ned1316
Unregistered
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I am in Savannah, Ga and have a wedding on Sunday evening in Santa Rosa Beach in the panhandle. I was supposed to leave today to go, but have no clue as to what I should do. People are still going and the wedding is being planned to be on. How bad will it be there on the other side? Should I still risk going or what? I would really appreciate it if anyone had any advice.
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nickyd
Unregistered
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Today is the day many decisions will be made. Decisions made by the , residences and herself. She will be coming to a fork in the road. Will she head towards the WNW or will she make that turn towards the north. I believe unfortunately she will head towards the Florida peninsula. I think the ridge will build in and push her more towards south Florida. Perhaps the Ft Lauderdale area and then exiting on the west coast between Sarasota and Cedar Key. If she does go toward the north I believe she will head toward the South Carolina coastline. I think the track is just south of the compromise of the two. This tells me that they are leaning more towards Florida but still leaving the door open on the eastern side of the models.
My call is landfall in south Florida.
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skippy1
Registered User
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Posts: 3
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Do you have a number for residence inn?
Talked to emergency mgmt in Marathon, Keys they say there are no viisitor restrictions.
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Working on new street level maps and wind field maps. Will post ASAP.
Thank you! Your maps and graphics are MOST HELPFUL in helping all of us visualize the forecast effects for our individual locations.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Working on new street level maps and wind field maps. Will post ASAP.
I can't Wait for the new maps to come out . You do a great job and are very fast at what you do  Thanks again
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JimAnderson
Registered User
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Posts: 9
Loc: Fort Monroe Virginia
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Just a rule of thumb. Using the direction of storm movement as 12 oclock on a watch, the most dangerous wind damage area is from 12 to 3 oclock. With the counter clockwise rotation of the storm, and the storm moving generally SE to NW, you can expect (again VERY generally) that winds will be lighter on the south side of the storm.
BUT, also to be considered is that is packing 145mph winds (NE side) which means the South side will still have winds in excess of 100mph. Not a storm to be taken lightly.
I suspect that the evacuation orders that have gone out are for the coastal areas for storm surge, not so much for the expected wind. If your house is built to code within the past few years, you are not in a storm surge or flood prone area, AND are not under a mandatory evacuation order, it may be best to ride this out. Take usual precautions, have bathtub filled with water for drinking, fuel for grill, generator w/fuel if you have one, board windows and hang out in interior room (bathroom?) during actual storm. Think tornados....
By staying put (again unless mandatory evac ordered), you keep from stressing the evac routes and shelters for those that really need it and you won't have the problem of not being allowed back onto your property by the local police after the storm.
Just my .02 worth what you paid for it.
Jim Anderson
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TAZMAN
Unregistered
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Quote:
Quote:
Working on new street level maps and wind field maps. Will post ASAP.
Thank you! Your maps and graphics are MOST HELPFUL in helping all of us visualize the forecast effects for our individual locations.
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ticka1
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 54
Loc: Southeast Texas
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With as large as a storm she is - there is going to be a greater area of impact. Please everyone take heed of the warning. Finalize your preparations today to either evacuate or stay somewhere safe.
Ticka1
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RevUp
Weather Guru
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Posts: 181
Loc:
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Several things to consider this morning ... looks to be slowing slightly (as forecast). Track AND timing are still big variables ... if leaving town, reservations & preparations should already be made.
A survey of damage inland after shows that most damage to homes was from pine trees snapped in half, and large uprooted oak trees, damaging roofs, mobile homes, aluminum porches, etc. and even some concrete walls.
Frances is so much bigger and wetter, and the possibilites in the track could range from going across Alligator Alley into the Gulf, to making a hard right turn just off the east coast and moving northward. Many of us have seen so many of these storms recurve at the last minute, but that's not a particularly good bet at this time.
"Plan for the worst, pray for the best."
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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According to recent recon storm still on a WNW heading, looks that way on satellite too. It looked like there was a small jump north but again I think it was an illusion due to the eye contracting again. Anyone think this could get as low as say 930mb or 925? 155mph winds? I think it may be possible judging the fact there is almost no shear to be found, SST's only getting warmer. We'll see.
