,heehe I think we both need sleep,,great job.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances [Re: scottsvb1]
      #22397 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:21 AM

Let me plug the last few fixes in and I'll post the headings and speed from a GPS.
My point was, during Charley the storm Stopped it's westward movement and began a slight East track for 6 hours before NHC said it was turning toward the NNE.
The Recon fixes for Charley's turn started around 1200Z at his most western point. After 12Z all the longitudes were Less/ East of the 12Z fix. Hence movement East of due North, while the advisories kept saying Charley was headed North toward Tampa.
*Use the NHC Advisories for the Official forecast, but if your Eyes are telling you there is a track turn-It Is a track turn.**

Edited by danielw (Wed Sep 01 2004 02:35 AM)


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mikeG
Unregistered




Re: recon [Re: scottsvb1]
      #22398 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:22 AM

URNT11 KNHC 010611
97779 06114 40198 69100 30500 31035 1006/ /3107
RMK AF861 1206A Frances OB 09

seems to still be at or around 10,000 ft flying
19.8n
69.1w


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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances [Re: Clark]
      #22399 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:22 AM

Quote:

Um, I'm not sure what you're getting at there (and I'm not even Dan)...but for one, the storm isn't even moving 290 or 295 right now (the long term average is around 275). The post was just my thoughts -- take 'em or leave 'em. We'll see what happens, and I'm ready to eat crow if it doesn't turn out, but I won't be the only one around these (not the board, FSU) parts doing so if it doesn't pan out.





models are coming together...we will have a solid track no later than 11 am today and quite frankly this is a central south florida deal. +- 100 miles WPB.


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mikeG
Unregistered




Re: recon [Re: jlauderdal]
      #22400 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:26 AM

MF211 M0676 MF123
OBS 01 AT 0504Z
OBS 08 AT 0535Z
OBS 01 SFC WND /////
01208 10680 13780 11312 31089
02206 20682 23939 21110 31088
03205 30684 33017 30909 32061
04203 40686 43053 40909 33050
05201 50688 53079 50808 32046
06199 60689 63092 60908 30035
07198 70691 73103 71007 31035
MF209 M0679 MF104
OBS 01 AT 0545Z
OBS 07 AT 0610Z
OBS 07 SFC WND /////
RMK AF861 1206A Frances OB 10

max winds on first pass...
123
21.1n
67.6w
data readings almost 20mins ago...
pass 2 on the way...


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alan
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances [Re: jlauderdal]
      #22401 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:29 AM

New NOGAPS model out. Scary stuff for Florida.

Has the storm right off the WPB coast in 72 hours and exiting Tampa at 108 hours and getting to Appalachacola in 136 hours. That's two and a half days of constant rain in Florida, not to mention the wind. That would cause massive flooding throughout the state like I've never seen here.

Edited by alan (Wed Sep 01 2004 02:30 AM)


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john03
Unregistered




interesting [Re: alan]
      #22402 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:42 AM

SPECIAL NCEP DISCUSSION

CENTRAL OPERATIONS/NCEP/NWS/WASHINGTON DC

0257 UTC WED SEP 01 2004



010257Z...00Z MODEL CYCLE RUNNING SMOOTHLY AND ON

TIME. MODEL STATUS...NGM HAS COMPLETED/ETA OUT TO H+75

AND THE GFS STARTED ON TIME.



GFS RAOB RECAP...



TAE/72214 - SHORT REPORT TO 410MB.

MROC/78762 - TTBB NOT AVAILABLE.



ADDITIONALLY...NCEP RECEIVED 9 USAF DROPSONDE REPORTS

BTW 21Z-00Z. THEY WERE AROUND 64.3-66.2W/21.9-19.0N.

ALL DROP DATA LOOKED GOOD. BOTH THE USAF AND NOAA G-IV

HAVE BEEN TASKED WITH FLIGHTS BEGINNING 09/02/00Z THRU

09/02/12Z.



RAPID SCAN OPS FROM GOES E BEGAN AT 2026Z AND WILL LAST

UNTIL 09/05/0026Z TO HELP MONITOR THE MOVEMENT OF HCN

FRANCES...GOES E SAT PIXS WILL BE N/A APPROX BETWEEN

0400Z/0600Z DURING THE ECLIPSE OF GOES E...THIS RSO WILL

BE N/A APPROX FROM 0800Z/1000Z DAILY DURING THE ECLIPSE

OF GOES W...ALSO...SUPER RAPID SCAN OPS WILL BE N/A WHILE

THIS RSO IS IN EFFECT...



WOOLDRIDGE/SDM/NCO/NCEP


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Headings [Re: alan]
      #22403 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:45 AM

Aircraft Fixes changed to Degrees and decimals.
1730Z..20.32/ 64.88
1907Z..20.37/ 65.33 290degrees for 25.5nm
2057Z..20.53/ 65.75 306degrees for 25.5nm
2307Z..20.60/ 66.17 293degrees for 23.8nm
From 1730Z fix to 2307Z fix, the distance is 74.3nm with an Average heading of 297degrees.
So 297degrees is the average, but you can see the different point to point headings.
**These are Recon fixes and NOT the Official NHC fix. This was just and example of how the headings change from time to time and NHC uses an average for their Advisories.**

Edited by danielw (Wed Sep 01 2004 03:25 AM)


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mikeG
Unregistered




Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances [Re: alan]
      #22404 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:47 AM

sat goes e back up.....wow....lookin.... well different...sick?

