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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4111
Loc: Orlando, FL
It Shifts Left
      #23100 - Thu Sep 02 2004 06:32 AM

11AM
Hurricane Warnings are now up.... From Florida City in Extreme Southern Mainland Florida, to Flager Beach Between Daytona And Jacksonville. This also includes Lake Okechobee. It is coming folks.

Hurricane warnings mean hurricane conditions can be expected within 24 hours... That does not mean landfall in 24 hours, just the edge of hurricane conditions. Today is the day to act folks.

Original Update
Good morning, as Hurricane Frances nears the Central Bahamas (Click here to read personal reports from the Bahama Islands), the latest projections are in this morning (As of 5AM) and the tracks shifted left, bringing the landfall point closer to Jupiter Inlet than Vero Beach, but still up through Central Florida into near Orlando... basically up the Florida's Turnpike.

Do not focus on the exact point of landfall, the deviation may be great up or down the coast because of the angle of approach!


The Hurricane watch was extended southward to include parts of the Upper keys and remains up north through Flagler Beach in Flager County.


However, Frances is a large storm, quite a deal so more than Charley in respect to pure area of winds and more. Do not take the point of landfall as the end all. It could be left or right of it, and depending the angle of approach it could be off quite a bit north or south. The forecast track has the storm moving painfully slow through Florida as well.

The fact that models are STILL split as to what Frances will do is also disturbing. Please don't take the projected track as the end all. From the Keys all the way into Carolinas. Hurricane Warnings will be issued today, and a lot of barrier islands in the watch area will likely be evacuated later today. (Please see local media/officials for up to date information on that)

More to come later today.

Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:

Melbourne (East Central Florida)
Miami (South Florida)
Key West (Florida Keys)

Local county by county information will no longer be updated unles there is breaking news here -- it's just impossible to keep up because of the size of the area under Hurricane Watch. Use the links in the last article to view county emergency management webpages. Florida Disaster.org is the state em page, with links to locals as well.

Definitely more to come later...

** SITE NOTE ** This website is receiving way beyond record traffic today, it will be slow, it will go down ocasionally, but should be back up shortly when that happens. We've done everything we can to help this along short of dumping zillions into bandwidth and hardware to keep it going. Apologies in advance.

Jim Williams over at Hurricane City will be doing live broadcasts about Hurricane Frances startiing tonight at 8PM EST.

Event RelatedLinks
Frances Models -- This image animated over time
All model "Spaghetti" for Frances from hurricanealley
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image of Frances approach
High Speed Satellite Loops of Frances (Click floater)



General Links
Current Aircraft Recon Info



NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


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Shawn W.
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 23
Loc: Charleston, S.C.
Re: It Shifts Left [Re: MikeC]
      #23103 - Thu Sep 02 2004 06:38 AM

Sorry, Florida.

Local mets are telling us here in Coastal South Carolina that another 24 hours will tell the tale if it will take a turn like some models forecast.

But, I just don't see that happening.


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TAZMAN
Unregistered




Re: It Shifts Left [Re: Shawn W.]
      #23104 - Thu Sep 02 2004 06:43 AM

I would like to say thanks to all here.. the info I have found here is quite excellent. My question is this.... I am a newbie to FL and live in Clermont which is just west of the latest projected path. I live in a new single story home and was hoping someone could provide some input as to what I should expect and whether or not my family is safe in that part of the state......obviously if the path stays as stated. I realize we would be within the eye but I have no idea what that entails!!! Thanks in advance for any comments.

Scott


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Shawn W.
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 23
Loc: Charleston, S.C.
Re: It Shifts Left [Re: TAZMAN]
      #23107 - Thu Sep 02 2004 06:49 AM

You're going to receive enormous winds with this track, easily 110+.

This is definitely not the storm that you want as your first (you don't want this as a learning experience). If I were you, and have never been through a hurricane of this size (not many have), I would board up your windows and go to somewhere in northern South Carolina.


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Rmh
Unregistered




Re: It Shifts Left [Re: TAZMAN]
      #23108 - Thu Sep 02 2004 06:51 AM

If you are in line of a direct hit and expected to be a Cat 2 at the time the advice to you and your family is LEAVE. If you do not leave then find a safe location and prepare for the ride of your life. These things are nothing to chance with. Best to you and your family.

