LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
>>> Anyone know the name of that hapless little island that it went directly over?
San Salvador...it's in the Advisory...
BTW this is a link to current conditions in the Carib...lists all the island names for easy reference!
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
StormHound
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
A little light on facts and info. When does Stewart get back on the clock?
--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek
|
clyde w.
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Stormhound, Channel 6 is making the same mistake a bunch of folks in the office are. In the discussion, they have the 48 hour location at 90kts and Inland (which usually means its made landfall and is weakening. The discussion stated they believe that will make landfall as a Cat 4 hurricane.
|
SoonerShawn
Unregistered
|
|
Looking at the latest loops it looks to me as if we are having another reformation of her eye. The reds on the IR shots are now wrapping around where I think the new eye will eventually be. Let's see what you all think.
ShawnS
|
StormHound
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Quote:
Stormhound, Channel 6 is making the same mistake a bunch of folks in the office are. In the discussion, they have the 48 hour location at 90kts and Inland (which usually means its made landfall and is weakening. The discussion stated they believe that will make landfall as a Cat 4 hurricane.
Thanks Clyde. Major blunder on the part of Local 6.
--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek
|
DroopGB31
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
|
|
Anybody get the feeling that as soon as you think you have grasped the idea of where is going, then something goes wrong and your back to pulling your hair out? I've gotten that feeling atleast 5 times this week. Its crazy. Anways, the 's new track has me even more concerned as they are implying the idea that they believe a second landfall is possible. And Im going to assume that the track in the gulf will be more westerly then what they are showing because there shouldnt be anything around to turn that hard and fast, plus the model guidance I've seen today leads me to believe that. Anybody want this season over with already say I....I !!!!!
|
casps
Unregistered
|
|
asked earlier............ if you had the choice of a direct C/L of the eye or an ne quadrant.... which would be safest......
|
wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
|
|
Actually, at least as far as my thoughts, is well behaved...it's just a behavior I didn't want to see.
--------------------
Jason Kelley
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
Quote:
asked earlier............ if you had the choice of a direct C/L of the eye or an ne quadrant.... which would be safest......
With a CAT IV? Unless I had NO OPTIONS for leaving, neither one of those two is a very safe choice. If you think there's a chance you'd be in either location, why wouldn't you evac?
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
Todd
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 30
Loc: Havelock, NC(34.89n76.92w)
|
|
Maybe this link will help explain the forecast(s)/thinking a little more graphically
https://nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/wxgrid.pl?aor+sfcanal_blend_12z+alltimes
|
cas
Unregistered
|
|
Im sorry, I should have stated that I am talking about inland CF South of Clermont or Orlando / Apopka
|
BillD
User
Reged:
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
|
|
I wonder if TD9 is what the has coming up near South Florida in about a week?
Bill
|
wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
|
|
Quote:
I wonder if TD9 is what the has coming up near South Florida in about a week?
Bill
Yep.
--------------------
Jason Kelley
|
casps
Unregistered
|
|
Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
asked earlier............ if you had the choice of a direct C/L of the eye or an ne quadrant.... which would be safest......
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
With a CAT IV? Unless I had NO OPTIONS for leaving, neither one of those two is a very safe choice. If you think there's a chance you'd be in either location, why wouldn't you evac? Quote:
Im sorry, I should have stated that I am talking about inland CF South of Clermont or Orlando / Apopka
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
What the hell is going on at 108 hours?
See attachment
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
Todd
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 30
Loc: Havelock, NC(34.89n76.92w)
|
|
Sorry Phil...part of yesterday's run was in the group.. I had been waiting for these runs all day .. they just haven't cleared aout everthing
|
rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 90
|
|
In terms of human suffering...for the last 6 hours or so, that little Island has withstood 140 mph sustained winds...and plenty of opportunity to catch 170 mph gusts. What is possibly left of it, I wonder?
|
Hurricaned
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 14
|
|
I find information regarding Orlando very confusing. If I use the Official Point Forecast from the National Weather Service, it says pretty encouraging things about Orlando:
Saturday - <major snip job> Windy, with a north northeast wind 30 to 35 mph increasing to between 40 and 45 mph. Winds could gust as high as 60 mph.
Saturday Night - <major snip job>Windy, with a north northeast wind 45 to 55 mph becoming southeast. Winds could gust as high as 80 mph.
...and yet, when I look at the Hurricane/Tropical Local Statement for Melbourne, it says this - "THE WIND THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS EXTREME. THE THREAT IS
MUCH GREATER FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED WITH HURRICANE . THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH ARE NEAR 140 MPH. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY WILL BE LIKELY. IT IS VERY IMPORTANT THAT PEOPLE NOT BASE THEIR PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS SOLELY ON THE CENTER TRACK OF . IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND WILL THEREFORE HAVE A WIDE SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK ITSELF. ALL RESIDENTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MUST MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT SOME LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE WINDS NEAR 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS."
Okay, which one to believe??? :?: :?: :?:
|
casps
Unregistered
|
|
Quote:
I find information regarding Orlando very confusing. If I use the Official Point Forecast from the National Weather Service, it says pretty encouraging things about Orlando:
Saturday - <major snip job> Windy, with a north northeast wind 30 to 35 mph increasing to between 40 and 45 mph. Winds could gust as high as 60 mph.
Saturday Night - <major snip job>Windy, with a north northeast wind 45 to 55 mph becoming southeast. Winds could gust as high as 80 mph.
...and yet, when I look at the Hurricane/Tropical Local Statement for Melbourne, it says this - "THE WIND THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS EXTREME. THE THREAT IS
MUCH GREATER FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED WITH HURRICANE . THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH ARE NEAR 140 MPH. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY WILL BE LIKELY. IT IS VERY IMPORTANT THAT PEOPLE NOT BASE THEIR PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS SOLELY ON THE CENTER TRACK OF . IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND WILL THEREFORE HAVE A WIDE SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK ITSELF. ALL RESIDENTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MUST MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT SOME LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE WINDS NEAR 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS."
Okay, which one to believe??? :?: :?: :?:
DIG IT !!!! THIS IS WHY I ASK
|
SoonerShawn
Unregistered
|
|
I'm tired of being wrong!
ShawnS
Heh. Get used to it...happens to me all the time! Like with this one...
Edited by LI Phil (Thu Sep 02 2004 10:28 PM)
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
