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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4111
Loc: Orlando, FL
Hurricane Frances in the Morning
      #22437 - Wed Sep 01 2004 07:00 AM

3PM Update
Frances still on track currently, an eyewall replacement cycle for the storm is currently underway... update at 5 to come.


Big Image

11AM Update
Hurricane Warnings are up for the Central Bahamas now.


(Image thanks to Skeetobite)

Forecast track remains similar to earlier today, and because of the size of the storm we might be seeing Hurricane Watches along the coast as early as tonight or tomorrow morning and warnings on Friday. It's still important to watch trends as it moves.

Original Update
Hurricane Frances is moving west northwest toward the southern Bahama Islands today. Frances is expected to take a more northwesterly course on Friday toward the central Florida peninsula.

Her winds are currently at 140mph with gusts to 170mph - a Category IV hurricane. While some fluctuation in intensity is likely over the next couple of days, I now expect landfall in the Stuart to Fort Pierce area at 5am on Saturday morning with winds of 145mph gusting to 175mph. [This does not mean people outside this area should let their guard down - mike]

Frances should pass 25 to 30 miles southwest of Melbourne at 4pm Saturday afternoon - winds at that time near the center should be 115mph gusting to 140mph with winds in the Melbourne area and along the beaches at 100mph gusting to 125mph.

The storm should be near Ocala at 11am on Sunday with winds down to 60mph gusting to 75mph at that time. Frances will become a slow moving storm over the peninsula, so expect an extended period of high winds and heavy rain. Flooding conditions can be expected with rainfall amounts of six to ten inches. Rain squalls are likely to continue on Sunday as the hurricane weakens and slowly moves to the north. I'll update this if any significant changes should occur.

I urge you to take necessary actions now in order to prepare for this hurricane.

- ED


(Image thanks to Skeetobite)



Although things can change, confidence is starting to go up on this scenario. Check tonight again.

If evacuations were necessary I'd expect to start hearing about them late Thursday or during Friday. Barrier islands along the Florida east coast from maybe as far south as Dade/Broward to north as Volusia could be evacuated, so be aware. Listen to local media and officials at this point. There still is some time for this to change.

The potential for a prolonged period with hurricane conditions is concerning.

- Mike

Jim Williams over at Hurricane City will be doing live broadcasts about Hurricane Frances startiing tonight at 8PM EST.

Event RelatedLinks
Frances Models -- This image animated over time
All model "Spaghetti" for Frances from hurricanealley
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image of Frances approach
High Speed Satellite Loops of Frances (Click floater)



General Links
Current Aircraft Recon Info



NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


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cjzydeco
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL
Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: MikeC]
      #22440 - Wed Sep 01 2004 07:23 AM

On the graphic that shows several of the model tracks, the NHCA9BE Model (Yellow) it looks like it has the hurricane track doubling back on itself. Anybody make any sense of this?
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif


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AmateurJohn
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 27
Loc: Highlands County, FL
Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: MikeC]
      #22442 - Wed Sep 01 2004 07:30 AM

The StormCarib site has an interesting tool that lets you key in your lat. and long. and takes the current forecast storm positions to show you how close the eye of the storm will get to you and when. It draws a map of the current track projection with your location highlighted. Looks like I'll only be 55 miles from the eye Saturday night. Here's the URL for the Closest Point of Approach tool:

http://stormcarib.com/closest.cgi

Which quadrant of this storm is expected to have the most/least rain and highest/lowest winds? Just wondering if we'll be on the best or worst side of this as it approaches and passes us. Thanks.

--------------------
Lake Placid - 27.3N 81.3W


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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: cjzydeco]
      #22443 - Wed Sep 01 2004 07:36 AM

Looking at the UKMET model, it seems to me that that model is taking it over some of the more populated areas in Fla...(MCO, TPA and then into the GOM with the last frame being the most sinister taking it right near to New Orleans.)

In looking at the different tracks, what's the history of accuracy of the UKMET and the GFDL? :?:

--------------------
You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!


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Cathy
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 16
Loc: Florida Native - Bartow (Polk ...
Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: MikeC]
      #22444 - Wed Sep 01 2004 07:38 AM

As I look out my window, as far as I can see down my street, there are shoulder high piles of limbs and debris yet to be removed. I also see "brown patches" up high in the oaks - obviously dead limbs yet to fall. I wonder how much more damage these flying objects will cause?

My insurance agent advised that if we reported a claim from Charley and were hit again by Frances we would have 2 deductibles. She explained that if we were robed on tuesday and again on friday, that would also be two claims / deductibles. I suppose that makes sense, but at 5% of total coverage, for us that make it about $8000 a pop!

Last time I lost power for 8 days - planning for it again in Polk County Florida.

Thanks to all for keeping this board running and pertinent!


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: A98E model-backtrack [Re: cjzydeco]
      #22445 - Wed Sep 01 2004 07:38 AM

Yes, I saw it too. I have the text model in front of me and it Does backtrack.
Possibly a human interface data input error.
9/5 00Z 25.7 79.0
9/6 00Z 22.3 70.1
I've seen some strange misprints with this storm, but Not This Strange.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Concentric Eyewalls [Re: danielw]
      #22447 - Wed Sep 01 2004 07:46 AM

The latest Vortex has concentric eyewalls. Inner at 22nm and outer at 50nm. Other than maintaining her present strength, should we expect any changes from this rare pattern?

AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE Frances WAS LOCATED
BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE
69.1 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES... 210 KM...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
OR 780 MILES...1260 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALM BEACH FLORIDA.


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Fingers1116
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3
Loc: Mobile, Al
Re: A98E model-backtrack [Re: danielw]
      #22448 - Wed Sep 01 2004 07:47 AM

Hey all. Been reading forum for 2 years, and decided to go ahead and join. I was wondering who else, other than myself thinks there is a strong possibility she could re-emerge into the GOM and cause a major problem for the N Central Gulf Caost? Say between NO and Panama City?

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re:Frances and GOM [Re: Fingers1116]
      #22450 - Wed Sep 01 2004 08:05 AM

Well at least the UKMET model does, and the GFS did over last weekend.
I checked back to the text tropical models on 8/29 at 00Z.
The BAMD and BAMM have the best success of the 4 tropical models. Both being close to the actual NHC position.
BAMM has the best track record the last 2 days, in the 48 and 72 hour forecasts.
It was 0.0/ 0.8E off at 48 hours. About 52nm.
and....0.3S/ 0.6E off at 72 hrs. About 38nm


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: A98E model-backtrack [Re: Fingers1116]
      #22451 - Wed Sep 01 2004 08:16 AM

Quote:

Hey all. Been reading forum for 2 years, and decided to go ahead and join. I was wondering who else, other than myself thinks there is a strong possibility she could re-emerge into the GOM and cause a major problem for the N Central Gulf Caost? Say between NO and Panama City?


First, welcome. As to your question, we in the OFFICIAL forecast area should discount models for the most part and concentrate on the probable fact of a hit as forecast. However, I see you are out of the area so, models are still a useful tool. There are good and often reliable models that suggest just your scenereo, so, keep tuned to this bat-channel and start considering your options IF that model suddenly becomes forecast. By the way, wake my sleepyhead son who also lives in Mobile and tell him to sober up and watch the weather news <grin>.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Fingers1116
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3
Loc: Mobile, Al
Re: A98E model-backtrack [Re: Ricreig]
      #22452 - Wed Sep 01 2004 08:34 AM

Thanks . . .Guess even we up here on the Coast need to keep a close eye on her. I do hope and pray that none of our Cyclone Watcher friends in S.F. have to go thru another one so soon, but that is beginninmg to look inevitable. We'll be praying for all of you up here that's for sure.

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Dani
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: AmateurJohn]
      #22453 - Wed Sep 01 2004 08:35 AM

That projection does not work - no matter what you enter it says 0?

Am I doing something wrong?


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #22454 - Wed Sep 01 2004 08:36 AM

Nice, but try to explain in laymen terms MCO, TPA.
Thanks.

--------------------
________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4111
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #22455 - Wed Sep 01 2004 08:40 AM

Quote:

Nice, but try to explain in laymen terms MCO, TPA.
Thanks.




MCO = Orlando International Airport -- name comes from its former use as McCoy Air Force Base

TPA - Tampa


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #22457 - Wed Sep 01 2004 08:52 AM

Quote:

Nice, but try to explain in laymen terms MCO, TPA.
Thanks.


Those are the airline identifiesrs of ORLANDO, TAMPA (PIE=FtLauderdae), JAX=JacksonvilleFL, VRB=Vero Beach, MIA-Miami and so on. Most people, having traveled via air recognize their own and destination, but I agree, the others may only be meaningful to other pilots. ORL is Orlando Executive near where I reside but the International 'Orlando' airport is MCO as it used to be McCoy AFB until the city gained control of it.Often, lat/long coordinates are those of near by airports so when you go to your weather page of your local city, you will often be getting the lat/long of a nearby airport serving that city. My MLB (Melbourne) is the regional center around here and MCO and ORL are for Orlando area. DAB, JAX, OCF...these are also about to be affected by Frances.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!

Edited by Ricreig (Wed Sep 01 2004 08:55 AM)


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 959
Loc: parrish,fl
Re:Frances and GOM [Re: danielw]
      #22461 - Wed Sep 01 2004 09:08 AM

Assuming the BAM pakages(BAMM, BAMD, BAMS, LBAR) which are closely linked to the NHC, have been the moseliable in this system then expect the track to shift south and west again.
Actually searching today for the point of convergence between the eastern most influence otf the ULL and the western most subtropical ridge,which is where the storm will go in my opinion, gives credence to the UKMET and NOGAPS solutions.
The key for me today is the progress and transformation of the ULL which is now centered directly south of Florida, and the progress the storm has on pushjing that further west and south. So far the storm has elongated this ULL NE/SW, but there is still a point of vorticity just south of the tip of the peninsula.. As that point continues westward it serves to leave behind a ridge effect.

--------------------
doug


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: MikeC]
      #22462 - Wed Sep 01 2004 09:08 AM

06Z GFS Model Run Nudged to the east a little. This model run has the eye hugging the coast to GA/SC landfall. Doesnt really mean much, but we shall see..

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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trinibaje
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #22463 - Wed Sep 01 2004 09:09 AM

pardon my ignorance but what's going on with the ULL and the other high that's building to the west?

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


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AmateurJohn
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 27
Loc: Highlands County, FL
Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: Dani]
      #22465 - Wed Sep 01 2004 09:19 AM

That's strange, Dani. When I click on the link in my message, the tool pops up but without the 5-day forecast coordinates populated. Try this: go to the site's home page at http://stormcarib.com . Scroll down a little till you see the red bar titled Weather Discussions and Local Reports. Right under the red bar you'll see a link to How Close Can It Get? If you click on that link, you should get the CPA report with the forecast coordinates populated. Just enter your coordinates in the box on the left and click on the Show Me button. Does that work?

