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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: It Shifts Left [Re: DroopGB31]
      #23272 - Thu Sep 02 2004 03:00 PM

pressure up to 949 mb and poor satellite appearance--Ithink a weakening trend may have begun

also, seems we now have TD9 in the Atlantic

Frances weakening 09L.NONAME


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: It Shifts Left [Re: HCW]
      #23273 - Thu Sep 02 2004 03:00 PM

>>> Would someone please post a SLOSH map of South FL for me ?

You can find them on these boards, I believe they're in the storm links section

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
blink [Re: Unregistered User]
      #23274 - Thu Sep 02 2004 03:03 PM

frances inner core looks like utter crap early this afternoon. that pressure jump to 949 mb is probably legit weakening.. i don't know what the hell is causing it, but the eye has filled and the eyewall has become very asymmetric. the environment around the storm remains on the dry side.. those model predictions of a moister environment haven't verified yet.. this probably is a shot of subsidence acting to destabilize the inner core. on top of that the storm has wobbled well right of the forecast track... it is going RIGHT of san salvador, not left as the forecast track has been pegging it for the last few advisories.
let me rephrase that, it is going OVER san salvador.. the western eye at least
reading back through the forum i saw comments on abaco.. what the storm is doing as it nears the vicinity. if it's going to the palm beach area, it has to stay well left of abaco.. left and close to abaco is a space coast problem.. if it goes over it's a ne fl/s ga problem.. if it goes right it's ga/sc.
nah, the door isnt closed for further north just yet.
elsewhere in the basin... 97L has its convection all sheared to the north now. very well defined low level center, which has been intermittently under strong convection for days, which has arguably been a weak tropical storm, slowed and moving wnw near 19/41. it will either continue west as a weak surface system and probably die, or recurve into an upper trough near 45w and strengthen some. little chance to do anything significant, either way.
98L cruising west at low latitude. it has a d1.5 as of the last rating, which sometimes gets a system classified. GFS keeps it weak and west (into the caribbean by the middle of next week).. other globals tending to draw it wnw. slight chance it is t.d. 9 at 5 pm, more likely at 11 or later. this system has a good chance to be Ivan over the weekend.
nothing else imminent or looking terribly spooky. just a couple of invests and a very strong hurricane in the bahamas.
HF 1903z02september

Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Sep 02 2004 03:18 PM)


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DroopGB31
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
Re: It Shifts Left [Re: wxman007]
      #23275 - Thu Sep 02 2004 03:04 PM

I agree, I still think Solid 3 or 4 at landfall. Still have a feeling she may try to spin up on approach to the coast but just a gut feel. Also, IMO the threat area in the gulf judging by some models would be from "possibly" New Orleans, most likely a bit farther east from Mobile to St. Joe. What are your thoughts Jason? FWIW, I was look at Derek Ortt's forecast at S2K, and he believes that a gulf landfall is likely. He actually has me directly in the path of a 95kt hurricane. Kind of unsettling. Not gonna worry to much though. Thanks for your thoughts. I really love the fact we can talk to real met's online. Oh and Great job keeping the site up, its flying for me right now!!

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Scary... [Re: alan]
      #23276 - Thu Sep 02 2004 03:05 PM

>>> How did you get that landfall location? It's much more north than the NHC has it. Is it simply staying on the angle she has been on for the past few hours?

accuwx pro. I think your answer is yes...if she stays on accuwx course...they don't always agree with NHC. Just another weather resource option.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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alan
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
Re: Scary... [Re: LI Phil]
      #23277 - Thu Sep 02 2004 03:07 PM

Again, the moderators Rock!

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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




Re: Scary... [Re: LI Phil]
      #23278 - Thu Sep 02 2004 03:10 PM

Wow! Just when all the models seem to come to an agreement on a Florida landfall, Frances may have decided to take her butt to Georgia or the Carolinas after all. What a wacky storm!

ShawnS


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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: It Shifts Left [Re: wxman007]
      #23279 - Thu Sep 02 2004 03:10 PM

jason, per the models ukmet is the only one that really takes it in the gulf. a couple others have it skirting the west coast. what do you see that makes you think gulf?? is it because the model trends keep going farther west and a little south each time??

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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Re: blink [Re: HanKFranK]
      #23280 - Thu Sep 02 2004 03:10 PM

I think Jason must be looking at more current Sat pics as he stated that she has completed an eye reform and is still moving WNW. He expects possibly a little strengthening soon. Curious about the 12Z models??? other than the Cnadian and GFDL, what do they show?

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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Thoughts.... [Re: DroopGB31]
      #23281 - Thu Sep 02 2004 03:13 PM

Is the window closed on GA, NC, SC? No. But that is the absolute least likely of all the possible scenarios right now...I'd be more apt to call for a hard left turn into the Keys than I would for a NC landfall (and I am NOT calling for a Keys landfall).

