Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Can any one explain to me how the dropsondes can be faulty...
I would like to know the story on this one..... was it a bunch of em bad? I know they used more than one! were the bad ones used multiple times? how many of the model runs were affected? for how many days? was this a programming issue? and do they know how much stress all this model flip flopping has created? more importantly how do we know the ones they are using are good? what's this story all about.....
gee, I'm starting to sound like Colleen.... hehe
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MikeG
Unregistered
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look at sat....this could be the biggest eye yet!!!
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Quote:
Where'd did you find that out; and as text or a graphic?
Got the info from a met teacher at .
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Jason,
I haven't heard any of that here at ...it was happenstance rumor around these boards a few days back, and I may have briefly mentioned it one day, but that's as far as it travelled. I'm pretty in tune with things and know all of the big guys here in the hurricane business, so I would think I'd hear about it if it happened. I'm not trying to say that it didn't happen -- just that I haven't heard anything to that sort around the department (and the storm has been the talk of the department) this week.
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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That works too... I wonder if I should take a couple college classes at ... Thanks all
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nppam
Registered User
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Posts: 3
Loc: North Port, Florida
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Well, shucks-- the model is supposed to be pretty good this year, but the public can't see it without paying. I guess we'll have to give those Seminoles another drubbing next time we meet on the gridiron. Georgia Bulldog, Class of '74
Yeah, it's kind of like those of us who pay to read Bastardi...the best things in life may be free, but the REALLY good stuff is all now PUSU
Edited by LI Phil (Thu Sep 02 2004 02:08 AM)
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Quote:
The superensemble didn't fcst to move inland south of Tampa - in fact, many models were trending west of Tampa less than 24 hours before actual landfall. Anyone in "the cone" needs to be prepared for some impact from .
Maybe I had bad info then. I had heard that the Superensemble had been to the right of Tampa on most of the runs for . Maybe the info I got was worng/.
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PFSThunder
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 38
Loc: Charleston, SC
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This is a good analysis of the models and ongoing WNW trend. Good read!!!!!
http://www.wxrisk.com/hurricane/hurricanes.htm
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Go Boilermakers
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teal61
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 61
Loc: Spring, TX (30.1N 95.5W)
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http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~rickk/frances.html
About 24 frames so high speed connection is a plus.
It's nice to have a longer loop to look at, movement is pretty steady WNW.
For the jog police, last few frames show a decent jog back to the left though.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I'll admit that there may have been a bad dropsonde. But I get all the Hurricane Hunter drop data, and I count 153 drops int the last 3 days. This doesn't include the NOAA P-3 or Gulfstream IV drops. So yes I can see they may have had a bad sonde. That would put it at 0.0065%
They are going to have to do better than that.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
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The thing is, all of that data is quality controlled before it goes into the models. If there was a bad sonde, it would be removed before even getting into the models. That may cause a lack of data, but they launched so many of those in such a small area that it shouldn't make that much of a difference. I'm not saying it isn't possible, but it reeks of irresponsibility (on all parts) if so.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Looks like they are going up at 11 pm from Florida City northward.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 337
Loc:
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Thanks Teal61, that is an awesome sat picture....
Frances is beautiful and, dangerous.
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RevUp
Weather Guru
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Posts: 181
Loc:
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The Super may have been south of Tampa for most of the time w/ . I just know what I heard and saw in the 12-36 hours leading up to actual landfall. I believe did a great job of trying to maintain a steady course, despite some crazy variabilities in some of the model data.
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200406.disc.html
11:00 P.M. discussion just up
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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11 PM Is out... Same Course maybe a little more south..
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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And once again Stacy explains it well...including the phantom dropsonde problem....
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Jason Kelley
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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Indeed, he explains his discussions in a concise and informative manner, if not a little ominous for us here.
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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Well from what I read on the wxunderground discussion, two words fly into my mind..."Ay Carumba!"
Does this mean that this storm may increase to a CatV before landfall?
Also, they just said on the weather channel that a Hurricane Watch is in effect at 11pm from Florida City to Flagler Beach.....  
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You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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85% or so of the Florida east coast is now under a hurricane Watch, plus Lake Okeechobee. The area south to the 7 Mile Bridge is under a T.S. watch as well. Leads me to believe they still really aren't sure about the path, though they are pretty sure about Florida.
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