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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Cathy
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 16
Loc: Florida Native - Bartow (Polk ...
Re: Frances Weakens a Bit [Re: Unregistered User]
      #23693 - Fri Sep 03 2004 10:24 AM

To: GlasserinD

If you want only the facts go to the NHC site. The value of this site is the infomed opinions of many are posted here. The reader must realize that these folks are providing real time thoughts based on their level of expertise. I, for one appreciate all who post (even you) and do not want only "the facts" -


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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: C40 [Re: clyde w.]
      #23694 - Fri Sep 03 2004 10:24 AM

is it me or is the storm stationary at the moment?

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 959
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Frances Weakens a Bit [Re: Unregistered User]
      #23695 - Fri Sep 03 2004 10:26 AM

THIS SITE IS LIKE FOX NEWS : WE REPORT WHAT WE THINK WE SEE, YOU DECIDE WHAT TO BELIEVE.
LOTS OF WHAT IS WRITTEN HERE PRECEDES BY HOURS SOMETIMES WHAT THE NHC EVENTUALLY PUBLISHES...THEY SEE IT TOO BUT BEING CAUTIOUS DON'T PUBLICALLY DISCUSS IT. MANY HERE ARE SKILLFUL ENOUGH TO PREDICT THE SHORT TERM WITH SOME ACCURACY.
FOR EXAMPLE THE NHC PUBLICALLY IS DISCUSSING THE RIDGE COMING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND ITS INFLUENCE ON THE STORM...HENCE THEY ARE KEEPING IT IN A LAND FALL UNFORTNATELY RIGHT OVER THE MARTIN ST.LUCIE COUNTY AREA...
WHAT WE KNOW IS AS THAT RIDGE EMERGES AND MOVES EASTWARD IT WILL BLOCK THE NORTHWARD PATH OF THE STORM...NOBODY EXCEPT THE SCIENTISTS CAN SAY HOW MUCH THIS INFLUENCE WILL LIKELY BE...BUT VISUALLY NOW THERE IS NO EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST THAT THE STORM WILL DEVIATE FROM THE OFFICIAL TRAC.
IT IS AS FOOLISH TO WISHCAST THAT THE STORM WILL DEVIATE TOTALLY AWAY FROM THE STATE AS IT IS TO SPECULATE THAT IT WILL RESULT IN THE WORST. JUST BECAUSE SOMEONE HERE WRITES SOMETHING YOU DON'T LIKE DON'T CRITICISE THAT PERSON OR DEMEAN THE PERSON'S ABILITY FOR THAT ALONE. THEY MAY BE RIGHT.
THIS SITE IS FOR FUN..AND OFTEN GOOD INFORMATION...USE IT IN THAT SPIRIT AND ENJOY,OR NOT AS YOU WISH.

--------------------
doug


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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: C40 [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #23696 - Fri Sep 03 2004 10:27 AM

never mind..you can see the center on miami long range radar....looks like WNW to NW..on track? (of course as soon as I link this site it will be overloaded)

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml


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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: C40 [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #23697 - Fri Sep 03 2004 10:27 AM

Quote:

is it me or is the storm stationary at the moment?




I expect movt to be around 5mph on the next adv. Looks like it's putting on the breaks..

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Frances changing direction [Re: Unregistered User]
      #23698 - Fri Sep 03 2004 10:29 AM

When they slow down, they change direction. As indicated by the National Hurricane Center, and anyone in the know, to guess on the strength of a hurricane is just that...a guess. They still don't understand enough about hurricanes to "see" why and when and how a hurricane jumps from cat 3 to 5.

So...anyone who thinks this weakening trend means we are out of the woods...better think again. I remember when hurricane Frederic rambled through the Caribbean..hitting all the land it could...and wobbled into the gulf as a tropical storm. Well, it finished as a strong 3 into Mobile, in 1979.

This storm is stalling a bit, and will enter warmer waters. The real interesting thing we can be sure of...is that we can't be sure of anything.