--------------------
Lake Placid - 27.3N 81.3W


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re:Frances and GOM [Re: doug]
      #22466 - Wed Sep 01 2004 09:20 AM

Doug, I think you *also* need to look at the vapor loop this morning...it shows a big (probably) ULL to the EAST of Frances. Something is out there and *may* affect the track, but if you are currently in the forecast area, you *hope* the ULL's do move it away from you but are foolish to do more than hope it does. One has to plan for the probabilities, not the possibiliies with this short amount of time remaining. Right now, my tin box is in the middle of a forecast area for CAT III or higher winds in a shade more than 2.7 days. I hope the path forecasted is wrong, but I'll not count on it and thank my mker if it does move away. My prayers then go for those new souls that are affected.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: MikeC]
      #22469 - Wed Sep 01 2004 09:55 AM

Quote:

Hurricane Frances is moving west northwest toward the southern Bahama Islands today. Frances is expected to take a more northwesterly course on Friday toward the central Florida peninsula.

Her winds are currently at 140mph with gusts to 170mph - a Category IV hurricane. While some fluctuation in intensity is likely over the next couple of days, I now expect landfall in the Stuart to Fort Pierce area at 5am on Saturday morning with winds of 145mph gusting to 175mph. [This does not mean people outside this area should let their guard down - mike]

Frances should pass 25 to 30 miles southwest of Melbourne at 4pm Saturday afternoon - winds at that time near the center should be 115mph gusting to 140mph with winds in the Melbourne area and along the beaches at 100mph gusting to 125mph.


(Image thanks to Skeetobite)






As this graphic shows (Thanks again Sketobyte), this is a BIG storm with a wide area of effect. I'd like to remind all in the forecast path that by the time it even GETS to shore, the landfall area will have had storm winds for HOURS. If it comes ashore in the MLB area for instance, ORLANDO will have had Hurricane force winds for quite some time already and TS force for much longer. The LAND FALL TIME is not 'how much time I have to complete preparations', it is many hours earlier....like by Friday evening at the latest. I hope all of the members of this forum realize this, but preach it to your neighbors that are stiing around watching local TV and NOT realizing the time is MUCH less than the landfall times would suggest.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: Ricreig]
      #22472 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:08 AM

Interesting...can you make that graphic for the point before it comes ashore? near WPB/Bahamas area. I would like to see the wind swath down here in the PBC/Broward/Dade area.

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Dani
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: AmateurJohn]
      #22477 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:30 AM

Yes, and unfortunately I just found out that I am only 27 miles from the eye...I was better off when it didn't work...

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FlaRebel
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 59
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: Dani]
      #22478 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:32 AM

The spagetti runs from Hurricane Alley are VERY interesting to say the least. Take a look.

http://www.hurricanealley.net/Storms/06LALLMDL.html


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SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: Dani]
      #22479 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:35 AM

Dani,
Where can I get the coordinates for my exact location? I know I am sweating this thing out here in Deerfield Beach. Good posts guys! Reading this forum helps calm the ANXIETY some! God bless us all!


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: Dani]
      #22480 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:36 AM

Quote:

Yes, and unfortunately I just found out that I am only 27 miles from the eye...I was better off when it didn't work...




Yea, well try 9 miles for me......I think its coming right over my house.

sigh


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alan
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: FlaRebel]
      #22481 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:37 AM

Wow. That spaghetti model certainly tells the tale, doesn't it?

Looking at the water vapor loops, I think this thing might get nudged a little north, more towards the cape than WPB as these models are trending.
It seems as if the upper air just west of Florida is slowly moving north. Not a lot to spare Florida, just enough to push her more north when she gets close.


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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL]
      #22484 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:39 AM

SHe has slowed to crawl. I wonder what the 11am advisory will say????

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 959
Loc: parrish,fl
Re:Frances and GOM [Re: Ricreig]
      #22485 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:39 AM

Hello: the ULL to the east of Frances has no effect what so ever on the future path of the storm. The path will be determined by the point of convergence of the ULL to the west and the ridge...the storm will follow that air flow...all the models point to that...the further the ULL west retrogrades the more likely the convergence will continue south.
I am actually on the central west coast where we DO NOT need this to come. In fact nobody needs this...it will finish the agricultural damage only begun by Charley to say nothing of the potential damage in lives and other property. This is not wish casting! But I am telling my associates that this system can and may cross the state and effect them on Saturday, which IS NOT being broadcast by the media here as they rely solely on the NHC guidance for advice.
To me the NOGAPS and UKMET look all to reasonable to ignore...that's all I am saying here.

--------------------
doug


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL]
      #22486 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:39 AM

Quote:

Dani,
Where can I get the coordinates for my exact location? I know I am sweating this thing out here in Deerfield Beach. Good posts guys! Reading this forum helps calm the ANXIETY some! God bless us all!




Here's a good spot. Uses the geographic center of your Zip Code:

http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/gazetteer


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #22487 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:40 AM

Quote:

Quote:

Yes, and unfortunately I just found out that I am only 27 miles from the eye...I was better off when it didn't work...




Yea, well try 9 miles for me......I think its coming right over my house.

sigh


With an eye 20+miles wide, it is likely that you both will be in the eye, along with thousands of your neighbors to the north & West along the path.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!

Edited by Ricreig (Wed Sep 01 2004 10:41 AM)


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: alan]
      #22489 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:41 AM

I dont know how far the eye will be from my house. The Storm isnt close enough to determine that yet. The track will probably change a lot before we even have to concern ourselves with that. Whats important is preparing for the worst and hoping for the best.

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #22491 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:43 AM

I don't see slowing to a crawl. Where are you seeing this?

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alan
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #22493 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:45 AM

Here's another way to figure it out.
Go to the national weather service website in Melbourne. You click on your area, a forcast comes up complete with the coordinates for your area.


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oscar
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: MikeC]
      #22494 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:47 AM

After watching all the animated models available..., seems like you are on the right track. I hope it hits north of metropolitan areas, especially WPB and surrounding cities. The main concern, since the eye is 20 miles wide, will be the amounts of rain into a 100 miles radio, plus possible tornadoes within the same areas.Congratulations for all of you for this great site.

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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #22495 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:48 AM

Latest vis loop at NASA....can't remember the link. It's on ATWC.

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kelcot
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: alan]
      #22496 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:49 AM

any way someone can post the web address to punch in your Lat and Long to see where the eye is going?

--------------------
Kelly


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
I don't see it either [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #22497 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:50 AM

From what I can tell from the latest IR loops that I have available, Frances has not slowed down in my opinion, and still looks to be on that 280-285 degree heading

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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: kelcot]
      #22498 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:50 AM

Lastest Discussion is up.. Weatherunderground appears to be having issues so I will post it here..

** WTNT41 KNHC 011445 ***
TCDAT1
HURRICANE Frances DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2004

THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 937 MB
A FEW HOURS AGO AND ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK THE HURRICANE LATER
TODAY. Frances CONTINUES TO HAVE AN OUTSTANDING PRESENTATION ON
SATELLITE WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND A DISTINCT EYE. INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 120 KNOTS. AT THIS POINT...THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS INDICATED BY SHIPS
MODEL...BUT MOST LIKELY THE HURRICANE WILL GO THROUGH INTENSITY
FLUCTUATIONS DURING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. NEVERTHERLESS...THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.

THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN...CONSEQUENTLY...
FRANCES REMAINS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT
14 KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF Frances
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST BUT TO WEAKEN. THIS WOULD ALLOW THE
HURRICANE TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND BASICALLY FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE
NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITHIN 3 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WHICH ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST MUCH EARLIER. THIS MAY
REQUIRE A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
THIS EVENING OR EARLY THURSDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 21.7N 69.8W 120 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 22.6N 71.8W 125 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 24.0N 74.0W 125 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 25.0N 76.0W 130 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 26.0N 77.5W 130 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 27.5N 80.0W 125 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 29.0N 82.0W 75 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 06/1200Z 31.6N 84.5W 30 KT...INLAND

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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palmetto
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Eye? [Re: oscar]
      #22499 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:50 AM

Is it undergoing another eyewall replacement? The eye is looking a little raggedy in the last couple of frames.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html


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Ricreig
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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: doug]
      #22500 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:51 AM

Quote:

Hello:
I am actually on the central west coast where we DO NOT need this to come. In fact nobody needs this...it will finish the agricultural damage only begun by Charley to say nothing of the potential damage in lives and other property. This is not wish casting! But I am telling my associates that this system can and may cross the state and effect them on Saturday, which IS NOT being broadcast by the media here as they rely solely on the NHC guidance for advice.



Absolutely. In fact, if the forecast track turns out to be dead-on, it is likely that all but maybe Ft Lauderdale (at the point) will be seeing Hurricane force winds, and for sure, strong TS winds. In your area, low areas will see some flooding in all likelyhood. Your observation of what is *possible* is also right on, a small shift in the actual track could easily put you in danger and IF the models happen to be correct, you could see the eye as easily as any of us in the northern 2/3 of the state. You are right to prepare accordingly.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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kelcot
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Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: Ricreig]
      #22501 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:52 AM

Richard-
I'll be doing a lot more than praying for ya'll! My entire family is in Vero. I'll take a little flooding in Atlanta over a full fource cat IV or cat V hurricane anyday!


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eligrace
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #22502 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:52 AM

as of the 11:00am advisory she is stll moving along at 14 knots

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LI Phil
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Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: eligrace]
      #22504 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:55 AM

>>> Lastest Discussion is up.. Weatherunderground appears to be having issues so I will post it here..

Thanks. Haven't been able to access wunderground tropical page for some time.

BTW, http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html is also an excellent resource...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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andy1tom
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Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: FlaRebel]
      #22505 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:56 AM

looks like we may get some of this yet..still hoping for that north turn (not to wish bad luck on others) but i don't think it gonna happen

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Ricreig
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Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: kelcot]
      #22506 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:58 AM

Quote:

Richard-
I'll be doing a lot more than praying for ya'll! My entire family is in Vero. I'll take a little flooding in Atlanta over a full fource cat IV or cat V hurricane anyday!


...And I will reciprocate. You will be the first to know when it is upon us as you are much nearer the landfall point as it stands. I too will trade rain for the eye of a hurricane any day, even if it means flooding. My point was based on my observations that many times the deaths and damage from tropical systems often come well after the eye is just a bad memory...the rain shield that moves N and E over our northern neighbors. When it comes ashore down there, you be sure and call me on my cellphone and let me know if it was all hype or I should find the most solid wall I can hide behind on the tallest hill 'cause it's not hype!!! :?:

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Dani
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL]
      #22507 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:59 AM

Zipinfo.com

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Wxwatcher2
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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: Ricreig]
      #22508 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:00 AM

11 am track takes the storm in near Sebastian Inlet on Florida's East coast and move it North Westward through downtown Orlando, over Lake Apopka and into the Leesburg
and villages area.

This is a heavily populated section of the state with many reitrement mobile homes etc.

I'm sure that the local forecasts will issue many special statements soon.
However, all precautions need to be taken by anyone
within 100 miles of this path for extended hurricane force winds and torrential rains.


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kelcot
Weather Guru


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Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: Ricreig]
      #22509 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:03 AM

I won't have a clue when makes landfall. I'm up here in Atl. But, I will be heading to Panama City Beach on Thursday (girls weekend!!!!!!) And if this does at much damage as I think it's going to do, I'll be headed down to Vero next week to help out my mom and grandparents.

My advice to you is to build a couple of those walls to hide behind.


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jth
Storm Tracker


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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #22510 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:03 AM

Am I wrong in seeing more and more models taking her over Florida and into the GOM. This couls be a double whammy. Could restrangthen over the Gulf and hit as a major again. Where is Cat 5 rick when we need him?

