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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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jth offline
Unregistered




Re: Folks, please... [Re: wxman007]
      #23569 - Fri Sep 03 2004 12:35 AM

Sat presentation is really beginning to improve. I would be very surprised if she doesn't strengthen a bit now.

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
I was wrong.... it is moving as forecast by NHC [Re: wxman007]
      #23570 - Fri Sep 03 2004 12:38 AM

Found another satellite that shows the slow but steady movement of Frances off to the WNW to NW.... I would estimate around 300 degrees or so.... you can follow the eye in this loop....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: Folks, please... [Re: Unregistered User]
      #23571 - Fri Sep 03 2004 12:39 AM

Honestly, and I am not trying to downplay your theory, I haven't heard anything like that..not saying it didn't or doesn't happen, but generally atmospheric moisture in the broad sense has little effect on track. Maybe I'm just dumb!

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
0304Z Vortex message [Re: Frank P]
      #23572 - Fri Sep 03 2004 12:41 AM

0355Zpressure up a little to 953mb.
0219Z pressure reading was 950mb.
Maximum flight level winds, this flight leg were 92kts-East Quadrant.

Edited by danielw (Fri Sep 03 2004 12:43 AM)


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FromUpNorth
Unregistered




Re: Folks, please... [Re: wxman007]
      #23573 - Fri Sep 03 2004 12:41 AM

More likely I'm trying to piece together information and got it confused!

Thanks very much for you replies. I appreciate the site and your time.


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HCRay
Unregistered




Re: Folks, please... [Re: jth offline]
      #23574 - Fri Sep 03 2004 12:41 AM

We ALL try to over-react on minor fluctuaions. The storm should have always stayed at CAT 4. Even if it did acutally warrant a CAT 3 rating the resulting letdown in the general population into a false sense of security would at least be negligent if not criminal on the part of a trained profesional or amatuer hobbyist. The function of both is to alert and motivate people to take protective measures early enough to save lives not take the next exit and turn back to their home on the coast..

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida
Re: salt lick [Re: Clark]
      #23575 - Fri Sep 03 2004 12:41 AM

That was a great explanation, Clark..thank you. I still have one more question:

Will the slow movement increase the likelihood of intensification? If it was moving at a faster clip, I would think not. But my non-meteorological scientific brain (which has a mind of its own) wants to think that the slower the storm moves, the higher the chances are that it would be able to re-intensify. Is forward speed not an issue in relation to this?

Thanks!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Here's the rub... [Re: jth offline]
      #23576 - Fri Sep 03 2004 12:43 AM

>>> I do not mean to scare, hype or otherwise meteorologically demogouge

Alex, don't worry, the points made were not directed at you.

This is a teaching & learning forum, so far be it from me to try to have novice questions be avoided...heck..I'm about one step above novice status...

The point trying to be made is that with the strained bandwidth of the forum, questions such as "how strong will the winds be over my house?" or "should I evacuate now (after actually taking this long to decide)" are not best answered on these boards...as JK advised much earlier today (really yesterday), one should consult one's local NWS. There's probably a link on this site but if not, click here and then click on the nearest city to you. They will have local storm reports and warnings.

If your novice question involves meterology, JK & Clark (if they're on board) or other semi pros can probably answer it. If your question involves something like finding storm surge reports, local reports, shelter locations, past storm tracks, etc., then I can probably find it for you. Don't hesitate to ask, just think whether it's a matter of life and limb (ie, go to NWS) or info.

Also, Mike & John have gone to incredible lengths to supply all the links you will need on either the "Storm Links" section of the site or the main page, so check there first. If you can't get your question answered, then post it here. We'll do our best.

Everyone be safe!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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jth offline
Unregistered




Re: Folks, please... [Re: wxman007]
      #23577 - Fri Sep 03 2004 12:43 AM

JK...Do you agree that strengthening is occuring as we speak. Sat presentation is much improved. Also, there is still a definite WNW movement. UIf this exits around Tampa and goes to the Biloxi to Pensacola area, what kind of strengthining would you expect?

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida
Re: I was wrong.... it is moving as forecast by NHC [Re: Frank P]
      #23578 - Fri Sep 03 2004 12:47 AM

Good sat pic. Looks like the reds are once again trying to wrap all the way around the center.

When this hurricane season is over, I'm going to take up a new hobby: watching grass grow. At least I'll be about 99.9% correct in my forecast that the grass will grow UPWARDS, not downwards.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Satellites [Re: jth offline]
      #23579 - Fri Sep 03 2004 12:48 AM

Please let me know what sites you are using for the satellite links, as all the ones that I have stopped updating at 0400Z.
When the Sun eclipsed the satellites.
Please check the time of the sat pictures you are looking at.