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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IMO, I don't see a CAT V. The way she continues to go through eye restructuring phases over and over I just don't see it happening.
ShawnS
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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well let me see... a strong Cat 4 (145-150) or weak Cat 5 (156)..... not much difference if you're in that eye wall.....
at this point I don't think I'd let that aspect of the storm bother me very much..... other than bragging rights (yeah I survided a Cat 5) it really doesn't make that much difference relative to storm damage in the long run at this level of intensity
I think a lot will depend on what stage its at relative to the eye wall replacement cycles that we've seen over the past several days... hopefully it will go inland on the down side of an EWRC, and not the upswing... food for thought
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RevUp
Weather Guru
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Posts: 181
Loc:
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Frances has held its own quite well in a dry environment the last 24 hours. Looks like it is indeed entering an area of higher relative humidities and higher SST. I think everyone is holding out the possibility of strengthening, especially with some slowing in forward speed. My prayers go out to those in the northern and central Bahamas right now.
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I finally went to sleep about 3am last night, but woke up at 5:30am (tv still on--eek!) to find out that what I thought would happen did indeed happen. Looks like Polk County is going to see some really bad weather.
I decided that I would take a trip to the local Walmart SuperStore to stock up on items and was pleasantly surprised to find out when I got there that water had been restocked, ice had been restocked and I was able to get what I needed. It also only took me 45 minutes to do that and when I left at 7:30 cars were pouring in. I guess I can be thankful that I didn't get much sleep. I feel much more at ease as far as being stocked up. I can take a nap later. 
Polk County *may* be placed under a hurricane watch at the 11AM advisory according to Orlando's Channel 9.
To those that aren't sure whether to evacuate or not: the news channels are stressing that if you have NOT been told to leave, DON'T, because the roads are already clogged beyond belief. There was an accident on 95N by LPGA Boulevard and cars are backed up for miles. I hope people have enough sense to turn their cars off or else they'll run out of gas and I don't think there's going to a great supply of it up that way.
One of TB's radio stations had Ed Rappaport on and Jack Harris was trying to get a "general path" answer out of him, but he was steadfast in saying that he would not do that because 1)it's not a point and 2)it's such a large storm that it really doesn't matter at this point. He did mention that on the current track, inland counties will be hit pretty hard.
I am patiently awaiting the 11am advisory to see if this slowdown is going to happen or if it's just going to keep on keeping on. I know they're hoping that the race between the turn north wins out but right now I don't think they are even that confident in it. We were told that Polk county could expect 100+mph hour sustained winds.
I am also patiently awaiting to see what TB's chief met has to say this afternoon. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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deborah2002
Unregistered
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Hi everyone. I live in Seminole County (Oviedo) in a wood frame house built in '87. My husband and I (along w/our 2 kids) aren't sure wether to hit a shelter or ride this out. I have heard we will be getting Cat 2 winds, and I'm scared our house just won't handle it. Any thoughts insofar as the wood frame durability? I sure as hell don't wanna be there when the sucker collapses (we just bought it in June!). Thanks, ya'll.
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luki
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 17
Loc: palm beach county
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ive noticed this morning that the has shifted running more in line where was yestuday,was wondering how possible it may be that moves closer in conjunction with
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storm1
Unregistered
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just took a look at those model runs that had it going all over and now they all have a south fla hit. they are just east of track.
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Latest map is done. Streets with wind field...
NHC ADV#34
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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anyone has the latest models.?
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Tough question without knowing HOW its built.. One thing I know is critical, If you DO NOT have your roof secured with hurricane straps to your exterior walls, I would evacuate because you are in grave danger of your roof, or parts of it blowing off ... I don't know the building codes for your area.... now if I knew my structure was well strapped, every joyce, stuff, and rafter, then I'd make sure that every window was boarded up with at least 1/2 in plywood, securely fastened.... you do not want to lose a window which would allow the wind to penetrate your structure... even with hurricane straps, the wind could blow off the plywood decking of your roof... that is also NOT good... food for thought.... most well built structures should fare OK in a Cat 2 or 3.... Especially if they are well strapped... if you are in a flood zone, get heck out... period
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