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Shawn W.
Verified CFHC User


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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: jth]
      #22511 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:08 AM

From the latest discussion:

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF Frances IS FORECAST TO PERSIST BUT TO WEAKEN. THIS WOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

The ridge could weakn faster, or more, than the models anticipate. I doubt a landfall in Northern Georgia / South Carolina, but somewhere in North Florida is still a good possibility.


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kelcot
Weather Guru


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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: jth]
      #22512 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:08 AM

I can't help thinking what you're thinking jth. Didn't Opal do the same type of thing a few years ago?

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javlin
Weather Master


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Re: I agree on one point Frank [Re: Frank P]
      #22513 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:10 AM

Frances does not look though as if she is slowing down at all.The other point maybe just a jog but she has been going due W for almost 2 hrs.We would need another 3or 4 hrs to possibily call this a trend.

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wxman007
Meteorologist


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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: kelcot]
      #22514 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:12 AM

Opal didn't do that....she came from the Bay of Campche...but you have to look no further than Andrew to see that it can happen...and the conditions in the Gulf are more favorable now than they were for Andrew for strenghening...it all depends on how far south it enters the Gulf and how long it stays over water.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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HCW
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re:Frances and GOM [Re: jth]
      #22515 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:13 AM

Quote:

Am I wrong in seeing more and more models taking her over Florida and into the GOM. This couls be a double whammy. Could restrangthen over the Gulf and hit as a major again. Where is Cat 5 rick when we need him?




Nope your not seeing things . This is looking more and more possible each model run.

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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TIGER
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 5
Loc: NEW SMYRNA BEACH, FL
Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #22516 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:13 AM

I'm on the East Coast about 10 miles south of Daytona Beach.

I just got word that people living on 'Beachside' here, East of the Intercoastal Waterway, will be evacuated tomorrow morning and the Causeway Bridges from the Mainland to Beachside are being closed down tomorrow.

For this county to do this at this time is very unusual. They normally let things lie till the last minute. Apparently they must be expecting severe things here, regardless of how the path deviates a little bit, or they would NEVER take this approach so early in the scenario.

Hope this info is useful to some of you out there.

To everybody who will be affected by this hurricane, my prayers are with you all, GOD BLESS!


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jth
Storm Tracker


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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: wxman007]
      #22517 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:15 AM

Jason...Are you starting to have your suspicions as well. This is looking like a setup very similar to Andrew, but a few degrees north. Meaning instead of south of miami and then LA, it could be north of Miami and Pensacola.

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: I agree on one point Frank [Re: javlin]
      #22518 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:19 AM

Hey Jav, my Biloxi neighbor... I don't think its going due west, she has consistently gained latitude over time... this is evident on the IR loops... NHC says 290.... wnw is 292.5... best as I can determine, at the moment its less than 290, but not much less, maybe 285... it doesn't seem like much, but if you extrapolate this distance over 400-500 miles it could have hugh implications... if the system doesn't correct itself and get back more to the 290 heading....

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wxman007
Meteorologist


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Posts: 617
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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: jth]
      #22519 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:23 AM

I've had my suspicsions since Saturday....if the trend holds it will likely be in my forecast package tonight.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: Shawn W.]
      #22520 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:25 AM

Shawn W. -- I think the ridge being stronger/holding much more than the models anticipate is a better bet than it weakening more than they anticipate. There's just nothing out there that looks to be strong enough to weaken it to any large degree -- and by that, I mean turn it north sharply.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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jth
Storm Tracker


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Re: I agree on one point Frank [Re: Frank P]
      #22522 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:26 AM

Actually, Jav is correct. The past few hours have been due west. The long term is still WNW, but there has been a definite jog west recently.

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kelcot
Weather Guru


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Loc: Canton, Ga
Re:Frances and GOM [Re: wxman007]
      #22523 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:26 AM

That's not good news, man. I've got enough stress worring about my family, not to mention worring if it's going to be a double whammy. And don't hurricanes like warm water?

--------------------
Kelly


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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
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Miami bound, maybe [Re: Frank P]
      #22524 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:27 AM

Starting to waver on the Florida Keys, but for sure Miami is as good a shot as any...hurricane is wavering a little to the left...maybe on a wwnw heading. maybe just a glitch. One thing for sure, we have a serious player. Still betting on a GOM entry, though we all keep thinking..."just another 6 hours and I'll get a handle on this"...

If it gets in the gulf ....then the higher SST's will really make for a miserable weekend for someone...

The huge eyewall is impressive...definitely a "trailer trasher"
fascinating...


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jth
Storm Tracker


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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: wxman007]
      #22525 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:28 AM

Would you agree with the set up I described above. It looks more and more likely.

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GaryC
Weather Guru


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Re: I agree on one point Frank [Re: Frank P]
      #22526 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:28 AM

Can someone please explain what the 285 #s are I dont understand if that is west or what.

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: Clark]
      #22527 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:29 AM

Clark, any thought on this thing making the GOM... appears Jason has, what say you??...

btw, I've enjoyed reading your analysis during the week as they related to this storm....

Also thought Scotts take has been pretty good to date as well... of course all that will crash and burn if this thing goes n to SC and NC... and we'll never hear the end of Joe B's greatness.... hehe


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kelcot
Weather Guru


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Re: Miami bound, maybe [Re: rickonboat]
      #22528 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:32 AM

Quote:

. ..."just another 6 hours and I'll get a handle on this"...

...and if I only had winning lottery numbers......

--------------------
Kelly


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LI Phil
User


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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: Frank P]
      #22529 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:33 AM

>>> Can someone please explain what the 285 #s are I dont understand if that is west or what.

Those are degree readings...think like an analog clock. 0 degrees is 12 noon, 90 degrees is 3:00, 180 is 6:00 and 270 is 9:00 (due west). So 285 degrees would be just north of due west direction wise. Hope that helps.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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joepub1
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Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: kelcot]
      #22530 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:33 AM

A couple of things to remember......

This is not exactly how Frances is going to come ashore. This is the best guess for the moment, and will continue to change. Who ever on the east FL coast gets this will know for sure maybe an hour or two before it makes landfall, so it's best to be prepared for the worse. Because of the way it is going to come at the coast, many people are going to feel the affects. And if they miss the forecast, and they do everytime by at least a small margin, it more than likely will be to the right. The Cape, Daytona (again!!) and JAX need to be ready for a really bad day Sunday just in case. It's not going to be a good day for most of us anyway, this thing is huge and forecast to stay a Cat 4. The rainfall amounts projected by the NHC have been small up to now because Frances hasn't run right over somebody, but you could be inside the rainy part of the storm for well over a day this weekend if you're in FL. If anybody comes up with a graphic showing how much rain FL could get, I'd be interested in seeing it.

IMO, I think this is a good forecast, but I also think it's going to get bumped up the coast just a little before it's all over. I do not see the center getting into the gulf at all. My call from 72 hrs out would be Sat afternoon, the Cape to Daytona, Cat 4, and not moving in any hurry.


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javlin
Weather Master


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Re: I agree on one point Frank [Re: jth]
      #22531 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:33 AM

Yea but the last frame the new one just a touch N.I guess she is doing the stair step.It was a good step W though.See how this plays out later tonight.I'm still thinking way S in FL.

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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: Frank P]
      #22532 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:40 AM

Frank P, I've been on the southern end of things for awhile now. There's a long discussion I wrote in the last thread (about 5-6 posts down on pg. 3) early this morning about the storm and don't really see a reason to deviate from that...particularly because that's been my thinking for a couple-few days now.

In essence, I do think it'll make the Gulf, with people from Biloxi to Apalachicola needing to watch it, but it's probably a NW Florida storm once out there, maybe as a cat 1/2. There are some parallels between this storm's track and Erin, although I think the initial landfall will be further south in Florida while the secondary landfall may be slightly to the east. Just my feelings as of now.

I'll probably not look at things again until late tonight, as I'm getting kinda drained and have work I need to get to.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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Frank P
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Compass degrees intro 101 [Re: GaryC]
      #22533 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:42 AM

due north = 0 degrees
due east = 90 degrees
due south = 180 degrees
due west = 270 degrees
Since a circle has 360 degrees, a compass has 360 degrees, too. North is at 0 degrees.

The cardinal points divide the circle into 4 equal parts.
360 divided by 4 = 90, so the cardinal points are 90 degrees apart. Therefore:
North = 0 East = 90 South = 180 West = 270

The intercardinal points mark the midway point between the cardinal points.
90 divided by 2 = 45 Therefore:
NE = 45 SE = 135 SW = 225 NW = 315

Note that the cardinal points are also 90 degrees apart, because there are four of them.

The secondary intercardinal points mark the midway points between the cardinal points and intercardinal points.

* The cardinal and intercardinal points are separated by 45 degrees.
* 45 divided by 2 = 22.5

Therefore:
* NNE = 22.5
* ENE = 67.5
* ESE = 112.5
* SSE = 157.5
* SSW = 202.5
* WSW = 247.5
* WNW = 292.5
* NNW = 337.5


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bobbi
Unregistered




betting against climo and history? [Re: Clark]
      #22534 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:44 AM

Not real happy guys.

I can imagine 3 tracks to get this storm out of here but for now..

3 tracks come to mind and are real visible on wunderground.com...

1926
1945
Donna

Mayfield said in his interview even HE can't remember the last time the coast N of WPB got hit with a major storm.

That is because they usually don't. Climo. Odds based on climo.

IF there was a strong front/dip somewhere I wouldn't mind so much but I'm not a better and these are crappy odds that this storm doesn't hit further south.

In my humble opinon.

Check out the tracks for yourself and think before you reply.

Also.. the ULL is not helping.


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


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Re:Latest Wind Swath [Re: Clark]
      #22535 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:45 AM

Latest wind swath available here:

http://www.skeetobite.com/flhurricane/nhc_adv31.jpg

Now with 3 coordinates-


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Kal
Weather Hobbyist


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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: wxman007]
      #22536 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:45 AM

Here's a detailed discussion about the possibility of a track across FL into the GOM. I don't know anything about the folks who produced this, but it certainly makes for an interesting read. Maybe Jason could comment on it?

The latest signs are not promising at all. Some of the models, like the GFS and CMC are indicating a turn too far to the north, without any support from the 500mb vorticity fields. There are no ML troughs or lows that could turn the system. The UKMET responds to this condition by turning the storm to the west and into the Gulf of Mexico as does NASA and NOGAPS. Second, the trough over Louisiana is farther north than yesterday. These two scenarios are quite grim for Florida. However, what the models are in agreement with and are in touch with reality is that there will be somewhat of a WNW motion due to the weak upper trough. In short, there does not appear to be anything to spar Florida form a landfall. Track guidance is mostly based upon the GFS and the 6Z GFS is unrealistic indicating a SC landfall. While the landfall location is similar near the Palm Beach area although a few tenths to the south of 0900 UTC, the major change is that this forecast now brings the storm into the Gulf of Mexico and indicates a threat to the Florida Panhandle at the end of the period.

Full Article Here


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AphCane04
Unregistered




Re:Frances and GOM [Re: Shawn W.]
      #22537 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:46 AM

Quote:

From the latest discussion:

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF Frances IS FORECAST TO PERSIST BUT TO WEAKEN. THIS WOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

The ridge could weakn faster, or more, than the models anticipate. I doubt a landfall in Northern Georgia / South Carolina, but somewhere in North Florida is still a good possibility.




What mechanism do they think could weaken the ridge as they imply in the discussion?