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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 441
Loc: Georgia Tech
Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances [Re: alan]
      #22405 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:48 AM

Quote:

New NOGAPS model out. Scary stuff for Florida.

Has the storm right off the WPB coast in 72 hours and exiting Tampa at 108 hours and getting to Appalachacola in 136 hours. That's two and a half days of constant rain in Florida, not to mention the wind. That would cause massive flooding throughout the state like I've never seen here.




Sigh, I evac'd Clearwater to Atlanta when Charley was knocking, (I had planned the trip, Just left a little earlier than I intended)

But, I hate the idea of evac'ing again, Maybe I'll stay with some friends who live on the highest grounds.... And to think, All my friends were laughing at me because I was getting my empty gallon jugs and filling them with water and freezing the last few days.... heh.... now if I just had some sandbags....

Seriously, I don't know where this storm is going to go, if I could wishcast it away, I would. So instead, I just hope my friends down here will start taking this a little more seriously, particularly if the storm actually decides to make a cross state run from WPB to TPA. (And to think I have a friend who wants to come to here to avoid being in WPB... I"m in the A zone evac section, oops!)

Good luck people,
Be safe
Mark

PS. where could I find a more detailed explanation of the various models and their typical tendencies... is there a document (or set of documents that has this information? and if not, how difficult would it be to create one?)


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N. Brevard
Unregistered




Re: Latest GFS..... [Re: scottsvb1]
      #22406 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:52 AM

Thanks- that's me. 6 miles inland from the barrier island @ the Brevard/Volusia County line. Here's a stupid question... how far could the snapped off tops of 50' pines travel in 120 mph winds? g'night

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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 441
Loc: Georgia Tech
Stair stepping back west? [Re: MikeC]
      #22407 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:55 AM

After a 2 hour eclipse. The first sat pic seems to show an almost due west motion the last 2.5 hours. either it's doing that stair step fun, or the trend wnw has (Temporarily) trended back west. Anyone else see what I'm seeing?

The storm looks healthy enough, though warmer on the Northwest side... Perhaps an eyewall replacement?

Mark


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mikeG
Unregistered




Re: eyewall replacement? [Re: Bloodstar]
      #22408 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:58 AM

Perhaps an eyewall replacement?

yes that seems that might be.


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alan
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
Re: Forecast discussion -- Frances [Re: Bloodstar]
      #22409 - Wed Sep 01 2004 03:00 AM

The models are a tricky subject. For one, there's just too many of them to keep track of. Second, some are designed to focus on tropical systems, others are aligned to more traditional weather.
The key with models is to not look at one and say that's the path it's going to take, although it is really exciting to see these models put out their thoughts. Instead, watch trends with the models and you'll get a pretty good idea of where the storm will go.


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Bev
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 130
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
Re: Latest GFS..... [Re: N. Brevard]
      #22410 - Wed Sep 01 2004 03:01 AM

... how far could the snapped off tops of 50' pines travel in 120 mph winds?

I can tell you from experience, during Charley we had a 4' diameter oak lifted completely out of the ground, tossed into the air and it landed 30 yards away in another tree.

Photo available upon request.

Best of luck for this storm. Frankly, I'm tired of them. Ready to move to Nebraska. :-) And I'm a 7th generation Floridian.

-Bev

--------------------
Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.


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mikeG
Unregistered




Re: recon [Re: mikeG]
      #22411 - Wed Sep 01 2004 03:08 AM

URNT11 KNHC 010644
97779 06444 40198 66900 30300 21050 08079 /3107
RMK AF861 1206A Frances OB 11


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: recon [Re: mikeG]
      #22412 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:03 AM

This one is for rickonboat. Hey Rick, check out the 00Z run for the UK Met. Heh. It's a SFL hit followed by an "INTENSE" hit around Mobile Bay.

UK MET

As for the slowdown stall scenarios, that's bad stuff. That would promote some of the worst tidal flooding and storm surge in memory (both coasts).

Bastardi posted early (or is it late?) this morning. He's narrowed his landfall from St. Simeon Island to his prior ideas (NC). He just doesn't see the setup for the FL track, but it's almost like he's being stubborn. I guess I'm not one to talk since I have a landfall just a few hundreds miles south of his. He thinks the keys are 1) where Frances comes up in relation to the Bahamas (should it stay east, it's a farther up storm) and 2) Climo and the difficulty of hitting that part of Florida from the SE. Next setup (post Frances) should feature a backing trof (based on the ideas of Sondgra trending west with a retrograding ridge in the WPAC) and a high centered around 35-70/75 (Andrew setup). But there's nothing heavyduty in the pipeline so hopefully we'll escape that pattern.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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skwirt79
Unregistered




Re: Frances Approaches the Southeastern Bahamas [Re: mikeG]
      #22414 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:15 AM

Hello. I've been reading this thread and comprehend approximately 72% of it. (If that). I just have a laymen's question for all of you who seem to know much more about this than i do.
I live in southern Central Florida. I also have a leaky roof. (compliments of Charley). What's the chance of having an even leakier roof now? In other words, are we going to get hit? All these acronym models are confusing.
Thanks for your help.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: UKMET [Re: mikeG]
      #22415 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:19 AM

Thanks Steve, I'm 154nm and 41 nm from the last 2 positions on the UKMET. That's really close. Like Frederick '79.

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