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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re:Frances and GOM [Re: doug]
      #22500 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:51 AM

Quote:

Hello:
I am actually on the central west coast where we DO NOT need this to come. In fact nobody needs this...it will finish the agricultural damage only begun by Charley to say nothing of the potential damage in lives and other property. This is not wish casting! But I am telling my associates that this system can and may cross the state and effect them on Saturday, which IS NOT being broadcast by the media here as they rely solely on the NHC guidance for advice.



Absolutely. In fact, if the forecast track turns out to be dead-on, it is likely that all but maybe Ft Lauderdale (at the point) will be seeing Hurricane force winds, and for sure, strong TS winds. In your area, low areas will see some flooding in all likelyhood. Your observation of what is *possible* is also right on, a small shift in the actual track could easily put you in danger and IF the models happen to be correct, you could see the eye as easily as any of us in the northern 2/3 of the state. You are right to prepare accordingly.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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kelcot
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: Ricreig]
      #22501 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:52 AM

Richard-
I'll be doing a lot more than praying for ya'll! My entire family is in Vero. I'll take a little flooding in Atlanta over a full fource cat IV or cat V hurricane anyday!


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eligrace
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: Unregistered User]
      #22502 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:52 AM

as of the 11:00am advisory she is stll moving along at 14 knots

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: eligrace]
      #22504 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:55 AM

>>> Lastest Discussion is up.. Weatherunderground appears to be having issues so I will post it here..

Thanks. Haven't been able to access wunderground tropical page for some time.

BTW, http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html is also an excellent resource...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: FlaRebel]
      #22505 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:56 AM

looks like we may get some of this yet..still hoping for that north turn (not to wish bad luck on others) but i don't think it gonna happen

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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: kelcot]
      #22506 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:58 AM

Quote:

Richard-
I'll be doing a lot more than praying for ya'll! My entire family is in Vero. I'll take a little flooding in Atlanta over a full fource cat IV or cat V hurricane anyday!


...And I will reciprocate. You will be the first to know when it is upon us as you are much nearer the landfall point as it stands. I too will trade rain for the eye of a hurricane any day, even if it means flooding. My point was based on my observations that many times the deaths and damage from tropical systems often come well after the eye is just a bad memory...the rain shield that moves N and E over our northern neighbors. When it comes ashore down there, you be sure and call me on my cellphone and let me know if it was all hype or I should find the most solid wall I can hide behind on the tallest hill 'cause it's not hype!!! :?:

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Dani
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: eligrace]
      #22507 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:59 AM

Zipinfo.com

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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
Re:Frances and GOM [Re: Ricreig]
      #22508 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:00 AM

11 am track takes the storm in near Sebastian Inlet on Florida's East coast and move it North Westward through downtown Orlando, over Lake Apopka and into the Leesburg
and villages area.

This is a heavily populated section of the state with many reitrement mobile homes etc.

I'm sure that the local forecasts will issue many special statements soon.
However, all precautions need to be taken by anyone
within 100 miles of this path for extended hurricane force winds and torrential rains.


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kelcot
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: Ricreig]
      #22509 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:03 AM

I won't have a clue when makes landfall. I'm up here in Atl. But, I will be heading to Panama City Beach on Thursday (girls weekend!!!!!!) And if this does at much damage as I think it's going to do, I'll be headed down to Vero next week to help out my mom and grandparents.

My advice to you is to build a couple of those walls to hide behind.


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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Re:Frances and GOM [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #22510 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:03 AM

Am I wrong in seeing more and more models taking her over Florida and into the GOM. This couls be a double whammy. Could restrangthen over the Gulf and hit as a major again. Where is Cat 5 rick when we need him?

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Shawn W.
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 23
Loc: Charleston, S.C.
Re:Frances and GOM [Re: jth]
      #22511 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:08 AM

From the latest discussion:

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF Frances IS FORECAST TO PERSIST BUT TO WEAKEN. THIS WOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

The ridge could weakn faster, or more, than the models anticipate. I doubt a landfall in Northern Georgia / South Carolina, but somewhere in North Florida is still a good possibility.


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kelcot
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
Re:Frances and GOM [Re: jth]
      #22512 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:08 AM

I can't help thinking what you're thinking jth. Didn't Opal do the same type of thing a few years ago?

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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: I agree on one point Frank [Re: Frank P]
      #22513 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:10 AM

Frances does not look though as if she is slowing down at all.The other point maybe just a jog but she has been going due W for almost 2 hrs.We would need another 3or 4 hrs to possibily call this a trend.

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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re:Frances and GOM [Re: kelcot]
      #22514 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:12 AM

Opal didn't do that....she came from the Bay of Campche...but you have to look no further than Andrew to see that it can happen...and the conditions in the Gulf are more favorable now than they were for Andrew for strenghening...it all depends on how far south it enters the Gulf and how long it stays over water.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re:Frances and GOM [Re: jth]
      #22515 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:13 AM

Quote:

Am I wrong in seeing more and more models taking her over Florida and into the GOM. This couls be a double whammy. Could restrangthen over the Gulf and hit as a major again. Where is Cat 5 rick when we need him?




Nope your not seeing things . This is looking more and more possible each model run.

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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TIGER
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 5
Loc: NEW SMYRNA BEACH, FL
Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #22516 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:13 AM

I'm on the East Coast about 10 miles south of Daytona Beach.

I just got word that people living on 'Beachside' here, East of the Intercoastal Waterway, will be evacuated tomorrow morning and the Causeway Bridges from the Mainland to Beachside are being closed down tomorrow.

For this county to do this at this time is very unusual. They normally let things lie till the last minute. Apparently they must be expecting severe things here, regardless of how the path deviates a little bit, or they would NEVER take this approach so early in the scenario.

Hope this info is useful to some of you out there.

To everybody who will be affected by this hurricane, my prayers are with you all, GOD BLESS!


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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Re:Frances and GOM [Re: wxman007]
      #22517 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:15 AM

Jason...Are you starting to have your suspicions as well. This is looking like a setup very similar to Andrew, but a few degrees north. Meaning instead of south of miami and then LA, it could be north of Miami and Pensacola.

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: I agree on one point Frank [Re: javlin]
      #22518 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:19 AM

Hey Jav, my Biloxi neighbor... I don't think its going due west, she has consistently gained latitude over time... this is evident on the IR loops... NHC says 290.... wnw is 292.5... best as I can determine, at the moment its less than 290, but not much less, maybe 285... it doesn't seem like much, but if you extrapolate this distance over 400-500 miles it could have hugh implications... if the system doesn't correct itself and get back more to the 290 heading....

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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re:Frances and GOM [Re: jth]
      #22519 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:23 AM

I've had my suspicsions since Saturday....if the trend holds it will likely be in my forecast package tonight.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re:Frances and GOM [Re: Shawn W.]
      #22520 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:25 AM

Shawn W. -- I think the ridge being stronger/holding much more than the models anticipate is a better bet than it weakening more than they anticipate. There's just nothing out there that looks to be strong enough to weaken it to any large degree -- and by that, I mean turn it north sharply.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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