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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: wxman007]
      #22538 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:47 AM

kinda gathered that last nite by the tone on your 10 forecast.. looks like you maybe getting overtime this weekend

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AgentB
Weather Guru


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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: Clark]
      #22539 - Wed Sep 01 2004 11:52 AM

Frances has been moving north of west, and that's what she was forecast to do. From 11am Saturday to 11am today she's moved 3.7 degrees north and 17.9 degrees west. Last night I looked at the projected path and eyeballed what I though the coordinates for the 8am advisory would be. I estimated them to be 21.4n and 67.8w. This morning at 8am I checked those coordinates and they were officially 21.4n and 69.1w. I still think this storm is moving faster west than some had forecasted it to do, and I personally believe it will continue to do so. Obviously it's going to take some jogs to the north, but I just don't see a drastic turn to the NW taking place. There are some interesting weather features out there now(i.e. trof, high pressure ridge), but I still see the ridge guiding Frances in a general westerly direction and for that motion to continue for quite some time.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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Rabbit
Weather Master


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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: andy1tom]
      #22540 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:03 PM

I am still sure it will turn, but I am unsure how close it will be to the coast

several of the *reliable* models are taking it more to the north--AVN takes it VERY close to Cape Canaveral--about 30-40 miles, but offshore; the CMC takes it well offshore, then turns it back to the west towards Daytona Beach, then about 20 miles offshore, curves it up into Georgia; GFDL takes it NW, getting closer to the coast as it moves north, and taking it inland into N Florida or Georgia

more reason to doubt the NHC forecast is that Frances appears again to be weakening--the eye is much more ragged and appears to have collapsed overnight, much like Isabel last year before the weakening trend; as for more evidence supporting a northward turn is that it is elongating towards the NNW and the western edge of the outflow has flattened and is now shooting straight north, and the ULL is still over the Bahamas showing little or no movement now
Frances
also, it does look like Frances has taken a slight NW jog in the last hour

an odd contrast though is that the NOGAPS takes it NW, then turns it W right into West Palm Beach and up the west coast

is that one a possibility at all?


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zacros
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Re: Eye? [Re: palmetto]
      #22541 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:03 PM

Looking at the IR loop, Frances seems to be looking a lot less symetrical. Is this due to eyewall replacement, interactions with landmasses, or shallower water? Or could it simply be all of the above or none of the above?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html


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Brad
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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: Rabbit]
      #22542 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:08 PM

Yes, the NOGAPS scenario is a possibility. Brian Norcross discussed that yesterday afternoon, the possibility of the storm moving NW or even N and then W just above Palm Beach. Apparently, the NOGAPS picked up on that possibility.

But of course, there are lots of possibilities at this point, and only 1 model (I think) is suggesting that one.


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Wxwatcher2
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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: Rabbit]
      #22543 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:08 PM

I'll stick with the NHC forecast track. It could be either side of the track.
No one should make such an important decision about evacuating etc based on what one or two models say the storm "might" do.
At the end of the day, the NHC has gotten the track right much more often than they have it wrong.

There are too many folks who need to start moving away from the coast very soon.The big problem is where do these people go?


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MIAMIFL
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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: Brad]
      #22544 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:12 PM

SEEMS TO ME THAT NO ONE IS QUITE SURE HOW THIS RIDGE IS GOING TO INTERACT WITH Frances UNTIL IT ACTUALLY OCCURS. ALL THIS TECHNOLOGY AND STILL 400+ MILES FOR ERROR

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Rabbit
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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: Brad]
      #22545 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:12 PM

Yes, the NOGAPS is the only one forecasting that; i brought it up because from experience the AVN, GFDL, CMC, and NOGAPS are all quite accurate, and 3 of those 4 are forecasting the hurricane to miss Florida, although not by much

i think by the time it is east of West Palm Beach, it will probably be about 80 miles offshore by Saturday morning
East of Cape Canaveral by 40 miles by Saturday afternoon
East of Daytona by 15-20 miles by Saturday evening
and making landfall between Jacksonville and South Carolina around 4am to 11 am on Sunday


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GaryC
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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #22546 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:14 PM

Forcast are nice and all and I do support the NHC, but a forcast is just that. A prediction as to where something will go, there is not a clear path yet. Remember charlie was supposed to hit Tampa, and went in further south and east than predicted. Who knows this could go further north or further south. Too much time left in this game.

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John G.
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Re: Eye? [Re: zacros]
      #22547 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:16 PM

Viewing the recent loop, it seems to me that the storm as a whole is on a due westerly course, while the eye has rotated a bit to the northwest of center. This could either indicate some minor shear, or even a bit of drag from the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola, even though far to the south. I think tracking the eye alone could be a bit misleading.

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Rabbit
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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: GaryC]
      #22548 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:16 PM

we will most certainly know by Friday exactly where it will go

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SirCane
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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: GaryC]
      #22549 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:16 PM

I don't believe Frances moves NW until after crossing FL. Some models are showing this possibility....

http://hardcoreweather.com


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Rabbit
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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: SirCane]
      #22550 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:17 PM

so you think S. FL?

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Shawn W.
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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: Rabbit]
      #22551 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:21 PM

I agree with Rabbit. Between North Florida and South Carolina.

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HCW
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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: Shawn W.]
      #22552 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:25 PM

I expect the track to be shifted further west and a little south at 5pm based on the fast west movement today.

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rmbjoe1954
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Controlled Chaos [Re: Shawn W.]
      #22553 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:26 PM

Home Depot in Fort Pierce appears to be orderly today-people are getting prepared in earnest.

1/4 inch ply, 1/2 inch ply is available but there is a waiting line.

I hope Frances just blows away.

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SC Bill
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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: Rabbit]
      #22554 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:27 PM

FRI NIGHT
E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING NE 15 TO 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

SAT
NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT...BUILDING TO 10 TO 15
FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

SUN
HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Above is an excerpt from NWS Charleston coastal forecast as of 9:42 this morning. The forecast for the Beaufort SC area is for "very windy" conditions Sat nite, Sunday.

I am very confused. The NWS local forecast didn't pick up on winds for Gaston until shortly before they were on top of us. I realize "possible" means just that, but is there not more confidence in the NHC forecast track at this hour, than in the last several days, because the models have begun to converge??

As of last night, I was packing to leave the coast (Hilton Head Island), as early as tomorrow am, to avoid the gridlock of mandatory evacuation, which was pretty widely rumored to be coming on Friday. This morning, I adopted more of a "wait and see" thought process. Frankly, moving inland could be putting me closer to the storm, if the NHC track verifies.

Anyone smarter than me have any suggestions, other than moving to Kansas??


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RevUp
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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: Shawn W.]
      #22555 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:29 PM

NHC uses a consensus of their most reliable model data after taking all observational and synoptic data into account. This is almost beginning to sound like a discussion about where people "wish" it to go.

The big question I can't answer is: If and when the authorities tell people to evacuate, where do they advise them to go? We all know how many people evacuated Tampa/St. Pete only to end up in the path of the storm. Bottom line is to be prepared for days and possibly weeks w/o electricity.


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Shawn W.
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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: SC Bill]
      #22556 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:30 PM

Just come to Summerville and take cover with me, this place can take a beating

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andy1tom
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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: Rabbit]
      #22557 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:30 PM

if it keeps moving at 16 by friday morning it will hit land...all the mets are saying the NHC thinks it gonna slow down but hasn't done so yet. remember they also thought it was going to turn toward the north also

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Frank P
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Re: Eye? [Re: John G.]
      #22558 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:31 PM

watching the IR loops Frances is still wobbling along at about 285-290 degrees IMO... no NW turn that I can detect..... still looks to be at the same speed as well...

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Kal
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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: SC Bill]
      #22559 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:31 PM

Kansas has a ton of tornadoes Bill, keep that in mind.

All joking aside, if they do call for an evacuation over your way, get out of dodge ASAP. I don't know if you were there for Floyd, but I-16 clogged to the point of becoming a potential death trap.


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Frank P
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Re: Controlled Chaos [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #22560 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:35 PM

What the heck would anyone use 1/4 inch plywood for with a Cat 4 storm... heck, I live on the beach in Biloxi, I usually use 1/2 plywood to cover all my windows, but if I knew there was a Cat 4 heading my way, I would upgrade and use 5/8 in for all my south facing windows... provided of course its still available...

then again I guess they could put two or three sheets together to cover one window...... that's better than nothing..

Edited by Frank P (Wed Sep 01 2004 12:45 PM)


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doug
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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: andy1tom]
      #22561 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:41 PM

THE ULL WHICH HAD BEEN OVER THE BAHAMAS HAS OPEND UP AND IS NO LONGER A PROBLEM...IT HAS SEEMINGLY CREATED A RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE STATE OF FLORIDA FROM THE GOM...THERE SEEMS TO BE NO VISIBLE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE, IN FACT I THINK IT IS FURTHER WEST NOW THATN EVER,,,THUS Frances HAS NO REASON TO MOVE NORTH THAT I CAN SEE...IF THIS CONTINUES TO VISUALLY REPRESENT ITSELF. I'M WITH JASON KELLEY THAT THIS WILL BLOW ACROSS SO. FLORIDA INTO THE GULF BEFORE TURNING AS THAT IS WHERE THE AIR FLOW SHOWS IT WILL GO.

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andy1tom
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Re: Controlled Chaos [Re: Frank P]
      #22562 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:45 PM

if things go according to the forecast what kind of surge will it produce. yesterday someone said 20-30 foot waves also

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lis
Unregistered




Re:Frances and GOM [Re: doug]
      #22563 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:48 PM

So according to this, do you think Miami/Fort Lauderdale is goign to get the eye?

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Chad
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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: doug]
      #22564 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:48 PM

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

Watching this loop makes me think of a S Fl to GOM path.
I'm really looking forward to the 5 and 11 updates...

--------------------
Chad
28.97
82.48


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HCW
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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: Chad]
      #22565 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:54 PM

Here is an amazing image for you guys that I have broadband

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/misc/040831/040831_g12_vis_2_anim.html

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Frank P
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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: Chad]
      #22566 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:54 PM

what's interesting is that Frances does not have the deep red convection at the end of the loop that it had at the beginning of the loop, this looks to me as a direct affect of the outer bands as interact with mountains of the island below

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andy1tom
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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: lis]
      #22567 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:55 PM

hur. force winds extend 80 miles out and t/s winds 180 so even if it goes north of miami they are going to get at least tropical storm winds.

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meto
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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: Rabbit]
      #22568 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:56 PM

the ULL is near the keys not in the bahamas, and moving sw. and Frances is moving just n. of due west.and most models are taking it into cent. fla. or near palm beach.

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meto
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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: Rabbit]
      #22569 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:56 PM

the ULL is near the keys not in the bahamas, and moving sw. and Frances is moving just n. of due west.and most models are taking it into cent. fla. or near palm beach.

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rmbjoe1954
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Controlled Chaos [Re: andy1tom]
      #22570 - Wed Sep 01 2004 12:57 PM

I think the Weather Channel estimated up to 20.

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________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Kroemerk
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Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: MikeC]
      #22571 - Wed Sep 01 2004 01:00 PM

EEEK! I live 5 miles straight north of MCO! We really dodged the bullet last time - our power was miraculously only out for like 6 hours. Doesn;t look like we will be so lucky this time. Any guesses about how fast of winds I will see? Or do I not REALLY want to know

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C.J.inNaples
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: Kroemerk]
      #22572 - Wed Sep 01 2004 01:05 PM

I live in Naples, just south of where Chuck hit. So far its not looking too good for anyone in south FL. Whats the chance this thing will pull another Andrew?