Current motion is NW..I do expect to see a resumption to a more WNW track down the road aways...of course if this does not occur, the forecast landfall points will have to be adjusted, but for folks in S FL, this doesn't matter...it doesn't matter where the eventual landfall of the eye is, it is going to be rough from the Space Coast to near Miami regardless...the landfall point is more important for the evolution of the storm inland than for residents of S FL.

Pressure up...eye less distinct...I think Hank has some good ideas here..what I think this that some drier air got sucked in just about the time of an ERC...I do expect the storm to stabilize and maintain Cat 4 strength.

I put the probably of a strike between MLB and WPB at 90%...not certain, but I just don't see anything that would allow anything else to happen.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
New Vortex... [Re: wxman007]
      #23282 - Thu Sep 02 2004 03:20 PM

Pressure down another mb...open eye wall...so while there was some weakening...I do still think it is temporary..

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 02/1818Z
B. 23 DEG 51 MIN N
74 DEG 17 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2631 M
D. 65 KT
E. 237 DEG 022 NM
F. 322 DEG 81 KT
G. 236 DEG 017 NM
H. 948 MB
I. 14 C/ 3104 M
J. 15 C/ 3093 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. OPEN S-W
M. C20
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF861 1806A Frances OB 20
MAX FL WIND 129 KT NE QUAD 1425Z.
MAX FL TEMP 18C 236/008

--------------------
Jason Kelley


Edited by wxman007 (Thu Sep 02 2004 03:26 PM)


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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: It Shifts Left [Re: LI Phil]
      #23283 - Thu Sep 02 2004 03:22 PM

Quote:

>>> Would someone please post a SLOSH map of South FL for me ?

You can find them on these boards, I believe they're in the storm links section




Thanks I apreciate it

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Scary2 [Re: wxman007]
      #23284 - Thu Sep 02 2004 03:23 PM Attachment (358 downloads)

See attachment

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Wendell
Unregistered




Cape Coral [Re: wxman007]
      #23285 - Thu Sep 02 2004 03:24 PM

What kind of winds and rain can we expect in Cape Coral? After Charley we couldn't take much more. Debris is still lying out in piles....

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DroopGB31
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
Re: Cape Coral [Re: Wendell]
      #23287 - Thu Sep 02 2004 03:32 PM

If ya ask me, Yes, Frances is weakening a bit. But think about it, she's been a Cat 4. for a long time now. Its not often that hurricanes can sustain that amount of strength, so she is weakening a bit. I think in the next few hours she'll begin to shake out the loose parts and wrap back up. Just my opinion. Or maybe she wont. That would be great news for Flordia.

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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Pinpoint Weather.... [Re: Wendell]
      #23288 - Thu Sep 02 2004 03:32 PM

Wendall, this is not me calling you out, so please don't take it personally...

I simply don't have time to resond to everyone who asks "What is it going to be like in ________". My suggestion is to go here and click on the NWS forecast office that covers your area, then click on the map on their homepage that is closest to your home...that is the best way to get a specific forecast for your location.

JK, you beat me to it. Thanks.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


Edited by LI Phil (Thu Sep 02 2004 03:34 PM)


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
Re: Pinpoint Weather.... [Re: wxman007]
      #23289 - Thu Sep 02 2004 03:41 PM

On the Sat frames the past couple of hours, Frances seems to be moving NNW. This would seem to keep her off shore.

Anyone else seeing this or is it just temporary.
It's a definate change of direction.....looks like it?

Comments?


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: Pinpoint Weather.... [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #23290 - Thu Sep 02 2004 03:44 PM

I wouldn't call it NNW, but yes, that is the current motion...I do expect a WNW to resume at some point tonight or tomorrow...this is not set in stone of course, but any gain of latitude is better for S FL, and worse for Central and N FL, or perhaps S GA as well...again, I do think this is a S of MLB storm, but there are no guarantees..

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida
Re: Pinpoint Weather.... [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #23291 - Thu Sep 02 2004 03:45 PM

I don't see that at all...but that could be me.

If anyone is at home or has access to a TV, Max Mayfield is going to be on Fox News Channel in a few minutes...I think he may answer a lot of these questions. I'll try to let you know what he says, if there's any change in track, direction, etc. Hang tight.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Shawn W.
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 23
Loc: Charleston, S.C.
Re: Pinpoint Weather.... [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #23292 - Thu Sep 02 2004 03:46 PM

Definitely. It was going NW from around 12 to 3 today, now for almost the past hour it's been going almost (not quite) NNW. I know this wasn't projected to move this way, and, obviously, it's not a jog.

Jason, what could be causing this?


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