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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: another 6 hours.... [Re: rickonboat]
      #23353 - Thu Sep 02 2004 05:35 PM

>>> Anyone know the name of that hapless little island that it went directly over?

San Salvador...it's in the Advisory...

BTW this is a link to current conditions in the Carib...lists all the island names for easy reference!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 175
Loc: Orlando, FL
5pm Advisory [Re: LI Phil]
      #23354 - Thu Sep 02 2004 05:37 PM

A little light on facts and info. When does Stewart get back on the clock?

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Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Lower wind speed at landfall? [Re: StormHound]
      #23355 - Thu Sep 02 2004 05:37 PM

Stormhound, Channel 6 is making the same mistake a bunch of folks in the office are. In the NHC discussion, they have the 48 hour location at 90kts and Inland (which usually means its made landfall and is weakening. The discussion stated they believe that Frances will make landfall as a Cat 4 hurricane.

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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




New Eye Reformation? [Re: LI Phil]
      #23357 - Thu Sep 02 2004 05:42 PM

Looking at the latest loops it looks to me as if we are having another reformation of her eye. The reds on the IR shots are now wrapping around where I think the new eye will eventually be. Let's see what you all think.

ShawnS


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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 175
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Lower wind speed at landfall? [Re: clyde w.]
      #23358 - Thu Sep 02 2004 05:44 PM

Quote:

Stormhound, Channel 6 is making the same mistake a bunch of folks in the office are. In the NHC discussion, they have the 48 hour location at 90kts and Inland (which usually means its made landfall and is weakening. The discussion stated they believe that Frances will make landfall as a Cat 4 hurricane.




Thanks Clyde. Major blunder on the part of Local 6.

--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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DroopGB31
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
Re: 5pm Advisory [Re: StormHound]
      #23359 - Thu Sep 02 2004 05:47 PM

Anybody get the feeling that as soon as you think you have grasped the idea of where Frances is going, then something goes wrong and your back to pulling your hair out? I've gotten that feeling atleast 5 times this week. Its crazy. Anways, the NHC's new track has me even more concerned as they are implying the idea that they believe a second landfall is possible. And Im going to assume that the track in the gulf will be more westerly then what they are showing because there shouldnt be anything around to turn Frances that hard and fast, plus the model guidance I've seen today leads me to believe that. Anybody want this season over with already say I....I !!!!!

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casps
Unregistered




Re: Lower wind speed at landfall? [Re: StormHound]
      #23360 - Thu Sep 02 2004 05:48 PM

asked earlier............ if you had the choice of a direct C/L of the eye or an ne quadrant.... which would be safest......

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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: 5pm Advisory [Re: DroopGB31]
      #23361 - Thu Sep 02 2004 05:52 PM

Actually, at least as far as my thoughts, Frances is well behaved...it's just a behavior I didn't want to see.

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Jason Kelley


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Lower wind speed at landfall? [Re: casps]
      #23362 - Thu Sep 02 2004 05:55 PM

Quote:

asked earlier............ if you had the choice of a direct C/L of the eye or an ne quadrant.... which would be safest......




With a CAT IV? Unless I had NO OPTIONS for leaving, neither one of those two is a very safe choice. If you think there's a chance you'd be in either location, why wouldn't you evac?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Todd
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 30
Loc: Havelock, NC(34.89n76.92w)
Re: another 6 hours.... [Re: rickonboat]
      #23363 - Thu Sep 02 2004 05:55 PM

Maybe this link will help explain the NHC forecast(s)/thinking a little more graphically

https://nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/wxgrid.pl?aor+sfcanal_blend_12z+alltimes


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cas
Unregistered




Re: Lower wind speed at landfall? [Re: LI Phil]
      #23364 - Thu Sep 02 2004 05:57 PM

Im sorry, I should have stated that I am talking about inland CF South of Clermont or Orlando / Apopka

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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami
Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic [Re: clyde w.]
      #23365 - Thu Sep 02 2004 05:57 PM

I wonder if TD9 is what the GFS has coming up near South Florida in about a week?

Bill


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: Hurricane Frances Still on Track TD#9 forms in Eastern Atlantic [Re: BillD]
      #23366 - Thu Sep 02 2004 06:00 PM

Quote:

I wonder if TD9 is what the GFS has coming up near South Florida in about a week?