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Colleen A.
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Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: Kroemerk]
      #22573 - Wed Sep 01 2004 01:10 PM

Just was able to get back online. We had a heck of a storm here last night that lasted 4 hours! Knocked out my cable modem, so I had to go swap it out. Anyway, I'm able to get Channel 9 in Orlando (I don't know why since I'm in Lakeland) and they are showing 100mph winds in Orlando. Now, I'm 45 miles to Orlando-Disney World. What I'm wondering is what to expect. If I'm reading Skeeto's windfield map correctly, I'm in those hurricane force winds. My husband just called and said he can get a generator, and for the first time in my life, I didn't know what to tell him to do.

Any ideas?

--------------------
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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: C.J.inNaples]
      #22574 - Wed Sep 01 2004 01:10 PM

For what its worth, I'm not seeing any northward component happening, the upper level low falling apart ahead of it is the main reason. If the tracks are wrong it's probably biased to the right. So the Gulf scenario is a higher probability than the Carolinas at the moment, but by no means a sure thing.

If the storms slows up sooner then the movement to the right would be more likely.


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Ed in Va
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Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: C.J.inNaples]
      #22575 - Wed Sep 01 2004 01:11 PM

Don't know if this has been posted...the 12Z GFS, which shows a SC landfall on Tuesday. Anybody give this any credence?

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready-bin/animation.pl?id=GFS&mdl=gfsx&file=tpptmslp

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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fredwx
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: MikeC]
      #22576 - Wed Sep 01 2004 01:13 PM

Frances continues to approach the Florida East Coast. Frances is a larger storm than Charley and has the potential of greater damage when it makes landfall.

FORECAST VALID Saturday 0800 EDT 26.0N 77.5W
MAX WIND 130 KT (150 MPH) ...GUSTS 160 KT (185 MPH)
Hurricane Winds could extend outward 80 miles to the NE of the center and 60 miles to the SW of the center.
Damaging winds of over 55 mph could extend outward 140 miles to the NE and 105 miles to the SW
Tropical Storm force winds (39mph or more) could extend outward up to 200 miles to the NE and 130 miles to the SW.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604W5+GIF/011503W5.gif


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raeolight
Unregistered




Re:Frances and GOM [Re: SC Bill]
      #22577 - Wed Sep 01 2004 01:14 PM

Hey Bill,
My first post so I hope I am doing this right...

Next door in Bluffton here...I checked the coordinates of Bluffton on the site listed previously here, and it shows us about 180 miles away from the eye at its closest point. I know evacuation can be a madhouse here, but for now we are waiting it out.

Take care!


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Frank P
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Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: Ed in Va]
      #22578 - Wed Sep 01 2004 01:16 PM

This was posted on Storm2K by a professional met relative to the new GFS run..... for what its worth.....

""First off, the new GFS is too far north in the short term. By 00Z tonight, it has Frances at around 22.9n 71.3w. That means it would have to gain a full degree latitude from now until 00Z.... not goint to happen with a 280-285 heading.

Secondly, I remain baffled at the GFS first moving the storm north INTO a 589-590 dm ridge. Synoptically, it digs the west coast trough which in turn develops the ridge over the east... with the ridge axis to the west of Frances. This tells me the storm continues WNW.

Third, it stalls the storm off of the east coast...waits for the west coast trough to progress east, then lifts it into GA/SC. I think the stalling concept is absurd given the strength and orientation of the ridge.

Those are my thoughts as to why the 12Z GFS is yet again out to lunch."""

I don't think he gives it much credit...


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Colleen A.
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Frances' Eye [Re: Frank P]
      #22579 - Wed Sep 01 2004 01:17 PM

The Chief Met in Orlando said that we will see fluctuations in the eye either due to strengthening, repositioning of the eyewall, etc. But I think you're right, too.

Here's something else he said: that this storm is the size of TEXAS and the windfield (not the winds themselves) span an area from the Keys to Atlanta. If that gives anyone food for thought, take it with some Alza Celtzer. We have sitting projectiles all over the place, from Tampa to Daytona. They still haven't picked up the debris from Charley, and Orlando is in fast-track mode trying to do this. They also said that watches/warnings would probably go up tonight because of the amount of people they will have to evacuate and that voluntary evacuations of special needs people will probably start in the morning on the east coast. We still have a lot of people from FEMA here, so that is an inhibiting factor for hotel reservations. I mean, where the heck are all these people going to go?
What a nightmare.

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Ed geary
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: fredwx]
      #22580 - Wed Sep 01 2004 01:19 PM

Colleen, I work in Orlando, just north of Colonial Drive on John Young Parkway.

Sky is blue, winds are calm and it's actually pretty nice!

Ed G
Clermont


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Colleen A.
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Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: Ed in Va]
      #22581 - Wed Sep 01 2004 01:24 PM

I may be able to address that one model: at 10:30am, they were doing an EM conference in Seminole County. After that, they had the met on in Orlando. He said that all but one model (as of today) have come into line with a se central Florida landfall, except for one that takes it up to S. Carolina. He said that was the only one out of 25 models to do that, so I wouldn't put much credence in it.

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scottsvb1
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Re: Frances' Eye [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22582 - Wed Sep 01 2004 01:27 PM

Frank do you know where you saw it posted that the met said that? Any link? Ty. Also Mike when you can, can you see if you can get the links up for the local NWS updates. I see the link says error. TY.
I will post a new forcast on Frances in a hour or so.

scottsvb


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raeolight
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: Ed in Va]
      #22583 - Wed Sep 01 2004 01:27 PM

ok now for my second post...
as soon as I had posted to Bill I came back and read your post and followed the link, so I ask also of anyone within reading distance: how much credence is there to this scenario?
Thanks!


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Frank P
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Yo Scott [Re: scottsvb1]
      #22584 - Wed Sep 01 2004 01:31 PM

It was Air Force Met....

the topic was 12Z another head scratcher...


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rjp
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Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22585 - Wed Sep 01 2004 01:31 PM

Obviously this is a different storm, but didn't most of the models for Charley have it heading into Tampa, where as just one had it going further south, which it ended up doing? Could see something like that again here, possibly, but these are two different storms.

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Roberta
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Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: MikeC]
      #22586 - Wed Sep 01 2004 01:32 PM

I've been reading all the discussions here for a couple of days and sincerely THANK the "hurricane experts" here for their sensible and knowledgeable analysis of this looming monster storm!

I have a question (just SLIGHTLY nervous now - BIGTIME! )
We live in Sebastion, FL - about 20 miles south of MLB. We are about 6 miles inland in a frame house with concrete foundation, but in a neighborhood with LOTS of big pine trees. Our landlord cut down the big pine in our front yard yesterday. I am disabled - nearly bedridden), but my hubby is healthy, along with our little chihuahua.
What are your ideas about us evacuating? Should we, and WHERE in the world should we go? (from the GREAT graphics posted, it looks like most ALL of FL will be affected by those high winds!) We have bought supplies - should we just get boarded up and stay in our safest room...or get on the road?
If the storm comes in as shown and predicted, we here in the Sebastian and MLB area will be under the gun for quite a few hours (from early Sat. a.m. to at least LATE Sat. nite or early Sunday morning).
We went thru the storms 10 yrs. ago in Pensacola (Erin and Opal) and that was unforgettable...Erin was supposedly a Cat I, but she blew the roof off our motel - we high-tailed it on Opal to Birmingham and ended up right in her path and spent the night in the laundry room of a KOA campground, LOL! Opal WAS a Cat 5 at the time we got mandatory evac orders, and the bad weather and winds arrived about 16 hrs. before she hit, so packing up the car and RV was pretty rough...just saying this to CONFIRM that the bad weather from Frances WILL arrive way ahead of her, so anyone affected, PLEASE get started and complete your plans and preparations NOW!

So, PLEASE...will be grateful for any advice that the knowledgeable folks here can give us!
Thank you in advance for your help!

Roberta in Sebastian, FL


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raeolight
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: Frank P]
      #22587 - Wed Sep 01 2004 01:32 PM

Thank you for the reponse and to anyone else who has done so!

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Colleen A.
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Roberta [Re: Roberta]
      #22588 - Wed Sep 01 2004 01:39 PM

Welcome, Roberta. My best advice to you is this: if they tell you to leave, leave. Even if you aren't told to leave, but don't feel comfortable since you are disabled, listen to your gut and go. They will be having a special needs evacuation in the morning. Better to be safe than sorry. My prayers and best wishes are with you and your husband. Also...I did hear about a special "pet shelter" in Seminole County. If you can get Channel 9 out of Orlando, tune in, they have lots of information. Good luck and God bless.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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alan
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Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: Roberta]
      #22589 - Wed Sep 01 2004 01:42 PM

Roberta,

I know your area well and wish that it misses one of my favorite places in the state.

That said, Sebastian is no place to be if this storm hits where it is supposed to. It's pretty flat and the winds there will be worse than either of the storms you described.

My advise would be to 1. either make a hotel reservation in Orlando and get there no later than Friday morning or 2. figure out where the nearest shelter is and be prepared to ride it out in the shelter.

The hotels in Orlando, especially the ones built in the last decade, are designed for strong winds and are going to be much safer than the area around Sebastian.

Harris Rosen, which owns two Quality Inns on International Drive, a Rodeway and a couple of others, will be offering discounts to those who have to evacuate. 407-996-1600 is one of his hotels.

Hope that helps


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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: alan]
      #22590 - Wed Sep 01 2004 01:50 PM

Is the convection on the Wane?? She doesn't look good right now. Is this dry air entrainment??? Maybe this will save the day.....come on......weaken to a cat 2....that I can live with. BTW, traffic heading from Brevard west to tampa is 8 hours, with little gas to be had>>>

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obshaz
Unregistered




Re:Frances and GOM [Re: AphCane04]
      #22591 - Wed Sep 01 2004 01:52 PM

We live in the Ormond Beach area and are torn between leaving and staying. Can anyone give me a little advice?

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alan
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Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: alan]
      #22592 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:01 PM

Just heard from our neighbors, a local engineering firm, said they did a storm surge analysis for Brevard County. The results were that with a category one hurricane directly hitting the county, most places would experience a storm surge all the way to Interstate 95.

They didn't do it for anything more than a Cat. 1


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Colleen A.
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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: obshaz]
      #22593 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:03 PM

By all means...if they tell you to leave, DO IT. Especially if they ask you for a next of kin if you decide not to leave. Anyone near the beach will need to leave if you are going to be in any danger. Once they close the bridges, you're stuck.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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schmoo
Unregistered




Re:Frances and GOM [Re: obshaz]
      #22594 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:04 PM

Is there still any chance of this monster pulling an Andrew and heading anywhere near New Orleans.

We are a giant bowl as you know


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Colleen A.
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Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #22595 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:04 PM

Check it again, Steve. It's not on the wane. I'm still trying to find out an answer as to whether or not to get that generator. Any ideas? Anyone?

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Wxwatcher2
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Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: alan]
      #22596 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:05 PM

Roberta in Sebastian.
Given the facts as we know them now;
1. You are in the bulls eye of where the NHC expects this storm to come ashore with 145 plus MPH winds
2. You are in a frame house.
3. Lots of trees
4.. You are not too far from the ocean.

my advice is to Evacuate to a sturdy hotel inland or go north toward Jacksonville or beyond.


