LadyStorm
Weather Guru
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Posts: 154
Loc: United States
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Kudos to you guys!!! This site is priceless and has very valuable information. I have learned so much since visiting this site for the past 2 years. Keep up the fantastic job!!! 
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JUST BECAUSE SOMEONE HERE WRITES SOMETHING YOU DON'T LIKE DON'T CRITICISE THAT PERSON OR DEMEAN THE PERSON'S ABILITY FOR THAT ALONE. THEY MAY BE RIGHT.
THIS SITE IS FOR FUN..AND OFTEN GOOD INFORMATION...USE IT IN THAT SPIRIT AND ENJOY,OR NOT AS YOU WISH.
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"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"
..........Albert Einstein
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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Frances weakened very quickly and rather unexpectedly, and it still may miss the coast if it continues to turn north (if it heads straight in any direction, such as NW, it will hit FL)
TWC said that the 115 mph winds may be generous, and I personally think the chances are very good that this will drop below 115 at landfall, possibly to Cat I (although not very probable)
also interesting to listen to the wording they use on
if the winds decrease 30 mph in 12 hours, it is "slight" weakening
if the winds were to increase 30 mph in 12 hours, it would be "rapid" intensification
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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IN ADDITION...SOME UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY CREATING SOME SHEAR OVER THE HURRICANE
DISRUPTING THE CLOUD PATTERN. THIS MEANS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS
WEAKENED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 100 KNOTS.
i don't think these winds are suppose to last much longer. heard last nite that they would be there for about 20 hours and that was on the 10pm weather
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palmetto
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 23
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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In the latest loops, does it seem to anyone else that the eye may be peeking back out?
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LadyStorm
Weather Guru
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Posts: 154
Loc: United States
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You are not seeing things, according to the NWS in Melborne in their 10:30 update:
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1025 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2004
...MAJOR HURRICANE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA...
.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD TOPS INVOF THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HAVE SHOWN SOME
COOLING IN RECENT SAT IMAGERY...INDICATIVE OF A CONVECTIVE BURST
AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING
This coupled with the warmer waters in the gulf and its slowed speed, have the potential to intensify this storm.
MaryAnn
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I am looking at this storm and I see the shear, but also see what I think is the storm trying to wind it self back up.. Am I seeing things.
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"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"
..........Albert Einstein
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BillD
User
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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Unfortunately the Miami doppler radar has been down again since just after 10:00. Bryan Norcross mentioned it when discussing the 11:00 AM advisory with the . This puts the at a disadvantage, but they said they are using radar and other data from the recon flights as much as anything else. Brings me back to Andrew, although the radar stopped working then when it blew off the roof.
Bill
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PAULA
Unregistered
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PORT SAINT LUCIE FL...NO ONE HAS MENTIONED OUR TOWN ON THE NEWS ALTHOUGH WE HAVE 130,00 PEOPLE. MOST OF MY NEIGHBORS HAVE HIT THE ROAD. WE ARE BOARDED UP EXCEPT FOR 1 SLIDING GLASS DOOR WHICH WE WILL BOARD JUST PRIOR TO THE HIT. IF IT KEEPS GOING LIKE THE MODELS WE MAY GET A DIRECT BLOW HERE. IN ANY CASE IT WILL BE VERY STRONG FOR US. IT IS ALREADY GETTING WINDY OUTSIDE. MY NEIGBORHOOD LOOKS LIKE A GHOST TOWN WITH ALL THE HOMES BOARDED. VERY FEW NEIGHBORS TO TALK WITH. THE GAS STATIONS ARE MOSTLY OUT OF GAS, WE ARE GASSED  UP, IN CASE.
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
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I may be new to posting here, but I would like to put some things into perspective. First, I have been an amateur forecaster (High School, College, and hobby) since I was a little kid, over 30 years ago. Back then, the computer models were much more inferior than the ones of today, and there has been a tremendous improvement in all forecasts. Will it ever be 100% accurate? No. The atmosphere is too complex, data over the ocean is more sparse, and there are too many variables that can occur many miles away from a storm that can have downstream effects. Also, hurricanes are on a smaller scale than mid-latitude cyclones, which makes it more difficult.