I have seen them die out at this stage, and restrengthen....

so if someone posts that they think it will get back to a cat 5, and others are offended...then those offended need to watch Mary Poppins or something like that....

the reality, is that anything is possible, and this is a forum designed for hobbiests...who's opinions are varied and worth what all of our opinions are....next to nothing...

In all of this, if we all learn more about these fascinating systems...well, then, that is the point. For by learning more, we then can take wiser action....(like evacuating half of Florida?)


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Hurricaned
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 14
Re: Frances Weakens a Bit [Re: doug]
      #23699 - Fri Sep 03 2004 10:29 AM

Quote:

THIS SITE IS LIKE FOX NEWS : WE REPORT WHAT WE THINK WE SEE, YOU DECIDE WHAT TO BELIEVE.
LOTS OF WHAT IS WRITTEN HERE PRECEDES BY HOURS SOMETIMES WHAT THE NHC EVENTUALLY PUBLISHES...THEY SEE IT TOO BUT BEING CAUTIOUS DON'T PUBLICALLY DISCUSS IT. MANY HERE ARE SKILLFUL ENOUGH TO PREDICT THE SHORT TERM WITH SOME ACCURACY.
FOR EXAMPLE THE NHC PUBLICALLY IS DISCUSSING THE RIDGE COMING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND ITS INFLUENCE ON THE STORM...HENCE THEY ARE KEEPING IT IN A LAND FALL UNFORTNATELY RIGHT OVER THE MARTIN ST.LUCIE COUNTY AREA...
WHAT WE KNOW IS AS THAT RIDGE EMERGES AND MOVES EASTWARD IT WILL BLOCK THE NORTHWARD PATH OF THE STORM...NOBODY EXCEPT THE SCIENTISTS CAN SAY HOW MUCH THIS INFLUENCE WILL LIKELY BE...BUT VISUALLY NOW THERE IS NO EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST THAT THE STORM WILL DEVIATE FROM THE OFFICIAL TRAC.
IT IS AS FOOLISH TO WISHCAST THAT THE STORM WILL DEVIATE TOTALLY AWAY FROM THE STATE AS IT IS TO SPECULATE THAT IT WILL RESULT IN THE WORST. JUST BECAUSE SOMEONE HERE WRITES SOMETHING YOU DON'T LIKE DON'T CRITICISE THAT PERSON OR DEMEAN THE PERSON'S ABILITY FOR THAT ALONE. THEY MAY BE RIGHT.
THIS SITE IS FOR FUN..AND OFTEN GOOD INFORMATION...USE IT IN THAT SPIRIT AND ENJOY,OR NOT AS YOU WISH.




Hey Doug, have you noticed that you can toggle all caps with the "Caps Lock" key?


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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 185
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: Frances Weakens a Bit [Re: Unregistered User]
      #23700 - Fri Sep 03 2004 10:32 AM

Quote:

Agent B: Do you have any reason to believe that there is a possiblity that flager and daytona beaches may lift the evacuation status any time today? Thanks Tammy




No, because they don't want a large number of people who have already left trying to get back to their homes and further snarling traffic. Also, Frances still has not made landfall so her course is still very much uncertain at this point in time. I remember reading on this site a while back that one thing to watch is to how the models "trended" from run to run. For a few days they seemed to track Frances north in the morning, south in the afternoon with each run. For the past few runs most have forecasted landfall from Melbourne south, with just a few still showing an almost due north movement(near impossible at this point IMHO). I just don't seen any places from South Florida all the way up to Flagler lifting or modifying evacuation orders 1)because of the huge problems it would cause on the roadways and 2)because Frances still has not made landfall. Hope that helps some.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 959
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Frances Weakens a Bit [Re: Hurricaned]
      #23701 - Fri Sep 03 2004 10:35 AM

Yes, but I was excited and it seemd to work for the moment.

--------------------
doug


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JaxBeachMan
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 2
Re: Frances Weakens a Bit [Re: AgentB]
      #23702 - Fri Sep 03 2004 10:36 AM

What are the chances that they order more evacuations up the coast (St johns or Duval County)?

