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Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 60 (Michael) , Major: 60 (Michael) Florida - Any: 60 (Michael) Major: 60 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 185
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: another 6 hours.... [Re: Rabbit]
      #23395 - Thu Sep 02 2004 06:38 PM Attachment (275 downloads)

I've been keeping an eye on the GOES-12 wind shear map and it looks to me like Frances could have some shear coming up from Cuba out of the SW. Right now it looks like it would continue all the way until Frances got to just a hair ENE of Nassau. Or am I seeing things?

--------------------
Check the Surf

Edited by AgentB (Thu Sep 02 2004 06:42 PM)


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spook
Unregistered




Re: another 6 hours.... [Re: Rabbit]
      #23396 - Thu Sep 02 2004 06:40 PM

Just in,Kerry says no hurricanes in Florida during his term,sites Andrew,Charles,Frances,all during Bush terms.Dan Rather does not know which storm to cover,the one in Florida or New York.Do not mean to make lite of the situation,just trying to take the edge off the people under the gun.

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SOUTHFLAHAPPTGAL
Unregistered




Re: NHC Update... [Re: wxman007]
      #23397 - Thu Sep 02 2004 06:40 PM

I am in Pompano Beach now. I had to evacuate today. I have been so busy preparing that I haven't been able to stay abreast of the posts. Can someone fill me in on the storm? The local TV has it's usual HYPE and HYSTERIA! I think I picked up that they still don't know where the storm is gonna go! I am experiencing rain right now. I want to stay online as long as I can

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FlaRebel
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 59
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: Closer... more detail/cities/streets [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #23398 - Thu Sep 02 2004 06:41 PM

Skeeto, thanks for all the work! Great graphics. They are opening a shelter here in Tallahassee for all the evacuees tonight at 7 PM at the local Mormon church. No hotel rooms to be had. Looks like we may feel the effects of her second landfall and be in the NE quadrant. I'm expecting 60-85 MPH winds and gusts. Nothing I can't ride out.................UNLESS she strengthens quickly and I'm GONE. Too many 75-100 ft pines around my house to stay and risk that. Good luck to all. It's been a wild ride and fixing to get alot wilder.

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francois
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 4
Re: Closer... more detail/cities/streets [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #23399 - Thu Sep 02 2004 06:42 PM

I have a question for you. Is this map accurate according to the National Weather service ? It seems that Orlando won't be hitted. Am I correct?

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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




Re: another 6 hours.... [Re: AgentB]
      #23400 - Thu Sep 02 2004 06:42 PM

Looks like the eye is starting to open up again as per IR. May start to strengthen again, but then again maybe not.

ShawnS


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Sats... [Re: francois]
      #23401 - Thu Sep 02 2004 06:44 PM

Latest sats show the eye redeveloping...along with a 1 mb (extrap) drop in pressure from the Vortex...could be the beginning of her getting reorganized.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Hurricaned
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 14
Re: Miami, poured for five minutes and sky was blue a minute later [Re: LoisCane]
      #23402 - Thu Sep 02 2004 06:45 PM

Quote:

Everyone has been calm here for the last few hours as they changed the storm direction to the NW. Mind you everyone knows it could turn back...but it was a welcome breathing spell.




Ummmmmmmm,,,,,,,,, what does this mean in English for Orlando?


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FlaRebel
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 59
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: Sats... [Re: wxman007]
      #23403 - Thu Sep 02 2004 06:49 PM

I think you are right Jason. She looks to be on the upswing again. I'm thinking winds here in Tallahassee of 60-85 MPH based on the current track. Realistic? Keep up the great work!

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Doombot!
Unregistered




Orlando outlook. [Re: Hurricaned]
      #23404 - Thu Sep 02 2004 06:49 PM

Orlando area should prepare for winds sustained at 120MPH gusting to 140MPH.

That's not to say that it will happen, but it very well could.

Doombot!


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spook
Unregistered




Re: Sats... [Re: wxman007]
      #23405 - Thu Sep 02 2004 06:50 PM

Could that be a new eye forming the north,a small clear spot on sat floater Jason?

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spook
Unregistered




Re: Sats... [Re: wxman007]
      #23406 - Thu Sep 02 2004 06:51 PM

Could that be a new eye forming on the north,a small clear spot on sat floater Jason?

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TBAJE
Unregistered




Re: Sats... [Re: spook]
      #23407 - Thu Sep 02 2004 06:52 PM

did i just hear Lyons say, Miami clear in about 2 hours

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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Closer... more detail/cities/streets [Re: francois]
      #23408 - Thu Sep 02 2004 06:53 PM

Quote:

I have a question for you. Is this map accurate according to the National Weather service ? It seems that Orlando won't be hitted. Am I correct?




These maps are accurate to the exact coordinates (we may be off by about 100 meters here or there) given by NHC for the forecast they cover.

The wind fields are based on the dimensions (stats) of Frances at the time of the advisory. Example: Hurricane force winds extending 80 miles and Tropical Storm force winds extending 185 miles. In short, they are exactly to scale based on the data given.

We received guidance this morning on more accurately diminishing the "cone" for the wind field to better match the affect of the storm moving over land.