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anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: Ed in Va]
      #22597 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:09 PM

Just strictly my opinion, but it seems that the AVN has had a leftward bias in this season, and others. Living in NJ, it seems the tropical systems that have affected us this year ended up farther east than progged. Of course, the trend is your friend, but I would note that the AVN was also the first model to show a farther right track the other day. Then there's the matter of persistence forecasting. It seems the favored track this year is an east coast track (give or take). While this doesn't mean that it will happen again, I respect it.
My personal opinion is that the actual track could end up to the right of where it is now. FWIW, the ETA seems to be all over the place. You being in Va., I am sure you don't even want to see drizzle. The slowing or stalling is going to make it an even tougher forecast. The best hope there is that the interaction of its large circulation with land will weaken it, but the moisture will still be there.


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andy1tom
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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: obshaz]
      #22598 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:09 PM

if you do leave let someone know that you are and where you are going.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: andy1tom]
      #22599 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:22 PM

Apologies about the site problems, most of the interactive sites, like this one and storm2k etc are having difficulties do to just the sheer amount of traffic. I'm working on reducing the downtime, and we're monitoring it. If the site goes down it should be back up momentarily. I'm narrowing down the causes of it and hopefully will get rid of it entirely during the event.

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Roberta
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Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: alan]
      #22600 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:24 PM

Dear Alan and Colleen,

Thank you sooo very much for your advice and help...it sounds like we better get packed, especially after Alans' friend's engineering firm did that storm surge study for MLB! YIKES!!
One more thing...would it make any sense to head SW towards Naples??
It doesn't look like Orlando is going to be a picnic, either...but I AM going to call that hotel that you gave me, Alan. A shelter is out, since I will need a bed, plus the little dog, who is like our child, LOL!
My daughter is in Okeechobee and just got a mandatory evacuation order, so she headed for a shelter.
Bless you all...I will be praying for everyone's safety...this storm is HUGE...just heard that it is 400 nm wide and will affect most all of FL.
Let me know what you think about Naples...or how about NC?

In All Gratitude,
Roberta in Sebastian


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Floridacane
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Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: Roberta]
      #22601 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:30 PM

I live in Palm Bay, about 11 miles inland. I'm staying, just boarded up the house and am fully stocked. Also for Brevard county residents, schools are closed Thursday and Friday.

--------------------
What's brewin' everyone?
Lori


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re:Frances and GOM [Re: andy1tom]
      #22602 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:30 PM

Very tough forcast to give especialy after 72 hours. First with the models we seem them change from run to run so dont accept a path a model shows cause it might change the next run. Can it be right? Of course but wait to see if the model initalizes that positon right to start, then see if it has the last 3-4 runs and shows the same path. If its been on track then that run gets favored but not set in stone. CMC has generally been off to the N of the current track. GFS has been just a tad to the NE over the last 24 hours as is most of the guidance. The tropical model suites have shifted every time the GFS does and the ETA has been 12 hours behind the GFS following tracks it has 12 hours earlier. NOGAPS and the GFDL have performed well during the first 24 hours but then diverage with the GFDL more N and the NOGAPS more WNW-NW motion,both bring Frances on a decent clip that its going now. Difference between the 2 after 24 hours is the NOGAPS been right while the GFDL nudes each run alittle to the sw due to it having to initialize the next run more sw at the start. The UKMET has adjust more NE but was too far N in its ooz run last night to today.
Overall its a clear path to the WNW up to ner Grand Bahama Island. Then the tricky part comes, most models show eigther a drift to the W or a 24 hour turn to just N of W making landfall. Since this could make landfall as early as Sat morning that would be near Boca Raton. But also it could stay up and parrelle the coast near Melbourne then move NNW and head up to Hilton Head by Sunday night or Monday morning. Since that is after 72 hours i wont give that my offical forcast but since I have to go out on a limb here I would agree with the current path with most models up to Grand Bahama island then move towards the coast near Jupitar or Stuart florida on Saturday evening. I think it might go onshore Sat night near there but its at the 84-96 hour period from now. This is in between the NOGAPS and Ukmet solutions. This wont be a Andrew system path but like Clark on here said,, more like eigther a Floyd (but alot closer) or Erin from 1995 and move slowly onshore wnw late Sat evening or night. Winds near Cat 4. Watch might go up by 11pm tonight, if not earlier from I would say Dade county up thru Palm beach. scottsvb ( will post more from time to time)


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alan
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Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: Roberta]
      #22603 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:31 PM

Here's another number for you.
The Orlando Convention & Visitors Bureau has developed a hotel hot line to assist those with evacuation needs.
The number is 407-354-5555. It's running until 11 p.m. tonight. Re-opening at 7 a.m. tomorrow and staying open until all the rooms are full or weather shuts it down.


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re:Frances and GOM [Re: scottsvb1]
      #22604 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:37 PM

sorry about spelling. Lack of sleep.

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mikeG
Unregistered




Re: recon [Re: Roberta]
      #22605 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:37 PM

P. AF966 1306A Frances OB 06
MAX FL WIND 105 KT SE QUAD 1712Z. INNER EYEWALL OPEN SE-SW.
GOOD RADAR PRESENTATION OF OUTER WALL

from last vortex i got....just trying to figureout whats going on....did dry air sneak in? saw max fl winds of 120...


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wxman007
Meteorologist


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Re: recon [Re: mikeG]
      #22606 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:48 PM

Eyewall replacement cycle is underway....

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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HCW
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Re: recon [Re: mikeG]
      #22607 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:48 PM

So can we expect watches for Florida at 5am tomorrow ?

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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TROY
Unregistered




Re: recon [Re: mikeG]
      #22608 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:49 PM

I think that may be the south part of the eyewall...isnt that typically less powerful

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anany
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: alan]
      #22609 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:52 PM

NOT TRUE.

Don't spread rumours!

Cat 1 does not send storm surge to I-95!

sc


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Ormond Suzie
Weather Watcher


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Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: Floridacane]
      #22610 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:57 PM

For Volusia County residents: community college and public schools are closed Thursday and Friday.

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alan
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Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning *DELETED* [Re: anany]
      #22611 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:57 PM

Post deleted by alan

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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Orange, Volusia, Seminole Counties [Re: alan]
      #22612 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:59 PM

School Closed Friday for Orange and Seminole County Schools. Volusia County Schools closed Thursday and Friday..

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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mikeG
Unregistered




Re: recon [Re: TROY]
      #22613 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:59 PM

does anyon know if there is access the drifting buoy?

saw this in 2pm adv.
A DRIFTING BUOY
NEAR THE CORE OF Frances REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 967 MB...
28.56 INCHES.


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Colleen A.
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Re: recon [Re: HCW]
      #22614 - Wed Sep 01 2004 02:59 PM

No, I think you can expect them at 5pm tonight due to the amount of people that will have to evacuate.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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alan
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Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: anany]
      #22615 - Wed Sep 01 2004 03:03 PM

Before saying something isn't true, please explain how you know it not to be true?

I said where I got my information about storm surge. I'm just relaying information from someone who did the study.


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LI Phil
User


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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Florida Hurricane Storm Surge Atlas [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22616 - Wed Sep 01 2004 03:04 PM

For people interested in storm surge, click here.

This one happens to be for MLB, but you can get any county.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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mikeG
Unregistered




Re: recon now 3 planes out [Re: mikeG]
      #22617 - Wed Sep 01 2004 03:05 PM

URNT11 KNHC 011849
97779 18494 40296 85600 75900 19012 70762 /5759
RMK AF984 1506A Frances OB 01


noaa3 is also out flying
RMK AF966 1306A Frances OB 12 is also out....
well see if she has an eye repla. going on and if it will make cat 5 or not!


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John C
Unregistered




Re:Storm Surge Brevard County FL [Re: alan]
      #22618 - Wed Sep 01 2004 03:07 PM

Here is the storm surge atlas from NOAA for brevard county and it is not a CAT 1 a Cat5 don't even reach I-95 in most places.

Link to storm surge atlas


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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist


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Posts: 90
Bahamas under the gun for a 36 hour nightmare, starting now [Re: mikeG]
      #22619 - Wed Sep 01 2004 03:09 PM

Hurricane is heading wwnw, at least to me, and is on the south side of the projected path. Wouldn't suprise me to see a REAL shift with the models more to the left. However, the hurricane center and experts are VERY good....amazing...
Still think it will hit the Miami Hurricanes...

Maybe they will rename the team "frances"


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Colleen A.
Moderator


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Palm Beach County [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22620 - Wed Sep 01 2004 03:09 PM

This was just breaking news on TB's BayNews9:

*MANDATORY EVACUATIONS FOR PALM BEACH COUNTY BEGIN TOMORROW***

I would imagine that HWatches will go up at 5pm tonight if this is what we're looking at right now.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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john03
Unregistered




Re: fla [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22621 - Wed Sep 01 2004 03:16 PM

MIAMI (AP) Thousands of Floridians are being advised to flee ahead of Hurricane Frances.

Just weeks after Hurricane Charley devastated parts of the state, another Category 4 hurricane is bearing down on Florida. A hit from Frances would make it the worst double hurricane strike on one state in at least a century.

Martin County plans to urge up to 75-hundred residents to evacuate low-lying areas starting at noon tomorrow. More evacuation orders are likely along Florida's East Coast.

NASA says the Kennedy Space Center at Cape Canaveral will be closed tomorrow and Friday to allow workers time to board up their homes and evacuate if necessary.

National Hurricane Center director Max Mayfield says he can't emphasize enough how powerful Frances is. He says he doesn't see any sign of weakening.


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alan
Weather Hobbyist


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Re:Storm Surge Brevard County FL [Re: ]
      #22622 - Wed Sep 01 2004 03:21 PM

Great information and I will defer to those web sites.

I should have checked more info before posting something like that.

Sorry.


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Redbird
Unregistered




Re:Storm Surge Brevard County FL [Re: alan]
      #22623 - Wed Sep 01 2004 03:26 PM

I know you were warning us things we had not thought of. It will be a mess one or another.

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Pam in Vero
Unregistered




Re: Palm Beach County [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22624 - Wed Sep 01 2004 03:29 PM

This guy is good he has been forcasting in this area for a long time. He was around even as far back as Andrew. You can get regular updates from him at IRCES.com if you sign up he will email you with the latest including maps. The joke around here is "when he takes his tie off it's serious" Well he is on our local county station right now with his tie off.




-----Original Message-----
From: Nate McCollum
Sent: Wednesday, September 01, 2004 1:49 PM
To: Weather Alerts
Subject: Prepare Now For Hurricane Frances

The time of tracking Hurricane Frances is over and the time for preparing has started. Hurricane Frances will be making landfall somewhere along the east coast on Saturday. The current wind field timing will be as follows:

Saturday-3-am tropical storm winds begin
Saturday-5-am-high end tropical storm force winds-hurricane force winds
Saturday8am-2:00pm-Most intense winds of this system will occur
Saturday 2:00pm -7:pm-Winds will reduce.

This is the best time line at this time. This will change as the forecast changes. It is unknown if we will have the most intense winds, but we need to plan for this. The ridge remains in place and there is no doubt in my mind that we will have hurricane force winds.