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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: It Shifts Left [Re: TAZMAN]
      #23109 - Thu Sep 02 2004 06:57 AM

Scott,
Basically speaking you are safer in a one story home if it has been built in the last 3 years, than you would be trying to evacuate to any place as of today. That is something that is relative to the landfall wind speeds. The higher the speed at landfall the more risk for anyone. The greatest threat from hurricanes before and after landfall is tornadic winds, no one can predict where, and flying debris which may have come from many miles away from you. The basic safe information is to stay away from your windows in a center room where there are no windows and hopefully at least one room between you and the outer walls of your home. Have flashlights, first aid kits, and cell phone if possible or other noise making object so that if the worst happens, you can be found as soon as help is available. We oldtimers in your area were just young chickens the last time anything of this magnitude happened here and frankly we were not in charge in those days of determining saftey. Follow your local emergency management recommendations and if you live in a prefabricated house or mobile home, leave when told to do so. A standard, housing development style or custom designed home built in the last 3 years will withstand good straight line winds with loss of shingles, etc. and if no trees or vehicles fall through the roof.( I am not being funny)

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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RubberDucky
Unregistered




Hobson's Choice in coastal Brevard [Re: MikeC]
      #23110 - Thu Sep 02 2004 07:09 AM

Betting on the track is dangerous this far out, but...

For Brevard coastal residents, normal 'let's go to Disney World' evacuation (putting one's butt directly under current Frances path projection) may be less attractive than riding it out. North looks better, but coastal north carries big risk of a slight kick right in the track.

Even if one could hang on to all options and not have to deal with 'no room at the inn' and clogged evac routes, the strategy may continue to amount to searching for the least worst choice.

Would note that Brevard high tide is around 12: Friday & Sat. Also that storm looks like probably a daylite event mostly.


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skippy1
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 3
Re: It Shifts Left [Re: Shawn W.]
      #23112 - Thu Sep 02 2004 07:22 AM

I live in Stuart. Am ready to evacuate now, whcih way is the question? My husband wants to go to the Keys, he is concerned about lack of fuel going North. I am woried about geting trapped if it turns and not being aqllowed into the Keys as we are no longer residents there.
This is a wonderful website. Have followed you for several years. You are all the best!!
Praying for everyones safety.
Would appreciate any thoughts.


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Bocagirl
Unregistered




Re: It Shifts Left [Re: MikeC]
      #23114 - Thu Sep 02 2004 07:23 AM

Hi all, so glad I found this site! I'm in Boca Raton, FL and wondering about evacuation. I have hotel reservations in Naples. If it were just me and my husband, we would stay put but I have a 2 year old and I don't want her to have to go through this storm. I'm scared of the travel conditions, that we will be safe there etc. Wondering what you all think, those of you who have been through this. Is there a chance it will go further south and then Naples will be effected as well? Is it better to stay put? Yikes, this is scary! Our first major hurricane since we moved here 6 years ago. Charley didn't hit us at all, not so much as a drop of rain. Thanks in advance.

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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: It Shifts Left [Re: skippy1]
      #23116 - Thu Sep 02 2004 07:25 AM

Have you been told to evacuate, then do so. If not, and you have a house that is built to code, then stay off the evacuation routes. If you have to evacuate, you really need to have a concrete destination in mind. This hurricane is going to be effecting every one at some point along the way, don't get caught in it and spend the time in traffic.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: It Shifts Left [Re: skippy1]
      #23117 - Thu Sep 02 2004 07:25 AM

Well tell him this, if you go to the keys,,,think also alot will go and they will also be short on gas for the return trip and besides,,,look ahead, can you see all the traffic and delays of coming back up the keys with only 1 road? Nightmare 7-8 hour drive back which normaly would take 5.

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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: It Shifts Left [Re: scottsvb1]
      #23118 - Thu Sep 02 2004 07:27 AM

Naples is a very good choice,, not the keys or anything from Ft Myers north till you get up north of tampa-Daytona right now.

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skippy1
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 3
Re: It Shifts Left [Re: scottsvb1]
      #23119 - Thu Sep 02 2004 07:29 AM

Scott, thank you. I have a freind in the Keys checking with officials as to weather they are letting people in. Will post when I recieve this info.