In situations like this, someone is always going to be scared and not see its worst. I would rather have that, than not be scared, and take a direct hit. Putting myself in the shoes of a forecaster, lives are at stake, and I would want to do everything I can to prevent the loss of them. If that means warning an area too large, so be it. Again, I am not affilliated with any forecasters, just my perspective.
I certainly hope the new ETA is right and it keeps the thing offshore until it gets farther north, because I feel it will have a difficult time regenerating due to its large circulation encountering land.
Many of us here (I think) like to like to try to learn, and challenge ourselves to hit a forecast. The final answer to any weather forecasts lies with the NWS.
Having said all that, I wish everyone in the path well, and prayers, and peace.
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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NWS Melbourne mentions this in their discussion this morning,
you can see the cloud tops are cooling on the IR. Has anyone looked at the shear tendency chart yet, it shows it as decreasing, so perhaps slight intensification is possible.
CLOUD TOPS INVOF THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HAVE SHOWN SOME COOLING IN RECENT SAT IMAGERY...INDICATIVE OF A CONVECTIVE BURST AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING.
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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GlasserinD.... I am sure you have it all figured out, and that's why your complaining.... Nature is never easy to predict. There are tons of variables all changing at the same time, which makes it challenging for scientists to figure out anything. It is especially difficult to predict what large, powerful storms are going to do. Some people that post here are experts, others are just interested. However, just because someone is an expert in a field does not give them the ability to predict the future. Scientists look at all the available data and then make reasonable predictions based upon that. Unfortunately, it's the best we can do. Most of the comments on this page have all been very reasonable explanations for what could happen.
Terra
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
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I don't know if anyone caught this, but Geraldo Rivera is/was in a hurricane hunter, and reported that it was moving 310 deg. at 8.5 knots (10ish I guess), and I think he mentioned the pressure had dropped a bit. I don't recall hearing or reading that elsewhere yet, so I would like to verify it.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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the hurricane is NOT strengthening, and the recon plane in its latest report, as noted on , said that the plane was only able to find 105 mph winds
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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I will assume, Glasser, that you are referring to me as a "so-called" met. What is your problem with us? There are several mets on here who just give their time (at the busiest time for any of them) to help our our neighbors. We aren't paid for this, nor do we want to be. We aren't spreading goom and doom...we are attempting to pass along the best information that we have...sometimes we don't have all the answers, and sometimes we get it wrong...its the nature of the business.
I'll tell you like I tell my viewers who complain when their soap operas are covered up when I have tornado warnings on the air...every computer in the world has an off switch.
Use it.
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Jason Kelley
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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First rainband just went through. Winds gusted to 32 mph. Power has already gone out twice only to come back on. Hopefully I can stay online.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Sometimes the wind increases precede pressure drops. So you both could be right.. The barometric pressure could be dropping, just not showing in the winds as of yet.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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pressure is up to 960
also, dry air is wrapping around the western edge of the center
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Rabbit, I never said the Hurricane was strengthening at this time, i said that maybe some intensification is possible, due to increasing cooler cloud tops and decreasing wind shear. Or at least i never meant to imply the hurricane was currently strengthening.
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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well said jason. thanks for your thoughts on the board. we know you are busy. guess the mets in texas never get a forecast wrong.
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Response to stick to the facts. I do, I always use the 's track on the main articles, but mention other models to better realize the "Cone of error" is just that. isn't perfect, but they are generally the best.
The facts are on the left, the current position and windspeed, Anything more than that is a guess. This is here to get and discuss information about the possible future of the system and to make your own decisions and even question what you see if needed. If you have any doubt whatsoever, then take the word of the National Hurricane Center. That's what I do.
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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 90
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Remember these points that have been posted...
1) sheer has lessened
2) Hurricane is entering warmer waters
3) Convection has increased, with resultant cooler cloud tops
4) Pressure is dropping
IMHO...this will re-energize to a 4 at landfall...
on a general heading of wwnw...punish MIami...
then into the Gulf as a cat 2-3....
and window too far out to tell ....
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