Shelters will be opened at noon tomorrow, but evacuation out of Florida may be the better answer. Mandatory evacuations for the barrier island and mobile homes will occur tomorrow beginning at noon. Limited shelters are available because of the intense winds. We will have routes for evacuation tomorrow. Remember, the entire east coast of Florida is going to evacuate because of this storm. School is closed Thursday and Friday. A list of shelters will be available in the morning.

This is a serious situation. If this system makes landfall near Indian River County, it will be the strongest hurricane in our area in history. If you stay at home, make sure your structure is safe for the most intense winds.

This is a serious situation and everyone should be prepared for an extreme event.

Nathan McCollum
Indian River County Emergency Management


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obshaz
Unregistered




Re:Frances and GOM [Re: andy1tom]
      #22625 - Wed Sep 01 2004 03:31 PM

We will definitely tell family if we go and we will go if they tell us to get out. We are well inland so we don't have to depend on bridges and we have a straight shot to 95 so we're okay that way. We're just not sure whether we should stay and ride it out or leave.

We're well prepared, even got an axe, chainsaw, plenty of propane and canned food. Got 9 gas tanks and we're ready to go so ... what kind of winds are we looking at for the ob area?

Thanks!


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: obshaz]
      #22626 - Wed Sep 01 2004 03:36 PM

Note: I reduced the number of posts showed per page to help with bandwidth.

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mikeG
Unregistered




Re: not much different [Re: obshaz]
      #22627 - Wed Sep 01 2004 03:37 PM

URNT12 KNHC 011859
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/1859Z
B. 21 DEG 53 MIN N
70 DEG 34 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2565 M
D. 80 KT
E. 244 DEG 019 NM
F. 333 DEG 111 KT
G. 245 DEG 017 NM
H. 941 MB
I. 9 C/ 3110 M
J. 17 C/ 3104 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C32
N. 12345/7
O. .1/1 NM
P. AF966 1306A Frances OB 13
MAX FL WIND 120 KT NW QUAD 1729Z.

****i think 32 is the biggest yet...this would go with a eye replac... durning noon today....


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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re:Frances and GOM [Re: obshaz]
      #22628 - Wed Sep 01 2004 03:37 PM

I know Max Mayfield is very good and is emphasizing the power of the hurricane, but IR images (nd Dvorak) show the convection has weakened considerably since this morning, and she's looking rather ragged. Is this really part of the EWR, or lack of SW inflow due to her being north of the DR....or just plain weakening???

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alan
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 95
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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #22629 - Wed Sep 01 2004 03:48 PM

It also looks like the storm is becoming elongating with a north/south look.
That usually signals a turn, but I would like to know what others think.
Look at the Water Vapor Loop from the front page.


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AgentB
Weather Guru


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Posts: 185
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re:Frances and GOM [Re: alan]
      #22630 - Wed Sep 01 2004 03:54 PM

Also heard on the radio, evacuation for the barrier islands in Brevard County(Merritt Island, etc.) I believe they said tomorrow at 2pm.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: alan]
      #22631 - Wed Sep 01 2004 03:55 PM

Looks to still be wobbling along at around 285-290 degrees or so, still basically wnw, with a couple wobbles to the wnw then nw then w.. I would say it is still averaging out to be a WNW overall motion... from what I can tell on the IR loop, speed looks about the same as well... I do see the enlongation that you mentioned but I do not see a NW component as such... not yet at least

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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Coordinate locator [Re: alan]
      #22632 - Wed Sep 01 2004 03:57 PM

Earlier in the day a user wanted a source to determine their coordinates. We have created a cool tool for this purpose. Search over 43,000 Zip Codes. Returns the geographic center of any Zip Code.

Find it here:
SkeetoBite.com


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SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL
Unregistered




Re: Coordinate locator [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #22633 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:01 PM

Thanks Skeeto.......This happy gal is getting very nervous....going home to put up shutters tonight...getting scared down here at the north end of east broward county.
God bless us all


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javlin
Weather Master


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Re:Frances and GOM [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #22634 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:01 PM

I think she still looking healthy with still good outflow on the WV imagine.I would say that some eyewall replacment this afternoon but the shape seems to be changing some .The storm regaining her shape the ULL to the W is all but gone.She looks thou as if this will most likely keep moving for awhile at 280.The LBAR is on track wiyh this one and so is the NHC.Frances falls on the lowest side of the NHC track.

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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: not much different [Re: mikeG]
      #22635 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:10 PM

the 2 pm advisory had it at
AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE Frances WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.4 WEST
So what gives?? is it backing up?


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Martha
Unregistered




Lee County - Cape Coral? [Re: javlin]
      #22636 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:10 PM

I'm new to Florida and I'm still trying to recover from Charley. Should I be worried about Frances? I really don't know a thing about hurricanes so my instinct is to freak. Any information/advice anyone could offer in leyman's terms would be great. Thanks

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Ricreig
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Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: Colleen A.]
      #22637 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:16 PM

Quote:

Check it again, Steve. It's not on the wane. I'm still trying to find out an answer as to whether or not to get that generator. Any ideas? Anyone?


Frankly, I'd get it, now, not later. Even if you evac, when you get back it could be days or weeks before power is available....if it misses you, you have one for those times 'normal' storms hit... Problem: Probably none are available anywhere now, but if you get lucky, DO IT!

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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wxman007
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General Thoughts... [Re: javlin]
      #22638 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:16 PM

Frances is not weakening in any significant amount...the eyewall replacement cycle disrupted her briefly, but the last few images she seems to be gathering herself back together. I see the pinching or elongation, and I think that the west side is "feeling" the remnants of that ULL...

The last frame or two of the vis's seem to imply a slightly more N jog, but this could be due to the refomation cycle...we need a few more frames of imagery to know if this is the beginning of a NW turn...if this is not the beginning of the turn, it needs to start really soon to get the more northerly tracks to verify.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Lindsey
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Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: MikeC]
      #22639 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:21 PM

Osceola County Schools closed on friday

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AgentB
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Re: not much different [Re: andy1tom]
      #22640 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:21 PM

Quote:

the 2 pm advisory had it at
AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE Frances WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.4 WEST
So what gives?? is it backing up?




Not sure what you mean by "backing up". The previous coordinates, at 11AM, were 21.7n/69.8w. Definitely still moving forward.

--------------------
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Ricreig
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Re: Lee County - Cape Coral? [Re: Martha]
      #22641 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:21 PM

Quote:

I'm new to Florida and I'm still trying to recover from Charley. Should I be worried about Frances? I really don't know a thing about hurricanes so my instinct is to freak. Any information/advice anyone could offer in leyman's terms would be great. Thanks


Freak, then calm down and evaluate your situation. My suggestion, Leave for Savannah tonight, head for points west or north if it turns toward Savannah. I'm serious, if you do not have to be in Central or S Central Florida, leave while the leaving is good. If you can't leave or you live in a fort or are 'near the edge', take all of the reccommended precautions, get and store drinking water, batteries, candles, matches, clothes and blankets if you have to abandon (get them in the car...during the storm is a bad time for packing)get your stuff ready. Good luck.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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jth
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Re: General Thoughts... [Re: wxman007]
      #22642 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:21 PM

If that is a north turn, then it is the most abrupt I have ever seen. The last few frames are a due north motion. Must be a jog.

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andy1tom
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Re: General Thoughts... [Re: wxman007]
      #22644 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:22 PM

are you refering to the ones that take it to the carolinas??

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WXMAN RICHIE
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Palm Beach County [Re: Martha]
      #22646 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:23 PM

Local update. Schools have a half day tomorrow and closed Friday. Evacuations start in the a.m along the coast. WPB tv stations going to 24/7 broadcasting. My neighborhood has almost half the homes shuttered already. Shelters open at 2 p.m tomorrow. Just saw a line of 72 people getting propane. Yes, I actuallly counted them, just had to. Winds have gone NE and have gusted to 26 mph in the last hour. The overall circulation of the storm system has even started to create some shower formation off the coast of the Palm Beaches. This is an indirect effect. Looks like this area could take a huge hit if the track keeps moving south and west. Watches to come soon.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

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jth
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Re: General Thoughts... [Re: jth]
      #22647 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:31 PM

May be the reformation and apparent shrinking of the eye that gives the appearance of a north movement. We will se in a few more frames. I can't get an updated satelite.

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Shawn W.
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Re: General Thoughts... [Re: jth]
      #22648 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:33 PM

I see what you mean.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

The last 3 frames it seems to be going due NW, not WNW.


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andy1tom
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Re: not much different [Re: AgentB]
      #22649 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:33 PM

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/1859Z
B. 21 DEG 53 MIN N
70 DEG 34 MIN W
lat is .3 south (21.8)
lon is.1 east (70.4)
vortex messagewas 59 minutes after the advisory. so it would appear that is is moving se?? am i not understanding the vortex or the time right?


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wxman007
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Re: General Thoughts... [Re: andy1tom]
      #22650 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:37 PM

yep...should the northern turn not begin soon, the Carolina solutions look pretty suspect.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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jth
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Re: not much different [Re: andy1tom]
      #22651 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:37 PM

The Vortex uses a different kind of system. There is a formula to use to extrapolate where the center is from the vortex message. From what you gave, it would be around where they said in the advisory.

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fred08
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Re: General Thoughts... [Re: jth]
      #22652 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:37 PM

for some odd reason i think there will be a more west turn in less 48-56 hrs and a slow down in 36hrs or less...if it passes south of Long island , bhm....think we may see GOM entrance....possble panhandle landfall then..... the ULL to west appears to be gone.....trough over gulf coast is weak and looks to be lifting some what due north.... if lived south of I-4....i would leave.....and head north towards macon, ga..... this strom can be twice as bad as Charley...just do to overall SIZE of storm... Charley didn't have time to grow, before land impact...plus there was a strong front over NW fl panhadle pushing ene......this time we have a strong high off near bermuda and it's not giving in...and a weak front

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LI Phil
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Northward turn? [Re: jth]
      #22653 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:39 PM

Satellite

You be the judge..

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Doombot!
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5PM Update [Re: fred08]
      #22655 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:43 PM

5PM update has it moving more WNW across FL.

****
Hurricane Frances Forecast/Advisory Number 32


Statement as of 21:00Z on September 01, 2004



a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the southeast and central
Bahamas and for the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Hurricane Watch remains is in effect the northwest Bahamas.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A
Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

At 5 PM AST...2100z...the Tropical Storm Warning for the north coast
of the Dominican Republic has been discontinued.

A Hurricane Watch will likely be issued for portions of the Florida
East Coast tonight.

Hurricane center located near 22.0n 71.0w at 01/2100z
position accurate within 15 nm

present movement toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 13 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 941 mb
eye diameter 25 nm
Max sustained winds 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt.
64 kt....... 70ne 55se 40sw 40nw.
50 kt.......120ne 75se 60sw 75nw.
34 kt.......160ne 130se 80sw 100nw.
12 ft seas..275ne 160se 160sw 275nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 22.0n 71.0w at 01/2100z
at 01/1800z center was located near 21.8n 70.5w

forecast valid 02/0600z 23.1n 73.0w
Max wind 125 kt...gusts 155 kt.
64 kt... 70ne 55se 40sw 50nw.
50 kt...120ne 75se 60sw 75nw.
34 kt...160ne 130se 80sw 125nw.

Forecast valid 02/1800z 24.3n 74.9w
Max wind 125 kt...gusts 155 kt.
64 kt... 70ne 55se 45sw 50nw.
50 kt...120ne 100se 75sw 100nw.
34 kt...160ne 130se 100sw 125nw.