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Saie
Unregistered




Re: Frances Weakens a Bit [Re: Unregistered User]
      #23703 - Fri Sep 03 2004 11:02 AM

Anyone with a brain will know that this forum is for those who wish to sort thru data and form a better concept of what is occuring than is provided to the general public. I have found it priceless. And every 'general public' advisory has followed the consensus here pretty closely. Owning a home here and being concerned about it from Dallas it is one thing, finding yourself in the crosshairs is another thing entirely. These guys deserve better, much better, than your critisism.

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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: Frances Weakens a Bit [Re: Unregistered User]
      #23704 - Fri Sep 03 2004 11:10 AM

i for one like to hear these peoples forecast and reasoning for them and hope they continue doing so. if you want the facts read the newspaper tomorrow. its not wrong because it is after the fact. btw before you belittle all "our mets and professionals" at least have your facts right. they have been posting here for quite some time and their forecasts have some merit to them. they have been right alot more than wrong.

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mbfly
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 117
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
Re: Frances Weakens a Bit [Re: doug]
      #23705 - Fri Sep 03 2004 11:11 AM

Quote:

JUST BECAUSE SOMEONE HERE WRITES SOMETHING YOU DON'T LIKE DON'T CRITICISE THAT PERSON OR DEMEAN THE PERSON'S ABILITY FOR THAT ALONE. THEY MAY BE RIGHT.
THIS SITE IS FOR FUN..AND OFTEN GOOD INFORMATION...USE IT IN THAT SPIRIT AND ENJOY,OR NOT AS YOU WISH.




I second that !!! Apparantly GlasserinD doesn't understand that the internet is like his TV......... if he doesn't like what he is seeing, he can turn the channel or just not watch at all ! If he's already read it and doesn't like it, someone needs to tell him what the delete key if for ! Personally, I found this site to be nothing less than invaluable for the past several years !!

Just my .02


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Frances Weakens a Bit [Re: JaxBeachMan]
      #23706 - Fri Sep 03 2004 11:12 AM

As of right now, there does not appear to be any reason to call for any additional evacuations. However, with the storm slowing and possibly stalling, anything is possible right now. The one saving grace in this is that the slow motion assures time to make decisions.

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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: Frances Weakens a Bit [Re: Rasvar]
      #23707 - Fri Sep 03 2004 11:16 AM

wife told me TWC said they were moving the warnings farther north. also said JAX would make decesion on evactions tomorrow. this was probably expected as it isn't moving fast and still doesn't look to be going as far west as expected

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khw
Unregistered




Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #23708 - Fri Sep 03 2004 11:23 AM

will the hurricane reach clear water?

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 959
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Frances Weakens a Bit [Re: andy1tom]
      #23709 - Fri Sep 03 2004 11:24 AM

THE 11:00 DISCUSSION CONTINUES TO FEATURE THE DETIORATION OF THE CORE OF THE STROM DUE TO SHEAR WHICH WAS EVIDENT ON THE WV YESTERDAY AS IT TURNED NNW FOR A WHILE... IT ALSO IMPLIES TWO THREE DAYS OVER FLORIDA???

--------------------
doug


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SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL
Unregistered




Re: Frances Weakens a Bit [Re: doug]
      #23711 - Fri Sep 03 2004 11:29 AM

The feeder bands arre moving in on me right now(pompano beach)...winds kicked up and very gloomy out. This is gonna be a strong storm. Everybody ..please be prepared. God bless us all

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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Frances Weakens a Bit [Re: doug]
      #23712 - Fri Sep 03 2004 11:29 AM

I am looking at this storm and I see the shear, but also see what I think is the storm trying to wind it self back up.. Am I seeing things.

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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maxwellcfl
Unregistered




Re: Frances Weakens a Bit [Re: doug]
      #23713 - Fri Sep 03 2004 11:30 AM

why isn't the NHC web updated for 11am on web yet ?

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