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anony
Unregistered




Re: It Shifts Left [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #23121 - Thu Sep 02 2004 07:41 AM

Way to go, Guppie Grouper. YOu have the message right on!

Caveat:

If you are in the warning area, even if you have a 'code' house, you might want to consider evacuating. Very few homes will survive a Cat4/5, unscathed.

Go early! Don't wait.


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lis
Unregistered




Re: It Shifts Left [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #23122 - Thu Sep 02 2004 07:43 AM

Does anyone know if I leave fort lauderdale now if I will have any trouble (1) getting gas and (2) getting out of the state?

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crm9501
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3
Loc: Boca Raton
Re: It Shifts Left [Re: lis]
      #23123 - Thu Sep 02 2004 07:48 AM

Lis, not sure about your questions. We are headed to Naples later today. As of yesterday they had rooms at the Residence Inn there and they accept pets. $95 a night.
Hope this helps. Good luck and be safe.


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Fingers1116
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3
Loc: Mobile, Al
Re: It Shifts Left [Re: crm9501]
      #23124 - Thu Sep 02 2004 07:59 AM

Hey All . . .All of us up here are prayin for all of you down there. Pls take all precautions, and do not let your guard down. Question . . . As per discussion, her track may be shifted even more westward as time progresses, which tends to make me believe she will re-emerge back into the GOM. Also, I wouldn't think if she crossed the most southern part of the peninsula, theat she would lose much intensity. I know Andrew did not, even though he crossed the VERY most southern tip. Also, isn't it becoming a much stronger possibility that she could affect us here on the Northern Gulf Coast in a few days. Your thoughts pls . . . Thx

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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: It Shifts Left [Re: TAZMAN]
      #23125 - Thu Sep 02 2004 08:04 AM

Quote:

I would like to say thanks to all here.. the info I have found here is quite excellent. My question is this.... I am a newbie to FL and live in Clermont which is just west of the latest projected path. I live in a new single story home and was hoping someone could provide some input as to what I should expect and whether or not my family is safe in that part of the state......obviously if the path stays as stated. I realize we would be within the eye but I have no idea what that entails!!! Thanks in advance for any comments.

Scott


Please note the following 5am post by MLB wx bureau which I think applies to Cleremont:

...WIND IMPACTS...
THE WIND THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS EXTREME. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WITH Frances ARE NEAR 145 MPH...BUT SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY WILL BE LIKELY. IT IS VERY IMPORTANT THAT
PEOPLE NOT BASE THEIR PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS SOLELY ON THE CENTER TRACK
OF Frances. Frances IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND WILL THEREFORE HAVE
A WIDE SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS. ALSO...THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK ITSELF. ALL RESIDENTS OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA MUST MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...WITH THE
UNDERSTANDING THAT SOME LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE MAJOR
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. WITH CATEGORY FOUR FORCE WINDS...LARGE TREES
ARE BLOWN DOWN WITH EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFING MATERIALS...
WINDOWS...AND DOORS. SMALL STRUCTURES MAY EXPERIENCE COMPLETE ROOF
FAILURES...WITH MOBILE HOMES EXPERIENCING COMPLETE DESTRUCTION.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING ONSHORE AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MOVING
ONSHORE FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND
OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST...THE
STRONGEST WINDS AROUND THE CORE OF Frances WILL MAKE LANDFALL
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.


This pretty well states that 'his' forecast area will experience major hurricane force'. Act accordingly.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Humanriff
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 24
Loc: Davenport, FL
Re: It Shifts Left [Re: lis]
      #23126 - Thu Sep 02 2004 08:05 AM

Yes, you will have trouble getting gas. My wife stopped at out "usual" gas station in Orldano at about 8:00 last night and the pumps were dry. I can only imagine it willl get worse today. During Hurricane Charley, only certain stations were open and there was about a 30 min waiting line. Try to find some place to fill in in Laurderdale so that you can make it to the GA line at least.

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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: It Shifts Left [Re: MikeC]
      #23127 - Thu Sep 02 2004 08:06 AM

Working on new street level maps and wind field maps. Will post ASAP.

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