john03
Unregistered
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http://antares.esl.lsu.edu/AOI/AOI3_wv.html
now ? what's up....very small
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Humanriff
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 24
Loc: Davenport, FL
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
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john03
Unregistered
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I SEE A WEST MOVEMENT OF SOME SORTS
655z
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Did she take a left hook over the north end of Cat Island, or is it just the framing?
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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Frances is down to 120 mph with a pressure of 954 millibars--i dont think this is going to reintensify
Frances appears to be undergoing some heavy southwesterly wind shear that is only getting stronger, and may even work to push the storm north
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john03
Unregistered
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eye is btwn islands, it appears eye is trying to come back
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I need a few more new frames. She had been running east of the islands. Now she is over Cat Island, which would indicate a very slight westward jog.
On your loop, look at the outer eastern edge. From the 0345 shot to the 0645 shot it moves more west than north. In fact until I see more frames I would call it a due west move.
The eye is still on the questionable side. But she is over land.
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john03
Unregistered
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http://antares.esl.lsu.edu/AOI/AOI3_ir_loop.html
circle or orange means...... hmm
darker circle.....
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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we cant call it anything yet cause if you think about it,,,last frame was at 1145pm now 245am... recon had it at 24.7N and 75.7 near 2am and from 11pm - 2am it went .3 N and .4 w. so that is NW unless in last hour it went W,,then its a wobble, but hey, not saying it wont drift w or wnw now.
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fred08
Unregistered
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looks like i see a small center
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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well... here's to hoping falls apart... though has up now... suspect an upgrade at 5am
Perhaps too many little islands disrupting the windfield a tad? or perhaps the storm will get it's act together and regain it's lost power.
Night all,
Mark
--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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John, that's a really good link from LSU. The yellow is indicating cloud temperatures in the minus 70-75degree range.
The orange, what we are seeing now, minus 75-80 degrees.
Should we see red that would be in the minus80-85 degree range.
These temps are the estimated cloud top temps, and indicate that the clouds are growing higher. In other words, she could be intensifying, especially if the oranges and reds form a circle around the "eye" area.
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Timothy
Unregistered
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Dry/subsiding air appears to be near the center on the western side. Circulation being squeezed somewhat, and elongating E/W. Hopefully for Florida residents, this won't be just a temporary situation, and the storm will continue to disorganize and weaken. Rather deal with a cat 2 than a cat 4.
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Matt033
Unregistered
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It has formed by .
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fred08
Unregistered
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the ridge i see blocking her is fading on west to nw side..also it appeared to link to something south of cuba and carrib......that too has moved west or faded.... i think a west movement has begun...at 715z center appeared over a northern island tip....warren...just said the samething....twc.... and the wrap around the center in last few frames....looks to be cuttin btwn islands.....
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
210 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2004
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MIAMI-DADE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS DIRECTED AN EVACUATION FOR RESIDENTS IN EVACUATION ZONES A AND B...INCLUDING BARRIER ISLANDS...MOBILE HOMES...KEY BISCAYNE...MIAMI BEACH AND ALL LOW LYING AREAS AND COASTAL AREAS EAST OF U.S. 1. EVACUATION CENTERS IN MIAMI-DADE ARE OPEN.
PALM BEACH EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL PERSONS IN AREAS A AND B...INCLUDING MOBILE HOMES AND BARRIER ISLANDS AND THE LAKE SIDE OF THE HOOVER DIKE. PALM BEACH SHELTERS ARE OPEN.
BROWARD COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR PERSONS LIVING ON BARRIER ISLANDS AND ALL MOBILE HOMES. BROWARD SHELTERS ARE OPEN BUT EVACUEES ARE URGED TO STAY WITH FRIENDS OR RELATIVES.
GLADES COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF PEOPLE LIVING IN MOBILE HOMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTY. SHELTERS ARE OPEN.
HENDRY COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL LOCK DOWN THE FORT DENAUD BRIDGE ONCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS REACH THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. HENDRY COUNTY SHELTERS ARE OPEN FOR VOLUNTARY
EVACUATION.
COLLIER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS CLOSED SCHOOLS AND WILL OPEN SHELTERS AT 6 PM ON FRIDAY.
ALL SCHOOLS IN SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE CLOSED FRIDAY. CALL YOUR LOCAL COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HOTLINE NUMBERS AVAILABLE ON COMMERCIAL TELEVISION AND RADIO FOR DETAILED INFORMATION.
Edited by danielw (Fri Sep 03 2004 07:37 AM)
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john03
Unregistered
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look at lsu IR
725z
haven't seen that in awhile.....:)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...HURRICANE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
245 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2004
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A STATE OF EMERGENCY IS IN EFFECT IN MONROE COUNTY AND ALL COUNTY OFFICES ARE CLOSED. SCHOOLS ARE NOT IN SESSION TODAY SO THEY CAN BE CONVERTED TO SHELTERS.
THE COUNTY HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR NON-RESIDENTS AND VISITORS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY AT MILE MARKER 72. ALL RECREATIONAL VEHICLES SHOULD LEAVE THE KEYS.
AN EVACUATION WILL BE REQUIRED FOR MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS IN THE UPPER AND MIDDLE KEYS IF AND WHEN A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED. TOLLS HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED ON CARD SOUND ROAD. YOU MAY ALSO EVACUATE SOUTH TO THE LOWER KEYS.
SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 800 AM TODAY. SHELTERS ARE LOCATED AT:
CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL ON PLANTATION KEY.
STANLEY SWITLIK SCHOOL IN MARATHON.
GLYNN ARCHER SCHOOL IN KEY WEST.
RESIDENTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS SHOULD SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS PLEASE REMEMBER THAT HURRICANE TRACK FORECASTS CONTAIN SOME AMOUNT OF ERROR. CHECK FREQUENTLY FOR LATER UPDATES.
JOHN PENNEKAMP AND LONG KEY STATE PARTS ARE CLOSED.
Edited by danielw (Fri Sep 03 2004 07:46 AM)
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john03
Unregistered
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danielw what do you think that means?
 i see a NE eye wall forming....0732
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danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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What does what mean?
Gee I wish you were registered. I could PM you.
Try this loop of Miami radar, and look at the north and/ or westward motion.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml
Edited by danielw (Fri Sep 03 2004 07:56 AM)
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