Bill




Yep.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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casps
Unregistered




Re: Lower wind speed at landfall? [Re: cas]
      #23367 - Thu Sep 02 2004 06:00 PM

Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

asked earlier............ if you had the choice of a direct C/L of the eye or an ne quadrant.... which would be safest......


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



With a CAT IV? Unless I had NO OPTIONS for leaving, neither one of those two is a very safe choice. If you think there's a chance you'd be in either location, why wouldn't you evac?
Quote:



Im sorry, I should have stated that I am talking about inland CF South of Clermont or Orlando / Apopka




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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: another 6 hours.... [Re: Todd]
      #23368 - Thu Sep 02 2004 06:02 PM Attachment (404 downloads)

What the hell is going on at 108 hours?

See attachment

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Todd
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 30
Loc: Havelock, NC(34.89n76.92w)
Re: another 6 hours.... [Re: LI Phil]
      #23370 - Thu Sep 02 2004 06:05 PM

Sorry Phil...part of yesterday's run was in the group.. I had been waiting for these runs all day .. they just haven't cleared aout everthing

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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
San Salvador.... [Re: Todd]
      #23371 - Thu Sep 02 2004 06:07 PM

In terms of human suffering...for the last 6 hours or so, that little Island has withstood 140 mph sustained winds...and plenty of opportunity to catch 170 mph gusts. What is possibly left of it, I wonder?

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Hurricaned
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 14
I find the Orlando information confusing! [Re: MikeC]
      #23372 - Thu Sep 02 2004 06:07 PM

I find information regarding Orlando very confusing. If I use the Official Point Forecast from the National Weather Service, it says pretty encouraging things about Orlando:

Saturday - <major snip job> Windy, with a north northeast wind 30 to 35 mph increasing to between 40 and 45 mph. Winds could gust as high as 60 mph.

Saturday Night - <major snip job>Windy, with a north northeast wind 45 to 55 mph becoming southeast. Winds could gust as high as 80 mph.

...and yet, when I look at the Hurricane/Tropical Local Statement for Melbourne, it says this - "THE WIND THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS EXTREME. THE THREAT IS
MUCH GREATER FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED WITH HURRICANE Charley. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH Frances ARE NEAR 140 MPH. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY WILL BE LIKELY. IT IS VERY IMPORTANT THAT PEOPLE NOT BASE THEIR PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS SOLELY ON THE CENTER TRACK OF Frances. Frances IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND WILL THEREFORE HAVE A WIDE SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK ITSELF. ALL RESIDENTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MUST MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT SOME LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE WINDS NEAR 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS."


Okay, which one to believe??? :?: :?: :?:


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casps
Unregistered




Re: I find the Orlando information confusing! [Re: Hurricaned]
      #23373 - Thu Sep 02 2004 06:09 PM

Quote:

I find information regarding Orlando very confusing. If I use the Official Point Forecast from the National Weather Service, it says pretty encouraging things about Orlando:

Saturday - <major snip job> Windy, with a north northeast wind 30 to 35 mph increasing to between 40 and 45 mph. Winds could gust as high as 60 mph.

Saturday Night - <major snip job>Windy, with a north northeast wind 45 to 55 mph becoming southeast. Winds could gust as high as 80 mph.

...and yet, when I look at the Hurricane/Tropical Local Statement for Melbourne, it says this - "THE WIND THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS EXTREME. THE THREAT IS
MUCH GREATER FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED WITH HURRICANE Charley. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH Frances ARE NEAR 140 MPH. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY WILL BE LIKELY. IT IS VERY IMPORTANT THAT PEOPLE NOT BASE THEIR PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS SOLELY ON THE CENTER TRACK OF Frances. Frances IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND WILL THEREFORE HAVE A WIDE SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK ITSELF. ALL RESIDENTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MUST MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT SOME LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE WINDS NEAR 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS."


Okay, which one to believe??? :?: :?: :?:




DIG IT !!!! THIS IS WHY I ASK


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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




Re: another 6 hours.... [Re: Todd]
      #23374 - Thu Sep 02 2004 06:10 PM

I'm tired of being wrong!

ShawnS

Heh. Get used to it...happens to me all the time! Like with this one...

Edited by LI Phil (Thu Sep 02 2004 06:28 PM)


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