There will be interruptions in GOES-East imagery between 03:00 UTC and 06:00 UTC, and interruptions in GOES-West imagery between 07:00 UTC and 09:00 UTC due to the Fall 2004 Eclipse Season. Earth will fully "eclipse" each satellite during certain times, and we need to shut down the imager and sounder on each satellite to conserve power during these times. You can download detailed eclipse schedules at:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/eclipse.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/status.html



Edited by danielw (Fri Sep 03 2004 12:54 AM)


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida
Re: Here's the rub... [Re: LI Phil]
      #23580 - Fri Sep 03 2004 12:53 AM

Speaking of bandwidth, I would like to take this opportunity to thank Mike for all the hard work he's been putting in to keep this site up and running. Thanks to all...Mike, John, moderators....me....

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida
Re: Satellites [Re: danielw]
      #23581 - Fri Sep 03 2004 12:58 AM

Okay, I think this may be a *little* off topic, but it still relates to the weather.

Just when we say something here on the site, the WC met says the exact opposite. One person says "we may have a problem when it crosses the Gulfstream waters and reintensify before making landfall", then along comes another person saying "it's possible that it will but it's possible that it won't, too."

And I like Dave S., but is he on any medications?

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: salt lick [Re: Colleen A.]
      #23582 - Fri Sep 03 2004 01:00 AM

Thanks Colleen -- yes, the slower movement would tend to lead towards a greater chance of restrengthening. It would allow greater time for the storm to spin-up, despite the impacts of land. Were it moving faster, it'd hit land faster and lack that time to spin-up at all.

On the flip side however, the slower it moves, the more it will weaken over land, while a faster-moving storm is going to weaken less over land. This works pretty much for the reverse reasons as the over-water scenario.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: Folks, please... [Re: jth offline]
      #23583 - Fri Sep 03 2004 01:00 AM

not too sure that there is strengthening going on right now...latest vortex found 953 mb....there is new convection yes, and that might be a sign of strengthening, but it is unclear as of yet.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Colleen... [Re: wxman007]
      #23584 - Fri Sep 03 2004 01:03 AM

Yes, they put Dave on night shift.

Outer band now visible on Miami radar.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p19r0/si.kamx.shtml


Edited by danielw (Fri Sep 03 2004 01:05 AM)


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida
Re: Colleen... [Re: danielw]
      #23585 - Fri Sep 03 2004 01:16 AM

Wow...that's a great radar shot! Thanks!

Check you PM (Private mail)

Colleen

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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fred08
Unregistered




Re: think comeback..... [Re: wxman007]
      #23586 - Fri Sep 03 2004 01:17 AM

based on last sat...(0402)... i see a comeback and a center.../eye again....the CDO looked alot better than a fews hrs ago....it should be more north than thought.....also i notice there appears to be a breakdown of the ridge to the northwest to west and i am thinking a west movement is not far off....maybe at 280 or -/+ 10 and a speed of 5-8kts
landfall within 36-48 hrs
there is just to much warm water to the west and good upper level conditions for it not make it back to cat 4
recon is finding some interesting data too....


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bobbi
Unregistered




hey jason..and Phil and NHC [Re: wxman007]
      #23588 - Fri Sep 03 2004 01:20 AM

son in tallahassee wants to know if i am set for the storm..and.. "are they getting the storm there too?" lol

good luck later in the week

Phil... am sorry... think you were right..its taking at least 13 days from when we argued over it to make landfall. I was wrong. Are we going for 23?

And...as for NHC track.. its unreal perfect overall.

Printed out a map from some link online Patrick air force base I think.. had the 5 day chart on a dotted hurricane map where you could use it to track. I saved it to check out later.

It's later. The map is from 8/30.

I plotted the last several days backward and the current track lines up almost immediately just to the south of (left) of the other. Maybe .3 or .4 all the way just south of that track.

Unreal.. glad I saved it on impulse.
Good job.. course this forecast was before they pulled it to the left a bit and called for a bend back to the left and were forecasting a possible strike to the north.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida
Re: think comeback..... [Re: fred08]
      #23589 - Fri Sep 03 2004 01:23 AM

Wow, Fred...lots of good info there. I'm going to go charge up my battery on the puter so I can check back in a little while. Keep up the good work, everyone!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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