Note that the accuracy of these maps in relation to the forecast has nothing to do with the accuracy of the forecast!


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: Sats... [Re: spook]
      #23409 - Thu Sep 02 2004 06:55 PM

I'm not sure what floater you are referring to, but the 2232Z GOES-12 image clearly shows a warm spot which is likely a (re)developing eye.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


Edited by wxman007 (Thu Sep 02 2004 06:58 PM)


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Track [Re: spook]
      #23410 - Thu Sep 02 2004 06:57 PM

Not sure what to believe. Looks like it's weakening and then like it's strengthening. Storm moves right and track goes left. This is crazy, one minute it looks better for S. FL. and the next it looks worse. Well, preparations are made, time to sit down, follow the storm and enjoy some Jack Daniels.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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dhcp
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 1
Restore the sanity.. PLEASE!!!! [Re: MikeC]
      #23411 - Thu Sep 02 2004 06:57 PM

Hello. I have veiwed this site for quite awhile now, although, this is my first time posting here.. first, allow me to thank the founders and participants of this website for making such an honest effort into predicting the movement of these horrendous storms...

I live in New Port Richey (Pasco County) and I am fed up with FEMA, local emergency management agencies, NOAA, NHC, and most local meterologists.. I'm not sure how many of you live within the Tampa Bay area but let me tell you, when Hurriicane Charley failed to make landfall anywhere within it, it's incredible how disappointed the media agencies were.. they failed to realize they were the ones that HYPED the projected path into the Tampa area.. as you all know, Tampa Bay has been spared a direct hit by a major hurricane for years.. as soon as the local stations who pushed and pressed and swore it was coming this way were wrong, they were quick to defend themselves while expressing disappointment.. an almost impossible position to assume.. one of their replies was something along the lines of "these are just computer models.. computers like humans can be wrong" .. well no sh*t.. the problem isn't that the computer model was wrong.. the problem is, these people WANTED and HOPED the storm hit here.. its all about television network.. sad they value ratings and excitement over peoples safety, lives, and our beautiful communities that would have been merely destroyed, especially in Pinellas since it is surronded by 3 bodies of water..

That storm did not drop an ounce of rain in Pinellas or Pasco Counties nor did it really damper Hillsborough or Hernando Counties.. now the day after the storm we were hit hard.. but the entire bay area was shutdown completely for almost 2 full days.. unnecessary evacuations were ordered.. people were panicing and chaos was resident.. then when Charley made landfall down south basically where it was ORIGINALLY forecasted to cross the east coast, people were really angry.. I know I was..

it's hard to appreciate the efforts of real meterologists today because most of them are all about ratings and the coverage.. they feel important that thousands of people are relying on what they're forecasting and know their opinion is valued.. its ashame that such important judgement can be so clouded by a camera and the thrill of natural disaster waiting to happen..

Over the past two seasons I"ve learned to appreciate websites that are run and owned by enthusiasts... its obvious you guys do not want to intentionally misrepresent data or opinion but want to offer a clear and accurate path as to where the storm is headed.. I really appreciate that, very much..

schools here in Pinellas and Pasco are closed tomorrow.. don't get me wrong but we're overpreparing.. it's my belief if this storm crosses through the bay area that by the time it does, it will be within the category 1 - category 2 stage on the S/S scale.. furthermore, it is clearly obvious it is not going to make landfall tomorrow never the less pose any kind of safety risk to Pasco or Pinellas County Friday or Friday night.. Pinellas has by far the absolute worst emergency management service in existence.. sure its a small and densley populated county.. but to close schools a day before it hits hundreds of miles away on the other coast?

absolutely ridiculous and unacceptable.. Walmart here on US Highway 19 in Port Richey will be closed as of midnight Friday and they are boarding up their stores.. that is foolish.. these storms have caused nothing but chaos and panic and the media is directly responsible.. NOAA and the weather channel doesn't help..

just keep it real guys, like you always have.. adversity in a situation like this is probably the most logical and level headed approach one can have.. people were buying up water today left & right locally.. guys, I LIVE IN NEW PORT RICHEY.. NOT PALM BEACH COUNTY or the liking.. its never a bad thing to be fully supplied but jesus.. give me a break.. some of the severe weather storms we have in the summertime are of more intesity.. outrageous, completely outrageous.. the east coast clearly has a reason to fear and worry... the west coast has a reason to be alert.... thats about it..


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SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL
Unregistered




Re: Sats... [Re: TBAJE]
      #23412 - Thu Sep 02 2004 06:58 PM

I hope so....cause I won't be far behind it

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francois
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 4
Re: Closer... more detail/cities/streets [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #23413 - Thu Sep 02 2004 06:58 PM

Thanks a lot for your answer....... Will you post an other map after the 11pm forecast from the National Weather Service?

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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: Sats... [Re: wxman007]
      #23414 - Thu Sep 02 2004 07:01 PM

Quote:

I'm not sure what floater you are referring to, but the 2232Z GOES-12 image clearly shows a warm spot which is likely a (re)developing eye.


\

It also looks like its back to a more westerly track. So I guess that it was big wobble today .

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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