Forecast valid 03/0600z 25.4n 76.7w
Max wind 125 kt...gusts 155 kt.
64 kt... 70ne 55se 45sw 50nw.
50 kt...120ne 100se 75sw 100nw.
34 kt...170ne 140se 100sw 125nw.

Forecast valid 03/1800z 26.5n 78.5w
Max wind 125 kt...gusts 155 kt.
50 kt...120ne 100se 75sw 100nw.
34 kt...170ne 140se 100sw 125nw.

Forecast valid 04/1800z 28.0n 80.5w
Max wind 115 kt...gusts 140 kt.
50 kt...120ne 100se 50sw 75nw.
34 kt...170ne 140se 75sw 100nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 05/1800z 29.5n 82.5w...inland
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.

Outlook valid 06/1800z 32.5n 84.5w...inland
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 22.0n 71.0w

next advisory at 02/0300z

forecaster Avila

****


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BillD at work
Unregistered




Re: Northward turn? [Re: LI Phil]
      #22656 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:44 PM

I think it is just the eye reforming, with maybe a slight more lean to the north, but not NW. Give it anoher hour or two.

Bill


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Bloodstar
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Re: Northward turn? [Re: LI Phil]
      #22657 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:45 PM

Keep in mind, the NRL site has sat updates as often as every 5 - 10 minutes, in addition, it looks like the entire sat pic is shifting north slightly, not just the storm... possibly a small wobble in the sat causing the seeming northward jog?

we'll know more in an hour or two... paitence is the best medicine.

Mark


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alan
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Re: Northward turn? [Re: LI Phil]
      #22658 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:46 PM

It sure looks like a northern turn. I'm seeing light at the end of the tunnel for the first time today. It's faint, but it's a light caused by the elongation n/s and the northern jog.
The question is is it a jog or a trend?

On a side note, the new track is in. It's an extension, but a slow down of the storm. It now has it coming in at 115 knts, but taking 24 hours to go 90 miles.


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Ed in Va
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Re: 5PM Update [Re: Doombot!]
      #22659 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:50 PM

So there are no FL watches/warnings that we thought we'd see at 5? Is the NHC now hedging on a FL landfall?

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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BillD at work
Unregistered




Re: 5PM Update [Re: Ed in Va]
      #22660 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:51 PM

At 11 AM the NHC said Hurricane Watches tonight or tomorrow morning, so they are sticking to their plan.

Bill


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rickonboat
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Miami bound babeeee [Re: alan]
      #22661 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:51 PM

Probably just a jog, or eye-wall replacement cycle. We will know in an hour or two.


thought this was an interesting quote from the NHC....


"Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day"


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 5PM Update [Re: Ed in Va]
      #22662 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:51 PM

Quote:

So there are no FL watches/warnings that we thought we'd see at 5? Is the NHC now hedging on a FL landfall?




8PM, 11PM or very early tomorrow for watches.


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BobVee
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Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: MikeC]
      #22663 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:52 PM

Lake County Schools will be out on Friday. All extracurricular activity has been canceled. Home Depot in Clermont had about 300 in line to buy up to 15 sheets of plywood at 11 AM. Me thinks it is all gone.

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HCW
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Re: 5PM Update [Re: MikeC]
      #22664 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:52 PM

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST TONIGHT

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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jth
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Re: Northward turn? [Re: alan]
      #22665 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:52 PM

Really expected a shift SW of the track. They are the experts. They could have been thinking about the shift and then seen the NW jog and decided to leave it the same for now. The discussion will tell more.

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Bloodstar
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Re: 5PM Update [Re: Ed in Va]
      #22666 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:53 PM

Quote:

So there are no FL watches/warnings that we thought we'd see at 5? Is the NHC now hedging on a FL landfall?




Probably not close enough yet.
Quoted from:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/box/hurdef.html

"Hurricane watch: An announcement for specific areas that a hurricane or hurricane conditions pose a possible threat to coastal areas generally within 36 hours. In New England, due to the rapid acceleration of most of our hurricanes, it is a necessity that you take action during the watch."

It is still at least 48 hours out...
Mark

Edited by Bloodstar (Wed Sep 01 2004 05:00 PM)


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AphCane04
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Re: 5PM Update [Re: Ed in Va]
      #22667 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:55 PM

Quote:

So there are no FL watches/warnings that we thought we'd see at 5? Is the NHC now hedging on a FL landfall?




I'm now feeling fairly confident on no Miami/Ft. Lauderdale landfall. If it comes ashore in Jupiter, we'll just feel a sailing breeze down here in C. Gables.


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rjp
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Re: Northward turn? [Re: jth]
      #22668 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:57 PM

It seems as if they may actually shift it north some.
Quote:

Frances is moving toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 13
knots around the periphery of the subtropical ridge. How far west
the hurricane will go will depend on the future strength of the
ridge and that varies from model to model. The GFS and the GFDL
consistently weaken the ridge and turn the hurricane northwestward
earlier than any other models. Because the GFS and GFDL models are
very reliable...I was tempted to shift the track a little bit to
the north and east at this time. However...the Florida State
University super-ensemble and the conu consensus...which consists
of the average of the GFDL...GFDN...GFS...NOGAPS and UKMET
models...bring the hurricane on a west-northwest track across
Florida. Therefore...I am not ready to make the northward shift at
this time and the official forecast remains as in the previous
advisory...very close to the consensus and basically on top of the
FSU super-ensemble.


Forecaster Avila




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cwmajors
Unregistered




Re: 5PM Update [Re: Bloodstar]
      #22669 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:57 PM

From the 5:00 discussion at wunderground:

Data from the stepped frequency microwave radiometer...sfmr...on
board the NOAA p3 aircraft were used to decrease the wind radii
estimates in the northwest quadrant. Because the NW wind radii are
smaller than previously analyzed...the issuance of a Hurricane
Watch for the Florida East Coast can be delayed a little.


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alan
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Re: 5PM Update [Re: AphCane04]
      #22670 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:58 PM

The discussion said the wind radii in the nw quadrant shrank a little, thus postponing watches until tonight.

He also said they almost move the line right because of the GFDL and GFS, but decided to stay with the FSU and other models.


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mikeG
Unregistered




Re: 5PM Update [Re: cwmajors]
      #22671 - Wed Sep 01 2004 04:59 PM

URNT12 KNHC 012035
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/2035Z
B. 22 DEG 00 MIN N
70 DEG 49 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2557 M
D. 80 KT
E. 314 DEG 032 NM
F. 043 DEG 126 KT
G. 314 DEG 017 NM
H. 940 MB
I. 9 C/ 3116 M
J. 17 C/ 3115 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C30
N. 12345/7
O. .1/1 NM
P. AF966 1306A Frances OB 20
MAX FL WIND 131 KT NE QUAD 1905Z. MAX FL TEMP 20C 314/007NM
FROM FL CNTR. EYE WALL WAS RAGGED IN SW QUAD.


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fred08
Unregistered




Re: 5PM Update [Re: mikeG]
      #22672 - Wed Sep 01 2004 05:03 PM

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13
KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOW FAR WEST
THE HURRICANE WILL GO WILL DEPEND ON THE FUTURE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE AND THAT VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE GFS AND THE GFDL
CONSISTENTLY WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND TURN THE HURRICANE NORTHWESTWARD
EARLIER THAN ANY OTHER MODELS. BECAUSE THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS ARE
VERY RELIABLE...I WAS TEMPTED TO SHIFT THE TRACK A LITTLE BIT TO
THE NORTH AND EAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE FLORIDA STATE
UNIVERSITY SUPER-ENSEMBLE AND THE CONU CONSENSUS...WHICH CONSISTS
OF THE AVERAGE OF THE GFDL...GFDN...GFS...NOGAPS AND UKMET
MODELS...BRING THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS
FLORIDA. THEREFORE...I AM NOT READY TO MAKE THE NORTHWARD SHIFT AT
THIS TIME AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS AS IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AND BASICALLY ON TOP OF THE
FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE.

FORECASTER AVILA

could there be a north track?


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jth
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Re: 5PM Update [Re: fred08]
      #22673 - Wed Sep 01 2004 05:06 PM

GFS and GFDL have been reliable all year, but have been out to lunch so far with this system. Frances has been consistently left of those two tracks. Only time will tell, but the last frame on the sat indicates that the WNW motion has continued. I wouldn't place too much emphasis on those two models, but would do as they have done in this case and use the consensus approach until they all come in to line. Maybe the next run of the models will give us a better idea. Weren't there numerous Upper air recons in there this afternoon?

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mrorlmagik
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Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: MikeC]
      #22674 - Wed Sep 01 2004 05:10 PM

Would you please indicate the Orlando area on your map as to projected time and wind speed. Most people in Central Florida live in Orange/Seminole County but your latest projections run to Ocala which has few people.

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SoonerShawn
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Re: 5PM Update [Re: fred08]
      #22675 - Wed Sep 01 2004 05:10 PM

The discussion says that the SW portion of the eyewall was ragged. I think that part of the eye is kind of eroding away and that may be why it appears to have more of a north component now. At the same time it might just be making a little north jog; it's so hard for me to tell the difference.


ShawnS


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LI Phil
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Re: 5PM Update [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #22677 - Wed Sep 01 2004 05:16 PM

Sooner,

On this satellite loop from NRL, you can see the northward movement. Just look at the 22N line and watch Frances cross it. Will definitely need to see more consistent movement to know for sure it's not a wobble, but it is DEFINITELY gaining latittude

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Wxwatcher2
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Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning [Re: mrorlmagik]
      #22678 - Wed Sep 01 2004 05:18 PM

Quote:

Would you please indicate the Orlando area on your map as to projected time and wind speed. Most people in Central Florida live in Orange/Seminole County but your latest projections run to Ocala which has few people.




While not quite as many people in the Lake Marion county area's, I can assure you, the population in that portion of the state is quite substantial. Not "few people" as you say.

It looks like NHC wants to move the track more Northerly but is hesitant to do so at this time.
Time will tell.


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RockledgeRick
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Re: 5PM Update [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #22679 - Wed Sep 01 2004 05:19 PM

Oh great.. I was hoping for a SW shift of the forecast track.. what happens? Now I'm the bullseye. I'll be joining the throng of evac pilgrims to Tampa. Sheesh, first Floyd, now Frances.. I'm really tired of these "F" ers!

--------------------
Been through Agnes, Erin, Irene, Dennis, Floyd, Charley, Frances, Jeanne, TS Fay, Matthew


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kelcot
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Re: 5PM Update [Re: RockledgeRick]
      #22685 - Wed Sep 01 2004 05:31 PM

At least all the people heading to Tampa are smarter than my family. They're going to evac Vero to go to Orlando. Did I mentoin that my family is a bunch of Polocks?

--------------------
Kelly


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Bev
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Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
Re: 5PM Update [Re: kelcot]
      #22690 - Wed Sep 01 2004 05:44 PM

I'm still not grasping what is occuring to cause the GFDL to show such a strong northward trend. A storm of this size is slow to turn any direction, it's like turning a semi-truck.

In addition, I'm watching the "Mean Wind Analysis" and just don't see the steering capable of moving it much further north.

See graphics here:
http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html

Best of luck to all near the path. Hoping it stays away, my nerves are just recovering from Charley.

-Bev

--------------------
Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.


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